Oscar nominations at a glance. How'd you do on your predictions?
Monday, January 13, 2020 at 10:25AM by Nathaniel R
Over at the Oscar Nomination Index, you can survey the whole field and see how we did on our predictions. The short answer is NOT GREAT. But want the long answer? If you do click to read more...
We got a little too daring in our Acting predictions since the truth is that Oscar rarely strays from the template set by the Globes and SAG so two criticarl darlings who were iffy given the precursors (Banderas and Nyong'o) got a split result with only one of them making it. But Oscar not getting adventurous is why we stuck with Erivo & Theron in Best Actress despite a lack of passion for those performances out there in the (online) world and why we should have predicted Leonardo DiCaprio all along.
As for director, that fifth spot also went where most people expected it to go but we thought they'd get artier. So now you have the real thing (Martin Scorsese) competing directly against his imitator (Todd Phillips... since Joker is just basically a knock off Taxi Driver/King of Comedy goosed up to also be part of the Batman franchise)
We tend to do very well on Cinematography each year and correctly predicted The Lighthouse. We just picked the wrong film to miss for its placement. The Irishman's nods for Cinematography and Costume Design both feel quite excessive, considering the rich array of options the Academy has but this year is one of those years where lazy voting reigned. We haven't done the research yet but years with FOUR films hitting 8 digit nomination counts we think are fairly rare and Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and The Irishman all accomplished that this year. So in short they were obsessed with those four films. We think slot five, if we went back to the five nomineees only days is tougher to say. What is in fifth place really: Marriage Story or Jojo Rabbit or Little Women?
We were saved by rioting with Parasite landing in Production Design and Editing but those two categories otherwise feel quite lazy. I dont even dislike Jojo Rabbit the way so much of the internet does but what business does its Wes Andersony stylings have doing in thse categories? Marriage Story would have made a great editing nominee but was nowhere to be found in the visual categories.
It's cute that even though you can't count on the Sound branch to differentiate between Mixing and Editing (their nominations are usually 4/5 or 5/5) you can usually count on them to give one random movie its sole nod. That year that honor goes to Ad Astra and we're delighted because we love that movie and it had no Oscar campaign to speak of. When a movie doesn't have a campaign and shows up you know people who were voting for it actually think of it as "Best" in that category.
Let us not speak of the horrific snubbing of the year's best Original Song ("Glasgow" from Wild Rose) in favor of simple tunes and dross. LET US NOT.
And finally let's hear it for HONEYLAND which is the first film *ever* to score in both Best Documentary and Best International Film simultaneously... though many films before it have tried! Otherwise, true to form, the Documentary Branch ignored the year's biggest doc hit (Apollo 11) so we were perhaps silly to predict it.
And finally, because we like to be totally transparent here, marvel at how poorly we scored on Live-Action Shorts. It's the worst we've ever done in the shorts categories. It's hard to be *that* wrong when you have only 10 finalists to choose from so WHOOPS. We were somewhat redeemed with the 4/5 score in Documentary shorts though.
How'd you do on your predictions? What were you most proud of? Where did you fail spectacularly?
Honeyland, Oscars (19), Punditry
Reader Comments (71)
I had more Ford v Ferrari and Rocketman and less Little Women but I really don't care because now I have to sit and watch Richard Jewell and Bombshell and I DONT WANT TO.
I had come to terms with Lopez not winning but no being nominated? And getting shut out by THESE performances?! Truly truly dispirating. With the exception of Pugh I think the rest of the category is either unmemorable or fully horrible. It's the weakest it's been in a while.
I think it's the first time ever four films have gotten double digit nominations. Heck, I don't think there's been a year where three films have done it.
In such a fun, diverse year at the movies, this list feels like socks for Christmas. Just so boring and Dad movie. (And what did Jennifer Lopez do wrong one her past lives?)
There's nothing *wrong* with Kathy Bates in RICHARD JEWELL, if this were say, 1997 or so. It's a harmless supportive mom type and she has a few Oscar clip scenes that play well.
But in 2019 with the wealth of talent out there... Imagine what this category could've been! Gross.
