Best Actress Predictions - First Round
Thursday, August 24, 2023 at 8:00AM by Nathaniel R
Annette Bening as "NYAD" (Netflix, 2023)
If I had any hair, I would be tearing it out every time Best Actress predictions must be made. There are so many ways it could go. It's always fun to fantasize about but also agonizing to worry about. Oscar history is wildly hit and miss with Best Actress lineups. Sometimes it's electric quintets and other times they ignore most of the best work for a set of solid but unthrilling performances.
The contender we're most excited / anxious about is the one and only Annette Bening in Nyad...
Nyad chronicles the triumph of open water swimmer Diana Nyad as she swam 'the Mount Everest of swims', a 110 mile stretch from Cuba to Florida at 60 years of age. Bening is long long overdue for a win having been the presumed runner up for gold twice before. There's a chance, however, that Oscar has just moved on as they sometimes do from "considering" people. She hasn't been nominated in 13 years, not even for her arguable career best work in 20th Century Women (2016). (In the prediction charts we've predicted three nominations for the film: Best Actress, Best Cinematography, and Best Original Score.
Of the films that have been people have already seen there are definitely five leading ladies that have made a consensus impression: Margot Robbie (Barbie), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Natalie Portman (May December). Robbie's Barbie is really an interesting test case here for industry and critics awards. Will people recognize her skill at playing an "idea" as it becomes a "character" or default to honoring more usual acting triumphs and/or histrionics? We'd say "not a chance" at the former -- a tough ask from generally artistically conservative awards season -- except that the film is so massively successful that some usual barriers to honors might fall away.
The only precedent in terms of 'type of performance that's rarely honored but was' that comes to mind is more than a half century ago with Julie Andrews as Mary Poppins. Not a perfect comparison but let's just say it would be an atypical nomination.
Margot Robbie as "BARBIE"
How will any of those five early birds stack up against the performances to come?
Carey Mulligan looks sublime in the trailer to Maestro but let's be honest: Oscar has been resistant to her in the past, passing her over more often than they've honored her.
Fantasia Barrino is a big question mark in The Color Purple since she doesn't have a track record as an actress. Still she could be nominated whether superb or mediocre. We don't know which she'll be or if she'll fall somewhere in between (the trailer is cagey on this question, with teensy tiny snippets rather than "clips"). This is not a criticism of a performance none of us have seen but a reminder that some roles are awards magnetized. Whoopi was Oscar nominated playing Celie and Cynthia won the Tony. Will Fantasia make it three-for-three with awards love?
Can Jessica Lange or Kate Winslet make big Oscar comebacks with Long Day's Journey Into Night and Lee, respectively? Lange is higher on the chart but, in truth, if I had faith that Lee was releasing this year Winslet probably would have made the top five.
Will Vanessa Kirby run circles around her film Napoleon? Even if she does will she be demoted to supporting since she's not the titular character?
There are so many questions.
Oscar Prediction Index
And with the Best Actress chart up saved the best for last) ALL first-round predictions are done. I've even included the Best International Feature Film chart though we don't yet know which countries will submit which films. We're starting to build out the submission pages for individual countries, too, so more of that soon. It's just fun to have charts to make / look at ... even if the AMPTP is still likely to mess up the fall and winter for movie lovers. If they continue to let their greed destroy the industry than the next Oscars will just be a three hour Barbenheimer fest. Which... well, there have definitely been less deserving Oscar winners!
Check out the charts and report back in the comments.
Reader Comments (23)
One thing I learned recently: Though the mainstream media has thrilled to Diana Nyad, she’s a controversial figure in open swimming. Major figures of that world consider her an out-and-out fraud, full stop. It will be interesting to see if the film addresses controversy about Nyad’s “records” and whether that breaks into into the chatter, promotion, etc. Like you can imagine a sudden NY Times op-ed by some Nyad critic that pours cold water on the whole exercise.
Besides that, color me skeptical that a middle-aged lesbian endurance sports movie is going to be the thing that finally wins Annette Bening an Oscar. Stranger things have happened but I’ve never really seen this happening.
To add to the awards love, LaChanze also won the Tony for the original Broadway production of The Color Purple. Fantasia was received rapturously when she replaced her on Broadway (although her attendance was known to be spotty). Fantasia received the Theatre World Award for her performance on stage.
