Oscar Race: Best Actress won't settle!

by Nathaniel R

The Golden Globes threw a molotov cocktail at the Best Actress race last night. Pundits have mostly agreed that four spots were cemented with Viola Davis, Carey Mulligan, Frances McDormand, and Vanessa Kirby as the leaders. The fifth spot was deemed up for grabs with some growing sentiment that it would be Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) emerging from behind (without precursors) to score that contentious final seat in the throne room. But last night the Globes did some very loud FYCing for both Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) and Andra Day (United States vs Billie Holiday), both of whom starred in 2021 pictures vying for the "best of 2020" honors due to the extended eligibility period. In other words, it paid to wait until the last second with the Globes this year.

Will these two wins affect the Oscar ballots which go out this Friday? Let's discuss after the jump...

The win for Andra Day is very good news for her, and not just because the fifth spot is competitive and therefore any boost helps. In Globe history, it's extremely rare for the Best Actress Drama winner not to score a subsequent Oscar nomination. In fact, it's only happened twice in history:

• Shirley Maclaine, Madame Souzatska (1988)
• Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road (2008)

Both of those cases have extenuating circumstances: Maclaine was part of the only Best Actress Drama tie in Globe history, a three way tie at that, and the other two scored nominations;  Winslet had another option for voters that year with The Reader so she was nominated, just not for that specific film. Statistically speaking it would be incredibly bizarre for Andra Day to miss.

But far more important than a vote of approval from the HPFA is the fact that Andra Day's role is EXACTLY what Oscar loves to reward... even if she's lost the Globe. "Oscar bait" may be an overused phrase but this role more than qualifies. It has everything that proves endlessly alluring to voters: biographical in nature (they far prefer real characters to fictional ones), addiction (they've loved that for decades), musical in nature (biopics of musicians are an especially big Oscar draw), incredible beauty with willingness to deglam (Day pulling off Billie at her most glamorous and her most sickly), and being a fresh face (this last bit only applies to women but they've always preferred new or rising actresses in their late twenties to late thirties best -- Day is 36 and nw to film -- and they've never expected them to pay their dues before a first nomination as they often do with men.)

Rosamund Pike, on the other hand, is more likely to be a Globe blip. It's far more common for winners in Comedy/Musicals to miss an Oscar nomination though even that statistic has been wearing down in "The Great and Horrible Fusing of All Awards Group Tastes Into One"  that we've been seeing develop over the best 20 years as disagreements beetween the ever increasing amount of awards bodies on what is "best" have varied less and less. The Globe Comedy Actress winner used to miss an Oscar nod 40%-50% of the time but lately the winners are only missing 20% of the time. Here's who that's happened to in the past:

• June Allyson, Too Young to Kiss (1951)
• Ethel Merman, Call Me Madam (1953)
• Jean Simmons, Guys and Dolls (1955)
• Taina lg & Kay Kendall, Les Girls (1957)
• Marilyn Monroe, Some Like it Hot (1959)

• Rosalind Russell, A Majority of One (1961)
• Rosalind Russell, Gypsy (1962)
• Patty Duke, Me Natalie (1969)

• Twiggy, The Boyfriend (1971)
• Raquel Welch, Three Musketeers (1974)
• Barbra Streisand, A Star is Born (1976)

• Bernadette Peters, Pennies from Heaven (1981)
• Kathleen Turner, Romancing the Stone (1984)
• Kathleen Turner, Prizzi's Honor (1985)

• Miranda Richardson, Enchanted April (1992)
• Jamie Lee Curtis, True Lies (1994)
• Nicole Kidman, To Die For (1995)
• Madonna, Evita (1996)

• Renée Zellweger, Nurse Bety (2000)
• Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky (2008)

• Amy Adams, Big Eyes (2014)
• Awkwafina, The Farewell (2019)

All of which suggests that Pike is statistically closer to her second Oscar nomination than we might have expected yesterday afternoon. On the other hand, Oscar isn't super keen on evil women OR comedy work (except in the supporting actress category where the two things are welcom) so we don't think Pike is going to happen, Globe win aside.

Here's the thing, though. Last week I was ready to change my 5th spot prediction to Sophia Loren (due to the film's overperformance on finalist lists and the double Globe nod. But this week Andra Day seems like the one. So let's posit a new theory. It's Vanessa Kirby who is going to miss with Pieces of a Woman less and less discussed as the weeks go by and Loren fandom humming at a steady pace while Day continues to rise. As for Pfeiffer (a Globe nominee) and Adams (a SAG nominee) we suspect the road ends here. 

