Oscar Volley: Can anyone beat Jane Campion? Or, rather, who is in second place?

Team Experience is discussing the various Oscar categories. Here's Mark Brinkerhoff and Timothy Lyons to discuss Best Director

MARK BRINKERHOFF: There's only a few days left of Oscar voting. So, in the spirit of balloting, let’s settle something when in comes to one of this year’s presumably more predictable categories: Best Director. And the 2021 nominees are...

• Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
• Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
• Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
• Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Though international directors are hardly novel in this category (particularly over the past decade), it is remarkable that, for the fourth year in a row, there is at least one director of a non-English language film nominated. We also have the fourth female director nominated in this category since 2017. Are we in agreement that this is Campion’s to lose? I mean, given the still-shocking snub of Denis Villeneuve for Dune, who else could pose a serious challenge here?

TIMOTHY LYONS: Post-DGAs, it’s honestly hard to visualise a reality where Jane Campion doesn’t win at the Oscars. Her victory has seemingly been a foregone conclusion as far back as Venice with an almost clean sweep of precursors only solidifying things. That being said, the Academy are a fickle bunch of individuals. While a Campion loss would be supremely shocking, stranger things have happened.

You almost have to look more at what’s happening in Best Picture to unpack if there is any room for a surprise in Best Director, no? The narrative as it stands seems to be that even if The Power of the Dog loses the top prize, Campion can still hold with her individual achievement as an auteur being so formidable. Can the same be said for any of the other four? Or do you agree it would take a Best Picture win to pull any of them into the winner’s circle here?

MARK: Interesting point. If we’re reading the tea leaves correctly, the one film that is surging now, that very well could leap-frog over The Power of the Dog to win Best Picture is… CODA —not Belfast, the People’s Choice Award Winner at last year’s TIFF, as *had* been floated once upon a time. Given CODA’s lack of a director nom, and Belfast’s seemingly faded prospects, it appears all the more assured that Campion is as sure a thing as any since we can consider the overdue Anderson and Hamaguchi just happy to be nominated this year, while Spielberg won’t be winning his third for an underperforming remake of a film that already won Best Picture and Director, no?

TIMOTHY: Yes, there is absolutely no way Spielberg is taking this. Even in a world where West Side Story was a huge hit, it would have a better chance as a populist potential Best Picture pick than for the already amply rewarded Spielberg as Best Director. I’d confidently argue the closest he has ever come to a third victory was probably in 2012 for Lincoln when that race opened up thanks to Ben Affleck’s snub for *heavy* Best Picture-favoured Argo. If CODA follows in that film’s footsteps to a victory sans Director nod then *theoretically* you’re talking an open race here in Best Director. But I just don’t think it’s so. I’d say if things really shake out for CODA then you’re looking more at a 2018 for the BP/BD split. Before I ramble on forever please help me thread this needle by expanding on what happened in that particular year…

MARK: Oh, lord, must we? Julia Roberts’ announcing Green Book haunts me to this day, but it is worth noting that only five films in Oscar history have won Best Picture without a corresponding Best Director nom—two of them (Wings and Grand Hotel) during the Academy’s first five years and the most recent two (Argo and Green Book) within the last decade. But even if we’re heading for a split year (generally my preference), Campion, who’s won virtually every award there is (including now BAFTA and the DGA, which incidentally awarded first-time feature to Maggie Gyllenhaal). How cool is it that female directors are having their moment and dominating thus far in the 2020s? Shall we rank the nominees in order of more likely to come out on top?

TIMOTHY: Ha ha, congrats on not taking the bait to revisit that dire year but I did think it was worth drawing that parallel. If CODA takes Best Picture as the more middle of the road choice (far superior to Green Book it must be said) then there still is that precedent for the more acclaimed but widely divisive early frontrunner (The Power of the Dog/Roma) to truly cruise to the Director win almost without serious competition. But, yes, a ranking of likelihood: Jane Campion is obviously number one with a bullet. From there I would go Anderson (considered overdue but likely to find himself rewarded in Original Screenplay as consolation), Branagh (if Belfast is still hovering anywhere near the top of Best Picture), Spielberg and Hamaguchi. Are we in agreement on our rankings, and who would be your personal pick(s)?

