Who Will Be The Snub or Surprise at Oscars?

By: Christopher James

Can the entire trio of Killers of the Flower Moon get nominated after Leo's SAG snub?

Now that the SAG Awards have announced their nomination, we have a very clear picture of where the Oscar acting races are heading into Oscar voting. Every year features its snubs and surprises. The one thing you can rely on the Oscars for are some curveballs. However, there are ways we can systematically predict the lineup using the numbers of the past to inform the future.

Let’s apply some statistics to figure out the most likely nominees...

How Many Oscar Snubs and Surprises Will There Be This Year?

Sixteen actors have earned nominations from all three major precursors - Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards. This has been the highest it has been since 2018 and is only lower than 2013 and 2014. In all three of those years, there were at least two nominees who were Oscar snubbed after receiving all major precursor nominations. In 2013, there were three snubs of that magnitude (Daniel Brühl - Rush, Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks, Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips). Additionally, those years all featured one surprise nomination who was snubbed by all major voting bodies.

Typically, performing a hat trick of nominations at these shows gives you a 91% chance at an Oscar nomination, which would mean 15 of the 16 would earn nominations. Yet, analyzing the past 21 years, one sees that normally 66% of the field is filled with nominees who have managed this feat. Plus, 6% of nominees from the past 20 years came without any precursor support.

Taking these stats into consideration, it appears there will be 14 nominees with three precursors, 4 nominees with 2 precursors, 1 nominee with 1 precursor and 1 surprise nominee that has not shown up at these awards shows. That means there will be 2 major snubs this year.

Who Will Be The Biggest Snubs of the Awards Season?

First, let’s take a look at the actors and actresses that have received all three precursor nominations:

• Best Actress

  • Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

  • Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

  • Margot Robbie (Barbie)

  • Emma Stone (Poor Things)

• Best Actor

  • Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

  • Colman Domingo (Rustin)

  • Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

  • Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

  • Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

• Best Supporting Actress

  • Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)

  • Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

  • Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

  • Jodie Foster (Nyad)

• Best Supporting Actor

  • Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

  • Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

  • Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

The most likely recipient of an Oscar snub is a performer from a “This Had Oscar Buzz” movie. This means, the actor was likely the main push for their film and, without their nomination, the movie got no other nominations. Only 23% of the time does a performer from a Best Picture nominee end up a snub.

This means the most vulnerable actors from the above bunch are Colman Domingo (Rustin), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) and Jodie Foster (Nyad). Brooks is a frontrunner in the category and The Color Purple will likely show up a few other places at the Oscars, especially after the SAG Ensemble nomination. This makes me believe Domingo and Foster will each be the recipient of snubs this year.

In particular, the leading acting categories are most likely to see these surprise snubs. This speaks once again to Colman Domingo being one of the surprise snubs this year. If Jodie Foster isn’t the second and it is coming from a lead acting category, either Carey Mulligan or Jeffrey Wright could still be vulnerable, if their movie were to underperform overall. Between the two, Mulligan feels a more likely snub since American Fiction is surging post-SAG nominations.

Who Will Be The Biggest Surprise on Oscar Nomination Morning?

The most likely reason for someone to show up unexpectedly at the Oscars is because of coattails from a movie that is popular and well-watched during voting. Nearly half the time that comes from a Best Picture nominee, but 19% of the time it also comes from coattails from a lead performance that is locked up in their category. Let’s take a look at the field, who are some people that fit into either of these categories.

