Kidman rising, Stewart holding for Best Actress. But who else?
Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 3:55PM by Nathaniel R
Our favourite category! Not that Oscar chooses well but it's always the best acting category IN THEORY. So let's discuss Best Actress. You know you want to.
THE SURE THINGS
While Kristen Stewart has maintained the early frontrunner lead handily for her work as Princess Diana in Spencer, response to this past week's screenings of Being the Ricardos have suggested that Nicole Kidman could overthrow her for Oscar #2 for her work as Lucille Ball. She's sensational in the film, doing really interesting work (vocally and physically) differentiating between Lucille Ball and Lucy Ricardo, and also marrying some elusive internal issues like creativity, inspiration, ambition, with external stuff like a chain-smokers voice and the drama of the plot and multiple interpersonal conflicts. Ball's tetchy relationships and hot/cold rapports with each I Love Lucy cast and crew member is brilliantly differentiated and articulated. Besides, if any current one-time acting winner deserves a second statue, it's Kidman. This theoretical competition between Stewart and Kidman is interesting because both films originally raised eyebrows with their casting...
It doesn't get much more American Millenial casual vibe specific than KStew tasked with playing a legendary member of the stuffy British aristocracy. Kidman was met with all kinds of resistance when it was announced that she would be replacing Cate Blanchett as the famous midcentury comic icon. That public disapproval lasted from the casting announcement until the first day of screenings, flaring up with each new paparazzi set shot or trailer. But she aces the assignment, proving that it's a) really unwise to base your take on a performance on a trailer and b) even more unwise to doubt Nicole Kidman after all these years of giving major performances, often in unexpected roles and projects.
WHO ELSE?
The question of who will join Kristen and Nicole feels a lot more volatile with new arguments daily as to what the combo of five will look like. Two more movies with female leads are about to start screening (Jennifer Lawrence in Don't Look Up and Rachel Zegler in West Side Story) which could confuse things even further.
HOW MANY BIOGRAPHIES ARE TOO MANY BIOGRAPHIES?
The Academy's probable answer, given all the evidence, is "there are never too many!!!" Though the internet (at large) thinks Jessica Chastain is in danger for her dazzling performance in The Eyes of Tammy Faye we don't know that that's true. She finally has a project that could bring her nomination number three given that Oscar's all time favourite subgenre (statistically) is dramas about real life famous people whether they happen to be pure biopics like Jessica's or Jennifer Hudson's Aretha Franklin picture Respect, or if they lean more into true infamous story than 'story of a life!' as with Lady Gaga's star turn in House of Gucci. All three of those performance are big and showy which helps even if it shouldn't be an automatic plus. But if all three are nominated alongside Nicole & Kristen we would have a category that's 100% non-fictional characters which is improbable. Even knowing Oscar's preference for that kind of movie the most we've ever had in Best Actress is three at a time (unless we're forgetting an odd year with four?).
THREE PREVIOUS WINNERS ARE ALSO IN PLAY
Given that Olivia Colman is an actor's actor and has already won raves for The Lost Daughter she has to be considered a major threat for the lineup. While it's true that the character is thorny and unlikeable in some ways, Oscar has less trouble with that then they used to. Two more previous winners, Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers and Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of Macbeth have some buzz but how much? We're betting that Cruz has a lot more of it since its a much larger role and she's greatly missed while AMPAS might need a short breather from McDormand after her third win. On the other hand Sony Pictures Classics is risking a Christmas launch for the new Almodóvar which feels optimistic. Foreign titles generally need time to build with Oscar, even if they come from recognizable names. And her campaign won't have the natural boost of Parallel Mothers competing for Best International Feature, since it's not eligible there.
RISKIER BETS
Critics have gone wild for Alana Haim's charismatic acting debut in Licorice Pizza but the stuffier members of the Academy probably won't love Paul Thomas Anderson's nutty meandering 70s romp or its central romance (between a 25 year old woman and an, uh, 15 year old boy!). Tessa Thompson is just amazing in Passing, but Oscar voters have often struggled with subtle internal performances (even when they're this good). Jodie Comer has developed a passionate fanbase these past few years and received sterling reviews for The Last Duel but the film was labelled a "flop" by the media and that never helps with Oscar campaigns.
EXTREME LONGSHOTS
Had NEON actually given the romantic dramedy Worst Person in the World a big push and normal release we might have seen Reinate Reinsve capitalize on her Best Actress Cannes win but they're clearly just banking on a Best International Feature nomination in order to properly release one of the year's very best films (sigh). If Oscar voters were more adventurous by nature maybe we'd all be talking about Taylour Paige, another dazzling fresh star, in the hilarious and risqué Zola.
Other actresses that will have their fans but we dont think enough of them in this particular contest are Halle Berry in Bruised, Virginie Efira in Benedetta, Seidi Harla in Compartment No 6, Emilia Jones in CODA and more. The list goes on. Another fantastic year for leading ladies. Really every year is fantastic for worthy leading ladies but the media and the Academy dont always notice that fact.
