Oscar Chart Revisions - Everything Updated!
Monday, January 3, 2022 at 11:59PM 
We're finally done with the post finalist Oscar charts. So have a look at the list. Whenever you finish prognosticating individual categories and start taking a more holistic view, it's easy to see how difficult the prediction game can be before the guilds narrow things down. Do I really think we'll have, not one, but two Best Picture nominees (Licorice Pizza, CODA) with only two nods each? No i don't. But what to cut and from which category? Do I really think Belfast will get as many nominations as West Side Story? I didn't think so but on the other hand...
On the Best Picture page
Let's take a risk and read the future trajectory and drop Nightmare Alley from the top ten. The initial recency bias of its first wave of big expectations and precursor succcess is fading and nobody is much talking about already. But expectations matter so it could coast in anyway. 8 Best Picture spots feel fairly secure which leads you to ponder which would get the boot in the old days of just 5 nominees: Power of the Dog, West Side Story, Dune, Belfast, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, CODA, and Don't Look Up. But the 9th and 10th slots are a truly a free-for-all...
I've opted to stick with Being the Ricardos due to its inside-showbiz appeal despite its review and give Tragedy of Macbeth a tiny boost thanks to recency bias for voters just now screening it. But really it feels like a free-for-all for those last two spots where almost any combo sounds reasonable with maybe one of those names or one or two of these: Tick Tick Boom!, Cyrano, Spencer, and Nightmare Alley and if you're feeling really daring and generous and believe the more niche forms of hype Spider-Man (we doubt it) or one of the foreign possibilities like A Hero, Hand of God, Parallel Mothers and Drive My Car. The latter is getting so much buzz now that I'm no predicting a screenplay nomination (why not, Adapted is relatively weak this year in terms of Best Picture heat) but still feel that A Hero is a more likely bet with Oscars overall.
Best Picture, CODA, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, Oscars (21), Punditry
Reader Comments (35)
I still think Drive My Car gets in.
I wonder if they will include "...and Anton Chekhov's Uncle Vanya" if Drive My Car gets nominated for Adapted.
Those last two spots are indeed so open that a completely out of nowhere nominee feels more possible than usual, but on the other hand, it could just as easily result in two of the safest, most conventional picks imaginable since I’m not sure any of the more exciting possibilities has enough widespread support to make it in. I could see Hamaguchi or Farhadi landing a surprise Best Director nomination, but I’m still finding it really difficult to see Drive My Car or A Hero getting into the Best Picture lineup. So Being the Ricardos and The Tragedy of Macbeth feel like smart predictions, with Nightmare Alley still a very distinct possibility despite rapidly waning buzz.
I don’t think this will happen because I’ve heard literally no buzz this way, but if the openness of the last two spots were to be capitalized on with strong narrative campaign, what an accomplishment it would be for Flee to not only become the first film to be nominated in the Documentary, International, and Animated Feature categories, but also get a Best Picture nomination on top of that (which I believe would make it the first documentary ever nominated for Best Picture, right?).
Where is this love for Don't Look Up even coming from?
I think CODA can get a surprise Adapted Screenplay. If SPC was handling Drive My Car, it would make the list of 10. As it is now, I don't know which studio will miss except Universal.
I usually don't think about the Scripter nominations (Jan. 18th) until after they're announced, but this year I'm in suspense...
I think the DON'T LOOK UP team is weaponizing the negative reviews the film has gotten. All Oscar voters have experienced the sting of bad reviews. If Netflix can make it about the Academy having a chance to throw some raspberries to the "elite" critics, it will sweep the nominations.
To me TICK TICK BOOM seems as safe in Best Picture as CODA:
- It's got the Globe and Critics Choice Best Picture noms
- Garfield is a lock for an Actor nom (so the voters will definitely be watching it)
- It's been getting a lot of regional critics noms, not just for Picture but Director as well, which indicates broad support
- Lin-Manuel Miranda is still well liked in the industry and has had a very good year
- And, finally, it's kind of a "behind the scenes of showbiz" story, which is adjacent to "films about filmmaking", which the Academy loves
So really, I think it's only the tenth slot that is up for grabs.
I think Tick Tick Boom is definitely in. I'm currently thinking The Lost Daughter in the 10th slot given those who love it REALLY love it.
I always enjoy reading Oscar predictions. I feel my abilities as a prognosticator are overly influenced by my opinions. Here I thought the list for supporting actress showed a thoughtful decision and is worthy of praise.
