Does Having a Co-Star Nominated in the Same Category Help or Hurt a Frontrunner?
Wednesday, April 7, 2021 at 9:55AM by Christopher James
"Judas and the Black Messiah" became the 19th film to earn two nominations in Best Supporting Actor. Both Lakeith Stanfield (left) and Daniel Kaluuya (right) were nominated.Daniel Kaluuya has won all the major televised awards of the season so far for his tour-de-force performance as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah. This should clear an easy path for him in Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars. The one difference: he faces off against co-star Lakeith Stanfield in the same category for the first time this season at the Oscars. Is this a show of confidence in the film, further solidifying his imminent win? Or does this open up the possibility for vote-splitting?
Theoretically, having multiple nominees from a film in a single category should double a film’s chances at winning...
Thus, Judas and the Black Messiah should have a 40% chance of winning Best Supporting Actor since two of the five nominees are from the film. Yet, when looking at all the times a film took up multiple acting slots, only 32% of the time did someone from the film win. This is less than expected, suggesting that there is some level of vote splitting that occurs.
Do all acting categories see the same risk of vote splitting? Let’s take a look.
Most of the time double nominees happen, it is in the supporting actress category. In fact, 49% of the occurrences of multiple actors from the same movie earning nominations are in the supporting actress category. This higher volume doesn’t necessarily change much about the success rate. Just over one-third of time, one of the two women nominated from the film will win. This is in line with what we see for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor.
The only category that is more prone to vote splitting is Best Actress. There have only been five occurrences of two actresses from the same movie earning nominations in Best Actress. Only once has this resulted in a win (Shirley MacLaine for Terms of Endearment, nominated against Debra Winger). This speaks to female centric films with dual leads not often being Oscar's preference.
The increased campaign preference for Category Fraud has also led to no recent lead acting categories nominating two actors from the same film. The last time that happened in Best Actor was 1984, where F. Murray Abraham beat Tom Hulce for Amadeus. In Best Actress, both Susan Sarandon and Geena Davis competed against each other and lost for Thelma & Louise in 1991. Plenty of co-lead movies have seen both their stars nominated across the two categories (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Two Popes, Carol, The Danish Girl, and countless more) thanks to Category Fraud.
The success rate for actors who appear in the same movie has gone up over the decades. In the supporting categories, two actors have been nominated for the same movie a total of five times (excluding this year). Of those five occurrences, three times someone from the movie with dual nominees won. These winners include Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Octavia Spencer (The Help) and Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).
This is a huge help to Daniel Kaluuya. In each of these cases, the winner was the clear frontrunner in the category. The second nominee from each of their films were more of a sign of the film’s strength at the Oscars (see Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) or the coattails of other performances (see The Help). When looking at the two times dual nominees from a film didn’t equal a win in the past decade, none of the nominees were frontrunners. For The Irishman, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci both had pockets of passionate fans. Yet, the entire season belonged to Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and neither of them were ever going to dethrone him. In the case of The Favourite, Rachel Weisz had a shot at pulling out a surprise win over Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk. Likely co-nominee Emma Stone siphoned off votes from her, making it much harder to pull off that feat.
The most clear example from recent nominees where having a second nominee demonstrably hurt a frontrunner’s chances was in 2000 when Kate Hudson and Frances McDormand were nominated for Almost Famous. Hudson was favored to win. Yet, in hindsight, her main precursor heading into the night was a Golden Globes win. Plus, McDormand had won critics prizes thanks to great performances in multiple films that year, including Wonder Boys. All of this led to a shocking upset by Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock.
In short, having a second nominee from a film only splits votes if neither nominee is a clear frontrunner. If someone is trying to plan a surprise win, having a second nominee could backfire. However, clear frontrunners like Daniel Kaluuya shouldn’t be worried about any vote splitting. Though LaKeith Stanfield is great in the film, he is the surprise nominee (and clear lead) and hasn’t exactly been playing the Oscar game. It’s Kaluuya’s Oscar to lose.