• Coattails from Best Picture

  • Matt Damon - Oppenheimer

  • Florence Pugh - Oppenheimer

  • Tantoo Cardinal - Killers of the Flower Moon

  • Cara Jade Myers - Killers of the Flower Moon

  • Brendan Fraser - Killers of the Flower Moon

  • Jesse Plemons - Killers of the Flower Moon

  • Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

  • Ramy Youssef - Poor Things

  • Erika Alexander - American Fiction

  • Issa Rae - American Fiction

  • Teo Yoo - Past Lives

  • John Magaro - Past Lives

  • Christian Friedel - The Zone of Interest

  • Sandra Hüller - The Zone of Interest

• Coattails from Lead Performer

  • N/A

There is always the chance that a previous nominee who’s on a hot streak can find their way into the race. In theory, this could apply to Helen Mirren (Golda), Julia Roberts (Leave the World Behind), Jessica Chastain (Memory), Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon), Adam Driver (Ferrari), Jamie Foxx (The Burial), Anne Hathaway (Eileen) or Anthony Hopkins (Freud’s Last Session). Yet, all of those are favorites of the previous organizations and would likely have been nominated if they had any heat. There’s some heat for Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) or Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple). However, they aren’t Oscar perennials enough for this to apply. The two most recent times have been for very lauded international performances from minted Oscar winners (who happen to be married to each other) - Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Javier Bardem (Biutiful). The only person that fits this description is Juliette Binoche for The Taste of Things. The film has picked up steam in recent weeks since the film made the international shortlist and Binoche is a previous winner, famously beating Lauren Bacall in 1996.

Of course, there’s always Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) or Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie). Any actor could pop up from any movie, even if it's not factoring in elsewhere. However, who can forget the groundswell of late support for Riseborough last year (“a small movie with a big heart”). Frances Fisher has just thrown her support behind Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor for Origin, so she could surprise at the last minute, but the minute just might be too late on this one.

While snubs are most likely to happen in lead categories, these surprises are most likely to happen in the supporting categories. This also aligns with the above learning that coattails are the most likely reason an actor can sneak in without precursor support.

Taking the major two data points/assumptions (that the surprise will be in supporting and will be a coattails nomination from a Best Picture nominee), the most likely surprise nominees are Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) or Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest). We’ll talk more about Hüller’s chances for Anatomy of a Fall shortly. However, the excitement around these two very different performances could lead her to two nominations this year. It also satisfies the interest in international performances that has increased over the past few years and has led to surprise nominations for Marina de Tavira, among others.

Which Other Actors Will Fill Out The Other Spots?

So here is where we stand after the previous two sections:

Best Actress

• Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

• Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

• Emma Stone (Poor Things)

• Margot Robbie (Barbie)

• 5

Best Actor

• Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

• Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

• Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

• Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

• 5

Best Supporting Actress

• Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)

• Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

• Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)

• Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

• 5

Best Supporting Actor

• Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

• Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

• Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

• 4

• 5

This leaves five slots to fill. Based on the first chart, it appears that four of those slots will be from performers that have two of the three precursor nominations and the fifth will come from someone with only one precursor nomination.

The most common path to an Oscar nomination with 2 precursors is to have SAG and Critics Choice nominations, which 27 people have done before and have had a 67.5% success rate. Similarly, having only a SAG nomination has the highest success rate of all the paths for someone with 1 precursor (25%). However, it is most common to go from a Critics Choice nomination to an Oscar.

Let’s take a look at who else is vying for these last spots.

• 2 Nominations (ranked by % chance)

  • Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) - SAG, CC

  • Annette Bening (Nyad) - SAG, GG D

  • Julianne Moore (May December) - GG, CC

  • Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things) - GG, CC

  • Charles Melton (May December) - GG, CC

  • Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) - SAG, GG

  • Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) - GG D, CC

  • Greta Lee (Past Lives) - GG D, CC

  • Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) - GG D, CC

• 1 Nomination (ranked by % chance)

  • Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) - SAG

  • Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) - GG

  • America Ferrera (Barbie) - GG

  • Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla) - GG D

  • Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) - GG D

  • Barry Keoghan (Saltburn) - GG D

  • Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) - GG C

  • Jennifer Lawrence (No Hard Feelings) - GG C

  • Natalie Portman (May December) - GG C

  • Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves) - GG C

  • Timothee Chalamet (Wonka) - GG C

  • Matt Damon (Air) - GG C

  • Joaquin Phoenix (Beau is Afraid) - GG C

  • Nicholas Cage (Dream Scenario) - GG C

Since Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) has the most frequently occuring path to a nomination that also has the highest success rate, let’s consider him in. This means we are looking for 1 more nominee for each category.

Among the other actors in the 2 nominee camp, Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) feels the most safe. The SAGs often ignore more international performances and she’s one of the major stories of the awards season. If anything, this snub coupled with Anatomy of a Fall’s strong Golden Globes showing should galvanize voters for Hüller. This fills up Best Actress, knocking out Annette Bening (who they likely will snub until they give her an overdue win) and Greta Lee (who seems closer towards a nomination than Bening).

