Oscar Race: Best Actress won't settle!
Monday, March 1, 2021 at 4:24PM by Nathaniel R
The Golden Globes threw a molotov cocktail at the Best Actress race last night. Pundits have mostly agreed that four spots were cemented with Viola Davis, Carey Mulligan, Frances McDormand, and Vanessa Kirby as the leaders. The fifth spot was deemed up for grabs with some growing sentiment that it would be Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) emerging from behind (without precursors) to score that contentious final seat in the throne room. But last night the Globes did some very loud FYCing for both Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) and Andra Day (United States vs Billie Holiday), both of whom starred in 2021 pictures vying for the "best of 2020" honors due to the extended eligibility period. In other words, it paid to wait until the last second with the Globes this year.
Will these two wins affect the Oscar ballots which go out this Friday? Let's discuss after the jump...
The win for Andra Day is very good news for her, and not just because the fifth spot is competitive and therefore any boost helps. In Globe history, it's extremely rare for the Best Actress Drama winner not to score a subsequent Oscar nomination. In fact, it's only happened twice in history:
- Shirley Maclaine, Madame Souzatska (1988)
- Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road (2008)
Both of those cases have extenuating circumstances: Maclaine was part of the only Best Actress Drama tie in Globe history, a three way tie at that, and the other two scored nominations; Winslet had another option for voters that year with The Reader so she was nominated, just not for that specific film. Statistically speaking it would be incredibly bizarre for Andra Day to miss.
But far more important than a vote of approval from the HPFA is the fact that Andra Day's role is EXACTLY what Oscar loves to reward... even if she's lost the Globe. "Oscar bait" may be an overused phrase but this role more than qualifies. It has everything that proves endlessly alluring to voters: biographical in nature (they far prefer real characters to fictional ones), addiction (they've loved that for decades), musical in nature (biopics of musicians are an especially big Oscar draw), incredible beauty with willingness to deglam (Day pulling off Billie at her most glamorous and her most sickly), and being a fresh face (this last bit only applies to women but they've always preferred new or rising actresses in their late twenties to late thirties best -- Day is 36 and nw to film -- and they've never expected them to pay their dues before a first nomination as they often do with men.)
Rosamund Pike, on the other hand, is more likely to be a Globe blip. It's far more common for winners in Comedy/Musicals to miss an Oscar nomination though even that statistic has been wearing down in "The Great and Horrible Fusing of All Awards Group Tastes Into One" that we've been seeing develop over the best 20 years as disagreements beetween the ever increasing amount of awards bodies on what is "best" have varied less and less. The Globe Comedy Actress winner used to miss an Oscar nod 40%-50% of the time but lately the winners are only missing 20% of the time. Here's who that's happened to in the past:
- June Allyson, Too Young to Kiss (1951)
- Ethel Merman, Call Me Madam (1953)
- Jean Simmons, Guys and Dolls (1955)
- Taina lg & Kay Kendall, Les Girls (1957)
- Marilyn Monroe, Some Like it Hot (1959)
- Rosalind Russell, A Majority of One (1961)
- Rosalind Russell, Gypsy (1962)
- Patty Duke, Me Natalie (1969)
- Twiggy, The Boyfriend (1971)
- Raquel Welch, Three Musketeers (1974)
- Barbra Streisand, A Star is Born (1976)
- Bernadette Peters, Pennies from Heaven (1981)
- Kathleen Turner, Romancing the Stone (1984)
- Kathleen Turner, Prizzi's Honor (1985)
- Miranda Richardson, Enchanted April (1992)
- Jamie Lee Curtis, True Lies (1994)
- Nicole Kidman, To Die For (1995)
- Madonna, Evita (1996)
- Renée Zellweger, Nurse Bety (2000)
- Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky (2008)
- Amy Adams, Big Eyes (2014)
- Awkwafina, The Farewell (2019)
All of which suggests that Pike is statistically closer to her second Oscar nomination than we might have expected yesterday afternoon. On the other hand, Oscar isn't super keen on evil women OR comedy work (except in the supporting actress category where the two things are welcom) so we don't think Pike is going to happen, Globe win aside.
