New Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actress
Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 11:00AM by Nathaniel R
With most of this year's buzziest titles featuring large casts filled with men, and with the general shortage of movies, Supporting Actress is looking much less competitive than usual. At least so far. This is why we're feeling so confident that the one to watch is 12 year old Helena Zengel of the western drama News of the World. It's a large role -- she plays the kidnapped girl that Tom Hanks is out to rescue -- and just last year with Germany's Oscar submission System Crasher, she made international waves receiving a nomination for Best Actress at the European Film Awards. Of course the film might not open. Nothing is certain this season...
The general emptiness of the competition thus far also might be the ideal situation to finally get Glenn Close her Oscar as "Mawmaw" in Hillbilly Elegy. But Netflix has so far been concentrating on other movies. Will it be delayed? Do they lack faith in it? Or are they just saving the big gun to much closer to the nomination battle (which is still five months away in this delayed season)?
Natasha Lyonne and Andra Day as lovers Tallulah Bankhead and Billie Holliday in "United States vs Billie Holliday"
My father warned me about men and booze but he never said anything about women and cocaine.
-Tallulah Bankhead
Our WILD CARD choice at this point, since we haven't heard people discussing the possibility, is Natasha Lyonne as Tallulah Bankhead in The United States vs Billie Holiday. Director Lee Daniels makes uneven movies but the acting has generally been exciting and what better opportunity for Lyonne, whose career has been on a steady upswing. She could knock one out of the park playing this really flamboyant part of a true original and showbiz legend. Though the film centers on a black undercover agent (Moonlight's Trevante Rhodes) who romances and investigates Billie Holliday (Andra Day), Bankhead and Billie were lovers in real life and both struggled with addiction. The roles and the movie should be interesting.
OSCAR CHARTS
Index | Picture | Director | Supporting Actress -new! | Supporting Actor | International Feature | Screenplays | Visuals | Sound | Animation
Reader Comments (32)
Oh a prediction post I can get into. Love it.
I'm excited to learn about Lyonne as Tallulah. If she nails the part, then I think she's an oscar shoe-in. However, I do see this as a stretch role for her, given that it's hard for me to see her really getting into a period role. But she surprised me with Russian Doll, so I suspect she will here.
I'm don't think Glenn will get the nomination here. Part of that is just keeping my hopes low after 2018. But, I also think Hillbilly Elegy will be marred by its politics and the author of the book. I also do think that Howard is out of step, as a director, with what the academy looks for in films now. It has been a while since any of his projects have received attention.
Considering the year we've had, Close will get nominated and then lose to Coleman again.
No Saoirse for Ammonite, do you think the movie is not of the Academy’s taste or that they will not entertain this category fraud?
I didn't even realize Lyonne was in Billie Holliday, how exciting! Fingers crossed that it is great - Lee Daniels could go either way, but at least it won't be boring.
The Emmys at home were the saddest thing I have ever seen.
Don't you dare giving Glenn Close her overdue Oscar this year, motherfuckers.
This post cheered me up I had no idea about this new Billie Holliday film and now Tallulah being played by Natasha,it just shot to the top of my list.
Peter -- as i say on the chart, i'm just not going to support it by 'predicting' it. If they make it official, so be it. But I'm through with helping this along (i really think that's what pundits do, perhaps unwittingly) by assuming they'll cheat.
Seyried being the second of the Mean Girls quartet to get a nomination would be intriguing. It's a plum role if Fincher does right by it, and like McAdams, she'd be the principle female role in a film filled with men, so I could see it happening. That's easily the movie I'm most intrigued by as the year continues on.
I feel like the Oscars aren't going to happen in April.
I’m not familiar with Hillbilly potential controversies and I remember when Academy loved Ron Howard...it’s sad if even this time it won’t be about time for Glenn
I like the tease on Danielle MacDonald in The French Exit - "... but is the movie good?". If memory serves aren't you seeing it tonight?
Also love that you're avoiding Kristen Scott Thomas in Rebecca, you must really think it'll fail.
I'd love to see Young Yuh-Jong crack the top 5, I hear she's wonderful.
Are you considering Streep for Lead?
I love that you did not predict Ronan. Stick to your guns Nathaniel!
Lee Daniels gave us Mariah Carey as a social worker, Jane Fonda as Nancy Reagan and Natasha Lyonne as Tallulah Bankhead. Put him in charge of casting every movie. He has a real genius for it.
For me, the interesting question is if The Tragedy of Macbeth is released in time, will the producers promote Frances McDormand as supporting to avoid competition with her secure lead nomination for Nomadland?
I saw the stage production of Macbeth that was starting point for the film. That show would suggest the role is a lead. However, the text is being revised and plenty of leads are promoted as supporting. McDormand has been nominated as supporting previously for North Country and Almost Famous. She certainly doesn't have an ego about category placement.
Think Streep could go supporting or lead for this...Either way I think a 22nd nomination is coming... not sure if she is only Emmy considered for Let Them All Talk?
@James
They're delaying Macbeth to avoid this season.
I’ve never heard of any of these films. Wtf is going on!?
Kenny -- it's a strange year. we haven't had a new movie culture to speak of for months.
To Nat
You continually fail to answer my questions. They are
far and few... But it would be nice to be recognized
I know you are not crazy about Streep... But still!!!
Close or Adams aren't happening. Not a diss to either of them, the movie is just bad. It will not be a part of anyone's conversation. It's a mess and will be buried.
rdf, Nathaniel answered your question on the predictions page.
less Oscar talk and movie talk based predominantly around Oscar chances has been an unexpected silver lining to Corona. I'm sure my interest will peak again in a year or two, after the exquisite perfection of a Colman win paired with Parasite I'm not ready for the Green Book choice they're due to make this year.
Why do I have the sneaking suspicion that the success of Nomadland will hurt Hillbilly Elegy? That the authenticity of the former will make the latter feel too "Hollywood hits Appalachia. " Too earl to tell but still...
I had a feeling Ronan would do the right thing and go lead with Winslet, but with quite a competitive Actress category and hardly any contenders in Supporting, she'll undoubtedly be placed here.
rdf -- yes, Streep will be on the leading chart until i hear otherwise.
Mike -- so you've seen it?
bjt -- haha. but it wasn't intentional. She should have been in the third tier.
What about Jenny Slate for “On the Rocks”? A long shot but it’s a slow year and I saw her singles out in several reviews
Thanks, Nathaniel. Sorry I missed that on the charts page (thought the text there was a summation of this post), makes total sense.
I was apathetic to the Billie Holiday movie until finding out Natasha Lyonne is in it with a potentially buzzy role. Directed by Lee Daniels--yes! As others have said, we at least know it won't be boring.
I would prefer Glenn wins Leading Actress for the Sunset Blvd musical, but whatever gets her an Oscar honestly... it's awesome that she's still relevant and receiving nominations all these years later, so clearly she has support. The Wife was just a boring ass movie; sorry not sorry. I hope she's nominated for this!
Would be cool to see Amanda Seyfried welcomed to the club, too. Since she's been continuously rising all these years.
Yes Nate, seen in. Won't say more, but it will not be a player in any way. If the year is very very thin, Close might sneak in but I sincerely doubt it. She only has one note to play and the film itself is just so bad. We're talking in the 40s metacrtic bad.
Does anyone think Maria Bakalova has a small chance? She seems to be the highlight of most reviews and there is a lack of depth outside of category fraud.