Monday
Sep302019
All Oscar Charts Updated!
Monday, September 30, 2019 at 12:24PM 
Every single Oscar chart has been updated. Woo-ho. Click on over to explore. The big movers up the chart this month are Marriage Story, Parasite, and The Irishman. Unfortunately we think this comes at a high cost for The Farewell. The films that no one has really seen yet but which could disrupt multiple races remain Bombshell and 1917. And, having seen Harriet, we've dropped that down to just competitive in three races.
tagged Oscars (19), Punditry
Oscars (19), Punditry
Reader Comments (35)
Good stuff in the Oscar chart but I would keep an eye on "Weather with You" just in case seeing how it was at the 2019 Toronto International Film Festival and is an opening film at the 2019 Animation is Film Festival. Also in case I would replace Klaus with Weathering with You just in case it is in the submission list for Best Animated Feature this year.
Wow looking at how fast the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress fields have cleared out, it really IS a weak year. *sigh*
LOL @ 3 nominations for "CATS"
The fact BA and BSA are weak we might end up with some surprises,I think the field will level out once LW and B/Shell are released whoever gets Best In Show will gain traction but it's v late.
I also think most people are underestimating both Lupita,Awkwafina and esp Alfre.
Best actor : DiCaprio is in, Bale will be in supporting
Best supporting actor: I think Hopkins has a better chance than Dafoe
Best actress : not excited this year
Best supporting actress : ok, for now
Is Bening really a 4th spotter,her film will barely get released,has no real nom prospects beyond her and she has been better many times in the past.
No real love for the LW ladies seems foolish,I am sure 1 will pop out as Best in Show.
Harriet is not happening.
Are there any people we are sleeping on.
Lopez and Dern feel safe as of today.
Thatsa lotsa Movoe Stars!!!
Pacino, Pitt, Hanks and Hopkins all in supporting actor is wow. Early 90s Best Actors and stars.
"The films that no one has really seen yet but which could disrupt multiple races remain Bombshell and 1917."
Little Women.
Margot Robbie really? For what? Being pretty
erick -- i'm resisting the bale in supporting narrative as long as i can because it's profoundly silly. the movie is totally about him. also he probably has a better shot in lead this year where he actually belongs.
bran -- i dont make the rules ;)
ME -- again i dont make the rules. Lots of bad movies (and no one has seen that one yet) have been nominated for craft categories before. especially films with massively high profiles.
Mark -- but supporting actress doesn't have a lot happening there right now. so who could be strong enough to overcome Bening (who is actually very good in that movie)
She's gr8 in that watching her own movie scene.It's not all about showboating,she's there to create a mood or a prescence,not to emote for her life.
Emoting for you life is like lip syncing for your life but for actresses.
Watching to see if Place takes any of the major critics' prizes come December. It's a very LAFCC kind of performance in my eyes. If A24 mounts a good campaign for The Farewell, I can see Zhao Shuzhen climbing just as fast as she's fallen in this go-round.
Florence Pugh should be much higher on that Supporting Actress chart. There is a lot of buzz surrounding her performance and she has a second big talked about performance this year.
Forget about Bening. She's not happening this year. But, with the surprise box office clout of "Downton Abbey", I suspect Maggie Smith's going to coast to a 'we love her" nomination. Dern and Lopez (she'll campaign like blazes) are going for the win, but I think Dern has the edge. That leaves the other two spots for Robbie and Shuzhen.
Pesci and Pacino are probably both in, posing problems for Alda, Hopkins and Dafoe. Hanks seems like a good bet to make the final five. Though I find him pretty meh in the trailers. A buzzy field but I still think Brad Pitt's got this in the bag.
I hope DeNiro doesn't dislodge Banderas or DiCaprio. But even if he's nominated the real battle remains between Driver and Phoenix. The "Joker" controversy over violence will help Driver, though his work seems to be of such high quality he really doesn't need extra help.