I am surprised by the inclusion of Adam McKay for a Best Director nod. I thought Maggie Gyllenhaal or Ryusuke Hamaguchi have the advantage here. I will need to rewatch Don’t Look Up to see what I missed the first time.
Finbar -- i personally don't think McKay is deserving but i didn't think he was deserving the other two times he made it in either. I think the Academy just really loves him right now.
Unknown -- at least on twitter it's become very clear that "blue check marks"... i.e. industry folks and celebrities and people established enough for twitter to recognize who they are (though the check marks are often bizarre as to who does and doesn't have them on the journalist front) are kind of obsessed with the movie. Plus the public likes it. I personally think it's fine but no great shakes but i dont get to vote on Oscars ;)
Here is this year's Short documentary (most probable) Oscar winner Lynching postcards-token of a good day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtBK_9c_w44
A disturbing piece of history!
Watch it fast, before youtube takes it down, as I think it's owned by Paramount, but somebody has set it up on Youtube.
I've only seen 12 of the 15 so far (so Sophie & the Baron, When we were bullies and Three songs for Benazir still have a chance to be better... although I doubt they can be).
The other 4 noms (so far) I think will be:
2. "Audible" - you can watch it on Netlix
3. "Day of rage", you can watch it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWJVMoe7OY0
4. "The queen of basketball" - watch it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPFkcoTfr7g
and 5th (which I think will be replaced by one of those 3, that I have not yet seen) "A broken home" - watch it here: https://www.shortoftheweek.com/2021/10/06/a-broken-house/
If you're interested in other shortlisted short docs, then similar to Lynching postcards, another one that it out there at the moment, but as it's also owned by Paramount, it may be taken down soon... It's about a gay artist,who's work we all know (at the moment I think it's on 6th or even 5th pace): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVrVGKAHn_Y
And some of the other shortlisted short docs out there to watch freely:
Takeover: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aK_ALMA1NMk
Aguilas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8Kduui1Lag
The Faicility: https://vimeo.com/652039454
I watched "Terror contagion" as part of a 7 short docs film "Year of everlasting storm" and you can also find "Camp Confidential - America's secret nazis" and "Lead me home" on Netflix.
If anybody can lead to "When we were bullies" would really appreciate that (Three songs for Benazir will be on Netlix in January and Sophie & the Baron will come to Disney+ also quite soon).
If we’re assuming Don’t Look Up is safe (which seems to be the case), I think that may hurt the chances of tick, tick…BOOM! (and, although they’re not quite as buzzy in this category anyway, The Lost Daughter and Passing). I can’t help but feel that with the movie theater industry in the position it’s in right now, there will be voters who decide to make a conscious effort to not over-nominate Netflix films. I don’t know how significant that contingency will be, but I have to believe it’s on some voters’ minds. And three Netflix movies up for Best Picture (on top of potentially an Amazon movie and up to two Apple+ movies) is not something those voters will want.
If these predictions hold true, 4 of 5 nominees in each of the acting categories will be from a Best Picture nominee, except for Best Actress, where only 1 nominee will be from a BP nominee. This would be one of the more striking disconnects between BP and Best Actress in recent years I think. Hopefully, The Lost Daughter will make it in Best Picture, but that could be at the expense of Being the Ricardos. In any case, I find this disconnect rather sad, but interesting. Seems like a pipeline problem -- the industry needs to make the films with broad appeal and strong lead roles for women, the studios need to push those films for best picture and best actress, and the voters need to give those films more attention. In any case, this could also hint at some surprises -- maybe an actress nomination for Haim, Jones, McDormand, Lawrence, or Zegler. Or BP for Spencer.
Very sad how easy it is for someone like McKay to keep getting noticed with such mediocre work. Big Short had its moments, HATED Vice, and Don't Look Up...had its moments. Nothing more and he's about to go 3/3? SMDH.
I think the combination of Netflix promotion and reach + big movie stars + canny internet "controversy" makes Don't Look Up a pretty safe bet. I think CODA is a bit wobbly... I don't really see Ricardos happening. I think there are 3 pretty open slots and Drive My Car, Lost Daughter, Spider-Man, tick, tick, BOOM, Spencer, Macbeth, Nightmare Alley all feel totally plausible.
It does seem like a year where "what would a 5 picture lineup be" is an interesting question. My instinct is Power of the Dog, Belfast, West Side Story, Dune, and King Richard... (with 4/5 director match)... but Don't Look Up and Licorice Pizza could easily replace basically any of those.