UPDATED CHARTS
BEST ACTRESS
BEST ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
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Reader Comments (25)
Being the Ricardos is generating very good early buzz and is far more AMPAS friendly than Spencer or House of Gucci.
Just as I suspected, Kidman can easily destroy Stewart, Chaistain and Gaga's Oscar hopes.
Are we getting another nail-biter Best Actress race? I hope so.
This category really is stacked again. So much better than in the not-too-distant past (1994, 2004) when it was a struggle to find 5 exceptional contenders.
I'm really doubting Gaga based on her accent and delivery in the trailer (I know, too soon to judge) and fear that Tessa Thompson's performance is a little too subtle here (although I wasn't quite as over the moon for it as you were; a couple of her line readings were very actorly and mannered). That said, my guess at the moment is:
1. Stewart - Spencer
2. Kidman - Ricardos
3. Colman - Lost Daughter
4. Chastain - Tammy Faye
5. Cruz - Mothers
I haven't seen enough of these to make a truly educated guess, but of those I have seen I'd rank Oscar nomination chances like so:
1. Stewart
2. Chastain
3. McDormand
4. Reinsve
5. Hudson (I just don't see this happening, but I could be very wrong)
6. Cotillard
Really looking to seeing the performances from Thompson, Kidman, Cruz, Zegler, Colman, Haim and Comer, though (obviously).
I'm really surprised at the reaction to Kidman,saying Oscar No 2 is saying she's topping herself and with her that's hard,so excited for it now.
Any chance the supporting actors make it,
I'm feeling this line up as of now Colman,Cruz,Thompson,Stewart and Kidman.
Kidman is such a one-note actress... if she, indeed, pulls off the nuances of Ball, she may very well deserve a nom.
Her first Oscar was not deserved IMO... Both Streep and Moore were far better in their roles.
We shall see... I still like Chastain a lot.
I'm not surprised that Kidman would get raves in an industry screening, but I think we're going to see mass critical and public reactions to her performance to know if she's in or not. She's a brilliant actress - one of my favorites - but the SAG/Globes always nominate her, when Oscar has been far more resistant. I think she'll need a bit of extra buzz to make it across the finish line. However, she has the benefit of being with a studio that really wants to get her a nomination and has the resources to do it.
I am suspicious of Stewart as the frontrunner. Her film has been such a box office flop that it's hard to see her winning for it. In the past decade, Brie Larson starred in the lowest grossing film, and that still made 3 times its budget. Spencer would need to make 54 million, and it's at 6 million now. While it won't lose as much money as something Aretha, it will still be a loser given, what I suspect, is its giant box office haul.
I think Cruz will slip into the top 5. The internationalization of the academy will help her out. I think it's hard to argue against Colman, who is essentially in the Jennifer Lawrence in the early 2010s phase of her career. Or maybe Judi Dench in the late 90s/early 2000s?
How many times has Kidman been supposedly in line for her second (or even a nod)? I'll believe it when it happens.
Are we getting a 'Being the Ricardos' review from you soon, Nathaniel?
I'm very excited to hear such good buzz. It's so early in the race, but Kidman would really have a great narrative for a second win. She's arguably been undernominate and has had such a career resurgence in recent years... she was underappreciated by general audiences for a long time but Big Lilttle Lies really changed that. Let's hope she can bank and get another Oscar before her diminishing returns in TV choices spoil the run!
Also really curious to hear whether Bardem' s a likely nominee. It'd be really cool if he and Penélope got it! I'm really hoping she will.
Is Stewart actually the frontrunner or is it just the role?
As much as I love the idea that Nicole can just waltz and grab the ring, I'm going to continue quietly rooting for Penelope to do what Antonio couldn't.
I have to think if Kidman is as good as you say she is, she will be a lock for a nom and one of the frontrunners for a win. It's Lucille Ball, for crying out loud. That alone will give her a huge edge.
@ Carlos
Reviews are embargoed til December.
@ Arlo
Stewart is the frontrunner for a nomination at this point, not necessarily for a win.
Stewart seems like she doesn't really give a shit. And that might hurt her chances at winning or even being nominated! As much as critics will want to shower her in wins, it'll be hard for AMPAS to get behind someone who doesn't care. And before anyone else brings her up, Monique was more of an outlier!
My choices would be:
Jessica Chastain
Nicole Kidman
Kristen Stewart
Tessa Thompson
Penelope Cruz
Not buying Gaga and def not another Judy in Hudson
Agree that Kidman could be a challenger to Stewart's frontrunner status, but we'll have to see how the industry awards play out and whether or not Stewart's tetchy relationship with press/campaigning with affect her win chances.