F. Murray Abraham won Best Actor in 1984 in "Amadeus," also starring fellow nominee Tom Hulce.
Best Actor
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1935 - Mutiny on the Bounty - Clark Gable, Charles Laughton, Franchot Tone
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1944 - Going My Way - Bing Crosby (WIN), Barry Fitzgerald
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1953 - From Here to Eternity - Montgomery Clift, Burt Lancaster
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1956 - Giant - James Dean, Rock Hudson
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1958 - The Defiant Ones - Tony Curtis, Sidney Poitier
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1961 - Judgment at Nuremberg - Maximilian Schell (WIN), Spencer Tracy
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1964 - Becket - Richard Burton, Peter O’Toole
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1969 - Midnight Cowboy - Dustin Hoffman, Jon Voight
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1972 - Sleuth - Michael Caine, Laurence Olivier
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1976 - Network - Peter Finch (WIN), William Holden
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1983 - The Dresser - Tom Courtenay, Albert Finney
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1984 - Amadeus - F. Murray Abraham (WIN), Tom Hulce
Shirley Maclaine (right) is the only actress to win Best Actress when nominated against a co-star (Debra Winger, left).
Best Actress
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1950 - All About Eve - Anne Baxter, Bette Davis
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1959 - Suddenly, Last Summer - Katharine Hepburn, Elizabeth Taylor
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1977 - The Turning Point - Anne Bancroft, Shirley MacLaine
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1983 - Terms of Endearment - Shirley MacLaine (WIN), Debra Winger
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1991 - Thelma & Louise - Geena Davis, Susan Sarandon
Woody Harrelson's (left) nomination for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissourI" was a sign that helped usher Sam Rockwell (right) to the win.
Best Supporting Actor
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1939 - Mr. Smith Goes to Washington - Harry Carey, Claude Rains
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1951 - Quo Vadis - Leo Genn, Peter Ustinov
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1953 - Shane - Brandon De Wilde, Jack Palance
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1954 - On the Waterfront - Lee J. Cobb, Karl Malden, Rod Steiger
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1957 - Peyton Place - Arthur Kennedy, Russ Tamblyn
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1959 - Anatomy of a Murder - Arthur O’Connell, George C. Scott
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1961 - The Hustler - Jackie Gleason, George C. Scott
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1971 - The Last Picture Show - Jeff Bridges, Ben Johnson (WIN)
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1972 - The Godfather - James Caan, Robert Duvall, Al Pacino
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1974 - The Godfather Part II - Robert De Niro (WIN), Michael V. Gazzo, Lee Strasberg
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1976 - Rocky - Burgess Meredith, Burt Young
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1977 - Julia - Jason Robards (WIN), Maximilian Schell
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1980 - Ordinary People - Judd Hirsch, Timothy Hutton (WIN)
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1983 - Terms of Endearment - Jack Nicholson (WIN), John Lithgow
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1986 - Platoon - Tom Berenger, Willem Dafoe
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1991 - Bugsy - Harvey Keitel, Ben Kingsley
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2017 - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Woody Harrelson, Sam Rockwell (WIN)
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2019 - The Irishman - Al Pacino, Joe Pesci
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2020 - Judas and the Black Messiah - Daniel Kaluuya, Lakeith Stanfield
Octavia Spencer (right) prevailed over co-star Jessica Chastain (left) in Best Supporting Actress for "The Help."