Nathaniel, why do you think A Hero is the foreign pic with the most Best Picture heat? It seems well-received but hasn't gotten nearly the critical heat of Drive My Car (to say nothing of Hand of God, Titane, Flee, Memoria, Worst Person...)
Nathaniel: my gut is telling me Penelope Cruz is getting in. Who does she bump out? I think it's Gaga or Kidman unfortunately. Too bad - I loved both those performances. I could even see a world where both Kidman and Gaga miss. And if Hudson gets a SAG nomination watch out.
I hope Maggie Gyllenhaal gets some recognition for her writing (adaptation) and directorial debut (some fantastic choices, shots and beats), but The Lost Daughter is just a weird story, and while the central performances from Colman and Buckley, and Johnson (those eyes!) are good, it left me cold and depressed. Maybe because I'm a mother of two daughters, but more likely it's because I'm not a fan of Ferrante's novels.
Though I haven't seen a lot on the charts, my favorites of the year are still tick tick Boom, with Summer of Soul for best doc. Cumberbatch is my bet for actor, though I would love to see Andrew Garfield take it.
Kamala and Sleepy Joe are doing quite a mess with the infections.
Rooting hard for Tick Tick Boom to get one of those surprise spots. It's so superior to the alternatives.
@mikey67, it's not uncommon for Best Actress to have the least crossover with BP. It's fairly common among the categories, largley because of how Hollywood and studios position and view films about women. While 1/5 is low, in recent years it has been:
2020: 2/5; 2019: 2/5; 2018: 3/5; 2017: 4/5; 2016: 1/5
Compare that to Best Actor:
2020: 4/5; 2019: 3/5; 2018:4/5; 2017: 4/5; 2016: 4/5
Other 1/5 years for Best Actress: 2014, 2011 and many of the years with only 5 BP nominees
You're right about the problem, but it seems pretty consistent, even if it has been a few years since we've seen it be 1/5. Studios don't position films about women as Best Picture contenders.
1) I can't see Drive my car getting in, for Best Picture. I can see Parallel Mothers surprising in one or many of these: Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay and Score. Even Cinematography. It's peaking late, but it is doing so... GG 2 noms and LAFCA for Cruz. BAFTA and SAG will tell us.
In the old 5-pic era, I think we'd be looking at:
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
West Side Story
Belfast
Power of the Dog
with a Pic/Director split of Denis V. for Dune instead of Reinaldo Green for King Richard.
@Joe G It's sad. There used to be a time when films about women were very much in the Best Picture lane, especially the late 70s and early 80s: THE TURNING POINT, JULIA, THE GOODBYE GIRL, AN UNMARRIED WOMAN, NORMA RAE, TESS, COAL MINER'S DAUGHTER, TERMS OF ENDEARMENT, OUT OF AFRICA...
Peter -- just a gut feeling with A HERO. The other foreign titles all have pretty strong deterents to making it in. Drive My Car has that gargantuan running time, Hand of God is kind of in the same position as A Hero (very well liked but hasn't been winning things), Titane is just too strange for Oscar, Flee just has no buzz (and already has *ample* place to reward it, Memoria also has no buzz. WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD would have definitely had more heat if NEON had actually released it.
@Nathaniel... am I wrong or A Hero is up for international? I think it's Parallel Mothers the film that is more likely to surprise... specially if BAFTA embraces it (Almodovar is a Best Director winner at BAFTA, for example)
I predict Drive my Car breaking in best picture.
I love McKay but I also love to see how he's regularly loathed on Thefilmexperience
RIP to the login, making this place palatable. Welcome back trolls and creeps.
Yeah what’s up with the impostors again? What happened to our accounts ?
Gigi & Cal -- i will reinstate it. I was just checking to see if people would behave but i'll put it back up. it was a failed experiment.
@Nathaniel R.
You have DUNE listed as both tier one and tier two in your Adapted Screenplay rankings.
@Gigi-is it referred to my comment? I think you misunderstood, there was no hate or dissing. I'm just amused by the fact. English is not my fist language, maybe I didn't write in the right tone
I still reckon RICARDOS will do much better with SAG and Oscar. It just seems like their thing.
@PP92. I think Gigi was referring to "Mike in Canada" and maybe some comments on other threads. I don't think anybody could see your comment as inappropriate. ;)
That cal roth that wanted the login back was not me! (But I agree with him). Such a Charlie Kaufman like situation!