Actor Chart Updates: Who will repeat?
Sunday, July 30, 2017 at 1:25PM 
Having just had a lively discussion about Best Actress and Supporting Actress possibilities, let us turn our attention to the men.
Though I'm not currently predicting any women from last year's 20 honored thespians to repeat this year, it's not uncommon for that to happen. So let's try out a Denzel Washington post-Fences prediction and see how it feels. He's headling Roman Israel, Esq. a Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler) picture about a lawyer in crisis and conflict with his new law firm. Colin Farrell co-stars. The film was called Inner City during filmmaking but now goes by the name of Denzel's character. The film takes place in the 1970s so Denzel has a fro!
1970s are popular in cinema this year. Also working early 1970s looks this year are the stars of two true stories. Spielberg's The Papers is already causing a buzzy stir. Less discussed but also scheduled to open this season is the Ridley Scott drama All the Money in the World about the famous kidnapping of a young man from a wealthy family (busy actor Charlie Plummer). Kevin Spacey is the grandfather billionaire who won't pay the ransom, Michelle Williams is the mother, and Mark Wahlberg is a CIA operative but it's tough to know who is lead or supporting or whatnot since it sounds like an ensemble picture. Incidentally the role played by Michelle Williams was originally offered to Angelina Jolie and then they sought out Natalie Portman. It's tough to know what they were looking for for that role (beyond stardom) because those three actresses have such different onscreen personas and talents.
Both of these movies could easily be something closer to box office hopefuls than gold-statue hunters given their mainstream stars and plots but you never know with holiday season releases. Check out the updated charts and report back...
ACTOR CHART UPDATES
Denzel & Daniel & Tom (all multiple Oscar winners!) on the rise
SUPPORTING CHART UPDATES
A ton of movement here since we still know relatively nothing about what might happen in this category yet. Upward movement for mother!'s Javier Bardem, Call Me By Your Name's Michael Stuhlbarg, and Dunkirk star Fionn Whitehead who will next be seen in a big role opposite Emma Thompson in The Children Act.
Reader Comments (41)
Is there really no chance Ray Romano can get any of that Big Sick heat Holly Hunter seems right in line for? That whole film looks perfect for the Globes, and he has such a following from the eighty TV shows he's made/been on. I get men in rom coms in any capacity are less likely than women are, but leaving him completely off the list feels weird.
Ooh yeah All the Money in the World sounds troubled. This line has me looking sideways: "Kevin Spacey is the grandfather billionaire who won't pay the ransom, Michelle Williams is the mother, and Mark Wahlberg is a CIA operative." So we have Spacey as a rich arrogant guy who won't give in, Williams is "the mother" and Wahlberg is a law-abiding tough guy? Hmm. Sounds terribly uninspired.
I'm hoping The Darkest Hour tanks. The trailer looks like a mess and the timing of the subject matter is questionable. This is unfortunate because I would love to see Oldman get his due. Fingers crossed for Showman.
catbaskets -- well, it's a true story. So those people all actually existed and that's what happened! I think it could be good but then Ridley Scott is super uneven. The screenplay was on the Black list which I have come to not think is a big deal but that still carries some kind of prestige since black list screenplays are supposed to be "really good screenplays that people haven't made into movies yet for some reason" ;)
Nick -- oops that was an error. I shall add him to the bottom.
If Gary Oldman gets the Oscar then it will be back to back woman beaters winning best actor...
Nathaniel--I meant more in terms of casting. Spacey and Wahlberg seem to be retreading what they've already done and Williams being "the mother" (hopefully the role is better written!) makes me shudder!
Drinking Gyllenhaal's Kool Aid too much it seems. Gala World Premiere at TIFF, relegated at Roadside Attraction and a dreadful release date... Yep Oscar "buzz", jan. Otherwise reasonable Best Actor predictions.
3/8: Denzel Washington
Just my 2 cents, but you have Tom Hanks too low, just like you put Streep too low on the best actress chart.