Best Supporting Actress
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1939 - Gone with the Wind - Olivia de Havilland, Hattie McDaniel (WIN)
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1941 - The Little Foxes - Patricia Collinge, Teresa Wright
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1942 - Mrs. Miniver - Dame May Whitty, Teresa Wright (WIN)
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1943 - The Song of Bernadette - Gladys Cooper, Anne Revere
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1945 - Mildred Pierce - Eve Arden, Ann Blyth
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1947 - Gentleman’s Agreement - Celeste Holm (WIN), Anne Revere
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1948 - I Remember Mama - Barbara Bel Geddes, Ellen Corby
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1949 - Come to the Stable - Celeste Holm, Elsa Lanchester
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1949 - Pinky - Ethel Barrymore, Ethel Waters
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1950 - All About Eve - Celeste Holm, Thelma Ritter
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1954 - The High and the Mighty - Jan Sterling, Claire Trevor
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1956 - The Bad Seed - Eileen Heckart, Patty McCormack
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1957 - Peyton Place - Hope Lange, Diane Varsi
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1959 - Imitation of Life - Susan Kohner, Juanita Moore
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1963 - Tom Jones - Diane Cilento, Dame Edith Evans, Joyce Redman
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1965 - Othello - Joyce Redman, Maggie Smith
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1970 - Airport - Helen Hayes (WIN), Maureen Stapleton
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1971 - The Last Picture Show - Ellen Burstyn, Cloris Leachman (WIN)
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1973 - Paper Moon - Madeline Kahn, Tatum O’Neal (WIN)
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1975 - Nashville - Ronee Blakley, Lily Tomlin
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1979 - Kramer vs. Kramer - Jane Alexander, Meryl Streep (WIN)
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1982 - Tootsie - Teri Garr, Jessica Lange (WIN)
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1985 - The Color Purple - Margaret Avery, Oprah Winfrey
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1988 - Working Girl - Joan Cusack, Sigourney Weaver
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1989 - Enemies, A Love Story - Anjelica Huston, Lena Olin
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1994 - Bullets Over Broadway - Jennifer Tilly, Dianne Wiest (WIN)
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2000 - Almost Famous - Kate Hudson, Frances McDormand
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2001 - Gosford Park - Helen Mirren, Maggie Smith
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2002 - Chicago - Queen Latifah, Catherine Zeta-Jones (WIN)
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2006 - Babel - Adriana Barraza, Rinko Kikuchi
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2008 - Doubt - Amy Adams, Viola Davis
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2009 - Up in the Air - Vera Farmiga, Anna Kendrick
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2010 - The Fighter - Amy Adams, Melissa Leo (WIN)
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2011 - The Help - Jessica Chastain, Octavia Spencer (WIN)
- 2018 - The Favourite - Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz
Do you expect Daniel Kaluuya will prevail at the Oscars? Let us know in the comments below.
Reader Comments (47)
Kaluuya will win. Love the guy and I would have nominated him for Widows but I'm rooting like crazy for Raci.
I'm sure they is some vote siphoning in each year but if the narrative is there for the win it probably doesn't hurt too much. I think however there are certain years where it makes a bigger difference, the split between Joan Cusack and Sigourney Weaver is perhaps what doomed what seemed like a given win for Sigourney what with her double nominations. Both were delights in the film so it's a shame one of them didn't emerge victorious.
By the way while it a fascinating idea for Stallone to have played William Holden's role in Network (the mind reels!) it was Bill Holden that was Peter Finch's co-nominee from the picture.
Sylvester Stallone was nominated for Rocky, William Holden is the other nominee. A good read, thank you.
Peter Finch's costar in Network was William Holden, not Sylvester Stallone!
It was only problem in main acting category ( Best Actress or Actor ), like Winger vs McLaine in Terms of Endearment ( Winger wasn't any chance as McLaine has overdue narrative ).
Till 1991 ( Sarandon vs. Davis was the last couple ) studios are not competing their stars against each other in main acting categories, only in supporting. They prefer category fraud like Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl or Viola Davis in Fences. :
I think you mean William Holden [not Sly] for Network
Vote splitting is something that gets talked about every year but never actually happens.
The closest examples on that list you shared are Sigourney Weaver losing for Working Girl and Kate Hudson losing for Almost Famous. Those were fluke Supporting Actress years but I don't think Joan Cusack and Frances McDormand's nominations explain the outcomes. Pollock was a hot screener and Weaver's double nod created its own confusion in 1988.
What that list proves is "If you're a frontrunner who's locked up all the important precursors, it doesn't matter if your costar is nominated." And conversely, "If neither co-star is the race frontrunner then neither of them is likely to win." Which is pretty much how it works for everybody.
The frontrunner analysis is really helpful here.
I can't see how Kaluuya loses. He's strong in his film, his popularity is on the rise, and he proved that he has real acting chops after his first nomination. He's also British, and it's very easy to see the British contingent pushing him over the line - they love when their actors get to become massive stars.
Look, I'm a Oscar nerd and only now I did realize Celeste Holm's unique case.
The three times she was nominated, she shared the nomination with a co-actress. Of those who were nominated more than once, it's a single situation. I'd say she's the queen/king of the "shared nomination".
I am loving the idea of Sylvester Stallone being the lead in Network but I have a feeling that was a typo :)
Great post by the way.
