Which shows will be Tony Award nominated next week?

by Patrick Ball

Daniel Craig and Ruth Negga in a modern "Macbeth"

It’s only been 8 months since last year’s long delayed Tony Awards, but it’s time to celebrate the best of The Great White Way once more. This year’s crop represents the first full season since 18 months back when Covid chaos  closed the industry that depends on gathering patrons en masse in close quarters. Though at times it was a bumpy road back to anything approaching normal for Broadway, come Tony season we actually have a pretty robust roster of new shows ready for their turn in the awards season sun.

Nominations will be announced by Tina: The Tina Turner Musical’s Tony Winning Adrienne Warren and Joshua Henry on Monday May 9th. The Tonys will be broadcast live June 12th on CBS and Paramount+ and will be hosted by our newly minted Oscar winner and former Tony nominee Ariana Debose. 

Unlike the Oscars, the Tonys are in a bit of a world unto themselves in the landscape of theater awards...

There are a couple precursor Awards bodies, but none with significant voting body overlap. The Outer Critics Circle Awards are voted on by national journalists who write about Broadway for regional media and have both Broadway and off-Broadway categories. The Drama Desk Awards lump all of Broadway, Off-Broadway, and Off-Off-Broadway into the same categories so the breadth of potential nominees is much wider. And the Drama League Awards pick a Best Play and Best Musical, but only *one* single performance as the standout of the year.

The Tony Awards is the only awards show that focuses solely on shows playing at one of the 41 Manhattan theatres officially designated as Broadway and has an Oscars style slate of categories, awarding Tonys for performances, writing, direction, design, and of course the big ones: Best Play and Best Musical.

Let’s dig into this year’s contenders for nominations on Monday, but first a little clarification.

The Tony nomination dates were pushed back one week to May 9th but the effect remains the same. Tony nominations can boost struggling shows or kill them. After the nominations there are usually a round of closings though in this era of intended limited runs it's perhaps less volatile than it once was. Broadway Shows opening before May 4th, 2022 are eligible this year. The term "Broadway" for those who aren't familiar, doesn't refer to the street itself but to the size of the theater. 500 or more seats here is Broadway and anything less is "Off Broadway". A list of shows are after the jump with a few notes...

* = the show has already closed
(Date) = when the show is scheduled to close in case you've been dragging your feet about seeing it!

ORIGINAL MUSICALS ELIGIBLE

SIX is a huge hit. Will Tony voters also love it?

A surprisingly healthy amount of shows given that Broadway is still trying to resurrect itself two years after the all-theaters shutdown. There are generally 4 nominees in this category so it's very competitive...

• Diana* - The filmed for Netflix hate-watch sensation: Diana, the pop bio-musical about the titular Princess, opened last winter to dismal reviews and closed shortly after. It did hail from the Tony winning creators of 2010’s Best Musical winner Memphis and star Jeanna de Waal’s royal vocals impressed, but Diana looks unlikely to follow in that show’s footsteps.

• Flying Over Sunset* - This quirky new musical based on the true story of shared experimentation with LSD between Cary Grant, Clare Booth Luce, and Aldous Huxley was anticipated to be the highbrow highlight of the season. But the show, from the formidable team of theatre giants James Lapine, Tom Kitt, and Michael Korie, wasn’t able to drum up much interest from critics or audiences alike. Still may break through for some well-regarded performances and design elements. 

• Girl from the North Country (June 11th) - Jukebox musical using Bob Dylan songs so it's not eligible for original score (which often is paired with the Best Musical winner). Decently reviewed but doesn't have much in the way of buzz once newer, shinier things opened.

• MJ - Jukebox musical about Michael Jackson so it's also not eligible for original score. Mixed reviews, but a bona fide hit, it’s a strong contender to rack up at least a couple nominations for its performances and magnetic staging.

• Mr Saturday Night - An old-fashioned comedy and crooning vehicle for Billy Crystal’s Broadway return, based on his 1992 film. Also starring Tony winner Randy Graff, the big-voiced Shoshana Bean, and David Paymer (who is reprising his Oscar-nominated turn from the film). Encouragingly reviewed, so it’s definitely in the mix.

• Mrs Doubtfire - Another film-to-stage adaptation based on the beloved 1993 Robin Williams starrer, Mrs Doubtfire opened in December, went on hiatus during the challenging winter months on Broadway, and reopened just in time for Tony season. It’s the crowd-pleasing, family choice that touring houses will love to add to their seasons. But, can this by-the-numbers show inspire enough enthusiasm to take home a statue?

• Paradise Square - An ambitious new American musical about cultural and race relations in Manhattan’s Five Points neighborhood during the Civil War, Paradise Square brings to mind fond memories of previous Tony winning successes like Ragtime and Les Misérables. Reviews were mixed, but powerful performances and a tuneful original score always help.

