Golden Globe Predix. Which movies / celebrities will they love most?

by Nathaniel R

Do people remember that the original AVATAR triumphed at the Globes. Might AVATAR THE WAY OF WATER repeat?

The Golden Globe nominations arrive on Monday morning. The HFPA has been (mostly) dormant since their broadcast banishment but they hope to be back on the mainstream audience's radar this year. They've been doing internal reforms and recruiting new members, so predicting them is theoretically a whole new ballgame.

Both Tom Cruise and Brendan Fraser have both been outspoken anti-Globe celebrities and the Globes have also been taken to task for racial biases. Either of these things might play into voting or they might not. Because you need a guiding principal for wide open contests like this, the one I've chosen is assuming they'll love Elvis (a very Globes-friendly film) and Banshees of The Inisherin the most.  Who knows how they'll vote but let's try to predict anyway.  But let's try anyway... 

PICTURE DRAMA	PICTURE COMEDY/ MUSICAL
• Avatar Way of the Water • Elvis • The Fabelmans • She Said • Top Gun Maverick • Women Talking Not many people seem to remember this but Avatar won both Picture and Director at the Globes before losing at the Oscars. NOTE: In an earlier draft I forgot Women Talking so we're predicting an extra nominee here which they sometimes do! Potential Spoilers:  Empire of Light, Tár, Till, Woman King	• Babylon • Banshees of Inisherin • Everything Everywhere All At Once • Glass Onion • The Menu Potential Surprise: Mrs Harris Goes To Paris, Cha Cha Real Smooth Potential Spoilers: Triangle of Sadness, White Noise, Amsterdam, Hustle, Spirited, and Bros
LEAD ACTRESS, DRAMA	LEAD ACTRESS, COMEDY/MUSICAL
• Cate Blanchett, Tár • Olivia Colman, Empire of Light • Ana De Armas, Blonde • Danielle Deadwyler, Till • Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway Potential Spoilers: Since I'm going for TWO surprises -- Ana De Armas and Jennifer Lawrence --  that leaves out probably safer bets like Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)	• Margot Robbie, Babylon • Julia Roberts, Ticket to Paradise • Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu • Emma Thompson, Good Luck To You... • Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere Potential Spoiler: Lesley Manville (Mrs Harris Goes to Paris) Longshot:  Bella Ramsey (Catherine Called Birdy)
LEAD ACTOR, DRAMA	LEAD ACTOR, COMEDY/MUSICAL
• Austin Butler, Elvis • Tom Cruise, Top Gun Maverick • Brendan Fraser, The Whale • Hugh Jackman, The Son • Bill Nighy, Living Betting that they'll pointedly ignore Tom Cruise and Brendan Fraser's very public anti-Globe statements and nominate them anyway, hoping and betting that most of Hollywood wants to party again and forgive them. Potential Spoilers: Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)	• Diego Calva, Babylon • George Clooney, Ticket to Paradise • Daniel Craig, Glass Onion • Colin Farrell, Banshees of Inisherin • Ralph Fiennes, The Menu Potential Spoilers: Adam Sandler (Hustle), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) Long Shots: Ryan Reynolds (Spirited), Brad Pitt (Bullet Train) and Billy Eichner (Bros)
OTHER CATEGORIES
SUPPORTING ACTRESS	SUPPORTING ACTOR
• Jessie Buckley, Women Talking • Kerry Condon, Banshees of Inisherin • Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere... • Claire Foy, Women Talking • Janelle Monae, Glass Onion Potential Spoilers: There are so many possibilities but if they go celebrity: Anne Hathaway (Armageddon Time), Carey Mulligan (She Said), Angela Bassett (Wakanda Forever) or Jean Smart (Babylon) could surprise.  Long Shots: if they're feeling critics rave vibes then they might choose Nina Hoss (Tar) or Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness)	• Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere... • Brendan Gleeson, Banshees of Inisherin • Tom Hanks, Elvis • Brad Pitt, Babylon • Ben Whishaw, Women Talking Potential Spoilers: Since I'm betting on a tom hanks surprise I had to jettison the best supporting option of Barry Keoghan (done in by Category Fraud!), and/or Paul Dano (Fabelmans), and Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) Long Shots: Mark Rylance (Bones and All), Edward Norton (Glass Onion)
DIRECTOR	SCREENPLAY
• Cameron, Avatar Way of the Water • Luhrmann, Elvis • McDonagh, Banshees of Inisherin • Polley, Women Talking • Spielberg, Fabelmans Potential Spoilers: Other possibilities abound including Chazelle (Babylon), Luhrmann (Elvis), Prince-Bythewood (Woman King), Field (Tár)	• The Banshees of Inisherin • Everything Everywhere All At Once • The Fabelmans • Tár • Women Talking Potential Spoilers: anything since they combine Adapted and Original here...
INTERNATIONAL FILM	ANIMATED FILM
• All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) • Corsage (Austria) • Decision to Leave (South Korea) • EO (Poland) • RRR (India) Potential Spoiler: It could literallly be anything. They are not limited to just the Oscar submission -hence the RRR prediction.	• Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio • Marcel the Shell with Shoes On • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish • Sea Beast • Turning Red Potential Spoilers: Bad Guys, Lightyear, My Father's Dragon, Charlotte
SCORE	SONG
• Babylon • Banshees of Inisherin • Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio • Tár • Women Talking Potential Spoilers: The Fabelmans, Women Talking, Empire of Light, She Said, Avatar Way of the Water, White Noise	• Black Panther Wakana Forever "Lift Me Up" • Don't Worry Darling "With You All The Time" • Top Gun Maverick "Hold My Hand" • Turning Red "Nobody Like U" • Where the Crawdads Sing "Carolina" Potential Spoilers: Anything... but they love the big celebrities in this category hence our very celebrity focused predictions.  Pinocchio and RRR feel like better bets with Oscar than here