I hope the potential nominees in Tier 2 work out more than Tier 1 , the performances and movies seem more appealing. For now, I'm going to throwdown and predict Garfield, Chalamet, Hanks, Washington and Cumberbatch with Carell and Boseman as spoilers. I really hope Chalamet gets in for the sake of age/gender equality. We always have to analyse and compare the acting work of young actresses to veterans who have been in the game since before they were born, so it will be good to shake things up. Lucas Hedges getting in last year could mean this is possible.
I can't predict Supporting Actor until the Picture and Actor categories become clearer but I think Bardem and Shannon have a good chance.
I'm just loving the fact Williams has a new wig this time and it's ain't blonde.
Nathaniel, thank you for adding him! He so deserves recognition, but the longshot tier feels like the right place to put him. As is, both your actor lists feel like pretty strong predictions. I really liked Gyllenhaal in Okja (did you?) and if he can bring it in Stronger it'd be nice to see the momentum he's been making pay off. Otherwise it feels like it might dissipate soon.
I kind of like the pairs of actors working together: Ryan Gosling and Harrison Ford in "Bladerunner" and Hugh Jackman and Patrick Stewart in "Logan". Although I'd agree that Jackman's other movie is more Oscar usual.
I think Ryan Gosling is on a wave of current good will after two well-received and different roles last year in "The Nice Guys" and "La La Land". Denis Villeneuve, the "Bladerunner" director, is also putting out one terrific movie after another.
In Supporting Actor, Bill Nighy in "Their Finest" is worthy of a long shot mention.
The Leisure Seeker sounds all kinds of awful but I would dearly love to see Donald Sutherland, a true icon who's never had the recognition he deserved slip into the line up.
I am glad Denzel is going for two interesting projects in a row. Usually it taked 5 years after a great performance for he to be interested in acting again.
And hell yeah, he should have won for Fences.
cal roth: I don't know. I think Denzel is ridiculously intelligent in how he's shaped his career, and it's sort of worked out perfectly for him.
He gives great performances at will, particularly if you give him the material. But he can elevate a basic action thriller or popcorn movie as well. He's being doing that since Riccochet in the early 90's.
It's given him a filmography that's filled with gravitas, but also damned fun and entertaining at the same time. You wanna see Denzel act his ass off in a serious drama, you can go for Cry Freedom, The Hurricane, Glory, Flight, American Gangster, Malcolm X, Philidelphia, Fences. But he also just goes for pure entertainment with The Magnificent Seven, The Equalizer, The Book Of Eli, Deja Vu....and sometimes he manages to combine his entertainment pieces with incredible performances, like Training Day and Man On Fire.
I think he's got one the most envied careers in Hollywood, precisely because he's somehow worked out a way to do as many entertaining popcorn films as he wants, without losing a shred of his acting or artistic credibility. The Daniel Day-Lewis approach of making every single movie a "serious awards film" might get critics wet, but it's also one dimensional and not very fun.
It feels like his time as an action star is winding down, which is maybe why he's doing 2 character pieces in a row. It'll be interesting to see if he accepts he's getting too old for the action flicks, and goes much more into the dramatic roles over the next decade.
And yes, he should have easily beaten Affleck for Fences.
offred
Casey Affleck gave a much more nuanced and delicate performance and deserved the Oscar. Denzel was ACTING OUT LOUD again. Good for theatre, NOT for the Cinema.
Plus he has been delivering the same kind of obvious, epidermic ACTING performance for the last two decades.
Comparing him to incredibly superior actors, such as Day-Lewis, is hilarious.
I agree with Dg that Affleck's performance last year was slightly superior; it's rare that the the Academy goes for the quiet, non-showy performance that internalises most of the characters emotions instead of shouting them from the rooftops.
I liked Denzel's performance in Fences as well, and I think it was more of a 1A, 1B ranking in a lot of the Academy voters minds.
Dg: Opinions my friend. Everyone has them.
