13 Days Until Oscar. Three Questions
Monday, February 13, 2017 at 11:30AM 
OSCAR VOTING HAS NOW OFFICIALLY BEGUN! The Academy now has just eight days to make the tough choices like Denzel vs Casey, La La Land versus everything else for the craft prizes, The Salesman vs Toni Erdmann (all of which were just discussed on the podcast), Mahershala vs Dev, and so on.
I am not a superstitious person. It annoys me that 13th floors do not exist in buildings. I have walked under ladders if it was the quicket path to get somewhere. I welcome black cats crossing my path because I love cats of all colors. But let's play along with the #13 being unlucky for the purposes of today's Oscar countdown.
Answer me these questions three...
• What is the worst possible outcome for Oscar night that you actually fear?
• Who do you think has been unluckiest with Oscar over the years?
• If one of the nominees accidentally breaks a mirror on Oscar night and gets seven years of bad luck who would you have it be?
FYC, Oscars (16), Punditry, polls
Reader Comments (65)
• What is the worst possible outcome for Oscar night that you actually fear?
Viola is the only nonwhite person to win their category.
• Who do you think has been unluckiest with Oscar over the years?
Glenn Close
• If one of the nominees accidentally breaks a mirror on Oscar night and gets seven years of bad luck who would you have it be?
Mel Gibson
Tough questions.
1) La La Land clean sweep.
2) Roger Deakins.
3) If the mirror break happens before the ceremony, which would include the ceremony itself in the bad luck: Damian Chazelle.
And then /3rtful made me consider a Hacksaw Ridge clean sweep...
1) LLLand clean sweep or Casey Affleck winning and getting a standing ovation.
2) Glenn Close or Benning.
3) Casey Affleck
1. Life, Animated winning Best Documentary Feature
2. Roger Deakins
3. Mel Gibson
La La Land was exceptional and made me feel so ecstatic, but upon second and third viewing of the film I realize that it is not deserving of that many Oscars. It's a fun and exciting movie, but not necessarily one that deserves Oscar recognition. What makes it different than say a Marvel film or franchise film?
I need Denzel to win over Casey, Viola to triumph (although preferably Octavia since she is an actually supporting role), Barry Jenkins to win Best Director, Moonlight to win Best Picture, Isabelle Huppert to win Best Actress, and Dev Patel to win Best Supporting Actor.
Unfortunately, I only see 2 of the above actually happening.
1) La La Land sets record for most wins.
2) Roger Deakins who keeps losing while doing phenomenal work
3) Mel Gibson. If it was not current year nominee it would be Inarritu.
• What is the worst possible outcome for Oscar night that you actually fear?
Mel Gibson being honored for his gorefest
• Who do you think has been unluckiest with Oscar over the years?
Sigourney Weaver - she lost two acting categories on the same night
• If one of the nominees accidentally breaks a mirror on Oscar night and gets seven years of bad luck who would you have it be?
It would be easy to just pick Gibson, but I'm actually going with Jeff Bridges. He's a good actor but not a 7 time nominee talent so I think he's had enough good luck when it comes to Oscar.
When this happens: "And the Oscar goes to....OMG, I can't believe it, we have a tie...'Audition' and 'City of Stars,' La La Land!" Ryan Gosling will literally wet his pants.
On a somewhat unrelated note, Ron Howard and Brian Grazer are now only a Tony away from an EGOT. They won a Grammy last night for their Beatles documentary.
1.- La La La wins everything
2.- Annette Close or Glenn Bening
3.- Really?
1. La La Land winning 12+ Oscars
2. Kevin O'Connell
3. Mel Gibson
1. LaLa Land winning 13 Oscars
2. Roger Deakins
3. Mel Gibson
1. LA LA LAND wins everything except Actor which Creepy Affleck wins.
2. Roger Deakins & Thomas Newman.
3. Emma Stone. I enjoyed her turn in LLL and she is very pretty, but she took a white-washed role and in an industry where my Asian sisters are struggling for roles, I find this absolutely unforgivable. The fact that she puts on this 'aw shucks' demeanour and says disingenuous things like dedicating her Globe win to 'anyone who's ever had the door shut in their face', when that's exactly what she enabled with her yellowface in ALOHA, also chaffs my ass.
Emma Stone as Best Actess and Denzel for Best Actor,I just did not connect with those 2 this year but have liked them before and will in the future.
Someone acting wise who has been unlucky is Sigourney Weaver.
Kenneth Lonergan.
1. I think this is a good year either way, but Arrival and Moonlight walking away empty-handed (quite possible) would be sad.
2. John Williams. Just kidding, Kevin O'Connell
3. Mel
The worst case scenario will almost certainly happen (La La Land wins 10+ Oscars, Emma Stone beats Portman and Huppert), so I'll likely not be watching.
