"Trial of the Chicago 7" and Best Supporting Actor
Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 8:00PM by Nathaniel R
Abdul-Mateen, Shenkman, Rylance, Redmayne and Sharp in "Trial of the Chicago 7"
You've waited long enough. This is our latest ever take on the acting categories in 20 years of punditry. But you know, "2020". Consider it an all purpose hellscape excuse! Though Hollywood is still in disarray there will eventually be another Oscar ceremony. Nominations are still more than five months away (March 15th, 2021) so if this were any other year these prediction charts would essentially be the early August charts. Does that make sense? In other words, much about this Oscar season has yet to be revealed.
But let's take a stab at Best Supporting Actor since we've just screened The Trial of the Chicago 7 which is basically the kind of movie that dreams of, no fantasizes lustfully, about filling in all five spots. The most Supporting Actor nominations to have arrived from a single film is three, which happened thrice in Oscar history via On the Waterfront (1954), The Godfather (1972) and The Godfather Part Two (1974). It will probably not happen again with Chicago 7, but it theoretically could given that it's ALL supporting actors all the time. Let's rank them shall we, in terms of Oscar possibility...
RANKED BY MOST LIKELY TO...
1. Sacha Baron Cohen as Abbie Hoffman
This is a slam-dunk, on paper, as its a comic actor using his comic gifts but also going deeper than Oscar voters will be expecting so it's sort of a "comedian gets dramatic!" and "stealth attack" kind of thing and that's catnip to voters. Easy-peazy campaign angles. Plus, his is very easily arguable as the best performance in the film.
2. Eddie Redmayne as Tom Hayden
Oscar voters, like most awards voters in any organization, favor people they already know. What's more this is basically the marquee role as the defacto leader of the Chicago 7 (though they weren't ever a united front as that was just propaganda from their haters). The movie gives him the primary dramatic arc, too. Let's just say he has more than a few "clips".
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as Bobby Seale
His fresh Emmy win in a very competitive category suggests he's all the rage at the moment. This is a majorly sympathetic role (which often helps with Oscar) as a man wrongly accused twice over and he's quite good in it, even if the screenplay limits the notes he's called on to play. What's more the movie attempts, sometimes clumsily, to speak to the systemic racism in his particular situation which will help the campaign even if it might make the movie more divisive. I was tempted to put him above Redmayne but perhaps that's wishful thinking since I prefer the performance?
4. Frank Langella as Julius Hoffman
Oscar used to love this kind of role -- the authority figure / chief racist onscreen -- but that's no longer en vogue that way it once was in the days of, say, Rod Steiger or James Woods or we'd be talking about Oscar nominations for Bryce Dallas Howard in The Help or Topher Grace in BlacKKKlansman. That said, this previous nominee has plentiful screen time as the incompetent and corrupt judge. What's more, Langella could even win some sympathy votes since Anthony Hopkins got his role in the movie version of The Father (Langella won the Tony for it) and Hopkins will probably be competing for his second Best Actor Oscar whilst The Trial of Chicago 7 is trying to dominate this category.
5. Mark Rylance as William Kunstler
Previous Oscar winner and an actor who other actors worship. We told you with Bridge of Spies that his "legend of the stage" status would matter to Oscar voters. Some of you didn't believe us but it very much did on Oscar night when he won in a hotly contested contest. Actors tend to know the careers of esteemed stage superstars even if the general public doesn't. That said, part of his role is that Kunstler is a legendary lawyer but the movie skimps on showing us exactly why.
Beyond those five I'd say Oscar campaigns are iffy (in terms of possible success) though with a possible dearth of competition (who knows what will actually open this season) one can imagine scenarios in which Jeremy Strong (with a fresh Emmy win in mind) gets some support for his comic work as frequently stoned Jerry Rubin. Former nominee Michael Keaton also gets a cameo that the movie places lots of weight on.
PERSONAL FAVES (SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS MOVIES TAKE TIME TO SETTLE)
- Sacha Baron Cohen
- Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt
- John Carroll Lynch
P.S. SAG "OUTSTANDING CAST" NOTE.