The remaining two spots will come from either a May December duo (Julianne Moore, Charles Melton), Poor Things duo (Willem Dafoe, Mark Ruffalo) or Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon). DiCaprio is very vulnerable, but if we are predicting Domingo to be a surprise miss, then the most likely person to replace him is Leonardo DiCaprio. If anything, May December is faltering at the exact wrong moment leading up to nominations. This also coincides with Poor Things only growing in popularity. The final slot in Supporting Actor will go to either Melton, Dafoe or Ruffalo. Though my heart lies with Melton, who gives one of my favorite performances of the year, my head is putting the safe money on Willem Dafoe, an Oscar favorite.

So that leaves Supporting Actress for the final slot and three women who could fill that position - Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) and America Ferrera (Barbie). The only real Best Picture possibility is Barbie, so America Ferrera is very much in the race. However, I’m predicting Penelope Cruz after her surprise SAG nomination. Academy voters love her and the role is a big, scenery chewing showcase. This is a great example of looking at “Most” acting, rather than “Best.”

What’s My Predicted Lineup?

Best Actress

• Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

• Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

• Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

• Emma Stone (Poor Things)

• Margot Robbie (Barbie)

Best Actor

• Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

• Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)

• Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

• Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

• Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Best Supporting Actress

• Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)

• Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

• Penelope Cruz (Ferrari)

• Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)

• Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Best Supporting Actor

• Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)

• Willem Dafoe (Poor Things)

• Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

• Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

• Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

Who do you think will be snubbed at the Oscars? Are there any surprise nominees you are predicting or rooting for?

Comments

[charlea]

I’m predicting a Barbie snobbery (which I share) and that Margot & Ryan will both miss.

I’ve given up on the industry waking up to how mediocre Da’Vine is in her film, but I will not give up hope that they will do the same with Emily Blunt. To call that one of the 5 greatest acting performances by supporting actresses of the entire year is insulting. I’m hope-dicting that snub will happen in favor of performances people are passionate about, like Penelope Cruz and Julianne Moore, both of whom should absolutely be locks.

I’d be over the moon for a bunch of nominations for May December in general. Will the Netflix machine pull through?

[DAVID S]

CAREY MULLIGAN - MAESTRO

Brady Cooper is not even the frontrunner in Best Actor. Plus she does nothing special to warrant a nomination for this.

[kidflash212]

More of a hope than a prediction but I’m calling a Domingo and DeNiro snub replaced by surprise nominations for Scott and Mescal in All Us Strangers.

[NATHANIEL R]

these statistics are fascinating. and lead me to want to take the chance on predicting America Ferrara.

though i object to "Most" vs "Best" to describe Penelope Cruz as she's just so exciting in that movie. she just keeps on wowing.

[Fabio Dantas Flappers]

SURPRISES I WISH:

Chastain and Sargaard, "Memory"
Bell, Mescal, Foy, "All of Us Strangers"
Of course, at this point, Bening, Foster, Moore and Cruz aren't "surprises".
Sessa, "The Holdovers", could be a nice surprise.
Also for Keoghan, Pike and Elordi for "Saltburn"

SNUBS:
Gerwig, Robbie, "Barbie" in all categories, except Gosling and the song "I'm Just Ken"
Ruffalo, "Poor Things"
If these people isn' getting nominated, I'd be very happy. Because they don't deserve to be nominated.

PS: Leo, "KOTFM" and Domigo, "Rustin" are clearly being snubbed.

[Cláudio Alves]

I feel that, of the ones to get in everywhere, De Niro will be snubbed. As for surprise coattail nominations, I'm feeling Sessa.

The depths of my madness have me rooting against some performances I like so I get to cover them in Almost There. It's about time I bring that series back and I'd just love to dig into some amazing work like Cruz in FERRARI. I'm with you, Nathaniel, she's superb in it.

[jules]

I have felt for awhile that Mulligan will not show up on Oscar morning. The character just doesn’t have lead character energy and is poorly served by the screenplay, and both Bening and Huller feel as though they could join Gladstone, Stone, and Robbie.

With such a volatile supporting actress race, I also think Ferrera could get a coattail nomination.

[DK]

My gut tells me Best Supporting Actress is going to be Randolph, Brooks, Blunt, Pike and Ferrera.