• SIX - The high belting Tudor concert sensation about the six wives of Henry VIII, reframed as modern pop divas, has been a sell-out hit ever since its original London debut. A sure bet for a Best Musical nomination, but can any of the individual actresses break through in this ensemble show? 

• A Strange Loop - A Pulitizer prize winner after its 2019 Off-Broadway debut, it has finally arrived on Broadway as the talk of the town. This genre-busting meta-musical about the inner thoughts of a  “Fat, Black, and Queer” Broadway usher received raves, but can it pack houses? A slew of Tony nominations on Monday won't hurt.

MUSICAL REVIVALS ELIGIBLE

Hugh Jackman and Sutton Foster in the pricey revival of "Music Man"

The number of nominees tends to fluctuate between 3 or 4 nominees depending on the season. Given that there were only four shows this season, we're guessing one gets left out and as strange as it is to say, maybe it's Funny Girl given the reviews?

• Caroline or Change* This was the first Broadway revival of this genius show. The original 2004 production of this musical about a black maid working for a Jewish family in Louisiana in 1963 was up for 6 Tonys including Best Musical (but it won only Featured actress for Anika Noni Rose). The revival was met with ecstatic reviews, especially for Olivier-winning star Sharon D. Clarke, and is a real contender to take this category.

• Company This is the 3rd Broadway revival of the 1970 Sondheim classic. The original production was nominated for 14 Tonys and won 6 including Best Musical. Both previous revivals were nominated in this category but the 2006/2007 production (starring Raúl Esparza) won. Curiously Company has never led any actor or actress to a Tony win despite having great roles within it. Esparza's lead actor loss is one of the greatest Tony injustices we've ever seen. In this well-received gender-bent revival, expect performances by the likes of Tony winners Patti Lupone and Katrina Lenk to try to challenge that.

• Funny Girl This is the first ever Broadway revival of the show that Barbra Streisand famously took directly to the silver screen becoming a superstar in the process. The original production in 1964 was up for 8 Tony Awards but lost all of them (yes, Babs lost Best Actress... to Carol Channing in Hello, Dolly!) It’s a hit so far, but press has been mostly concerned with the critical reviews of star Beanie Feldstein and the production in general. Still, it has elements that may break through.

• The Music Man - This is the 2nd revival of Meredith Wilson's 1957 classic. The original was up for 10 Tonys winning 6 of them including Best Musical. The previous revival in 2000 was up for 8 Tonys but lost all of them. This long awaited new production stars Broadway juggernauts Hugh Jackman and Sutton Foster and received solid, if not thrilling, reviews. Will certainly show up in nominations, but can it take any hardware home.

PLAYS ELIGIBLE

Tracy Letts and fellow cast members for his latest "The Minutes"

There are generally either 4 or 5 nominees in this category. Only 4 of the eligible shows are still running so whichever isn't nominated will likely close earlier than intended. 

• Birthday Candles (May 29th) - Roundabout Theater Company’s production of this new play from Noah Haidle, stars Debra Messing in a performance that spans decades, and she bakes a cake onstage to boot. Always a welcome presence onstage, Messing is probably the show’s best bet for a nomination, but it will be a tough race to crack.

• Chicken & Biscuits* - A well-reviewed family comedy that closed early in the season, Chicken & Biscuits starring  Norm Lewis and Michael Urie will be embraced by many a regional theater. Unfortunately, it's likely to have been forgotten by the time nominations come.

• Clyde's* - In a limited fall run for 2nd Stage Theater, Emmy winners Uzo Aduba and Ron Cephas Jones brought the heat in Lynn Nottage’s new play about the denizens of a Pennsylvania sandwich shop. It’s definitely in the conversation, but has it stayed in voters’ minds?

• Dana H.* - This unique one woman tour de force from the mind of Lucas Hnath (author of 2017’s Tony-winning A Doll’s House Pt. 2), played in repertory with Is This a Room to a warm reception in the fall. Deirdre O’Connell’s lead performance will be the main element in contention come Monday.

• Hangmen (June 18th) - The long awaited Broadway arrival of this expectedly caustic play from Tony and Oscar nominee Martin McDonagh is a solid vehicle for yet another ensemble of fabulous West End talent to strut their stuff (in a biting dialogue kind of way) for New York audiences. Though not the playwright’s most rapturously received work, Alfie Allen is particularly good, the design is handsome, and there’s nothing quite like it on Broadway right now. Should have a good showing next week.