Finch and Holden, of course
wow! from 2006 to 2011 Oscar double-dipped in Supporting Actress each time (minus 2007)
Is this a product of Academy laziness or did those performances really warrant those noms?
I'd argue that Jessica Chastain's nomination was less a coattails nomination, and more the performance of hers that awards attention happened to coalesce around (rather than Tree of Life or Take Shelter). Didn't that great breakout year have, at least, something to do with that nod?
The perfect caption for Stanfield and Kaluuya's pictures would be "2020 / 2021"
Nowadays many double nomnated perfs in leading categories would be campaigned as supporting to avoid the split votes or to permit a win in another category (this in not an accusation for JUDAS campaign since Stanfield was actually campaigned as Leading Actor). No, I think Kaluuya will win, even if Raci and Odom Jr. wouldn't be less deserving. BTW: I also like his not nominated perf in WIDOWS
"wow! from 2006 to 2011 Oscar double-dipped in Supporting Actress each time (minus 2007)
Is this a product of Academy laziness or did those performances really warrant those noms?"
The SAG Awards and the Golden Globes lined up almost exactly as the Supporting Actress lists from 2006-2011, so I am not surprised to see this many multiple nominees during this time period. I didn't think any of them would miss the cut.
The craziest thing is that gap from 1991 to 2017 for Best Supporting Actor double dips. And now it's happened two more times since! (BTW, Pacino should have won for THE IRISHMAN).
I think it clearly cost Sigourney in 1988. Too bad, she deserved it!
Might it also have hurt her in getting a nom in 1997? Can't remember if her and Joan Allen were both competing as Supporting Actress for the Ice Storm.
A very interesting read.
It's odd that, in Best Supporting Actor, it hadn't happened since 1991 and now it's happened three times in the past four years.
I've often wondered why the Academy favours two nominees from the same film in Best Supporting Actress so much over the other three acting categories.
Will we ever again see a pair of Best Actor or Best Actress nominees from the same film? With category fraud it's doubtful. But I live in hope!
We really need Bette Davis's opinion on this. Or Terri Garr's.
'Tis still a slam dunk for Kaluuya - marvelous as he is, I honestly don't think Stanfield will score that many votes.
I think Oprah Winfrey's chances were hurt by Margaret Avery's nomination.
Going back, I've read Ann Blyth was considered the front runner in 1945, and I'll bet Eve Arden's nomination (for a superior performance IMO) siphoned off enough votes to allow Anne Revere to win.
I also reject the idea of "vote splitting" or "vote siphoning" because it implies that Avery, Cusack, McDormand, Arden, etc. "took" votes that the other actress was in some way entitled to.
As if a Cusack voter automatically had Weaver in second place and not Davis, etc. I don't think that's the way it works for any film viewer?
Tom Berenger won the Golden Globe for Platoon, and Willem Dafoe wasn’t nominated there, so there may be something to that. I don’t think Berenger was ever a slam-dunk frontrunner, but being a Globe winner in that year’s Best Picture surely means he was in contention for the win. It’s totally possible the Platoon voters were split between him and Dafoe in that category, allowing Michael Caine to win instead (for the record, I like Dafoe’s performance more than Berenger’s in that movie, so it’s kind of surprising to me that Berenger won the Globe while Dafoe wasn’t even nominated).
There's no way to know this absent an anonymous survey that will never happen -- but I'd love to know what percentage of Academy voters won't vote for Kaluuya or Stanfield on principle because they take a stand against category fraud? Would it ever be enough to cost a category fraudster an Oscar?
Final tally (we'll never know):
Kaluuya 33% (Winner)
Raci 30%
SBC 17%
Odom 15%
Stanfield 5%
In all fairness, it should be either Sacha Baron Cohen or Paul Raci, winning, as they are truly Supporting performances (in Chicago 7, I'd say Redmayne, Rylance and Langella are more "important" and "closer to leads"). While I love Kaluuya and Stanfield's performances, I do not think they should be winning in any category, and I tend to like Stanfield's performance better. My order to win this year would be (with my reasonings for my rank)
1. Sacha Baron Cohen. Chicago 7 comes to life and becomes FUN and actually poignant beyond cliches when he is on screen. Supporting and shinning when the movie requires to throw his charisma through the roof, but also able to lower down to give room to breath and to shine, his costars. Extra: he's a genius of acting that doesn't get that many chances to flex his drama muscle (wasn't he magnificent, also, in "The Spy"?).
