The PGA goes to 'CODA' but we still have a race and here's why...
Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 1:43PM by Nathaniel R
CODA is still riding high on that SAG wave but will cresting during Oscar voting give it the win? If it does a LOT of records will be broken. No film since the current slate of categories was in place (many decades now) has managed a Best Picture win with only 3 Oscar nominations. Most film with 12+ Oscar nominations (like The Power of the Dog has) have won more than three Oscars though sometimes they've lost Best Picture (examples include Mary Poppins, The Song of Bernadette, and La La Land) . No films without either a Directing or an Editing nomination (since all the current categories were in place), and CODA has neither has won Best Picture. Finally no film by a streaming company has won Best Picture though this last stat was bound to fall sooner or later and will next Sunday whether CODA or Power of the Dog wins. Unless of course something else entirely surprises. Winners are after the jump...
OUTSTANDING PRODUCER OF A THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURE
- BEING THE RICARDOS - Todd Black
- BELFAST - Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik, Tamar Thomas
- ★ CODA - Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, Patrick Wachsberger
- DON'T LOOK UP - Adam McKay, Kevin Messick
- DUNE - Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Denis Villeneuve
- KING RICHARD - Tim White, Trevor White, Will Smith
- LICORICE PIZZA - Sara Murphy, Paul Thomas Anderson, Adam Sommer
- THE POWER OF THE DOG - Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning, Roger Frappier
- TICK TICK BOOM! - Julie Oh, Lin-Manuel Miranda
- WEST SIDE STORY - Steven Spielberg, Kristie Mackosko Krieger
This is obviously great news for CODA but it doesn't mean it's locked to win Best Picture. In the 32 previous years of PGA the following 11 winners did not repeat at the Oscars:
- 1917 (2019)
- La La Land (2016)
- The Big Short (2015)
- Gravity (2013... though it won in a tie with 12 Years a Slave so the PGA choice did win)
- Little Miss Sunshine (2006)
- Brokeback Mountain (2005)
- The Aviator (2004)
- Moulin Rouge! (2001)
- Saving Private Ryan (1998)
- Apollo 13 (1995)
- The Crying Game (1992)
In other words we still have a race but it's much tighter than we expected it to be at this late juncture.
OUTSTANDING PRODUCER OF AN ANIMATED MOTION PICTURE
- ★ Encanto, Yvett Merino, Clark Spencer
- Luca, Andrea Warren
- Mitchells vs the Machines, Phil Lord, Chris Miller, Kurt Albrecht
- Raya and the Last Dragon, Osnat Shurer, Peter Del Vecho
- Sing 2, Chris Meledandri, Janet Healy
It's coming down to the wire with Mitchells vs the Machines winning CCA, Annies, and most critics awards while Encanto has taken BAFTA, Globe, and PGA. Since the industy awards are more telling we're predicting Encanto but Mitchells is a strong spoiler possibiity.
OUTSTANDING PRODUCER OF EPISODIC TELEVISION DRAMA
- Handmaids Tale (Season 4)
- The Morning Show (Season 2)
- Squid Game (Season 1)
- ★ Succession (Season 3)
- Yellowstone (Season 4)
OUTSTANDING PRODUCER OF EPISODIC TELEVISION COMEDY
- Cobra Kai (Seasons 3 & 4)
- Curb your Enthusiasm (Season 11)
- Hacks (Season 1)
- Only Murders in the Building (Season 1)
- ★ Ted Lasso (Season 2)
OUTSTANDING PRODUCER OF LIMITED ANTHOLOGY TELEVISION SERIES
- Dopesick
- ★ Mare of Easttown
- Underground Railroad
- WandaVision
- The White Lotus
OUTSTANDING PRODUCER OF TELEVISED MOTION PICTURES
- 8 Bit Christmas
- Come From Away
- Oslo
- Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia
- Single All the Way
- ★ Tom Petty, Somewhere You Feel Free: Making of Wildflowers
OUTSTANDING PRODUCER OF NON-FICTION TELEVISION
- 60 Minutes (Season 54)
- Allen V Farrow
- ★ Beatles Get Back
- Queer Eye (Season 6)
- Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy (Season 1)
OUTSTANDING PRODUCER OF LIVE ENTERTAINMENT, VARIETY, SKETCH, STANDUP, TALK TELEVISION
- Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Season 27)
- Dave Chappelle: The Closer
- ★ Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (Season 8)
- Late Show with Stephen Colbert (Season 7)
- Saturday Night Live (Season 47)
OUTSTANDING PRODUCER OF GAME & COMPETITION TELEVISION
- America's Got Talent (Season 16)
- Nailed It! (Seasons 5 & 6)
- ★ RuPaul's Drag Race (Season 13)
- Top Chef (Season 18)
- The Voice (season 20)
Best Picture, Oscar Trivia, PGA, Punditry, precursor awards
Reader Comments (18)
"No film with 12+ Oscar nominations (like The Power of the Dog has) has won less than four Oscars though sometimes they've lost Best Picture"
I'm not sure what will happen next weekend, but I think this stat will fall. It's easier for me to imagine CODA winning all three of its nominations than to imagine Power of the Dog winning any of its three - it only seems secure in Director.