If The Trial of The Chicago 7 gets a SAG nomination for its ensemble, which seems likely even if Oscar buzz fades, ten actors will be included. Billing order is alphabetical:
- Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
- Sacha Baron Cohen
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt
- Michael Keaton
- Frank Langella
- John Carroll Lynch
- Eddie Redmayne
- Mark Rylance
- Alex Sharp
- Jeremy Strong
Shared Title Cards (which means they won't be SAG Nominated... and we talk about this annually because the rule is so frustrating) in billing order:
- Noah Robbins (Lee Weiner) and Danny Flaherty (John Froines) who are two of the seven titular characters
- Ben Shenkman (co-council to Rylance's lawyer), Kelvin Harrison Jr as Black Panther leader Fred Hampton (curiously for this Oscar season we might have two Fred Hamptons onscreen as Daniel Kaluuya plays him in the biopic Judas and the Black Messiah though that has no set release date yet)
- Caitlin Fitzgerald (FBI witness) and Alice Kremelberg (who works for the defendants) ... they're the only female characters with more than a line or two of dialogue.
- JC MacKenzie (co-council to Gordon-Levitt's prosecuting lawyer) and John Doman (government official)
- Wayne Duvall (witness), Damian Young (government official), C.J. Wilson (witness)
Are you excited to see this one? It "opens" on Netflix on October 16th
Reader Comments (28)
On the Waterfront also scored 3 Supporting Actor nominations.
Remember when Nashville got five best supporting actress nominations and Lily Tomlin won? Yeah, that was great.
Do you know for a fact that all the actors will be campaigning as Supporting? Because I recall reading somewhere that Cohen was aiming for Best Actor instead.
It would be disappointing for a cast of all men to take the lead in the oscar race - particularly this year. That SAG Best Cast line-up - yeeeesh.
More McDormand, Zhao & Swankie please.
Thanks for bringing these back! It's going to be the most interesting Oscar season.
Ben Shenkman* not Shenkham
"Previous Oscar winner and an actor who other actors worship. We told you when Bridge of Spies was still unseen that his "legend of the stage" status would matter to Oscar voters. Some of you didn't believe us but it very much did on Oscar night."
I remember in 2015 when Nathaniel R made the first prediction in this category he had Billy Magnussen for Bridge of Spies in his Top 5 and not Mark Rylance. Obviously a lot of the comments, as far as I remember, referred to it being a mistake not to have Mark Rylance in the top 5.
I wonder if the absence of important female characters in the film could affect the reception of The Trial of the Chicago 7.
These rankings are crazy. Sacha Baron Cohen's accent was laughable at best. It is one of the worst accents I've ever heard. Everyone in the room I watched with was laughing every time he opened his mouth at how bad it was. I think Redmayne and Langella were great.
Adam -- thanks for this comment as it reinforces what ensemble films often have trouble with: getting consensus on particular performers. I'll be curious to hear more people speak to this when they see it about who was "best in show"
Harmodio -- not sure there was much they could do about the male-heavy nature of the film given that it's a true story courtroom drama and all of the participants were actually male. I think Caitlin Fitgerald got the most screentime she could have hoped for given the story but i was hoping to see more of the other woman (i'm not sure that i've seen that actress before but i liked her)
I heard Judas and the Black Messiah was being released sometime later next year.
Steven Yeun got GREAT reviews for Minari out of Sundance. I feel like that film could be a sleeper hit and he could be in contention.
Is a The Humans being released this year? Richard Jenkins and Jayne Houdyshell’s performances were Tony-nominated.
I’m sure The Trial of the Chicago 7 will be good, I just don’t want those actors to hog up this category, even though I like most of them.
I also feel like One Night in Miami could score nods for both Odom Jr and Kingsley Ben-Adir (most reviews praised his Malcom X).
Aaron -- yeah JUDAS has been cagey about the release date. So has MINARI actually and there's been not a peep about THE HUMANS. this year is in total disarray still... which is why some of the online pronouncements about who will win or be nominated i'm like "hmmm. maybe say if this movie actually comes out before March" before every sentence ;)
NATHANIEL R
You know I suspect that nowadays even if a movie is based on real events in a faithful way, there will still be criticism for lack of, for example, female characters even if it is a story of male characters. I have that impression, maybe I'm wrong.
Honestly, from what I've observed from pundits and critics on Twitter, it mostly is Cohen and Langella getting a fair amount (if not most) of the talk. But, we won't really know until the Globes, tbh!