WHAT ARE YOU BETTING ON? How wrong do you think these predictions will be?

Comments

[Glenn Dunks]

I can't say too much about my own Golden Globes ballot, but... there's definitely quite a bit of difference along with quite a bit of crossover. Several films you've mentioned didn't send digital screeners out, though, so some of us weren't even able to see the movies in time.

[Finbar McBride]

I wonder if Nicholas Cage might surprise on the Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical ballot for the Spring release The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent.

[G.Shaq]

I sense the acting categories will be more diverse that those predictions

[A DK]

This is off topic, but having just rewatched Banshees I'm not completely convinced that Gleeson's Colm is a leading role. Going on both the idea of arcs and point-of-view, I think Colm has less of both than Siobhan for example. Even in structure, Colm has his scenes with either Pádraic or Siobhan, whereas Siobham has scenes with Colm and Pádraic and Dominic and more with the other townspeople. Colm feels the inciting incident, but the film seems more about Paddy's wrestling with Colm's change rather than the two wrestling together.

(As far as blurry supporting/lead player goes, I think Ke Huy Quan makes more sense to me as someone who blurs the lines.)

[Edwin]

Tom Hanks for Elvis is the most typically Golden Globes sort of nomination, so of course that's what they're going to do. I also have this creeping feeling that a SAG nomination will follow and suddenly we'll be considering the distinct possibility that it might even materialize into an Oscar nomination. I don't know, I just think this is going to be an unusually mainstream kind of year for the Oscars, and that might just be a side effect of it, as maligned as the performance is.

Babylon seems like the kind of movie that could either get like 6 nominations or just 1 or 2, and either scenario seems equally plausible.

Also, the Globes have shown in the past that they're willing to go against category fraud in certain cases (probably since they have the Drama and Comedy/Musical categories), so I wouldn't be surprised if Brendan Gleeson ends up nominated in the lead category here despite his supporting campaign. It's not like the Comedy/Musical category is all that stacked this year, so it's possible. I haven't seen Banshees of Inisherin yet so I don't have an opinion on whether he's actually a lead or supporting actor, but I do agree with A DK above that Ke Huy Quan could definitely be argued as a co-lead.

[thevoid99]

We all know they're going to pick shitty-ass films and shows. The Globes are bullshit.

[Philip H.]

Honestly, for better or worse, The Globes are WAY more interesting than the Oscars … and that’s why they’re the immortal cockroaches of Hollywood.

There are bold choices they’ve made over the years that I applaud bc awards should not be so stuffy, and they know this. They are a singular organization and actually have an identity, unlike any other awards show that kisses the Oscars feet and stops there.

I look forward to a fun nomination they will inevitably hand out to someone incredibly deserving that won’t be recognized elsewhere.

[McGill]

If the Globes want to gain some respectability, I don’t think the effective strategy is to grovel. They have to make the Oscars look bad by comparison, as if the Oscars are the territory of rich old white men.

I suggest 2 strategies.