MARK: One thing I can say for the Oscars (at least in this century) is that Best Picture and Best Director outcomes are blessedly not beholden to each other. (The directors’ branch certainly has a mind of its own.) In years where I figured a split was possible (like last year) or even probable (like 2014, when Birdman won both), it didn’t happen. By contrast, in years where I thought one film would run the table (like La La Land in 2016), it didn’t, with preferential ballot results redounding to Moonlight’s and Spotlight’s ultimate—and well-deserved—benefit, for example. 

Yet it feels right that visionary auteurs like Bong Joon-ho, Chloé Zhao, and Guillermo del Toro have matching director and picture Oscars for peculiar films only they could make, which is what I want/hope for Campion this year. Controversies aside, she’s way out in the lead (the film itself less so), with Spielberg, Anderson, Hamaguchi, and Branagh (boy did Belfast fade fast) at the tail end of the lineup. (Branagh, I suppose, can take comfort in the fact that he has been nominated now in seven [!!!] different Oscar categories—a record in Academy history.) And that ranking roughly aligns with my personal picks (among these five), though the three in the middle could be slightly reordered and still bookended by the runaway leader and distant follower. (Again, Denis Villeneuve’s absence here simplifies this race a lot.)

 

Take heart, director stans, we’ll always have our current crop of favorite memes.

 

TIMOTHY: Long live the legendary house of Hamaguchi!

Completely agree that the frequent splits have been a refreshing change of pace. There was a long long era there where Best Director may as well have been absorbed into the top prize. I do think 2014 is an interesting example since I always see that as a year that was always going to go all in on one film but the question was always which one between Birdman and Boyhood. Maybe I’m misremembering but I thought the narrative for and perceived success of each was inextricably tied to their directorial achievements. Anyway I digress…

So happy to see (post-DGA/-BAFTA/-Critics Choice — what a week for this particular volley) that Campion appears to be completely unbeatable. Directly following Chloé Zhao’s win, it’s so heartening since Oscar can often be so progressive one year before retreating back to their regressive tendencies. Rewarding two female identifying filmmakers in a row is a wonderful thing but obviously there is still so far to go in terms of diversity.

You mentioned the lovely DGA mention for Maggie Gyllenhaal as first time director and that leads me to personal picks outside the nominees. I’d definitely stump for the The Lost Daughter director and have a few more but let me pass the baton before I go whole hog into mine. Any you’d like to recognise?

 

MARK: Personally, I could pick exclusively female directors for my five, with more than a few worthy women left over (Rachel Fleit, Mia Hansen-Løve, Sian Heder, Joanna Hogg, Emma Seligman, etc.)—that's how remarkable the year has been:

• Janicza Bravo, Zola
• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
• Julia Ducournau, Titane 
• Maggie Gyllenhall, The Lost Daughter
• Rebecca Hall, Passing

Now, that’s not to say of course that Hollywood has achieved anything close to parity, as there were actually fewer female directors helming major films in 2021 vs. 2020, but let’s revel in the accomplishments of the aforementioned five—all distinct, genre-spanning masterworks. May this become the mainstay, moving forward.

 

TIMOTHY: Heartily agree that 2021 was a remarkable year for the achievements of women directors and, in that respect, it seems quite fitting that Campion (having flown that flag for decades now) should be somewhat representative of that with her presumed win. My personal top five are actually very close to yours:

• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
• Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
• Rebecca Hall, Passing  

…so many amazing women floating around the top but couldn’t leave off:

• Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
• Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World (my winner - the things I could say about that film)

All of them to my mind are distinguished by their deft and creative handling of tricky material and a few for juggling potentially jarring shifts in tone with ease. But it was an embarrassment of riches across the spectrum in 2021 and my choices could change on any given day.