• Is This a Room* - Played in rep with the aforementioned Dana H., Is This a Room was a portrayal of a tense confrontation between the FBI and a suspected informant of Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential election. Though admired, will voters want to go there in the current ever-changing political landscape?

• The Lehman Trilogy* - This epic exploration of Financial Industry titans from playwright Stefano Massini, and directed by Tony and Oscar winner Sam Mendes, was the highlight of the fall season. Already showing up in many precursors, expect it to be embraced by the Tony nominating committee. 

• The Minutes (July 24th) - The newest play by the ever excellent Tracy Letts, The Minutes stars Schitts’ Creek’s Noah Reid as a naive city councilman solving a mystery in a familiar, but suspicious all too American town. A bold takedown of the mythos of America through the frame of small-town politics, it opened to encouraging reviews and considerable buzz. Consider it a top contender for a Best Play nomination.

• Pass Over* - One of the earliest shows to reopen Broadway after the shut down, this fascinating portrayal of the black experience across generations from Antoinette Chinonye Nwandu was a welcome return to the theatre, and a reminder of where Broadway can be headed post the reckoning of 2020. Unlikely to hold on with so many new shows jockeying for attention, but it will be fondly remembered regardless.

• POTUS (Aug 14th) - A brand new Noises Off-style screwball farce by Selina Fillinger, POTUS is a tale of the women of the white house trying to put out the fires set by a trouble-courting fictional President. Primarily a vehicle for a bevy of very funny women, POTUS stars Tony nominee Vanessa Williams, Tony winner Julie White, and serves as the Broadway debut of SNL’s iconic Rachel Dratch. Comedy is always a welcome reprieve in a sea of dramas all trying to open in time for eligibility, and the women of POTUS will be hoping it stands out enough.

• Skeleton Crew * - Phylicia Rashad (a 2005 Tony winner for August Wilson’s Gem of the Ocean) was the star of this play from Dominique Morriseau about Detroit factory workers on the eve of the 2008 economic crisis. It was a quiet, well-regarded success for Manhattan Theatre Club. Has a solid chance in a couple categories.

• Thoughts of a Colored Man* - This powerful show by Keenan Scott II about black brotherhood and identity closed early in the fall despite having  a bevy of starry producers. They're hoping it will have lingered in the minds of voters looking to make sure the nominations represent excellence from throughout the season, not just the Spring openings.

PLAY REVIVALS ELIGIBLE

David Morse and Mary Louise Parker reunite for the controversial drama "How I Learned to Drive"

The number of nominees fluctuates between 3-5 depending on the season. 7 shows are still running and the two that closed were well reviewed so this should be interesting when the nominations are announced.

• American Buffalo (July 10th) - The third Broadway revival of this classic from the always controversial David Mamet, this star-powered revival boasts performances from the likes of Laurence Fishburne, Sam Rockwell and Darren Criss. Reviews questioned the play (and Mamet’s) relevancy, but Rockwell and Fishburne both stand a good chance for nominations.

• for colored girls who have considered suicide / when the rainbow is enuf  (May 22nd) - The celebrated  dance/spoken word/ performance art piece from Ntozake Shange received a powerful and universally acclaimed staging from buzzy director/choreographer Camille A. Brown ( the first black woman to solo direct and choreograph on Broadway in 65+ years). Financial success on Broadway is tough though, and the show is closing 3 months early. Regardless, expect love from the nominating committee. 

• How I Learned to Drive (May 29th) - 2x Tony winner Mary-Louise Parker and Tony nominee David Morse bring Paula Vogel’s Pulitzer-winning classic to Broadway for the first time after starring in the original off-Broadway production together 25 years ago. Expect both stars to be in fierce competition for a nomination.

• Lackawanna Blues * - Ruben Santiago Hudson wrote and directed this soulful one man show, receiving a highly regarded revival last fall from Manhattan Theatre Club. Though it faces an uphill climb to be remembered, Hudson is a well-liked industry veteran.

• Macbeth (July 10th) - Yet another modern take on Shakespeare from downtown darling (and Tony winning) director Sam Gold, this new production of the uber-classic Scottish Play is set apart by the presence of its titanic stars: Daniel Craig and Ruth Negga. Reviews of Gold’s unorthodox staging were mixed but Negga received the strongest notices. Can she make up for the lack of Oscar nomination (that she so richly deserved) months ago?

• Plaza Suite (July 1st) - Sarah Jessica Parker and Matthew Broderick are back on Broadway, together this time, in this revival of Neil Simon’s 1968 play. Directed by Tony-winning actor John Benjamin Hickey, response was mixed but don’t be surprised if Parker sails to a nomination on pure star power. 