I don’t know how you see Saltburn (as everyone has in the last two weeks) and fail to nominate Pike. It just feels like an intuitive performance to put on your ballot in January 2024. It's not one you need to seek out or remember or convince yourself to love.

I suspect Ferrera will benefit from all the campaigning…to her credit, she’s stubbornly remained in the conversation, I think that could pay off for her.

[Wae Mest]

Patti LuPone it is, bitches!

[bvrs90]

I don't agree at all with those saying Mulligan won't show up. She's in an Oscar-bait movie, generously featured, and *SPOILER* her character gets cancer so she has a lot of Oscar-clip-friendly scenes in the end *SPOILER END.*

[eurocheese]

Absolutely love this breakdown. So curious to see how it matches up on Oscar nomination morning, but I hope we can do this rundown in future years as well.

[Joe G.]

I get why it makes sense, statistically, for Sandra Huller to get a supporting slot. However, the fact that she's an international performer I think will hurt her from getting two. You really have to be a beloved movie start to get two nominations in one year. I think she's in for Anatomy, but not for the Zone of Interest. That film feels like a class Picture, Director, and Screenplay.

With the Color Purple missing PGA, I do think that Brooks may be out. Her film is flatlining at the wrong time, even with SAG support. I'm not sure she's high profile enough to be the lone acting nominee from her film.

I think this may be a case where Jodie Foster makes it in. Like Kathy Bates, she seems strong enough to get a lone nomination. I think she'll join Da'vine Joy Randolph, Emily Blunt, Penelope Cruz, and America Ferrera. I might be very wrong, but Foster feels strong to me and the fact that she's really out there again will help her.

Colman Domingo feels like he'll make it in. It reminds me of Cynthia Erivo, who I thought would be left out for Lupita on nomination morning. Domingo is in the right biopic and at a moment in his career where people are really excited to award him.

[Mr Ripley79]

I love it when someone goes all in with graphs charts and list so thankyou.

I have a favourite in easch category

Actor Cooper don't want him to miss for Di Caprio or Domingo

Actress Taylor though she has zero chance so Mulligan hopefully not for Robbie or Bening

S Actor Melton looks like he's a critics pick who gets snubbed a la Bill Murray in Rushmore

S Actress Foster is the most likely along with Cruz hopefully not for Brookes or Ferrara but some things give me hope for her,the 2020 snub,the welcome back goodwill factor she and Annette are selling the hell out of this film and people really respong to Jodie in it plus she's on TV right now so she'll be fresh in voters minds,fingers crossed.

Actress surprise Portman

Actor surprise Rogowski

S Actress surprise Huller

S Actor surprise Damon

[Mr Ripley79]

The one person who gets no SAG GG Critics Choice I think will be Dominic Sessa,it helps to be a Lead in Supporting..

[whunk (he/him)]

Said this the other day, but I'd be shocked if Mulligan missed and I still think Cooper has a great shot at winning Best Actor. That movie is right up the older Academy members' wazoos, and I think the whole nose prosthetic thing got overplayed on social media. I'm Jewish myself and see nothing wrong with this movie trying to make him look more like Leonard Bernstein.

I think Robbie may be on shakier ground, though I think the Academy likes her in general so she should get in. It does seem like there'll be one mini-surprise like a Scott or Bening.

[Stephen C]

My big no guts no glory prediction is that Lily Gladstone gets nominated in supporting actress. If Randolph is supporting so is Gladstone, the third most significant role in a trio of leadish roles where she disappears for large swaths of the plot.

[Cláudio Alves]

Stephen C -- I understand, from my post, that you don't like Gladstone's performance and the way Scorsese wrote and directed KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON. However, even on the raw metric of screen time - which is an imperfect way of deciding if someone is lead or supporting - Gladstone and Randolph aren't the same. At least, in my view.

From ScreenTime Central:

Da'Vine Joy Randolph - 25:29 / 19.10%
Dominic Sessa - 1:05:04 / 48.77%
Paul Giamatti - 1:13:47 / 55.30%

VS

Robert De Niro - 47:38 / 23.12%
Lily Gladstone - 56:13 / 27.29%
Leonardo DiCaprio - 1:49:59 / 53.38%

[Stephen C]

Cláudio — No, I did like Gladstone’s performance, for many of the reasons you highlighted in your great and extensive piece, but you are right that I had major issues with the script and direction in regards to her character. As for the screen time debate, I don’t think 27 percent is that far off 19 percent. And Robert DeNiro’s 47 minutes of screen time is spent in a much more active role than Gladstone’s, IMO.