I thought the difficulty level of Denzel's performance was on a completely different level to what Affleck did (which was fine, for what it was). I don't see how it was even a close thing,
And Denzel is a better actor than Day-Lewis (in my opinion). More natural, more effortless, more honest. It's ironic that you go in on Denzel for ACTING OUT LOUD, when that's pretty much what Day-Lewis does all the time. He's technique is always fully on display, and he let's you know how hard he's working to give a performance. And that impresses the easily impressed a lot.
But there is no right or wrong in art. If you think Affleck deserved to win or Day-Lewis is "better" than Denzel, more power to you. I'm sticking to my opinions though.
Denzel was not ACTING OUT LOUD, he was playing perfectly a part that required that loudness.
Sometimes your part needs you to go big, and not a lot of actors have the bravura to play such parts. Denzel was fearless in Fences, as DDL has been fearless in most of his movies (but he's perfectly capable of discreet performances, like The Age of Innocence).
Casey was pretty good, but the technical challenge Denzel had to pull off was much more difficult than internalizing emotions.
Nathaniel -- Did you forget James Franco in The Disaster Artist?
cal roth; Perfectly stated in regards to Denzel's sublime and bravura work in Fences. Much more eloquent than I could have said it. It was a part that required that specific approach, and to see Denzel pull it off was breathtaking and truly special. As you said, the technical challenge of the role was light years ahead of what Affleck had to do.
I was a bit harsh on Day-Lewis (a wonderful actor), as he's done a lot of bravura work as well. I just tend to prefer the variety in Denzel's filmography over DDL's, which is over stuffed with prestige pieces.
"Casey Affleck gave a much more nuanced and delicate performance and deserved the Oscar. Denzel was ACTING OUT LOUD again. Good for theatre, NOT for the Cinema.
Plus he has been delivering the same kind of obvious, epidermic ACTING performance for the last two decades.
Comparing him to incredibly superior actors, such as Day-Lewis, is hilarious."
@Dg: DDL's most notorious role ("TWBB") was all about that. The milkshake speech is fucking cringe-worthy. This is such hypocritical comment.
Another vote for Denzel being too loud and overbearing in Fences. It was not even lose because Casey gave the more nuanced, realistic and complex performance. The idea that Denzel is better than Day-Lewis is also a joke that even Denzel would laugh at.
Denzel has two more Oscar nominations than Day-Lewis.
Denzel has a 1 Tony award for Best Actor. Day-Lewis doesn't any major theatre award.
Not only are they in the same general ball park in terms of awards haul, but Denzel as an actual stage great, is more well rounded actor. DDL quit theatre nearly 30 years ago because he saw his father's ghost or something (or was was scared of bad reviews. Take your choice).
Deadline also recently suggested that the world's greatest living actor was a straight toss-up between DDL and Denzel;
http://deadline.com/2017/06/daniel-day-lewis-denzel-washington-greatest-living-actor-star-wars-han-solo-ron-howard-phil-lord-chrisopher-miller-1202121504/
So apparently, the most widely read, respected and influential film and television Industry website doesn't think it's a "joke" to consider Denzel the greatest actor on the planet (and possibly better than Day-Lewis), but someone called "His Wife" does.
Well I guess that settles it then.LOL! Anyone acting as if DDL is on some other level to Denzel hasn't got the memo yet.
Wow, you are as loud and full of baloney as Denzel was in Fences. That was just a Deadline discussion and I believe one of the contributors had a different opinion and said Streep and Hanks were the two acting titans that would probably be missed the most. Deadline is a web blog/industry forum like any other. It's no authority, just people's opinion. Maybe you should listen more.
I would love if your currently predicted line-up - Bardem, Stuhlbarg, Mitchell, Shannon, Brown - were the actual nominees. Bardem is a true treasure, and one of the few people to have been nominated multiple times for foreign language performances - and he truly deserved his Oscar win; Stuhlbarg has been the most fascinating thing about so many projects; Mitchell is a talented star on the rise; Shannon is an actor who has only grown since his first nom in 'Revolutionary Road', which I thought was a bit of overacting - but since then he has just proven again and again how reliable he is, and missed out on well-deserved noms for 'Take Shelter' and '99 Homes' (I still haven't seen 'Nocturnal Animals', the movie as a whole seems somewhat odious to me); and Brown has sufficiently proven himself on TV, and is so easily convincing, that I think an Oscar nod is coming, even if not this year.