• The Skin of Our Teeth (May 29th) - A creative, maximalist revival of the zany, but outdated, classic from Thornton Wilder, Lincoln Center’s production is the debut staging of resident director Lileana Blain-Cruz. Boasting a talented cast, giving committed performances, a three hour satire from 1943 can be a tough sell for modern audiences (and critics). With this many contenders in the Play categories this season, it may struggle to break through past the design categories which Lincoln Center productions tend to always thrive.

• Take Me Out (June 11th) - The first Broadway revival of the celebrated 2003 Tony winner for Best Play, this production (originally scheduled for spring 2020) stars Modern Family’s Jesse Tyler Ferguson in his return to Broadway. Joining him from the small screen are Patrick J. Adams (Suits) and Jesse Williams (Grey's Anatomy ). The play, an exploration of gay identity in Major League baseball, was the talk of the town in its original production for its plentiful full-frontal nudity and powerful performances. This excellent revival is looking to be as much of a sensation, with audiences and voters alike. 

• Trouble in Mind * - This play, about race and sex issues in the theatre, by Alice Childress was first seen off-Broadway in *1955* and just received its Broadway premiere this season. Reviews were fantastic, pointing out that Childress’ play was clearly ahead of its time. Starring the always watchable Tony winner Lachanze (The Color Purple, 2006), Trouble in Mind has a great chance at that final spot for Play Revival (depending on how many nominees we get).

Who are you looking forward to seeing get nominated? Sound off in the comments below and tune in next week for a full run-down of the nominations.

Comments

[Joe G.]

I'm really pulling for Sharon D. Clarke. I thought she was amazing, however, it's easy to see voters overlooking her more internal performance. I thought Cassie Levy was fairly solid too. She could sneak into featured actress.

Mare Winningham should be in contention. She really delivers, and of course, gets one of the more popular Dylan songs, with a really great design that allows her to shine. However, I think being in lead will really hurt her. She's a weird case of (I think) being a featured actress pushed into Lead.

Six is hard. The ladies are all so good. I think if they reward the musical with a nomination/win then they reward the show. But, I if I had to choose one or two to get nominated in lead, I'd probably single out Anna Uzele based on the roles they play in the story, but it's easy to see Adrianna Hicks getting in. She's been a big focus of their publicity campaign.

Surley, Patti is set to get her third featured actress nomination, and likely third Tony. She'll finally tie Glenn if she's nominated and wins this year :P

[thevoid99]

Please, no Diana. I saw a bit of it and... oh fuck... the horror.

[ScottC]

Half the folks I saw Macbeth with *hated* it. That said, yeah, Negga seemed unquestionably best in show and I'm still more than peeved about the Oscars so I'll be hoping for the best for her next week.

[NATHANIEL R]

I'm so sad that I've seen nothing this year other than COMPANY. But the $$$ just hasnt been there. Maybe next season!

[chasm301]

Please, yes Diana. I enjoyed every glorious minute of that mess and if I'm rooting for one pop girlboss musical about tragic women of the British monarchy, it's not gonna be Six. :P

[Brian Wick]

I got the chance to go to New York and was able to see the following eligible shows: Six, Paradise Square, MJ, Company, and Take Me Out.

Thoughts on what I saw

Six- I loved it. I hope the Tony’s present the ladies in this show with a special Tony because I can’t see them singling out any of these women in the Lead category. I feel they are just going to cancel each other out. I’m definitely rooting for nominations in all eligible categories and rooting for it to win Best Score and Best Costumes.

Paradise Square- Reviews for this show were not that kind, but I absolutely adored it. The music is so good especially the 11 o’clock number Let It Burn. Rooting for it to get nominations in Score, Choreography, and Lead Actress.

MJ- This show I wasn’t expecting to love as much as I did. The acting was wonderful. The way the story was told was incredible. The set and costumes were amazing. This show and Paradise Square have the best new choreography on Broadway. Rooting for nominations for the lead actor, choreography, and all design elements.

Company- Probably my favorite show that I saw on Broadway. The direction was impeccable. I’ve always loved Company, but this revival is probably my favorite version. Matt Doyle should walk away with the Tony for Featured Actor in A Musical. Incredible work is done by all and I just want to see so many nominations. I love the set of the show. This show moved me to tears in ways that made me feel so vulnerable. I’m not Patti LuPone’s biggest fan, but her work in this was just incredible. Also, the gender flip makes this show feel more vital than before. Katrina Lenk is such a gifted actress and I am so grateful to have been able to see such a vulnerable performance.

Take Me Out- One of my favorite plays that I have ever seen. Wonderfully staged. Great acting from the whole cast with Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Patrick J Adams as best in show. Very tense and occasionally funny. Would love see it to be nominated for Revival, direction, and multiple acting nominations (specifically for Ferguson).