If I had to choose categories? Redmayne and Cohen in Lead and everyone else Supporting, with a clear focus on Langella, Keaton, Rylance, Abdul-Mateen and Gordon-Levitt. In that order.
My personal MVP(s)? Redmayne and Cohen.
Yes, please don't forget On the Waterfront also had 3 nominees in Best Supporting Actor. It has happened 3 times in Oscar history.
So, it begins...
morganb, are you literally suggesting that because a movie is mostly male, it simply cannot be a frontrunner for the Oscar race, regardless of the quality? Can you explain this train of thought? Because, to me, it seems simply absurd.
Eddie "JK Rowling copping criticism is as bad as those facing transphobia everyday' Redmayne can go fuck himself. I don't hate his Oscar win as I'm a bit underwhelmed by the nominees that year. Gyllanhaal or Fiennes should have cakewalked it, and if you go for a real life Brit story Cumberbatch was right there and better. Heck upgrade Simmons if you want!
His Danish Girl performance and east stroll to nominations was gross. It was adequate at best, an poor affected misfire at worst. Or at reality. Again he benefits from a year where awards groups didn't look far outside the typical bait. Trembley should have easily taken his place or even Carrell in The Big Short. Heck upgrade Bale and Ruffalo to avoid this blight.
Michael Stuhlbarg was terrific in Shirley. He's my favourite supporting performance so far this year.
Chicago 7 could easily get 2 nominees, they don't dislike that in the supporting categories, but I would bet on Rylance being one of them.
Am I remembering correctly that 5 films total have gotten triple acting nominations. In addition to the three aforementioned films in Best Supporting Actor, Mutiny on the Bounty scored triple noms in Best Actor and Tom Jones in Supporting Actress. All five films won Best Picture...……
I really like most of these actors but I can't abide Redmayne. (And I thought his accent sounded terrible in the trailer.) It will be so disappointing if he scores a nod over Cohen, Strong, Mateen, Lynch, Keaton, et al.
The Minari trailer is out today, so it should certainly be a 2020 Oscar year release.
I predict Frank Langella a veteran in a showy part never won and well respected.
i know it's your bread and butter but punditry is your most boring feature. It's fun to do and all, but when you make it a pressure filled enterprise it really becomes a slog. Stick to the love of movies and you'll be golden!
Ira -- not sure you understand how "bread and butter" works ;) My love of movies has never been in any danger of going away. But Punditry isn't going anywhere either.
Mark -- i get that. It could well happen. I do wonder how much staying power this will have, though, and if anyone will be able to agree on any contender from it.
Jules -- i'll be thrilled if Minari comes out this year but trailers have been all over the place. Like Judas the Black Messiah has a trailer but lost its release date. And French Dispatch had a trailer a long time ago and also lost both of its release dates.
Sacha Baron Cohen is exactly the kind of person that will never get an Oscar nomination. He's in the Lopez, Aniston, Sandler team, not the Mccarthy, Carrell one.
I hope Sacha Baron Cohen gets nom'd! The nominations are overall pointless so I don't care about the performance. I love him as an actor/comedian, and I always wanted him to play Freddie Mercury and thought that would be his Oscar nom. Obviously that ended up going another direction...
Dl - thanks for reminding me how upset I still am that they snubbed JLo last year... and for Kathy Bates in that awful Eastwood movie. Nauseating.
To be clear for Dl and all in the comments - Cohen *is* a nominee, already. Best Adapted Screenplay for BORAT. So in a sense he’s already in the club.
I would also argue Mark Rylance will be one of their biggest pushes - he’s in many ways the conscience of the film, he’s a classy prestige player in a compassionate supporting part. He’s used pretty steadily throughout, and it’d provide a follow up nomination to his BoS win (think like Paul Scofield getting nominated for Quiz Show over more obvious parts).
They won’t sacrifice anybody to lead actor?
Glenn -- i mean, they might. Who knows? If they do it'll be Eddie Redmayne (I think)
Oh god, i just watched this. They're almost all wasted. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II is easily my favourite, but his character is treated appallingly by the script. I also liked Lynch, but then yet again the script screws him over by taking the big moment from him (the reading of the Vietnam soldiers names) and giving it to Eddie bloody Redmayne.