I'm glad the Oscars can still sometimes show some sense and didn't nominate Sandler while putting in Banderas. Too bad they'll likely give awards to baity, undeserving fare like OUATIH and Zellweger's Judy. This will be my first year not watching in a long time after last year's out and out debacle.
I was spot on about Little Women, which makes me sad because I personally nominated it for so much more. Parasite beat my expectations with the Production Design nomination. I had crossed my fingers that Joker might not hit as hard as expected, but I've been having a very monkey's paw New Year so far and my wish came true in the opposite way.
Ugh. Now I have to see Richard Jewell, The Lion King and Maleficent
It’s especially disappointing to see four movies dominate with double-digit nominations in such a strong, diverse year for movies. Of course those were going to be the movies with the most nominations, but did they really need to be nominated in ALL of those categories when there were so many opportunities to include films that didn’t have a shot at a Best Picture nomination? Did 1917–by all accounts, a directorial/technical achievement—need an Original Screenplay nomination when they could have given it to The Farewell, Booksmart, Uncut Gems, etc.? Did Joker and The Irishman need Costume Design nominations at the expense of Dolemite Is My Name (one of the more surprising snubs)?
I swear, most Academy voters must only watch the 10 or so movies in the Best Picture conversation, and it shows.
I'm honestly bummed for The Farewell, it scored bigger in my own predictions - but most of my categories (I only do a top 8 tbh the technicals i'm not great with predicting) were mostly 4/5. The Two Popes really affected my charts.
Overall very disappointing nominees.
But I'm thrilled for Scarlett Johansson. Talk about making up for lost time!
Bates' Oscar legacy
4 nods means she has more any of her fellow 63rd ceremony acting winners
Though Joe Pesci and her are reunited since their initial wins 29 years ago
He trails her with three nods, followed by Whoopi with two, and Jeremy Irons only has the one despite the lone triple crown winner of the bunch
Bates also is a three consecutive decade nominee
Fun fact:
Best Supporting Actor is Brad Pitt vs Oscar winners from 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1994.
I'm happy for "Ford vs Ferrari" a solid well crafted movie that should take home the editing Oscar and yes for Antonio Banderas!
Why would Bates have been ok in 1997?
90s >> now, please.
Nathaniel, how excited are you to do your Supporting Actress smack down? JLo would have made it so much more interesting and yet even if she had I really wonder how much passion people would be feeling for this group of performances beyond her. I think JLo would have won the smack down in a cake walk, but now???
Will Saoirse Ronan become the new nominations-magnet à la Meryl Streep? She's received 4 nominations by age 25, and the last three (2016, 2028 and 2020) in the course of 5 years. Is this achievement a record in itself?
Next up are two films with Kate Winslet: "Ammonite" and "The French Dispatch", both scheduled for release this year. "Ammonite" could be Oscar material.
Does it show she my favorite young actress? And, BTW, she should have won for Brooklyn.
ME: Brad Pitt is also an Oscar winner, technically. He won an Oscar for producing 12 Years a Slave, so everyone in that lineup is a previous winner (granted, Pitt has yet to win for acting and will this year). But yeah, it's actually kind of cool that so many actors that haven't been nominated for so long are back.
Antonio Banderas is nominated, so I'm happy!!!
I'm also thrilled for Arianne Phillips! Hands down one of the coolest people in the game.
@ME and Brad PItt's 1st nomination was best supporting actor in 1995!
Y'all look pretty good 25 years later
I’m so annoyed about The Farewell being shut out. And Gerwig missing Director. And Parasitr failing to land an acting spot.
They snubbed Ruth Carter?! And Mark Harris is saying on Twitter that they did pretty good.
So, I've mentioned that I'm running an alternate history of the Oscars where prior winners (and people who would otherwise be double nominated but are winning one of the categories) can't get nominated. Based on these nominations, THAT alternate history would probably look like...