[Juan Carlos Ojano]

@ Stephen C:

I'm following your conversation with Cláudio and I'm struggling to keep track.

When you said "If Randolph is supporting so is Gladstone, the third most significant role in a trio of leadish roles where she disappears for large swaths of the plot." - assuming you were pertaining to screentime - Cláudio provided you with hard data disproving your assertion that that both Randolph and Gladstone are the same as "third most significant role".

Also, if you take a look at ScreenTime Central's work, it is only in the third quarter of the film where DeNiro had more screentime than Gladstone. Even DeNiro disappears for "large swaths of the plot".

Then you replied with saying that "Robert DeNiro’s 47 minutes of screen time is spent in a much more active role than Gladstone’s."

Hmmm, so I would like to clarify, if you may:
- Are you saying that Gladstone is supporting because she is "passive" as she is at the receivnig end of the crimes?
- Are you implying that both DiCaprio and DeNiro are leads because they are "active" (and in turn, by active, you mean they are the ones committing the crimes?
- Is this your consistent metric in categorizing lead and supporting, by how you perceive them as either active (lead) or passive (supporting)?

I'm genuinely curious because I'm working on a piece on three-lead films and the points you are raising with regards to your rationale are quite interesting.

[Stephen C]

Juan Carlos — I was merely making a silly prediction here in a post about predictions that I think Lily Gladstone might make into the supporting actress race. I also said it was no guts no glory, a fun tradition in the Oscar predicting world making a bold claim that is unlikely to actually happen.

Personally speaking, I think all three central actors in both THE HOLDOVERS and KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON are lead-ish, as I stated. Randolph is obviously the most fitting in the supporting category of the six of them, and DiCaprio the most fitting of a true lead. And I don’t think screen time measures are a scientific assessment of someone’s placement, categorization and significance within a film.

To answer your questions:
1. No I am not saying her character is passive because she is a victim of crimes, nor did I ever use the word passive. She is not as active as the other two characters because she barely has lines in the back half of the movie, spends much of it literally in bed unconscious, and is not present for any of the major plot line that dominates the last hour (the FBI investigation/interrogations).
2. DiCaprio and DeNiro’s characters are not only the drivers of the entire plot of the movie, but we also experience the movie mostly through Ernest’s perspective. The emotional beats all come from him, or from him witnessing Mollie’s emotions. The climax of the movie depends on Ernest having to decide whether to testify, and Hale’s interventions to try to make sure he does not. The combination of answers 1 and 2 are why I think DiCaprio and DeNiro are more active presences in KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON. Not their general role as criminals.
3. No, and I do not watch or experience movies with lead/supporting categorization in mind.

[Juan Carlos Ojano]

@ Stephen C: Thank you for your answers. Much appreciated.

[Peggy Sue]

For the last time, Gladstone is not supporting, she's just underwritten.

[Michael R]

Dear British Voting Bloc:

Please put Andrew Scott and Claire Foy in the #1 slot on your nominating ballots this weekend, for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress respectively.

Thank you,
Frances Fisher

[Angelo]

Agreed with Peggy Sue. Gladstone is winning this, and ... eh. She's good in it, but it's definitely an underwritten part and I wasn't really bowled over by her. I thought Emma Stone was so surprising and inventive in Poor Things. She would be my choice.

I'd love to see Greta Lee sneak in for Past Lives, as it's one of my favorites films of the year and she was quite good in it.

[Peter]

Great analysis but I really have a hard time imagining an actress as little-known as Sandra Hüller getting double nominated for two foreign films (even if they both get best picture noms). I am curious in modern times who the most obscure actor or actress to get a double nom has been? The only ones coming to mind are Julianne Moore, Emma Thompson, Jaime Foxx, ScarJo off the top of my head.

[Jordan Jay]

Yes i am Agreed with Peggy Sue. Gladstone is winning this, and ... eh. She's good in it, but it's definitely an underwritten part and I wasn't really bowled over by her, also if you wants to edit video with Capcut
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