Ever since CODA started picking up steam, I've thought it could be a dark horse for Best Picture. I still do, though I agree it's still an open race. Preferential voting really makes it harder to gauge how this is going to shake out.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button received 13 nominations and only 3 wins.
My extreme dislike of CODA is probably just the X factor it needs to secure it a win.
CODA is one of the worst movies nominated this year, the only good thing about is the acting, the res is just flat. I really hope The power of the dog gets the big prize.
Ugh this season is too long and I'm so nervous about CODA stealing TPOTD's much deserved win. It's a fine, heartwarming film but this is getting a little outta hand. Kotsur's prize is surely enough!
1. Johnny Belinda was nominated for 12 awards and only won 1, Becket was nominated for 12 awards and only won 1, Lincoln was nominated for 12 and only won 2
2. CODA is my #10 out of 10. If it wins, it will join Crash, The Deer Hunter and The Shape of Water - to name but 3 - in my personal hall of infamy for Worst Best Picture Winners of All Time. It may be the last straw for me. I boycotted the Oscars (well ok, I didn't watch the ceremonies - it's a relative term) for a couple of years after Brokeback Mountain's humiliation, and again after Argo was chosen over Lincoln. This is looking like hissy fit #3 developing.
I think there still seem to be some kinda Netflix bias plus the preferential ballot is definitely in CODA's favor. I'd assumed West Side Story would get the benefit out of preferential due to nostalgia, past win, Spielberg etc but seems that not happening.
Also, I know it's nothing to do with the academy but I find it interesting that The Power of the Dog is 6.9 at imdb, I think I couldn't find a BP winner from the last 25-30 years rated that low. CODA stands at 8.0 though with less votes. On a sidenote, unbelievable that Green Book is still at 8.2 after more than 3 years...
On the bright side: it wasn't King Richard, Being the Ricardos or Belfast.
@Amy Camus — I’m dumbstruck to see anyone place The Deer Hunter and The Shape of Water on a footing with Crash. The latter isn’t worthy of being a doormat at the homes of those other two. CODA is my #2 out of 10, and while I’d be thrilled with either Belfast (my #1) or The Power of the Dog (my #3) winning Best Picture, I’m rooting for CODA. Awards season is all about momentum, and it’s peaking at the right time.
CODA will be the first ABC Family original movie to win Best Picture
The Deer Hunter is just there with both Godfathers, On The Waterfront, Amadeus and All About Eve among the best BP winners of all time.
@Amy Camus: I prefer to think of the win of Crash over Brokeback Mountain as a humiliation for the academy and not Brokeback itself. It was a boneheaded decision born of rank homophobia and truly epic-level bad taste. Crash should have never been anywhere near a BP nomination, much less a win—though it's satisfying to see it routinely showing up either near or at the very bottom of every one of those various "All The Best Picture Winners, Ranked" lists.
It looks like CODA is peaking at just the right time, before any backlash can kick in. Basically just luck, as there's a lot there for detractors. I remember predicting it could be a preferential-ballot champion a few weeks back. Generally, despite having watched them since forever, ole Marsha's predicting ability is quite low, so let's hope Power of the Dog finds a way to pull it out!
PS, coincidentally I've been thinking about re-visiting The Deer Hunter, which seems surprisingly low profile given that it's a BP winner and has its cast and director. I haven't seen it in a decade at least. I hope it doesn't feel as retrograde as Crash or Green Book!
The recently installed more sophisticated international voters, the ones who surprised us by nudging MOONLIGHT and Anthony Hopkins to their surprising wins, will help POWER OF THE DOG squeak through, methinks.
Why are all the LA journalists pushing for CODA?
OMG. If CODA wins, I'm going to lose what is left of my mind.
Dan H — I’m with you on that. The guilds (especially PGA and SAG, where CODA won) are a lot more “traditional” (make of that what you will) than the Academy at this point thanks to these apparent new blocs of younger and international voters in the latter. My partner is a SAG member, and I’ve seen firsthand what a lot of the people on the SAG forums are like. Anyone who thinks actors are all artsy progressives has never spoken to the SAG status quo.
So I still think POTD will win, although I don’t think it’ll win more than 3 total Oscars, maybe 4 tops. Because of the various blocs within the Academy membership, I think the days of the sweep are over.