Lead Actor:
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker - Winner
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Lead Actress:
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story - Winner
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Supporting Actor:
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Hollywood - Winner
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
Song Kang-ho, Parasite
Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit
Supporting Actress:
Laura Dern, Marriage Story - Winner
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
#oscarssoboring
And the only (non-animated, non-doc) films I still "need" to see are The Irishman (tonight), 1917, The Lighthouse and Ad Astra...
Harris is such a conservative. If he weren't gay he would be voting Republican.
A statistical oddity - the nine films with the most nominations (from "Joker" with eleven to "Ford vs. Ferrari" with five) are also the exact same nine films nominated for Best Film. The next highest nomination total is three.
How did The Farewell get nothing? How?
Interesting footnote:
Emma Tillinger Koskoff is nominated for producing both.
I’m rejoicing at J-Lo’s omission.
HUSTLERS was the first movie of hers I’d seen since MONSTER-IN-LAW, and I thought she was pretty bad per usual. It’s a performance made up of little more than striking poses and delivering stilted line readings. I didn’t buy Ramona’s relationship with her daughter, nor her ambition of launching a fashion label, and especially not when she turned on the Constance Wu character (“You ungrateful little b!tch!”). Essentially, she gave an impressive provocative dance while scantily clad, something already well within her wheelhouse and the only one of her multi-hyphenates at which I believe she’s actually good. (If you look closely enough at the close-ups and long shots, it is also quite obvious to me that she used a double at points.) This whole hysteria began with bizarre and hyperbolic praise (payola perhaps?) from A.O. Scott and Peter Travers and was parlayed by the huge publicity machine behind her into the most desperate campaign I can ever recall seeing. Worst of all, we’re stuck with her as one half of the Super Bowl halftime show during which, and adding insult to injury, she’ll probably unleash Pitbull on us. I’m presently and ironically spinning “Feelin’ So Good” from ON THE 6 and reveling in my schadenfreude.
(I knew Laura Dern would win the Globe the second they brought Gwyneth out to present, which was karmic retribution for Ms. Lopez’s infamous MOVIELINE diatribe.)
I like Brad Pitt and think he could eventually win an Oscar without category fraud. I’m embarrassed for his clear Lead going Supporting; it’s cheating, and he’s such a big star that it makes it all the more egregious than Alicia Vikander and Mahershala Ali (both of whom were likely at the mercy of studio strategy) and Viola Davis (which is also unforgivable). There has to be a concrete time rule for Supporting vs. Lead!
It’s truly come to this, and I propose:
MORE THAN 45 MINUTES SCREENTIME = LEAD
LESS THAN 45 MINUTES SCREENTIME = SUPPORTING
I’m thrilled for Antonio, Popes Pryce & Hopkins, and Kathy Bates.
My heart breaks for Mary Kay Place, Alfre Woodard, Song Kang Ho, and, surprising to myself, Adam Sandler.
PARASITE & 1917 are the only Best Picture and/or Director results acceptable to me.
Thanks for all you do, Nathaniel! Your work and the work of your team has been a joy to read again this year!
Carl - how is that a statistical oddity? Did it not happen last year, also?
And "Ford v Ferrari" has four nominations.
I feel bad for some of the ladies, especially Greta Gerwig. I was hoping she would be nominated over the Joker dude. Also, Jennifer Lopez, Awkwafina, Lupita Nyong'o … you know, the women of color.
I’m SOOO HAPPY FloPu made it into my favorite category ... but I’m devastated it was at the expense of JLo. Never in my life did I see myself mourning at Jennifer Lopez’s expense but today is that day.
Watched Honeyland yesterday (it's on Hulu). It was very good but I still can't help but wondering if it was at least partially scripted.
Never bet on an A24 movie unless it's a genuine phenomen like Moonlight or Lady Bird.
Mark Harris on Twitter: "Nobody should be satisfied that 19 out of 20 acting slots went to white performers. But yearly nominations are a profoundly imperfect snapshot. The Academy that rewarded Spike Lee, Mahershala Ali, and Regina King last year is the same one that bungled its shots this year."
Mark Harris is pointedly not saying that they 'did pretty good'. He's saying this bad outcome is not the whole story in the ongoing struggle to diversify the academy. But by all means, pop off.