I honestly struggle to see Chastain going all the way to a nomination - it's very good work but the whole movie (release strategy, tone, performances) reminds me of Battle of the Sexes and its total shut-out on nomination day. I see Chastain/Garfield getting similar response at Globes/SAG and missing Oscars for buzzier movies. With how competitive the field is, I just don't see the passion for rewarding Chastain for *this* specific film.
Gaga feels like a miss to me given that the performance is quite divisive and the film went from being some peoples' presumptive frontrunner to a close-to-fringe contender in Picture.
Colman feels like a very reasonable bet given the reviews and how well liked she is as a performer. I think Comer and McDormand could rally (and Hudson to a lesser degree) based on their reviews of career statures.
I think you might be seriously underestimating Alana Haim's chances for a nomination - she's gotten *GREAT* reviews and I'm starting to suspect she'll take a lions share of the critics prizes from Stewart (think 2018 Best Actor, critics loved Ethan Hawke and Bradley Cooper, but Cooper wasn't seen as an underdog so they rallied behind Hawke - Stewart is Cooper, Haim is Hawke). She's also in a likely across the board contender with stand-out reviews. I know she's fresh in the industry, but stranger things have certainly happened, and with the logjam of contenders in this category, having a LOT of passion and being in a Best Picture nominee will count for a lot.
I think you are right that Best Actress has never had more than 3 biographical roles nominated in a single year, but it has happened a bunch of times in Best Actor (2018, 2015, 2014, 2004 are recent examples) so I don't think the Academy is necessarily averse to it if the performances click.
That said I don't feel it happening this year... seems like at best one of Chastain / Gaga / Hudson sneaks in. The performances in fictional roles - Colman, Cruz, Haim, McDormand, potentially Lawrence or Zegler - feel too strong to shut out.
Since Macbeth is a historical character, Lady M is also a biographical role, albeit a fictionalized one. But all the other contenders' portrayals are fictionalized (especially Larraín's Diana).
I have a funny feeling that Jennifer Hudson will sneak into the 5th slot for Best Actress, never under-estimate the power of an early Oscar narrative plus a famous musician's bio-pic. I can see Chastain missing out.
For now, my gut says Cruz, Hudson, Kidman, McDormand and Stewart - with Kidman triumphing.
My gut tells me Chastain is in. They may not like the movie at all, but they respect her a lot. Other high profile performances from the past and present will help her to a nomination. My gut also tells me Gaga is out this time, that performance looks like pure camp going by the trailer, but maybe she'll surprise me. It will be an uphill battle for Thompson, her performance is too understated and she's outshined a bit by Negga. So Stewart, Kidman, Chastain and then 2 of Hudson, Cruz, Zegler & Colman for the last 2 slots.
Apologies for the double post.
This is not a prediction yet, as I haven't seen Kidman, McDormand, Lawrence, Gaga, Zegler, Haim, Berry or Colman yet (of those that are mentioned here), but my personal TOP5 favorite female leads this year so far (and I've seen "only" 490 films :)) are:
1. Jessica Chastain - Eyes of Tammy Faye
2. Kristen Stewart - Spencer
3. Essie Davis - Justice of Bunny King (if this is even released in US?)
4. Maren Eggert - Ich bin dein Mensch (winner at Berlinale and better than Cruz, Harala or Reinsve, if they are going for someone in a non-english role, then it should be this one!)
5. Charlotte Rampling - Juniper (if it's even released in US?)
I wonder how much academy members loved Cruella... otherwise Emma Stone shouldn't be fully neglected just yet either.
So happy to hear that Kidman is great from you, Nathaniel. That alone (the not another Grace of Monaco situation) makes me so relieved. I really hope she gets a nom and a win. She's long overdue.
I know I'm in the gay minority, but I can't stand Stewart. I think she's a laughable actress and I have never been impressed by any of her adult work. So I'm ready to be proven wrong this time.
I have seen Tammy Faye and Chastain is very hit or miss for me. But I thought she was by far the only enjoyable aspect of the movie, which was pretty bad whenever she wasn't on screen.
Would love to see Cruz get another nomination.
And let's give McDormand a rest already.
So happy to hear that Kidman is great from you, Nathaniel. That alone (the not another Grace of Monaco situation) makes me so relieved. I really hope she gets a nom and a win. She's long overdue.
I know I'm in the gay minority, but I can't stand Stewart. I think she's a laughable actress and I have never been impressed by any of her adult work. So I'm ready to be proven wrong this time.
I have seen Tammy Faye and Chastain is very hit or miss for me. But I thought she was by far the only enjoyable aspect of the movie, which was pretty bad whenever she wasn't on screen.
Would love to see Cruz get another nomination.
And let's give McDormand a rest already.
I saw Spencer last night and really loved it. I hope Kristen wins. She killed that role.
And then Kirsten can win supporting. ;)
Kristen + Kirsten Oscars. How cute.