1. Not sure I fear anything at this point, but the coming LLL sweep will be unfortunate.
2. I had to put in a word for my man Ralph Fiennes here!
3. Gibson.
1. Mahershala not winning/Moonlight being completely shut-out.
2. Ralph Fiennes.
3. Gibson all the way.
1. La La Land sweeping. I love the movie, one of my favourites of the year, but people online are already venomous about the movie, and I am not sure if it deserves more just because the industry decides to award it
2. Annette Bening for being a serious contender a few times but never winning. Missing altogether this year.
3. Kind of a mean question, lol. Probably Hacksaw Mel.
1 - La La Land win 12+ Oscars. Jesus Christ, I love this movie, but please NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Mel Gibson winning director.
Sting winning original song (os La La Land or Moana here!).
2 - In order: Glenn Close, Roger Deakins, Ralph Fiennes, Gary Oldman, Sigourney Weaver, Michelle Pfeiffer, Albert Finney, Thomas Newman, Laika animated films, Michael Mann, Mike Leigh, PTA.
3 - Mel Gibson.
And... Meryl Streep. Sorry guys and girls, but I miss the Old Meryl of Adaptation - The Hours - The Devil Wears Prada.
Not nominated this year: David O. Russel 😈 Quentin Tarantino😈, Harvey Weinstein & bro 😈, Jen Lawrence (ops!), Bradley Cooper😈, Zellweger 😈, Inarritu 😈.
I don't mind Ali losing 'cos Rhodes was better anyway and my other 2 faves Fiennes and Grant were snubbed..
I have to add more names in the list:
2 - Ian McKellen, Hugh Grant, Peter Weir (!!!!!!), Ed Harris (!!!!!), John Goodman (!!!!!), Amy Adams.
3 - Not nominated: Oprah 😈
This was my much-needed Monday a.m. LOL moment. (When I think of "Old Meryl," it's Shakespeare in the Park/Holocaust/Kramer vs Kramer/Deer Hunter/Manhattan/Sophie's Choice that come to mind...)
markgordon, curious why Kenneth Lonergan?
1. It'd be Gibson, but I can't fathom that happening so...La La Land breaks Titanic's record.
2. Patricia Neal
3. Mel Gibson...I mean, come on-make it a challenge here. If not just from this year, James Woods maybe?
1. Washington beats Affleck, although if La La Land wins screenplay, well, ugh.
2. In terms of people who are still working, Glenn Close, although I certainly see the case for Sigourney Weaver and Deakins.
3. Gibson. No contest.
Worst possible outcome: Hacksaw sweeps.
Unluckiest with Oscar: Mia Farrow, no contest.
And I can't wish ill on anyone, even Mel Gibson.
Cos he badly needs an editor and composer,he has no rhythm fora scene,that bid Michellemoment was a huge let down and she was not convincing me.
13 days until Oscar, 13 nominations, 0 wins: Roger Deakins, just sayin'.
What is the worst possible outcome for Oscar night that you actually fear?
13 Oscars winner La La Land. Moonlight, Arrival, Hidden Figures all go emptyhanded.
• Who do you think has been unluckiest with Oscar over the years?
John Travolta. Come on, it's got to be a joke. Lost for Saturday Night Fever and Pulp Fiction. Not nominated for Grease, Blow Out, Get Shorty, She's so Lovely, Primary Colors, Swordfish - say what you want, that monologue alone should have landed him a nom - , A Civil Action nor Hairspray... even his hilarious turn in From Paris with Love was among that year's best, saving a completely trashy film. And we all know why... he's creepy and devoted to scientology to the point he seems a caricature of himself in real life. But still, one of the greatest at work, a pity he makes so shitty choices lately.
• If one of the nominees accidentally breaks a mirror on Oscar night and gets seven years of bad luck who would you have it be?
Chazelle. Hated "Whiplash" and hated "La La Land", I thiought Damien thinks the audience is stupid. Despite his obvious skills and talent, he's a complete hack... astute and smart, of course.
1) Arrival is the unique film of 2016. No wins = utter devastation
2) Peter O' Toole. -> 8 nominations. -> Most nominated actor (male or female) to never win. -> Dead. -> Hands down, he's the unluckiest.
3) Mel Gibson. Hacksaw Ridge is a joke when compared to the rest of the competition and the non-nominated to-be classics of 2016. His movie is a prolonged Sully and a less intense Deepwater Horizon. Both of these slightly superior movies don't deserve BP noms. And rightfully, they don't have them.
Tom Cruise has been the unluckiest Oscar nominee. Now, hear me out...
Nominated in 1989 for Born on the Fourth of July. Everybody raves of his performance, but ran into the juggernaut that was Daniel Day-Lewis for My Left Foot. All five nominees would be worthy winners (Williams, Branagh, Freeman)
Nomianted in 1996 for Jerry Maguire. Arguably the performance he will be remembered for. Perfect combination of movie star and role. Runs into another juggernaut, this time in Geoffrey Rush for Shine. All five nominees would be worthy winners (Fiennes, Harrelson, Thornton).
Nominated in 1999 for Magnolia. Even Cruise haters love this performance. He gets across the board rave reviews but runs into the most jam-packed Supporting Actor lineup I can think of. If you remember, that year was considered a four-way race (between Cruise, Haley Joel Osment, Michael Clarke Duncan and eventual winner Michael Caine). Only Jude Law (who was fantastic) was the only one who wasn't considered a threat.