Ryan: I mean, 45 minutes of a 180+ minute movie is still almost certainly supporting, though? You have to go proportional, at least as a guideline. <25% of screentime? Almost always supporting, barring certain HIGHLY impactful characters. 25-40% of screentime? Dicey. Depends on structure. 41-60%? Almost always lead, but watch out for low impact sounding board characters, like Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs. 61% or more? They're lead. No question.
I'm so mad Jlo got snubbed... First, because I think she really deserved it, she was great in Hustlers... and secondly, because now I have to watch Richard Jewell... WHY????
Scarlett Johansson so doesn't deserve the nom - she's outacted by Adam Driver in every scene they share - she hasn't been good since Under The Skin - she gave a perfect performance in Lost In Translation but that s a long time ago.
I blame the shitty superhero movies she's been a part of.
Lupita Nyong'o - that was such a longshot, Nathaniel - it must've been your heart talking and not your mind - wishful thinking in other words.
So happy about Florence Pugh - she's my favorite actress to come along in a while.
The world didn't need another Little Women but it needs (and luckily celebrates) great actresses like her.
Once upon a time in Hollywood, men ruled and women knew their place. Oh yeah, that's still how it is.
I've been saying for months this is a backlash year - in the context of #TimesUp and #MeToo, the Academy digs in and rewards toxic masculinity, violence, guns, and filmmakers who keep women mute.
For every glimmer of joy (ANTONIO, Florence) I'm mostly feeling the gut punch of snubs for JLo, Awkwafina, Shuzhen Zhao, Lupita, the cast of Parasite (particularly the actresses), and while we're at it, Taron.
I've been on a cloud for Honeyland all morning. What a film, and I hardly believe the academy truly *saw* this little film's value on the level it did. Thrilling news.
I agree that Lupita was probably a longshot. It was so so similar in terms of awardage and genre to Toni Collette's effort last year.
I can only accept Johansson double nomination because I actually think she should have three nominations by now. Lost in Translation, Her and Marriage Story. Under the skin in an exceptional dimension could’ve made a 4th but that film never really had a chance. However, I don’t think her performance in Jojo Rabbit merited a nomination. Is it good? Yes. Touching even, but that’s about it.
I add my voice to the chorus of people relieved to know that J Lo is not a nominee. I’m a latino before anybody comes for me but she’s just not a talented actress.
I had hopes for Lupita and Shuzhen and felt the possibility was there. Alas.
All in all, a nomination morning like every other year. Expected, surprises that delight folks and snubs that upset others, and people whining and think-piecing about them on the internet. All is good.
@KJ - Yes, yes, yes! Honeyland deserves so much of this praise. What an outstanding film.
Ugh. The more I look at these categories the more I hate them. I truly can say I'm not rooting for a single thing.
I used to get giddy gearing up for Oscar nominations morning, but lately the feeling has been more of dread (or increasing disinterest).
If anything, at least now we can acknowledge/accept that the Academy's recent push to diversify its membership isn't the saving grace we hoped it'd be. In fact, the more diverse, international membership is just as prone to terrible group think as the older, whiter, more male membership of yore. Which really sucks.
Mareko - frankly i dont know why that is coming as a surprise to people. People are people, skin-color does not make people immune from groupthink or laziness. Neither does citizenship. But i'm going to choos to believe it's just a bad year. We have bad years and good years and inbetween years.
Charlea -- i feel pretty sure i know who is going to win the Smackdown and it would have been a LOT more fun with JLo's performance in there. But i'm always excited to dot the smackdown.
Jones -- i feel this way about Scarlett too except i like hre performances this year a lot more than you do. Two in one year usually feels excessive whoever it is (I cant recall an instance where i thought both double nods for acting were deserving) but if th performer is underrewardd in general it's easier to accept and she totally is.
Ulrich -- but was it? She had a SAG nom and it was an enormous hit. I still think it could have and should have happened. I bet she was in 6th place, easy.
Ugh now I guess I'll have to finally see The Joker, dammit.
whunk:
I have the same reservations about Honeyland. There's just too much of a story arc for me to believe the whole thing was just "found".