Let's talk about Oscar's screenplay races
Thursday, February 11, 2021 at 11:00AM by Nathaniel R
"Mank" is about the writing of a legendary screenplay. That should do the trick.
Are there locks in the Screenplay categories? At the moment both races feel almost settled (aside from hugely competitive fifth slots) though the WGA nominations arrive on February 16th which could theoretically disrupt the consensus punditry.
ORIGINAL
In the original race Mank, Minari, Promising Young Woman, and Trial of the Chicago 7 all feel like certainties but are they? That's too many locks prior to the WGA nominations and leaves only one spot open. That hypothetical fifth spot battle has a lot of strong fighters...
Never Rarely Sometimes Always has won consistent praise for almost a solid year which has to count for something (in this case Academy members actually watching the movie). Sound of Metal is very moving and still feels like its gathering momentum, its profile considerably heightened by Riz Ahmed's strong precursor showing. Animated hits do occassional pop here so you can't count Soul out. The writing branch liked Spike Lee before the rest of AMPAS came around so Da 5 Bloods remains a distinct possibility, too. Judas and the Black Messiah hopes to be a late blooming hit with voters. Finally the writing branch has never been entirely immune to comic hits so Palm Springs is a loveable long shot. Anything else is certainly too far behind but the writers have a lot to choose from given that there's idiosyncratic comedies (The 40 Year Old Version, On the Rocks, Kajillionaire) and dramatic indie darlings (The Assistant, I Carry You With Me, Miss Juneteenth, The Nest) to siphon some votes away from the presumed frontrunners. My current guess is passionate support for Sound of Metal as a whole film, puts it over the edge though I worry that that same guess is wishful thinking which is a common pitfall of punditry. [My own ballot in case you missed it]
Charlie Kaufman on the set of "i'm thinking of ending things"
ADAPTED
This competition has the exact same settled 'but is it really?' feel. Nomadland as the Best Picture frontrunner and One Night in Miami as the writerly battle of ideas are surely locks. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom will secure a nomination unless enough voters feel like there wasn't much adaptation going on from stage to film on multiple levels (a common complaint about the film). Those who've seen The Father would never imagine that it could be left out here... but there's always the worry that Sony Pictures Classics just isn't pushing hard enough. So again there's a hypothetic fifth slot battle. News of the World currently has the momentum though some may view it as more as a craft and directorial achievement. First Cow has critical passion and would make a lot of sense as a screenplay-only contender though that besotted critical fandom might have much less influence on voters than usual since Nomadland usurped so much of the conversation in that regard. You can never count out beloved writers so Charlie Kaufman (3 writing nominations and 1 win) is still a threat for I'm Thinking of Ending Things. If there's a surprise contender the previously nominated pair of Armando Iannucci and Simon Blackwell (1 nomination for In the Loop) are right there with The Personal History of David Copperfield. Other longshots include Emma, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and White Tiger. My current guess is that News of the World's momentum and old-school likeability will pay off... but it's not a confident guess. [My own ballot in case you missed it]
Who do you think is conquering those fifth spot battles... or do you think one of the presumed locks is actually not going to happeen?
Reader Comments (17)
Sound of Metal and First Cow being nominated would be amazing.
The 40 Year Old Version deserves it over anything else in Original. Unfortunately, AMPAS will nominate something embarrassing like Sound of Metal.
First Cow feels safe as the fifth pick in Adapted.
I think both races seem pretty closed by now... Sorkin and Zhao.
I would love for Palm Springs and The 40 Year Old Version. While for the most part best picture should align with screenplay noms, I wouldn't mind these two films knocking off a movie like "Never Rarely Sometimes Always"--which I think is a great movie but is really made by the lead performance and Eliza Hittman's direction than the screenplay.
Reminder that BORAT 1 was also an Oscar nominee for Best Orig. Screenplay
I'm Thinking of Ending Things felt like a first draft to me.
I agree with most of this except that I think "Ma Rainey" will be a surprise omission for the reasons stated -- doesn't seem like much adapting went on (although other stage-to-screen works have gotten nominated despite similar complaints). I'm thinking "First Cow" makes it instead.
The Boys in The Band shock nomination in adapted.
First Cow is unfortunately not going to happen.
I'm Thinking of Ending Things will just be another Confession of A Dangerous Mind.
I think Palm Springs and Borat 2 will take the 5th slots, they love to add some light-heartened comedy in these situations.
I keep thinking about something Erik Anderson from AwardsWatch has mentioned a few times which is, the winner of Best Film at the NYFCC has always been nominated for at least one Oscar (and that's 85 years of history). Of course First Cow could be the exception or it could be nominated elsewhere, but Adapted Screenplay seems to be its safest bet and besides that's a huge stat to break.
JW I would jizz my black skinny jeans if that happened.
After a decade of great writing, it would be great to see Derek Cianfrance get his first nomination.
DAVID, "Borat" happened in adaptes field.
'...Chicago 7" and "Mank", IMO, feel like default nominees and it would be truly unsatysfying if one of them wins.
arlo -- i agree. It has brilliant moments (conceptually it not entirely in execution) but it's way too long for what it's trying to do for one.
Jess -- how on earth is SOUND OF METAL embarassing. such a great movie.
The screenplay nominations are usually a better group than best picture and best director. It makes me cautiously optimistic.
Just finished watching The Assistant...with 10 nominees between the two categories, films like this always have a shot..tho clearly more of a director's film. There isn't even dialogue for close to 20min. And it goes thru other stretches much the same.
I can think of no one to ask who might be likelier to have this answer, Nathaniel: is The Dig eligible for this Oscar race? If not, why exactly? And if so, why is it getting ZERO buzz? I would think, at the very least, Fiennes should be in the conversation.