Final Emmy Predictions

By Abe Fried-Tanzer

Emmy nominations will be announced on Tuesday, July 28th at 11:30am ET/8:30am ET. We’ve covered the major categories, analyzed the rule changes, listed some of our favorite underdogs, poured over the ballots, and pondered lingering questions. It’s time now for our final predictions, and we’ll see how things play out on Tuesday.

Below, you’ll find our picks for the nominees in each of the top categories...

We’re adding in the guest acting, directing, and writing races, which we haven’t previously covered. For limited series directing and writing, some are submitted as one entity while others chose individual installments (we’re not entirely sure why) and so our predictions reflect exactly what appears on the ballots. The expanded fields of eight nominees for drama and comedy supporting acting feel generous, while the six-wide categories for lead acting still feel a bit too restrictive given the eight or nine legitimate contenders. 

We're predicting that Succession will have a *great* Emmy nomination morning

We’re betting on a shutout for Killing Eve, including last year’s Best Actress winner Jodie Comer, and just one major bid for previous Best Drama Series nominees Stranger Things and Westworld. The other serious snubs we’re predicting in each of the top series races are Big Little Lies, The Kominsky Method, and Hollywood. We’re betting, perhaps unwisely, that Andrew Scott (Black Mirror) and both Reese Witherspoon (Little Fires Everywhere) and Kerry Washington (Little Fires Everywhere) won’t make the cut. We think that This Is Us will switch places with Succession last year, earning a Best Drama Series bid but no major acting nominations (aside from the guest categories).

And our final tallies have potential double nominees Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), Pamela Adlon (Better Things), and Merritt Wever (Run) all missing out for those roles but still getting in for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, This Is Us, and Unbelievable, respectively.

• Best Series, Drama

  • Better Call Saul

  • The Crown

  • The Handmaid’s Tale

  • The Morning Show

  • Ozark

  • Pose

  • Succession

  • This Is Us

• Best Actress, Drama

  • Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)

  • Olivia Colman (The Crown)

  • Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder)

  • Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies)

  • Laura Linney (Ozark) 

  • Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)

• Best Actor, Drama

  • Jason Bateman (Ozark)

  • Brian Cox (Succession)

  • Tobias Menzies (The Crown)

  • Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)

  • Billy Porter (Pose)

  • Jeremy Strong (Succession)

• Best Supporting Actress, Drama

  • Helena Bonham Carter (The Crown)

  • Laura Dern (Big Little Lies)

  • Julia Garner (Ozark)

  • Janet McTeer (Ozark)

  • Thandie Newton (Westworld)

  • Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) 

  • Sarah Snook (Succession)

  • Meryl Streep (Big Little Lies)

• Best Supporting Actor, Drama

  • Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)

  • Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)

  • Kieran Culkin (Succession)

  • David Harbour (Stranger Things)

  • Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)

  • Josh O’Connor (The Crown)

  • Tom Pelphrey (Ozark) 

  • Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid's Tale)

• Best Guest Actress, Drama

  • Pamela Adlon (This Is Us)

  • Alexis Bledel (The Handmaid's Tale)

  • Julie Dretzin (The Handmaid’s Tale)

  • Cherry Jones (Succession)

  • Phylicia Rashad (This Is Us)

  • Cicely Tyson (How to Get Away with Murder)

• Best Guest Actor, Drama 

  • James Cromwell (Succession)

  • Charles Dance (The Crown)

  • Ron Cephas Jones (This Is Us)

  • Gerald McRaney (This Is Us)

  • Christopher Meloni (The Handmaid's Tale)

  • Dean Norris (Better Call Saul)

• Best Directing, Drama

  • Bagman (Better Call Saul)

  • Aberfan (The Crown)

  • Mayday (The Handmaid's Tale)

  • Prisoners of War (Homeland)

  • Fire Pink (Ozark)

  • Su Casa Es Mi Casa (Ozark)

  • Hunting (Succession)

  • This Is Not For Tears (Succession)

• Best Writing, Drama

  • Bagman (Better Call Saul)

  • Something Unforgivable (Better Call Saul)

  • I Want to Know (Big Little Lies)

  • Aberfan (The Crown)

  • Mayday (The Handmaid's Tale)

  • The Interview (The Morning Show)

  • Boss Fight (Ozark)

  • Hunting (Succession)

• Best Series, Comedy

  • Curb Your Enthusiasm

  • Dead to Me

  • The Good Place

  • The Great

  • Insecure

  • The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

  • Ramy

  • Schitt’s Creek 

• Best Actress, Comedy

  • Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)

  • Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • Linda Cardellini (Dead to Me)

  • Elle Fanning (The Great)

  • Catherine O'Hara (Schitt’s Creek) 

  • Issa Rae (Insecure)

• Best Actor, Comedy

  • Don Cheadle (Black Monday)

  • Ted Danson (The Good Place) 

  • Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm) 

  • Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method) 

  • Eugene Levy (Schitt’s Creek) 

  • Ramy Youssef (Ramy)

• Best Supporting Actress, Comedy

  • Hiam Abbass (Ramy)

  • Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • D'Arcy Carden (The Good Place)