I'm cautiously optimistic on Bening, as I have been before. Especially if Shirley is delayed again (as I suspect it will) and Golda falls short (as I fear it might), then Nyad should have the "veteran biopic" lane all to herself. Interestingly, since the last time she was nominated, there has been a strong movement towards veteran performers in this category (Lawrence, Larson, and Stone notwithstanding), so this status may serve to help rather than hurt her. The bigger problem may be Netflix, as, despite racking up acting nominations over the last 6 years, it has only managed that one win for Dern for Marriage Story. Delays of other possible contenders could also boost Bening's standing, but this remains a real "I'll believe it when I see it" case.
My own predictions,I like your top 5,i've not seen Barbie but Robbie is to me akin to Johnny Depp in Pirates in 2003,they went there and I feel he was 2nd runner up not Murray.
Barrino untried actress doesn't pop in the trailer but Celie is an an awards magnet role,I hope she does something different with it.
Bening way way overdue 2016's snub still stings,this is a triumphing underdog story which is catnip to Oscar voters,I can see a welcome back for her and most likely Jodie too,will both be fab on the campaign trail
Huller they sometimes go for well lauded foreign performances Huppert,Cotillard,Moreno and she's been building momentum for a few years now.
Mulligan should have been nominated last year for She Said,I don't see how this doesn't become the frontrunner.
Robbie will they see past the comedy angle,at least the annus horribilis of 2022 will become a memory for her.
Thoughts on the others
Winslet if the reviews for her are gangbusters at festivals then she's a threat if not 2024's more likely,does seem like they fallen out of love with her.
Portman I see Foster and Bening stealing her and Moore's duet thunder.
Lange may move to 2024 but don't count out a comeback for an actress they adored once a la Spacek or Burstyn in the early 2000's
Spainey the film will be compared too much to Elvis and Coppola has ticked their fancy just once but they like new faces in Best Actress.
Stone It may be more a director's piece but she is always fascinating and has 2 noms 1 win already.
Lee and Taylor both will need lots of those passion votes
Kirby will obviously go supporting from what I saw of her in the trailer,this will be a man's film and she may be reduced to nagging wife lines.
Ronan better luck in 2024 with Blitz.
Mirren has a wif of stinker about it,Mirren has been snubbed just as often as she's been nominated.
King,Adams,Chastain and the rest will have to see how reviews pan out.
I'm with DK on Nyad. Netflix has a really crowded slate this year, and I'm not sure that they'll prioritize that film over things like Maestro or May December, which will generate more attention.
Really rooting for Greta Lee this year! I'm worried it's a bit too understated of a performance and the film may get overlooked by end of year. Hoping she and the film end up on a lot of year end best lists to give them a needed boost.
I really just don't see this Emma Stone performance gaining a nod based on the trailer. Who knows could be totally wrong though.
Are we really so sure Lily Gladstone is going supporting? If not, she def makes the top 5 here.
I know a couple of people who saw Fantasia on Broadway and they said she was amazing. Granted stage is very different than screen, but I think she'll be better than not. She definitely had better screen presence than Jennifer Hudson during their American Idol days so we'll see!
I think folks are overestimating Fantasia and underestimating Greta Lee. Otherwise, solid list.
I do still think there's a chance Margot misses, though. Combo of bias against silly/product placement movie and it not feeling like a stretch for her (unfair criticism, I know).
I sense Lily Gladstone will wind up here.
I have faith in Fantasia. One moment I caught in the trailer made me excited. I think she'll kill it. And since she was up against J Hud for Dreamgirls and lost out, I love this full circle moment for her. She's one of the original American Idols and deserves her time in the sun.
Like everyone else has said, Celie is one of those roles that garners attention no matter what. BUT I'm not sure this movie will be that kind of awards magnet, or if it'll just pick up a few nods and keep it shoving. Who knows.
Long Day's Journey Into Night just seems like it'll be a snooze (I'm judging based off nothing lol), but it would be fun to see a vet like Jessica Lange back in the room.
This is actually a pretty thin year! I don't think Margot Robbie will have a problem getting nominated at all.
Philip H : I disagree. I think this year seems stacked. And I do believe that Gladstone will end up in Lead.
My Top 5 (pre festivals) are as follows : Gladstone, Bening, Huller, Barrino, and Robbie.
So no Julianne Moore anywhere? She’s a definite contender in supporting. She’s hysterical, pathetic and terrifying in equal measure. I would nominate her, Portman and Melton but she’s definitely supporting.
What a career trajectory that would be for Fantasia from American Idol to now.
All on board for Bening - it’s time! But would also love to see Jessica Lange welcomed back to the fold with a nomination.