2. Paul Raci. He's key in Sound of Metal's success, almost on the same level than Ahmed. His calm performance may look easy but isn't, and I only give him second, for her Oscarbait monologue, which basically almost nail a nomination on its own... the delivery is perfect, but its success is deeply rooted in an ambitious screenplay. I liked the actors in Sound of Metal way more than the film itself.
3. Leslie Odom, Jr. Only his cappella scene would be enough to justify the nomination. I can barely buy him as Supporting, that's why I put him in 3rd, and I have to say that almost any of the 4 leads in One Night in Miami could deservingly have been nominated, but probably they chose the most deserving.
4. LaKeith Stanfield. I find his role more complex and demanding range than Kaluuya, but both are equally awesome. Still, it is a co-lead performance.
5. Daniel Kaluuya. He's an amazing actor and is going to win, but he's a co-lead.
I find it a bit embarrassing that both Kaluuya and Stanfield have gone Supporting killing off any chance of their co-star (and more Supporting) Jesse Plemons having a chance in the race (specially given that he had another great performance in "I'm thinking of Ending Things"). I have to also add, that I understand why they went Supporting in the end (even if Stanfield has been campaigned as Lead) because Lead Actor was insanely packed (as usual), but if we remove Odom Jr, Stanfield and Kaluuya just think of the names that should have been in contention...
Arliss Howard, Mank
Charles Dance, Mank
Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
Colman Domingo, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Will Patton, Minari
Alan S. Kim, Minari
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Jesse Plemons, I'm Thinking on Ending Things AND Judas and the Black Messiah
Dan Stevens, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Robert Pattinson, Tenet
... even Jim Carrey, who made Sonic: The Hedgehog actually watchable?
... or shouts out to "The Life Ahead"'s Ibrahima Gueye (probably lead) and Babak Karimi? Or Peter Macdissi in "Uncle Frank"?
Talking just about the films, I've seen, of course. Plenty of names from films I didn't yet
No knock on him at all, but apparently I completely erased Harrelson's nomination for Three Billboards from my mind. I did a double take at the first reference to Sam Rockwell and had to double check IMDB and my own notes from that year to fully convince myself. I truly have no recollection of that campaign!
I feel like Stanfield's nomination, more than anything, is evidence of the film's strength and popularity across the academy. Having Stanfield get in there reads as an extra boost to Kaluuya to me. I'm very excited for Kaluuya to take him the gold this year. Richly deserved for this and past performances.
Jesus: what??? You're complaining about category fraud then proposing Plemons and Alan Kim as supporting actors? Nonsensical.
Unpopular opinion but I thought Lakeith was better than Daniel. I think Daniel should’ve won for Get Out though.
Vote splitting is definitely real and assuredly occurred in 1950. Most voters either chose Davis or Swanson, and allowed Holliday to slip in for the win. As good as she is, it's the only way that result could have happened.
@brookesboy, can we really consider Davis v Swanson vote-splitting given they were from different films? Do you think Anne Baxter got enough voted that might have gone to Davis otherwise to reverse the result?
Not when his co-star only got in beacase of excessively love of the film. Stanfield riding the coattails of the voters who upgraged frontrunner Kaluuya to lead on their ballots whilst bringing his co-lead along for the ride. A faction of voters rejected Kaluuya as lead, but then put the bigger lead in supporting resulting in both the film's leads being supportint players. Oh the painful irony. Category fraud will be blatant and with us for a long time
Looking at this list tells me that female double nominees when one results in a win, the also ran is also a great performance too
And on recent rewatch of Terms of Endearment it became obvious that when going by quality of performance:
DEBRA WINGER = F MURRAY ABRAHAM
SHIRLEY MACLAINE = TOM HULCE
(Sigh. You just try to have a cuppa and read an article then all of a sudden a wild trifling ho appears Anyway... *puts down mug*)
HOLLIDAY4EVA
and with moderation in place, once more for any pending trifling hoes...