CHECK OUT THE REVISED OSCAR CHART

Comments

[Chinoiserie]

I don’t know how you see Loren having much changes, I think that’s one of those actresses this site likes to predict but it won’t happen at this point. Most voters don’t obsess over narratives or precursors and they are more subconscious influence so you can’t so directly say who is rising unless it’s something big like Andra Day winning the Globe that will get everyone’s attention at the right time (not quite enough for Pike but similary she is closer than Loren).

[NATHANIEL R]

Chinoiserie -- agree to disagree on Loren being way behind (though i absolutely agree that most voters dont obsess over narratives and that they're just influences on ways of thinking). The Oscars are a very different voting body than the Globes. It would be utterly shocking if Pike was nominated (the role is nothing like what Oscar enjoys honoring and she's also not an Academy favourite or a legend) . whereas in retrospect if Pfeiffer or Loren or Adams manage it everyone will go "of course" retroactively due to their fame, legend, and/or previous Oscar darling status.

I personally dont think Loren deserves it but the Oscars have loved her extrarodinarily. I'm still confused why they felt they needed to give her an Honorary since she's already won an Oscar. To me that's a symbol that they're obsessed with her legend.

it's very possible the Globe Drama lineup transfers exactly. It's the most logical outcome. but for now i'm going with Loren as being the unsurprising surprise.

[Tony T]

so many great performances this year! I haven't seen Andra Day yet but is she better than McDormand, Kirby, Davis, Pike and Mulligan?
If she's not, it would be such a shame to miss out on rewarding those performances. Kirby is my favorite but a win is not happening. I think it is going to be McDormand again this year. Chloe Zhao graceful acceptance speech makes people want to keep showering the movie with awards.
Han Yeri was exceptional. I would include her in my top 5 too. Pike was perfect. If absolutely forced to pick 5 they would be: Yeri, McDormand, Kirby, Pike and Davis. With Mulligan very close. Oh and Flanigan!

[James walker]

I think Loren will make thecut. The bst supp actress is gonna be a tough one Sygfried was the fav so is Close but justbecause Foster won in the catagory. Gg has known to give supp actress awards that dont get an Oscar nom like Karen Black in The Great Gatsby and Katherine Ross for Voyage of The Damned

[James walker]

Per supp actresd noms for Oscar i dont think Foster will make the cut. The GGs hve given awards to katen Black and Katarine Ross wins in this catagory but neither went on tonreceive Oscar noms

[James walker]

Per supp actresd noms for Oscar i dont think Foster will make the cut. The GGs hve given awards to katen Black and Katarine Ross wins in this catagory but neither went on tonreceive Oscar noms

[Alex]

Davis
Day
Pfeiffer
McDormand
Mulligan

[Harry]

Nomination likelihood:

1. Viola Davis
2. Frances McDorman
3. Carey Mulligan
4. Andra Day
5. Rosamund Pike
6. Amy Adams
7. Vanessa Kirby
8. Sophia Loren

[gabriel]

McDormand
Mulligan
Day
Davis
Kirby

[Working stiff]

@ James walker

But neither of them was a four-time nominee and two-time winner like Foster.

(And the nominees for Best Actress are
Viola Davis
Andra Day
Vanessa Kirby
Frances McDormand
Carey Mulligan)

[rrrich7]

I guess some would consider I Care A Lot as black comedy, but I thought it was just mean-spirited. Meanwhile, I would really hate to see Vanessa Kirby not make the Oscar noms; I thought Pieces of a Woman was fantastic and she was 90% of it. And I predict that McDormand will not win her 3rd Oscar. Considering Meryl's example, she's going to have to do more than Nomadland to earn #3. Besides, I thought Nomadland was in some ways quite boring.

[Matty]

McDormand
Mulligan
Day
Davis
Kirby

[JF]

Kirby feels like the contender hardest hit by the lack of traditional campaigning—some red carpets and a premiere, roundtable photoshoot, etc. would have helped her and her little movie.

[Michelle P.]

Hey at least Pffeifer delusion has a fun fresh Loren delusion to join it this year, so let's let Nathaniel have his fun, especially since Bakalova is completely finished and the Academy will choose Close by default.

[Dave in Hollywood]

I'm only halfway through US vs. Billie Holiday but right now, I'd say I absolutely understand why she won the Globe. It's a huge role, she's not half bad, her singing is spot on, and she's new. If enough people see it, she will be a serious contender for a nomination and the win.

If Jennifer Hudson can win for far less, then...