Bening, Portman, Lange, Fantasia and Robbie - who really put in the hard yards with Barbie and deserves recognition.
Regarding Fantasia B. - She might've won American Idol, but she rubbed people the wrong way by referring to fellow contestant Jennifer Hudson as a 'heifer.'
Time to delete all the Dune predictions...
I'm 97% sure Hüller will be making the lineup, having seen the film. The aspect that holds most foreign actress back, the language/subtitles, will not be a problem for Hüller as her performance is probably 90% English even if the film overall is closer to 50/50.
Also, the film and performance are fantastic. Couple that with Hüller starring in the other critically acclaimed film of the year (The Zone of Interest) I don't see how she misses.
I do see Annette Bening in the tea leaves. I've been predicting her for a while because of my trust in the directors, but the heavy festival presence also seems to show a confidence in the film or at least the performance.
Huh. I don't recall the last time my thoughts were less aligned with your predictions.
Sure, Robbie's performance is atypical awards fare but the combo of money, cultural sensation, and a fair number of films likely dropping out of this year makes me think that along with Huller and probably Gladstone (why not campaign her here?) she's easily among the likeliest nominees. Beyond that, maybe this is wishing more than thinking, but I think people will remember Past Lives and if so Greta Lee will definitely be in the mix. And I don't know which category she'll wind up in, but I think Napoleon may end up more popular than people expect and if so then why not Kirby who is well liked across work in both tv and film and across genres.
I don't know what to expect from Poor Things - seems like Stone will be obviously in or obviously out once people see it. As to Bening, you're far more confident than I am. An older actress in a sports movie doesn't scream Oscar to me, especially since as you note Oscar seems to have cooled on Bening herself.
In my humble opinion, i've never understood the love for Bening, Stone and Robbie in general, so meh to you first three predictions HAHA
Buuuuuut
THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU for Jessica Lange!!! Wish she would have been in the top five - but being on your bubble in the sixth spot is GREAT for me. Love her and love the material - so honestly cannot WAIT to see this one.
Wish Kate was higher, but completely understand how this feels like maybe a 2024 film
Question - Cate Blanchett for The Boy?
Thanks Nat - for the completion of your predictions!!!
Unrelated to Actress, but I think we are all sleeping on All Of Us Strangers. I have a feeling it's going to be something special.
I was originally betting on Lange to win a few months back, but since the movie isn't showing up at any festivals, most believe she won't be releasing this year. It would be amazing to see it happen for Bening, but she seems to have the early frontrunner curse. I think strong word of mouth and a quick purchase/turnaround might mean Oscar #2 for Winslet.
They have never been into sports movies, have they?
Like Tony L, I hsve never been a Bening and Stone fan.
Robbie is getting in, but not for the win.
I am really curios about Phoebe Dynevor in Fair Play. I think Phoebe will surprise and get those new breakout star attention. The film sounds delicious to me
Im on the Huller band wagon. She is in two highly acclaimed movies this year.
Ronan looks strong in the Foe trailer.
Cate Blanchett got good reviews for The Boy. I dont think she is a serious contender this year
Greta Lee for the nomination.
Nathaniel: thanks for your hard work :)
I’m skeptical about Carey Mulligan. We’ve already had the “ Bradley Cooper plays a Jewish man by putting on a false nose” furor.
Now we have the “Carey Mulligan plays a Latina” question. One writer did say that they are all for “the best person for the job” argument, but is Mulligan better than any Latina actress alive? If Latina actresses get turned down for other roles and can’t even compete for Latina roles, well....gee.
It really makes me think that on movies where the director is also the lead actor, that there are too many people saying “yes” and not enough people saying “wait a minute, think this through”.
I’m also hesitant about Fantasia Barrino. I’m wasn’t familiar with her, except for reading how great she is in her stage roles. But reading a little more, whoa! Real foot-in-the-mouth syndrome here. I’m wondering how that’s going to play out.
And I’m a definite “no” on Emma Stone. When you look back on her Oscar for “La La Land”, you think one Oscar for an only adequate performance is enough.
But there are tons of great actresses in the running this year!
Margot Robbie is the reason that billion dollar movie worked.
You keep thinking about Greta Lee long after her movie is over.
Regina King is playing Shirley Chisholm.
Amy Adams is directed by Marielle Heller.
Sandra Huller gets an audience friendly showcase.
Michelle Williams and director Kelly Reichardt have made another beautifully naturalistic under-valued movie.
Helen Mirren gets a juicy lead.
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