Here's the thing, though. Last week I was ready to change my 5th spot prediction to Sophia Loren (due to the film's overperformance on finalist lists and the double Globe nod. But this week Andra Day seems like the one. So let's posit a new theory. It's Vanessa Kirby who is going to miss with Pieces of a Woman less and less discussed as the weeks go by and Loren fandom humming at a steady pace while Day continues to rise. As for Pfeiffer (a Globe nominee) and Adams (a SAG nominee) we suspect the road ends here.
CHECK OUT THE REVISED OSCAR CHART
Reader Comments (65)
Rosamund Pike, Please!!
The category confusion doesn’t help, but if the Academy really takes to Minari could Han Yeri surprise?
I didn't love I Care a Lot (what was with that third act and WTF did Wiest's character go to?) but I enjoyed Pike's performance - she's so good at this and I'm super stoked she won - even if I did believe Pfeiffer should have taken it.
Mulligan, Davis, McDormand, Day & Pike - that'd be a great final 5.
Why does Vanessa have to pay for this? :(
Also, who the hell is going to win???
I agree about Day in 4th and Kirby vulnerable - I think she'll miss too. But I think its Adams or Pike that replaces her.
What a weird year - I could see Mulligan, Davis or Day winning, and supporting actor and actress are just as cloudy.
Lucky - My guess is it's because her film can be an excrutiating sit. AMPAS doesn't usually go for films that are difficult to sit through if they have alternatives.
I must say, I actually really enjoyed I Care a Lot, and I do think Rosamund Pike is quite good in it (I also really enjoyed Peter Dinklage and Dianne Wiest). It's nowhere near my favorite film of this eligibility period, but I wouldn't be too upset if Pike got her second nomination.
If Amy Adams gets nominated for Hillbilly Elegy when she didn't get nominated for either Arrival or Enchanted, I will revolt!
@Andrew-that's possible à la Marina de Tavira. Imagine if McDormand is the one not nominated!!
Anyway I think that Nathaniel prediction is right. I would be sorry not to see Kirby nominated, but at least she won a Volpi Cup.
The real question is WHO IS GONNA WIN???
Does anyone really care about the Golden Globes? The Globes are the awards Hollywood should start ignoring.
If that’s the lineup, doesn’t Andra Day win?
The USvsBH is so, so terrible and easily the worst thing I sat all the way through this year. The FBI plot is so clunkily interwoven into the narrative and Lee Daniels can’t decide if it is THE plot or a prominent subplot, and the bizarre framework with the Leslie Jordan interview is even worse. It’s especially terrible how they cram in Billie’s brothel upbringing near the third act (in a drug-induced flashback/hallucination/whatever it was), which is how LADY SINGS THE BLUES begins Billie’s story. After SHADOWBOXER, PRECIOUS, and PAPERBOY, I’m convinced Lee Daniels is an “arthouse” Tyler Perry. This movie deserves all the Razzies, especially for editing. It also should receive the inaugural award for worst lighting.
Andra Day’s vocal emulation of Billie Holiday was uncanny, and she should feel very proud for fearlessly throwing herself into the role. However, she’s still pretty bad. She doesn’t know what to do with her limbs, she doesn’t know how to physically interact with her scene partners, and doesn’t even how to smoke a cigarette believably. Whenever in doubt, which is virtually every scene, Andra clenches her jaw or chews her lip.
Still, her great vocals, which coupled with political pressure, the historic biopic factor, and her unquestionable boldness and lack of vanity in the sex and drug scenes will possibly be enough for the Academy Award for Best Actress, or as a consolation, they’ll deny Diane Warren (yet again) and Leslie Odom, Jr., and give her Original Song.
At least this year will have some mystery...
I've Loren on my list as the 5th nominee since I saw the movie. There was something about that captivated me. Sophia Loren is old Hollywood still putting out wonderful performances at 86. It will definitely appeal to those voters that have a soft spot for old Hollywood.