And with that I think we’ve just about mined all we have to say about a category that is presumably so cemented. It couldn’t happen to a more brilliant (or frankly unexpected) artist than Campion. Thanks for the spirited conversation! 

Comments

[Jésus Alonso]

If they know about filmmaking, Steven Spielberg should win in a heartbeat. His masterclass in visual language delivers one of the best musicals ever made, objectively speaking, with plenty of sequences that are simply breathtaking... I haven't seen Drive my car nor Licorice Pizza, but I doubt they would be the masterful show off, of visual language that WSS is.

I'd say that it should be 1. Spielberg, 2. Branagh and 3. Campion, this time. I love Campion's achievement, but she's really slightly under Spielberg and Branagh this time.

[brookesboy]

I am ecstatic about the great achievements women directors have made this year. But I am at a loss as to why Campion is cake-walking to this Oscar win. I think her film is a powerful feat, but in my opinion is not the masterpiece everyone says. JMO. Villeneuve, Miranda and Rebecca Hall should be in this lineup, and I consider their films superior to The Power of the Dog.

Of the nominees, Branagh did fine work. But Anderson's film was not well-directed and he should not be on this Oscar list.

[Edwin]

I kind of think Hamaguchi will land in second place, although it should be noted that coming in second place is not the same thing as “would win if the frontrunner were out of competition.” I just think that with Campion being SUCH a lock (probably the biggest lock of this year’s ceremony give or take Dune winning Best Visual Effects), Drive My Car’s position as the other film in this lineup that seems like it’ll be a lot of voters’ #1 pick of the year makes me think Hamaguchi will land in second place. Branagh and Spielberg would both be more likely winners if Power of the Dog hadn’t been released this year, but I don’t sense that there’s enough momentum for either of them as a viable alternative to Campion for them to even come close to an upset.

[Frank Zappa]

Hamaguchi
Spielberg
Campion (winner)
Anderson
Branagh

[Aq. H]

I feel like this is the only given for The Power of the Dog (also my preference). I swear if The Eyes of Tammy Faye (which I enjoyed) ends up wining more Oscars than TPOTD I’m done y’all!

[Gallavich]

I love that everyone is talking about a potential CODA victory whitout directing and they never mention the editing

[Edwin]

PP92 - Yeah, CODA winning would fly in the face of quite a few Oscar statistics and records. I know records are made to be broken and all, but…I’m just not seeing it. First movie to win Best Picture without either a Director or Editing nomination, lowest total nominations for a Best Picture winner since 1932, first to win without having been nominated by the DGA, probably a few more. Now that it won the PGA it does have to be considered a legitimate threat, but it would still be an anomaly for sure.

[Pancake Bacon]

I knew the Excalibur would come up: what a treasure trove of early appearances of today's icons. But Ciaran Hinds came on my radar with his earth-scorching sexiness that was Captain Wentworth in Persuasion.

The Ref has long been a favorite (Judy Davis! I forever stan), and before it went all horrid for the KevSpac, this movie had my personal favorite bit of onscreen acting, specifically the scene when he gets tied up, he "reacted" to being so close to wife Judy. The expression on his face was just masterful acting. Now the appreciation for that moment is a bit ruined, of course. It's still a great movie, I think (?).

[cal roth]

@Jesus Alonso Virtuosity doesn't equal good filmmaking at all. "Objectively speaking", WSS is not even the best musical of this year?

[brookesboy]

Aq. H--If we can survive Green Book winning Best Picture, then we can survive this.

[NATHANIEL R]

Cal & Jesus -- yeah "objectively" is not the way to go on opinions. I dont personally think WEST SIDE STORY is even the second best musical of the year but the third. After IN THE HEIGHTS and TICK TICK BOOM! It's certainly showy direction though.