April Foolish Predictions #9: Supporting Actress
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 11:01AM by Nathaniel R
Oscar predictions in the supporting categories are notoriously difficult to do this far in advance. That's largely due to the lack of information, since most pre-publicity for movies focuses on leading roles rather than ensemble players. With a dearth of early information, the Supporting Actress chart was agonizing to make but fun, too, since it foretells a year full of actressing wonders. There's sure to be at least a handful of brilliant performances to come and some that we haven't even imagined yet. Whether or not the future brilliance piques the interest of voters is another matter entirely.
After gazing at the foggy crystal ball, we opted for a lineup that's entirely free of previous winners and mostly newbies at that. Let us know what your hunches are, too, won'cha?
See also: Prediction Index chart
Reader Comments (37)
Thanks Nathaniel! I hope La Bening wins but I think Robie is the favorite. Did u not include Blackbird because they all seem like leads or u think it won't come out this year?
Is there a record of previous years' April Foolish Predictions?
I think it's time Johansson was recognised and she has 2 roles that could lead to her 1st Nom.
Do you think Winslet will be category frauded for Amonite opp Saorsie.
Tiffany Haddish or Elisabeth Moss could get consideration for The Kitchen (I'm assuming McCarthy would be considered lead because of course there can be only one). The August release date though might mean commercial play only.
Glenn Close for her Instagram posts.
Where’s Meryl??
Nicole Kidman twice. I love how you keep shoving her down our throats.
Really hoping for some Laura Dern brilliance.
Scarlett Johansson should have been nominated a long time ago. Nathaniel, would you please consider making a ranking of actors and actresses that by now should have at least a nomination? You may entitled it as the Edward G. Robinson list.
After what happened to Glenn, I don't think I can go through it again with Annette... At least, La Bening won't suffer the indignity of losing to a Supporting Actress in the leading race, though!
@Jorge I'd like such a list.
@James T Edward G. Robinson list for him, Myrna Loy list for her
Just seeing Mare Winningham on a potential Oscar nomination list makes my heart soar.
I cant imagine people being in a rush to nominate Scarlett Johansson.
Mr W -- i have most of them but they're not online anymore. On the prediction index page you can see details of how well we usually score this early.
ASF -- that's true (at the moment) but maybe all it would take would be a great performance to remind people of her talent.
Eric -- right? Hope it's not an itty bitty part.
Jamie -- Aunt March is an itty bitty part. I dont think even Meryl could get nominated for that.
Mark -- one of them will do catgory fraud surely though I'm suspecting 2020 with that film
James -- both on blackbird.
I guess the AMPAS should create "The Best Never Nominated"... I guess Scarlett Johansson would be elected president, Donald Sutherland her vice-president and Blunt would be the secretary (because she was a great secretary in THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA).
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Someone give them their first Oscar nomination, please!
I don't really think Scarlett Johansson is long overdue for an Oscar nomination. She's just someone with a long career who has justifiably never been nominated.
Laura Dern, however, is overdue for a win, and she is very well-liked in Hollywood (as is her dad, who managed to get a Best Actor nod in the toughest of years, with her help). She has been raising money for the new Academy museum. She'll be nominated - look at all of her recent industry recongition for her tv work. She has a good chance to win.
I have a feeling Maggie Smith will be a hit with precursors (BFCA, Globe, SAG, BAFTA) and a miss with Oscar. I can easily see them putting their foot down about honoring a TV role, no matter how good she is or how many precursor lists she makes.
Sort of like trying to reheat Mary Poppins.
Nathaniel- maybe? I have not seen Gerwig’s script but what I have read is that it will focus on the part where they leave home and enter adulthood. It may be possible that Aunt March may be another role than the mother.
No judgment but your speculative slates are dull. I don't want to get emotionally invested in this particular category this early in the season.
@/3rtful - sounds like a lot of judgment
I don't really think Scarlett Johansson is long overdue for an Oscar nomination. She's just someone with a long career who has justifiably never been nominated.
Why do people say stuff that is blatantly untrue she was in line as a potential nominee twice in 2003 and once in 2005 and a lot of people loved her voice work in Her from 2013.
The snubs came thick n fast for her so i'd say she is overdue,she's has been in a contract for 10 yrs which while lucrative did not request much from her acting skills,that iss now coming to an end she's now speading her wings and I as lots are eager to see if it pans out for her in a nomination that was due in 2003 or 2005.
@markgordonuk - I was stating my opinion (hence the preface "I don't really think..."), so it's entirely true. Your opinion may be different.
I think Elisabeth Moss is in, for "Us". She could win... that mirror scene alone...
Penelope Cruz is really facing the obstacle of the AMPAS history of LACK of foreign language performances being nom'd for Supporting. But well, if Marina de Tavira, could, Penelope can.
I still think Anna Paquin is the frontrunner for the win... she's the femenine highlight on a man-filled Scorsese film: Lorraine Bracco (Goodfellas)... and Vera Farmiga probably was pretty close to a nom for The Departed... with the narrative of former child actor that translated to consistent B-Lister and character actor that is having a modestly successful career (including Golden Globe win and Emmy nomination). A 2nd for her (specially after arguably have been snubbed of a lead nom and probable win for "Margaret") would put her in a similar postion to Foster when she won for "Silence of the Lambs". Question is, is she liked/respected enough for a 2nd win?
Performances Scar-Jo 3:16 should've nominated for:
Ghost World-Best Supporting Actress
Lost in Translation/Girl with a Pearl Earring-Best Actress
Match Point-Best Supporting Actress
Her-Best Supporting Actress
Under the Skin-Best Actress
thevoid99: Bump Ghost World and, ESPECIALLY, Her to Leading. Sorry, but if ScarJo in Her is "supporting", so are Amy Poehler in Inside Out or Holly Hunter in The Incredibles.
Isn't the fox news film called FAIR AND BALANCED?
Might be biased here, but I cannot see Maggie Smith missing this one.
Given Colman’s triumph - we must never underestimate the British wave of the academy.
And there is, after all, nothing like a dame!
I miss Hathaway too. I don’t think we are alone. She is a star. A good role in a good film, esp. if it is a drama, will get her a ton of buzz at the very least.
Margot Robbie seems to be as sure of a thing as you can be. Tarantino coaxed out her best performance yet in WOWS, no reason to think we will not get greatness again.
Wolf of Wall Street is Scorcese.
Streep has The Laundromat with Soderbergh. Nicole could play a lamp and Nathaniel would promote her. Count me as another who thinks Scarlett is stiff and lifeless.
Not sure if we know enough about Laundromat to see if Streep lead or supporting? My guess is supporting in an ensemble piece?
Glenn -- i keep hearing it referred to as Untitled and it was once called FAIR AND BALANCED so maybe they've ditched the title? Either that or its not set in stone yet.
Faye & Jamie -- Streep will be within the leading chart (alot of the early press reports suggested the film was centered around her but that might just be speculation. It's entirely possible that it's a supporting role but we have to make a decision while we're doing these charts so i put her on the leading chart.
I wish Jay Roach would go for a title that's really in your face like Roger Ailes is a Shithole.
I have not read The Goldfinch, but doesn't Sarah Paulson have the juiciest part (at least according to my friends who have read the book?)
Sawyer: I wish Jay Roach would go with a ballsy title like "No Sympathy, Please." Tagline: After all, they corrupted grandparents.
Just saw The Professor and the Madman. What a lovely film. So well acted. Mel Gibson and Sean Penn have an excellent chemistry. Natalie Dorman's performance is heart-wrenching. And Jennifer Ehle and Eddie Marsan are also worthy of Oscar consideration.