If someone came up to me and said, seriously, that Tom Cruise should have at least one Oscar, if not two...I would understand completely.
Who do you think has been unluckiest with Oscar over the years? My math might be off, but I think Thelma Ritter was nominated 10,205,521,742,116,326 times and never won. That is criminal.
Worst outcome: Hacksaw wins everything
Unluckiest: Kevin O'Connor. Over 20 nominations and no wins? That is the definition of unlucky
I don't really want to wish bad luck on anyone, but according to my friend in the art design guild, the art director or Passengers is an asshole. So, maybe him?
Worst outcome: Moonlight wins nothing.
2. Patricia Neal
She has a nice one out of two record in Best Actress. How is she unlucky with Oscar? It'd be pitying Tomei for becoming a pop culture pariah after her initial Oscar win. She has two additional nominations to prove she was no fluke.
La La Land matching or breaking the record for most wins (or, frankly, even breaking into double-digits) would be the worst thing for its reputation going forward. I love this film like no other, but I really hope the Academy doesn't go crazy with the wins, especially Screenplay and Sound. It would be a complete disservice to the year in film, which had a whole bunch of great films with work that should be recognized. If it does sweep, or gets more than ten, the backlash would be immediate and it would be LOUD, and the film would quite unfairly be slapped with "Worst Best Picture Ever" tags by many. This is my biggest fear for the night.
Although, if Gosling wins, I would be surprisingly okay with that.
• What is the worst possible outcome for Oscar night that you actually fear?
MOONLIGHT going home empty handed.
• Who do you think has been unluckiest with Oscar over the years?
To me unlucky does not mean "nominated and didn't win" but rather *never nominated*:
Donald Sutherland. Danny Glover. Ewan McGregor. Gong Li. Jeffrey Wright. John Goodman. Mia Farrow. Jeff Goldblum. Colin Farrell. Those are just the living actors.
• If one of the nominees accidentally breaks a mirror on Oscar night and gets seven years of bad luck who would you have it be?
Wishing bad luck, even on bad people, is bad karma.
Ben-I'll buy Cruise as unluckiest ever, though I don't think Duncan was a threat in 1999. It was a three-way race. But othrewise, yes, he's that rare person who may well have been in second three times.
Also, I want to amend my answer (I thought it was unluckiest nominee in life). Annette Bening is the unluckiest. You could make a legitimate argument that she was in second place all four times, and that she was in sixth place twice (Bugsy and 20th Century Women). I mean-what's it going to take people?
1. La La Land hitting 11 or more.
2. Donald Sutherland
3. Mel is the easy choice because he's a talentless piece of shit, but a mirror break relegating Chazelle to the Sundance has-beens crowd would be nice too.
1. Arrival not wining anything
2. Annette bening, Gary oldman, Amy adams, Roger deakins
Paul Outlaw - Old Meryl, right? Made me laugh too.
San FranCinema - agree; too much mean-spirited-ness in the world right now.
1. Arrival and Moonlight not winning anything
2. Living: Donald Sutherland, Spike Lee; Dead: Robert Altman, Irene Dunne, Cary Grant, Barbara Stanwyck
and Paul Outlaw said there was no La La Land backlash!!
Almost all of you guys say La La Land shouldn't sweep -
i.e. " because it's not THAT great after all!! "
But it WILL sweep the Oscars no doubt - minus Best Actor which will go to Casey Affleck.
Re: La La Backlash:
It's just natural that when something - a movie, TV show, music - get so much love, too much love and hype, then there'll inevitably come a come down - a movement against - a backlash.
1. La La Land sweep and Ali not winning Supporting Actor.
2. Hey CharlieG! The adorable Thelma Ritter. She didn't lose a gazillion times, but she did lose 6 times:
1950: All About Eve
1951: The Mating Season
1952: With a Song in My Heart
1953: Pick-Up on South Street
1959: Pillow Talk
1962: Birdman of Alcatraz
She could have been nominated too for Rear Window, Move Over, Darling, and Boeing Boeing
PS: Nobody mentioned Kevin O'Connell, who received his 21st nomination this year in the Sound categories!
3. Mel Gibson
1) No actor of color wins, and Moonlight, Fences and Hidden Figures collectively walk away empty-handed, reigniting the firestorm of #OscarsSoWhite
2) Deborah Kerr, because she HAD that Oscar won, finally...it was in her hands. Then Liz had that tracheotomy. Damnedest way to lose your sixth and final Oscar bid.
3) Mel Gibson
I still don't buy a backlash, because I'm sure there are other people besides me commenting in this thread who liked/loved LLL but from the beginning were more enthusiastic about Moonlight/Manchester/Arrival/[your film here] and don't want to see them steamrolled by a sweep. (Not to mention the people who just weren't that crazy about LLL, as I'm sure they exist, too.)
To me, a backlash implies a major turning against something (because of its popularity), and certainly in larger numbers than a segment of the TFE community.
But maybe I'm wrong.
1. Mahershala loses
2. Deakins, but Amy Adams is starting to make her case. Obviously Kerr and Bening aren't far off either.
3. Hard to answer anything but Gibson.
Several people mentioned Kevin O'Connell.