However, I was putting Loren in instead of Day. Then last night happened and put a wrench in everything. I still think Mulligan, McDormand, and Davis are safe. But I can see Kirby falling and being replaced with Day. Both were great in otherwise bland movies. But I give Day the slight edge here because her movie is still fresh in people's mind. The buzz for Kirby and Pieces of a Woman has died since January. Blame it on the extended year.
My picks, as of today are:
Davis
Day
Loren
McDormand
Mulligan
I’m going with McDormand, Mulligan, Davis, Day and Kirby.
I think Vanessa has campaigned well and will keep herself in the conversation.
Without being reductive of actress’, this is where virtual awards shows and no red carpets (Instagram doesn’t count) aren’t helping a campaign as they usually would. Kirby would have been everywhere in that beautiful Gucci gown.
Andra is not eligible for Song - my error!
Andra Day - Golden Globe win, no SAG nomination, Critics' Choice nomination, not on BAFTA longlist
Rosamund Pike - Golden Globe win, no SAG or Critics' Choice nomination, not on BAFTA longlist
Jodie Foster - Golden Globe win, no SAG or Critics' Choice nomination, on BAFTA longlist
At least all the televised award shows can't give prizes to the same four actors this year!
Two questions that are lingering for me in the aftermath of the Golden Globes --
Is Viola Davis the lock she is presented to be?
As AMPAS voters now prioritize I Care a Lot on their watch lists, might they fall in love with Dianne Wiest's performance and send her a surprise supporting actress nomination? She won her two supporting Oscars over 25 years ago.
Hilton Als really said all that needs to be said about USvBH and Day's poor performance...
I have Mulligan getting snubed... PYW isn't AMPAS cup of tea and while her performance is amazing, there's something that makes me believe she won't be able to make the final cut
Right now my lineup goes like:
#1 - Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND
#2 - Viola Davis, MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
#3 - Andra Day, THE U.S. vs. BILLIE HOLIDAY
#4 - Vanessa Kirby, PIECES OF A WOMAN
#5 - Sophia Loren, LA VITA DAVANTI A SÈ
#6 - Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
#7 - Rosamund Pike, I CARE A LOT
#8 - Sidney Flanigan, NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS
#9 - Yeri Han, MINARI
#10 - Michelle Pfeiffer, THE FRENCH EXIT
I don't think Kirby is out so fast. If she's nominated for BAFTA, I think she'll get in. Given that she's the only Brit in that category, it's easy to see her pulling those votes in and making it to the nomination. In the past, when British actors who made all the precursors get overlooked, it's because voters had another Brit/European to throw their support behind (e.g., Weiz over Claire Foy, Riva over Mirren). She's the only one this time given that Pike is a bit of a non-factor.
It also helps that folks really loved her on the Crown and that she's been in a few blockbusters. She has some TV BAFTAs under her belt too, so it's easy to see her countrymen giving her the final boost she needs.
Ha, I totally forgot that Carey Mulligan is a Brit! Kirby is still my fifth, but she could easily be upset by Loren or Michelle.
Gonna be Davis, Mulligan, Kirby, McDormand and Day at the Oscars.
Supporting actress seems to be more in flux. There may not be a lot of coattail nominations in any acting categories and may come down to who the voters are passionate about. I can actually see Burstyn gettiin while Kirby doesn't get a nomination.
I agree that McDormand and Mulligan are locks.
The rest is cloudy.
I don't agree that Viola Davis is a lock. Partly because I liked neither the performance nor the movie, partly because I'm not alone in those sentiments, partly because she has recently won, partly because it's a borderline supporting performance (just like her her Oscar win). I do think she will get in but I disagree that she's a lock.
I think Andra Day is more of a lock now than Viola Davis is. I think the buzz is growing, the Globe helps, and the performance really is a knockout (even if the film is not).
You know, I would actually vote for Vanessa Kirby for the win. But the still-a-lot-of-old-white-guys voters in the Academy might find Pieces of a Woman a tough watch. She's the most likely snub here. But will they like I Care a Lot instead? Will enough of them watch Sophia's movie?