  • Betty Gilpin (GLOW)

  • Marin Hinkle (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • Jane Lynch (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) 

  • Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)

  • Annie Murphy (Schitt's Creek)

• Best Supporting Actor, Comedy

  • Mahershala Ali (Ramy)

  • Louie Anderson (Baskets)

  • Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method)

  • Sterling K. Brown (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • Nicholas Hoult (The Great)

  • Dan Levy (Schitt's Creek)

  • James Marsden (Dead to Me)

  • Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) 

• Best Guest Actress, Comedy 

  • Laverne Cox (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

  • Judith Light (The Politician)

  • Bette Midler (The Politician)

  • Maya Rudolph (The Good Place)

  • Wanda Sykes (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Saturday Night Live)

• Best Guest Actor, Comedy

  • Jon Hamm (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

  • Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • Zachary Levi (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • John Mulaney (Saturday Night Live)

  • Eddie Murphy (Saturday Night Live)

  • Fred Willard (Modern Family)

• Directing, Comedy

  • Artificial Fruit (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

  • Whenever You're Ready (The Good Place)

  • The Great (The Great)

  • Marvelous Radio (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • Miakhalifa.mov (Ramy)

  • Exit Event (Silicon Valley)

  • We Love Lucy (Will and Grace)

• Best Writing, Comedy

  • Happy New Year (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

  • Whenever You're Ready (The Good Place)

  • The Great (The Great)

  • Marvelous Radio (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

  • Pilot (The Politician)

  • Bay'ah (Ramy)

  • You Are Naked In Front of Your Sheikh (Ramy)

• Best Limited Series

  • Little Fires Everywhere

  • Mrs. America

  • Unbelievable

  • Unorthodox

  • Watchmen

• Best Made for TV Movie

  • American Son

  • Bad Education

  • El Camino

  • Patsy & Loretta

  • Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend

• Best Actress, Movie or Miniseries

  • Cate Blanchett (Mrs. America)

  • Kaitlyn Dever (Unbelievable)

  • Shira Haas (Unorthodox)

  • Regina King (Watchmen)

  • Merritt Wever (Unbelievable)

• Best Actor, Movie or Miniseries

  • Russell Crowe (The Loudest Voice)

  • Jeremy Irons (Watchmen)

  • Hugh Jackman (Bad Education)

  • Aaron Paul (El Camino)

  • Mark Ruffalo (I Know This Much is True)

• Best Supporting Actress, Movie or Miniseries

  • Rose Byrne (Mrs. America)

  • Toni Collette (Unbelievable)

  • Allison Janney (Bad Education)

  • Margo Martindale (Mrs. America)

  • Sarah Paulson (Mrs. America)

  • Jean Smart (Watchmen)

• Best Supporting Actor, Movie or Miniseries

  • Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Watchmen)

  • Joe Mantello (Hollywood)

  • Tim Blake Nelson (Watchmen)

  • Jim Parsons (Hollywood)

  • John Slattery (Mrs. America)

  • John Turturro (The Plot Against America)

• Best Directing, Movie or Limited Series

  • Bad Education

  • Hooray for Hollywood (Hollywood)

  • Houston (Mrs. America)

  • Episode 1 (Unbelievable)

  • Unorthodox

  • It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice (Watchmen)

• Best Writing, Movie or Limited Series

  • Bad Education

  • A Hollywood Ending (Hollywood)

  • The Spark (Little Fires Everywhere)

  • Episode 1 (Unbelievable)

  • Part 1 (Unorthodox)

  • This Extraordinary Being (Watchmen)

Who are you predicting to get nominated, and who’s going to be snubbed in your mind?

Comments

[Joe G]

These all feel right, but I suspect there will be some bigger surprises. My hope is that the King’s get a nomination for “The Gang Deals with Alternate Reality.” I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Sandra Oh retain her spot - she’s well liked and has received nominations in the past even when her show was past its Emmy peak (2008 and 2009).

[NATHANIEL R]

I am MORTIFIED that you're predicting a complete shut out of NORMAL PEOPLE... and i'm mortified mostly because I can also easily see it happening.

[Zoooey]

If Hollywood gets writing and directing, the Emmys should be cancelled.

[Abe]

@Joe G I originally had both Comer and Oh in but I just don't think that Killing Eve has the buzz it's had in the past, especially compared to the hotter shows. It wouldn't be shocking if they got in but I would be surprised if Oh got in without Comer, who had much better material in season three.

@Nathaniel with the expanded lineups of the drama and comedy categories, it feels like the limited series/TV movie races are too restrictive. There may have been a smaller number of limited series but that doesn't mean that there aren't 8-10 deserving contenders in each of the acting categories.

[jules]

I'd be very surprised by an Uzo Aduba shutout... I think she stands a good chance of winning that category because some voters would like to feel that they are awarding Shirley Chisholm (rather like some voters liked to feel that they were awarding Judy Garland or Freddy Mercury at the past two Oscar ceremonies).

I hope Succession does this well, though.

[rdf]

Jim Parsons ??????????

I do not see Big Little Lies doing much in the noms.