HOLLIDAY4EVA
brookesboy. gilbert, JF -- i think the thing with "vote splitting" and "vote siphoning" that is so divisive is that everyone has a different idea of what that means. I've used the terms often but i also reject the notino that anyone is entitled to any vote or that two people int he same film would obviously be someone's #1 and #2 choice. But i think vote splitting and vote siphoning is real in terms of 'types' and genres more than specific films. For instance 1999 had a plethora of super-well regarded critical hits and virtually none of them were nominated for the Oscar. I think that was a clear case of vote-splitting as there were too many options for that type of voter whose tastes align more with critics than with the mainstream audience. I think sometimes when a year is super rich with options strange things happen and i equate that with vote splitting or siphoning. Though obviously these are metaphoric things rather than literal things.
Completely agree, Nathaniel. I've always said the more good options Academy voters have, the more disappointing the resulting nominees will be. There's a hardcore shlock-vote group that will go for things like The Green Mile and The Cider House Rules, while Being John Malkovich/Fight Club/Three Kings/Magnolia/The Talented Mr. Ripley are scrapping with one another. This was a far worse problem in the five-nominees era, but it still exists today.
Correct Nathaniel and Tom Q on vote splitting being more about the genre and voter predilections. Like with 1950, most votes to nominate would have been spread amongst Swanson, Davis and Holliday, with Parker potentially closely following and Baxter squeezing in with a much smaller number of votes required. My heart hopes Margaret Sullivan mainly, and Greer Garson came close with their cancer themed films.
Come voting for a win, the grand dame inclined voters split fairly evenly and Holliday's master comic performance and it's fans (Included Hepburn and Tracy) garnered enough votes to win. It's not inconceivable that the number of votes garnered by Baxter in both rounds was quite small and barely a facto, particularly to Davis' chances. I say this as someone who likes her in Eve much more than most here and think her The Razor's Edge win is one of the greats in the category. Perfect actress for a perfect role in an unfairly maligned film.
If Suddenly Last Summer and Midnight Cowboy were released today, Hoffman and Hepburn roles would definitely be campaigned in supporting!
Give it to Paul Raci🗣🗣🗣
Nathaniel, you're so right about everyone having a different definition of vote splitting. For me, it means popularity plus math. I think the same could happen this year with Boseman and Hopkins. Both performances are beloved and universally considered master classes in acting. So, like in 1950, if two performers are the two huge vote-getters and they garner about the same tally apiece, then like Holliday, I think Riz could sneak in. It's unlikely but there's a small chance this year.
In 1950, Anne Baxter and Eleanor Parker are classic vote siphoners. I'm sure there were more than a handful of voters who worked with and liked Parker or thought she was "better" than the others, and there were probably some voters who liked All About Eve the most but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Bette Davis either because she'd already won twice or had such a "bitchy" reputation.
Swanson & Davis split the "serious actress" vote allowing for all the comedy voters or people who said "she doesn't stand a chance but I liked her the best" to vote for Judy Holliday.
This whole process probably plays out about the same in other "shock" winner votes.
Nobody seems willing to "go there," but I will: there has to be some small amount of anti-racists (or progressive) votes that will get split here while racist (or conservative) votes do not. If you find yourself excited at all the great Black talent in this category, as I am, you have three choices. You also might be impressed with the very progressive (well, not THAT progressive) story being told in CHICAGO 7. If you're a conservative "Steak Eater" who's sick of hearing that Black Lives Matter and how Sasha Baron Cohen made conservatives look ridiculous last year in his movie, there's only one place to go--the excellent Paul Rici: the hard working white guy who finally got his shot at the age of 71. There are those who think something like this happened when Marisa Tomei won: one American vs. three Brits and an Aussie. The American won.
@ Dan Humphrey
If you want to go there, there‘s also virtue signaling to be had in voting for Raci, given his role, which (see above) is one of the reasons I have him not far behind Kaluuya in the voting.
@Working stiff. Sure. But a strike against ageism and for a film about disability identity is the kind of virtue signaling conservatives can embrace as well as liberals. Raci is really a potential spoiler here.
That's why I think he's a close runner-up.
It would be nice to know, which one would win, if Kaluuya, Stanfield and maybe Dom, Jr. were not in the supporting Actor Category. Sasha or Raci? Its taff. For me Raci.