I think the five are (n order of likelihood):
McDormand
Mulligan
Day
Davis
Kirby
Pike
Pfeiffer
Loren
Adams
You guys, this is gonna be 1995 all over again with the Globe Actress Drama roster repeating as the Oscar lineup - and Pike (like Kidman with her icy black comedy To Die For) getting left out. It's felt like McDormand, Mulligan, Davis, Kirby and Day for awhile and I don't think anyone's budging.
Day,Adams,loren,Mulligan,McDomand.
Poor Kate Winslet at her best 25 yrs later and no-one bites.
I think the Globes Drama lineup could very well be it for Best Actress at the Oscars and I'd be more than happy with that! All of those women do fantastic work in their films. Michelle scoring her fourth nom would also be pretty lovely, but at this point it just seems so unlikely!
I'd been thinking that Hillbilly Elegy might get two nominations as a sort of voter counterweight to this very woke year, but it looks like it's fading fast.
That is literally the worst spoiler post I've ever seen in my life. Your IP should be banned. Jesus Christ.
I'm definitely feeling a strong showing for Minari is coming, and Han Yeri will get swept up in it like Marina de Tavira and snap up the 5th slot. But I also feel like Kirby will miss. It seems like Burstyn has maybe dropped off. If there's going to be a nominee in this category who is the sole rep of their film, it seems like Andra Day is better positioned than Kirby at this point. She's hitting at the right time and the role is so in the Academy's wheelhouse. It'll be really exciting to see how this one plays out.
If we want to get really silly, what if the Academy decides to correct Bakalova's category fraud and swap her into lead?? Although for some reason I still don't think she's a total lock for a nomination. But I'll be delightfully pleased if she makes it in.
I can't take these comments anymore. The worst on the internet for the last 10 years, and all because trolls are allowed to run rampant because there's no log-in system.
After 18 years, I have to stop coming here. Goodbye TFE! I will treasure the good times.
I'm thrilled for ROSAMUND PIKE, she was my pick for the Globes, her film is not perfect but she is.
Unpopular oponion but I think Davis should sit this one out (she's in the wrong category, she is supporting). Mulligan & Kirby are so brilliant their performances should not be ignored; McDormand is a lock (although not my favorite). As for Adams next time she's nominated probably she will win (a lá Julianne Moore in Still Alice) but I don't think they'll give it to her for HE so she'll wait; Loren may happen given her legendary status; Day will happen (haven't seen her film yet but Drama Globe Actress winner rarely doesn't tranlate into an Oscar nod).
So, for me it would be:
Mulligan (winner)
Kirby
Pike
McDormand
Day
I’m still holding out hope for MICHELLE PFEIFFER to surprise and get that last spot. Not expecting a win, but a nom would be ideal, to open up more roles for her and perhaps finally nab her that Oscar win sooner rather than later. I do think Kirby’s spot is vulnerable so perhaps she misses, Day gets her spot, and then the 5th spot is open for Pfeiffer to waltz right in as the “veteran”/“welcome back” nominee.
Frances McDormand carries the year’s most acclaimed film on her back, so I’m going to assume she’s the frontrunner until someone poses a credible challenge. The more inconclusive this category looks the better it is for her, especially if she picks up one or two of the big remaining prizes.
Mulligan absolutely needs to win something: On its own, SAG would be big and BAFTA slightly less so. Both would be huge. The same goes for Kirby, but she’s in a weaker position than Mulligan.
Day is out of the running for both. So, assuming she gets the Oscar nomination, she’ll benefit if those send more mixed messages (McDormand/Davis at SAG! Mulligan/Kirby at BAFTA!). All things being equal I think the role/narrative could put her in “credible challenge” territory, especially if voters want a McDormand alternative.
This is a fun race!
Loren is done already! Here is your final five:
Davis
Day
Kirby
McDormand
Mulligan
Thanks for playing everyone else.
Wow! WHAT HAPPENED TO SPOILER ALERT!
I do not want to know the death of any characters in advance!