[Pedro]

I am watching Pose's second season and it is really underwhelming. Way too preachy and unbelievable plots. I think it will be shut out (with the exception of Billy Porter).

[adri]

I LOATHE POSE

[Dusty]

Nicholas Hoult is NOT a supporting actor in The Great, even if he ends up with a nomination in that category.

[Abe]

@Dusty I totally agree but he so deserves a nomination.

[Give Mike Leigh an Oscar!]

Paul Mescal better show up or I'll refuse to watch.

[Tom M]

I shouldn't comment on this post given conflicts of interest but I think you have the wrong Maisel episode. Comedy or Cabbage by Amy SP is so gorgeously shot (the extended sequence with Lenny Bruce and Midge on the town in Miami is all I hear folks talking about), I think that's the directing episode at least. Maybe Dan P gets the writing nod. I'll be very interested to see if your feeling on The Great comes through...it feels like such a Globes winner but can't decide on Emmy front.

[Keith]

It would be nice if you included the names of the people who actually did the writing and directing of your hypothetical nominees.

[JaneZ]

I think The Plot Against America won't be overlooked.

[G.ShaQ]

wait - no Comedy Writing for Schitt's Creek? I feel like it will happen. I coulnd't breathe after you omitted Normal People and its actors. I may never recover

[Morgan (the 1st)]

Waaaaay too much for "The Great". It's not doing that well, if it happens at all.

[K]

Even if Killing Eve isn’t as great as it was, Jodie Comer is doing more than all of the other actress’ in the Drama Series race with the exception of Laura Linney.

[NewMoonSon]

Aunjanue Ellis > Regina/Cate/Kaitlyn/Shira/Merritt. Too bad she will more than likely be overlooked.

[Kevin]

Unorthodox and Normal People are two of the most stunning achievements in the last year and deserve a bunch of nominations. As good as some of the other mini-series are, these are the ones that linger in your memory. If enough people have seen it, they'll be in.

[Kevin]

Also, why are we not talking more about Amit Rahav in Unorthodox? He made Yanky such a beautiful, complicated person, he's more deserving of a nomination than half of the suspected nominees.

[ben1283]

Hard to imagine anyone who watched Normal People not wanting to reward Paul Mescal, and I think Normal People will be helped by the fact it was *very* bingeable, but the Emmys barely recognise non-US shows so I can equally see it being shut out. And sadly I think the same will happen with I May Destroy You next year.

[rrrich7]

I think the Best Actor, Comedy is going to be very close. You have Ted Danson (The Good Place),
Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method) (amazing that he's still getting good roles in his 4th? 5th? decade in the business), Eugene Levy (Schitt’s Creek) (so droll and wonderful) and Ramy Youssef (Ramy) who is my personal favorite. That show is so funny and yet also rewarding in that Ramy is earnestly trying to learn and be a good Muslim/person.

[Fr]

Trade overrated Parsons with Tituss making a last chance to get an Emmy for the best character on comedy tv

[John]

Normal People does NOT deserve representation. It's "13 Reasons Why" for whiners with Fine Arts degrees.

[Peggy Sue]

"I am watching Pose's second season and it is really underwhelming. Way too preachy and unbelievable plots."

Pedro, I have to give you a "Well Tamar, have you ever watched the show"? on that one!

[Manuel]

Fingers crossed for Ben Mendelsohn in the Best Actor drama for The Outsider

He was AMAZING!

[sam]

Brutal showing for Schitt's Creek if it schitts the bed in comedy directing and writing.

[Raul]

I'm joining the Normal People mob if it is snubbed altogether. I loved Watchmen but I actually forgot that Jeremy Irons is in it. Does Aaron Paul need to be recognized again for the same role he had been handsomely recognized years ago? Paul Mescal should be nominated and I think ought to win even over Hugh Jackman. I would also nominated Daisy Edgar-Jones, but best actress is a very big group. And the series, overall, is a thing of beauty. For such a simple story, it packs a wallop.

[ChrisD]

I'm worried about Unorthodox missing out despite its brilliance. If Shira misses it will be devastating but it really could happen

[JW]

I'm really hoping with the pandemic and the lack of campaigns - people saw the quality shows with all this time at home and we get major nominations for Normal People and Unorthodox over more big star campaigny type shows Little Fires and Hollywood.

[rrrich7]

To JW and Others: The name "Unorthodox" rang some sort of bell in my head, and as it rung a second and third time, I remembered what a fine show it was, and how I consumed it whole, binge watching because it was so damn good. So Yes, I would love to see if nominated for Best Drama. And plaintively ask that its 2nd season isn't too long in coming.

[jules]

I don't love Normal People, but if Hollywood or The Politician get nominated, I give up. They were probably the two worst shows I watched this year.

[J]

Four nominations for This is us in the guest category and three for The handmaid's tail seems unlikely to me, too much atention just for one show, specially if This is us has no representation for best actor. Also, is it me or supporting actress in a limited serie is the most exciting category this year?

[J]

LOL I confused tail with tale 😂 Disculpen mi inglés básico

[brandz]

There are too many nominees in each category. I think each category should be limited to 5 nominees. It's ridiculous, just my opinion.