Woodard's going to show up among the Actress nominees. And high time. But at the big shindig, she, Johansson, Ronan and Awkwafina are all going to end up as Zellweger's bridesmaids .
I love the "Bombshell" trailer and Theron rocks it without saying a word. But I figure legal constraints around the portrayal of prominent living people will - in the end - have the picture pulling its punches.I hope I'm wrong and that the great Charlize emerges with an undeniable sweep into the top five. Which would mean, I imagine, adios Awkwafina or Ronan.
Nathaniel
I didn't see Ford vs Ferrari, but if Bale is the lead, he could be nominated instead of Murphy.
I just can't see DiCaprio out.
So strange: no category fraud in supporting actress!
Everyone is pinning there hopes on Theron I see.
Do you think Constance Wu can repeat at the Globes? Would Hustlers go comedy? Dern vs Lopez feels pretty potentially exciting to me.
We don't even know if Theron is the lead in Bombshell, do we?
Robbie is supposedly the composite character/audience surrogate, which sounds like a lead to me.
Nicole stands in the center in teaser (and utters the only words), and Gretchen Carlson was the primary Fox News whistleblower.
Maybe there are 2-3 leads, but I wouldn't be remotely shocked if Theron's in the wrong category here.
That said the camera does linger longest on Theron but why wouldn't it?
Still no Thomas Newman (1917) in original score?
Are there no changes in the Best Actress category? It's still dated September 21.
The one 'snub' I am going to put my flag down for is THE LION KING doesn't get visual effects. Much like BLACK PANTHER last year, I think there is enough a critical backlash against the effects work that I think the branch may very easily decide they don't want it. Not to mention the way the film is essentially an animated movie. At least JUNGLE BOOK had real elements to work with.
I correctly predicted THE LEGO MOVIE wouldn't be nominated, so I'm sticking with it.
Could Thomasin McKenzie end up in the lead actress race for Jojo Rabbit?
I'd guess of GKIDS' films Weathering With You is the one with the best odds (certainly better than the generally ignored Okko's Inn).
I'm also curious if, given it had a theatrical premiere in LA, if Steven Universe: The Movie will qualify for the Animation category (Regular Show: The Movie did, so Cartoon Network HAS submitted films with barely-qualifying releases to the Oscars before). Odds of getting nominated are low even in such a weak year for animation, but I WOULD hold out some hope that Estelle and Chance the Rapper could campaign to get "True Kind of Love" nominated for Best Original SOng.
I still think Streep will get in. Yes- critics are divided but most Top critics still claim she is best in show. And also helps that it really, really is THIS time a weak year.
Laundromat is a dud. Like Nat said, playing a Latina isn't gonna fly with critics or audience. That has in fact been decried in recent reviews since Toronto. They understand Soderbergh's intent but it's still a forced error through and through. I think she should be downgraded further in lead and as for supporting, not a chance! Yeah!
Pete- we shall see.
Fig -- that would be very strange since it's a supporting role and those only go lead if the star is super famous.
Little Women and The Two Popes are going to be liked very much by the Academy.
In no order:
Driver
DiCaprio
De Niro
Phoenix
Pryce
Renee
Scarlett
Cynthia
Saorsie
Theron
Pacino
Pesci
Pitt
Hanks
Hopkins
Dern
Lopez
Zhou
Robbie
Smith
I have a remark to pages of foreign film submissions.
I'm from Poland so: Poland has already 11 nominations (not 10).
And this description of "Corpus Christi" is not necessarily true: "Drama about a juvenile delinquet with a spiritual awakening who decides to become a small-town parish." Bartosz Bielenia plays 'a juvenile delinquet' but he becomes a priest simply by misunderstanding. He comes to a small town in Poland and claims that he is a priest to a girl, joking, and the joke becomes a reality because the local community needs a new priest.. But this is always a forgery. He helps the community and is a good man (despite his past) but not a real priest.