Loren is out you delusional morons.
George P -- i'm still hoping for something like that , too :)
Domgogo -- the comment did have a SPOILERS in caps before it but it upset too many people so i deleted it (sorry commenter who posted it)
JF _- i agree that the volatility actually benefits McDormand.
sfenton -- they're never going to correct category fraud anymore. they're so used to it now and fans and even critics are always rallying to defend every strategic rather than honest placement. It's always been true that people valued stars more than charactter actors but it's frustrating that it's come to this and literally no one cares anymore as long as the stars they happen to like benefit.
JJ -- sorry it's come to that. I am planning a site revamp after the Oscars when i have time to install such things and upgrade the platform etcetera because it's been making me crazy too.
Fucking spoiler on deaths was there until I updated the page. Fuck I wish I had accidentally closed my tab or something :( I guess i'm thankful that Nathaniel/Claudio whoever took it down quick, but not quick enough. Ergh damn you TFE commenters!!!
Andra Day: I'm singing with my own voice. I'm not losing to a lipsync. That's how one achieves the second black actress win in drama category.
I have found the omissions from the conversations more baffling than ever this year. Why has there been no love for Lesley Manville in Ordinary Love? It’s an astounding performance. Am I the only one in the world who thinks Hugh Laurie and Tilda Swinton did some of the best work of their careers in The Personal History of David Copperfield?
I really like Andra Day's chances, and I'm also hoping the acting branch's apparent love for Minari leads to a surprise nod for Yeri Han - imo, the best performance in the film! Hoping your prediction that Vanessa Kirby misses comes true...
Nathaniel - since you brought up an upgrade to the platform, I’ve been wondering if you’ve given any thought to moving The Film Experience to an entirely different platform, be it YouTube or a podcast? I’m just imagining the possibilities...
@Karen Silkwood -- yes!!! the hilton als piece on TUSvBH is absolutely on point. he always is so perceptive and turns a phrase beautifully.
the acting categories are chaos, and i LOVE it. i wish every year were like this. when it's just a march from show to show with the same performers winning each category... takes all of the joy out of it. even if the oscar goes to someone who is not my preference i'm just savoring this wild year.
also, streamers are taking control this year for sure. they won *all* film awards. netflix (screenplay, actor drama, actress comedy), amazon (picture and actor comedy, sup actress), hulu (picture drama, director, actress drama) and hbo (sup actor). yikes!
@Nathaniel—yes but Day does interest me; if she makes the cut I could totally see her winning in a very minor surprise. She might end up with the best shot of anyone besides McDormand with the Drama Globe, the baity role and the opportunity for Oscar to make history in this category again.
That said I disagree with everyone who thinks McDormand isn’t setting herself up as a female Daniel Day Lewis, that’s almost exactly where her career is headed lately. Three Oscars is not hard to imagine at the rate she’s going.
Until proven otherwise, I have to believe the Academy is beholden to the distributors so McDormand (Searchlight), Mulligan (Focus), and Day (Hulu/Paramount) seem the safest. Netflix will battle for the last two slots. Another factor is the acceptance speech performance which Boseman nailed and Pike flubbed.
I always had Kirby 4th and Day 5th even before the Globes. It's Billie Holiday! You can't fight that. Judi, Freddie, Maggie, Theo, they love that shit. Now I'm doubting Kirby.
Honestly, out of the competition, I'd like Loren to win.
If not, a surprise nom in Lead for Bakalova. I have to say that the moment she threw her body out of the car, in motion, in enthusiasm in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm should be an Oscar clip, right away.
Much as I'd love to see her in there, I remain skeptical Loren actually makes the cut, barring a BAFTA nom (which would change things). Day looks good for that fifth slot and while Kirby's indeed vulnerable, I'm still more comfortable going with her over Adams...unless Adams manages a BAFTA nom. Don't see Pike or Pfeiffer happening, sadly.
The Pfeiffer Fantasy is a thing we endure only because we love Nathaniel.
Carey
Frances
Viola
Kirby
Adams