New Oscar Predictions: Best Actor
Thursday, October 8, 2020 at 8:00AM by Nathaniel R
Curiously all the action, or "buzz", to date is in the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor races. The other two acting competitions are seriously wanting... at least from this vantage point. We haven't seen a Best Actor race this empty of potential players since circa 2003. Sir Anthony Hopkins (The Father) may well be destined to become the oldest actor ever to win in the male leading category (he's 82, and the current record holder Henry Fonda was 76). Gary Oldman's upcoming take on Mank and Delroy Lindo's much acclaimed turn in Da 5 Bloods are probably can't-miss nominees given the lack of competition unless something goes very wrong for them. But the 4th and 5th slots just might be a free-for-all.
Much of that is due of course to the sparse field of films planning on opening before the eligibility deadline in February of 2021. Given this (currently) wide open race we might see someone from an ensemble picture like Trial of the Chicago 7 or One Night in Miami campaigning as lead. Who do you think might surprise us with a robust campaign and/or wild acclaim? Check out the new Best Actor chart.
Reader Comments (34)
Yeah i've felt where the buzz was through these prediction pieces. Maybe a more consolidated piece except for the one or two worthy categories worth discussing at this point?
I can’t wait to see Hopkins nominated again. How exciting to get two in a row after over 20 years away from the game.
I also really hope Delroy Lindo makes it in. He was great in Da 5 Bloods, and he has been putting in great work for years. I know him mostly through The Good Fight and Malcolm X, and it’s great to see him have this late career rally.
For foreign contenders, you could include And Then We Danced star Levan Gelbakhiani (or Another Round's Mads MIkkelsen)
As far as I know, Netflix's The Boys in The Band had no intention of being a theatrical release. Now I'm seeing some websites saying it is eligible for Oscar. I fee like they're wrong but what do I know? It would have better awards chances at Emmys anyway.
As long as Oldman doesn't win again while Timmy coulda had his back then.
Forgive and remind me, have you seen Chicago or Miami? If so, would you personally put any of the ensemble members in lead? Just curious for your personal thoughts. Seems like Hopkins to lose right now, he’s been in the conversation steadily since Sundance in January.
sigh... THE WAY BACK with Ben Affleck was the last movie I saw in theaters back in March :-(
I'll always remember that movie for that reason. Affleck was VERY good in it though!
You should at least give Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) a mention. His performance is winning acclaim in every review, it has a release date (11/20), and besides One Night in Miami, it's Amazon's only other significant film.
Murray's campaign is supporting. Not that you entertain fraud in your predictions. Just something to make you aware of.
Am I wrong to imagine an all Brit category:
Hopkins
Oldman
Lindo
Kingsley Ben-Adir (if campaigned for lead)
Riz Ahmed (good mention, Jess)
With
Law, Patel, Holland, Garfield & Kaluuya all waiting in the wings.
Colin Firth in Supernova?
/3rtful -- it's always weird when people choose fraud even when the fraud category is more competitive. (sigh)
Is Steven Yuen going lead or supporting?
I love Fincher, but I'm soooooooo over Oldman (I thought everyone was?). I wish the best for Mank, but I could do without watching Gary Oldman for 2+ hours
Tom -- i dont think we know yet. But I've heard he is in less of it than you'd expect so possibly supporting even though he's top billed (like a Brad Pitt, tree of life thing?)
Peter -- i haven't seen MIAMI yet but from my understanding of the play it has four leads (as its essentially about that quartet for the whole film). I have seen TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 which is a big ensemble and I'd be comfortable with calling everyone supporting though if you wanted to promote someone, Sacha Baron Cohen and Eddie Redmayne would be the leads (but not just one of them. If you make that differentiation, it would make no narrative sense to call only one of them a lead.)
You wanna see something robust?
I think Ben Affleck has to make it in. He's a big name, it's the closest thing to a crowd-pleaser or crowd-favorite we got in the Before Times, he was legitimately good, and it's the type of role the Academy honors. He won't win, but he'll fit in nicely in slot #4 or #5.
I'd be surprised if Murray lost out on another nomination, at least based on what I've heard. Hopkins and Oldman are sure things. I'd like to think Lindo is too, but his film was so early... not sure yet. He'd certainly be deserving.
Paranoid Android: Would not be surprised. Also: I'm really not confident with Mank. Biopics that are as gleefully ahistoric as Mank reportedly is are RARE. The last comparable one might be... Patch Adams? Yeah, I'm expecting the knives.
There's always a hold over from the year's previous nominees and this year Hopkins looks to be it.
Colin Firth - Supernova
Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Sebastian Stan - The Last Full Measure
If, as mentioned, you're looking for a foreign film actor to sneak into a weak field, I notice MARTIN EDEN is listed as having a USA release date this month. Luca Marinelli is amazing in it.
Nathaniel, I would include Riz Ahmed for "Sound of Metal". His reviews were excellent, the film had a really good reception and Amazon is pushing for a Christmas release.
I am here for
Anthony Hopkins
Gary Old man
Daniel Kaluuya
Trevonte Rhodes
Delroy Lindo
Also, you can add Tom Holland for "Cherry". He's playing a meth addict with PTSD after the war and was acquired by Apple+ for awards competition: https://appleinsider.com/articles/20/09/25/apple-acquires-rights-to-upcoming-russo-brothers-film-cherry
Agreed with Travis re: Luca Marinelli. He is PHENOMENAL in Martin Eden (i mean, he beat out Phoenix, Driver, Pitt et all last year to win the Volpi Cup at Venice for this performance)... the only question is whether or not Kino Lorber will put in the effort re: a campaign. If this is a truly weak year thrown out of balance by a shifting release schedule, they could inadvertently benefit from that...
The contender that actually excites me the most is Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal). Backed by Amazon, Nov/Dec release, great reviews. Really looking forward to that.
How on earth is Bill Murray supporting in On the Rocks? He’s top billed and appears to be the lead along with Rashida Jones. These fraud campaigns are getting weirder and weirder.
I’d say outside of Hopkins, Oldman, and Hanks, it’s anyone’s game. I feel like this should be an easy second win for Hopkins this year.
Nathaniel: What do you think are the odds of the Oscars actually taking place in April? I feel like the more movies get delayed the more likely they'll just do them in 2022.
Sort of like how the Tonys claimed they were going to have an awards show and then ... ???
Nathaniel and Tom
I read somewhere Steven Yeun is going to be campaigned as lead for MINARI. I can't recall the source but I remember it was a believable one so I included him in my GDerby predictions last week
Has a final decision been made on Hamilton yet? There's potential there for a Best Actor nod or two.
Bleecker Street bought North American rights for "Supernova" and they'll release it in the UK in November. I expect they'll made the US deadline too. So both Colin Firth and Stanley Tucci are now viable contenders
Depp in Minamata
Just released a trailer so could be on the "if released in time" or "other leads" lists.
Is Jim Parsons eligible? Because as someone who didin't see the original, with his TV success ala Cranston he could waltz to an Oscar nomination for the Boys In The Band film. Heck Supporting Actress has been a 'recent TV success really helps as a precursor to winning an Oscar' for a while now.