(A) There are Globe categories that nobody cares about, like Best Director. No director thinks getting nominated for a Globe adds to their prestige. In these cases, nominate a slate of women and POC, to make the Oscars look white, male, and hidebound.
Eg: Best Director
- Céline Sciamma, Petite Maman
- Sarah Polley, Women Talking
- Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King
- María Schrader, She Said
- The Daniels, Everything Everywhere

(B) Why were the Globes popular?
Because they had more acting categories, and these are the “fun” categories.
The Oscars have (5 nominees x 4 categories = 20 nominees).
The Globes have (5 nominees x 6 categories = 30 nominees).

People have asked in the past why there are separate Drama and Musical/Comedy categories for the leads, but not for the supporting players. I suggest expanding the supporting categories so they also have Drama and Comedy/Musical separation.

Then the Globes would have (5 nominees x 8 categories = 40 nominees). 40 Globe nominees over 20 Oscar nominees is a lot more action.

Now in the acting categories, there are usually only 2 or 3 performers out of 5 who have a strong consensus. The others are (sometimes) worthy fillers, usually white performers who have been nominated before.

Since it doesn’t matter who fills the #4 and #5 slots, choose POC. (Again, this will make the Oscars look old and white).
For example:

Actor (Drama): #4 Jeremy Pope, The Inspection, #5 Jonathan Majors, Devotion.

Supporting Actress (Drama): #3 Angela Bassett, Wakanda Forever, #4 Gabrielle Union, The Inspection, #5 Sheila Atim, The Woman King.

Supporting Actress (Com/Mus): #3 Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere, #4 Janelle Monae, The Glass Onion, #5 Lashana Lynch, Matilda: The Musical.

Supporting Actor (Drama): #3 Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway, #4 Raul Castillo, The Inspection, #5 Tenoch Huerta, Wakanda Forever.

Supporting Actor (Com/Mus): #1 Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere, #2 your choice, #3 Pedro Pascal, The Unbearable Weight Of Massive Talent, #4 David Oyelowo, See How They Run, #5 Clarke Peters, I Wanna Dance With Somebody.

And of course, the reason they are adding more supporting categories is because supporting actors don’t get enough respect.

[McGill]

Oops, sorry. I’ve been on a long train journey today with time on my hands. My apologies.

[Chris]

Do you think that the waiting until the last second to screen Avatar could affect it's nomination total? I'm not entirely sure when voting ended, but I heard Wednesday which doesn't seem like too much time to screen.

[pascal le]

McGill : LOVED YOUR "Oops, sorry. I’ve been on a long train journey today with time on my hands. My apologies." :)

[Mr Ripley79]

I am just doing acting,I heard Naomi Ackie's Whitney film didn't screen,why so quiet on that film,she is out.

Actor Drama Butler,Cruise,LaBelle,Nighy,Fraser

Actress Drama Davis,Colman,Blanchett,Deadwyler,Williams

Actor Comedy Farrell,Fiennes,Craig,McCormack,Clooney

Actress Comedy Robbie,Yeoh,Roberts,Taylor Joy,Thompson

S/Actor ,Quan,Gleeson,Dano,Hanks,Norton

S/Actress Curtis,Monae,Foy,Buckley,Condon

[Yehon]

@Chris Herlihy - They went through ridicolous lengths to screen it to Globe voters. Don't know if it'll do much good, but if it's snubbed it's not because people didn't see it.

[Nick H]

Hey Nathaniel, great incisive predictions as always but, pardon me if I’m being presumptuous but I’m almost certain you meant to predict Women Talking in BP:Drama (I’m guessing you crossed your wires with “Women” and “She Said.”)

Also, I’m guessing you know something I don’t, has Babylon been confirmed to compete as a comedy? I’m guessing it’s being campaigned as such but is there any list available stating which categories the HFPA decided on for some of the dramedies/genre-ambiguous films? In past years I remember this info being released but I can’t seem to find any this year.

[Michael R]

Really hope you're correct about de Armas Nat. That performance blew my mind.

[lemonzestysour1]

I came here to comment the same thing Nick H - surely you mean Women Talking if you have it in Director rather than She said - very easy to mistake :D

[Peter]

I’m surprised Elvis wouldn’t be in the Musical category.

[Sonam Sharma]

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[jules]

Remember I said Deadwyler would have a tough time getting a nod this year?

A line-up of Yeoh, Blanchett, Williams, Davis, and Robbie is looking more likely.