Also I read and re-read this quote, and thought it said Christopher Plummer, and thought I was missing a modifying clause:
"the Ridley Scott drama All the Money in the World about the famous kidnapping of a young man from a wealthy family (busy actor Charlie Plummer)"
Just wanted to share my own 'oops' moment. That's Charlie, not Christopher, Plummer!
I take industry polls or discussions about "world's greatest actor or actress" with a huge grain of salt, namely because they almost always exclusively only rank English-speaking performers. Washington, Day-Lewis, and Streep are undeniably brilliant, but Huppert, Cheung, Binoche, Leung, Adjani, etc., are just as versatile and talented, and I would argue, more fearless than them.
By the way, anyone know where the mother! Teaser with audio is located? I know it's supposedly playing ahead of some Dunkirk showings, but it doesn't seem to be online.
@Aaron
Here's the audio babe.
http://lawrencepedia.tumblr.com/post/163526025096/mother-teaser-audio
I think Sam Elliott should be mentioned (even if it's a distant possibility apparently) for his performance in The Hero.
He is a veteran actor in a totally leading performance in a film dominated for him. He has obtained very good comments and I feel that with a campaign that reminds the voters Elliott's performance and career he can be a contender.
The distributor (The Orchard) is unknown and may be the main against to Sam Elliott's chances.
Yawn predicting Gyllenhaal for that flop? Some habits die hard.
Willem Dafoe for THE FLORIDA PROJECT? My most anticipated movie this fall season. If A24 pushes, watch out.
Shoutouts to Bryan Cranston in The Last Flag Flying being nowhere to be found but Jake Gyllenhaal's flop in the making in the top 5
The Boring Categories.
Zzzz and Jeremy -- you know... isn't it terrible to wish ill on a movie and proclaim it a flop before it has even opened?
Well Nath, I also wrote related to Gyllenhaal, but they're right (Especially Jeremy mentioning your lack of awareness of Cranston and Last Flag Flying). Again, this is a film which Lionsgate dumped to Roadside Attractions at the first way, they didn't care in initial promotion (No CinemaCon, no early tours), World Premiere at Gala platform at TIFF (90% bad reference) and a dreadful release date. I mean, with the exception of your blind love to Gyllenhaal, this film has a lot of red flags and even with the physical transformation all the criticism falls in the line of "Lifetime Movie of the Week". Nothing of "Stronger" inspires confidence beyond love of Gyllenhaal.
Dallas Buyers Club, The Theory of Everything, Lion to name a few all world premiered at TIFF. Look how that turned out.
Joseph, these films WEREN'T GALA PREMIERE thought. They were special screenings, not likr "Stronger". This area of WP at Gala usually belongs to World Premieres like The Fifth State, Mandela film, The Promise and The Judge lol. Beside, i explained other points, unless you want to deny these.
Nathaniel, please reconsiderate... Did we saw the same trailer? "Stronger" looks as the perfect example of "This had Oscar buzz" and yellow range on Metacritic. And Gyllenhaal is just too hammy and desperate.
I think Bardem may surprises us, fantastic actor and he is a multiple nominee. His role seems really interesting. Also glad to see Washington in serious roles back to back, he is easily one of the greatest actors that ever lived (and better than Day-Lewis in my opinion too), it's always a waste to see him doing sub-par action movies instead of challenging roles but the opportunities may have not always been there..
Hanks is ranked too low too, it's time for his comeback nomination.
Like some others on here I'm wondering why you've completely ignored the disaster artist. The early reviews have been great and it's bound to be a crowd pleaser and people who've seen it says it's Franco's best performance. I get not listing it as a front runner but having it nowhere on the list seems like an oversight. Or do you know something we don't?
Hopefully that Gyllenhaal delusion ends soon. These trailers were ridiculous, the subject is too tacky and the full "I want that nomination" for Gyllenhaal... Ugh, Nathaniel.