April Foolish Predictions Complete: Actress & Picture

So my "April Foolish" Oscar Predictions are now complete. I rejiggered two tech predictions once I finally decided on my ten Best Pictures but honestly, any combo of the top 20 listed seems just as plausible as any other so long as the obvious get, War Horse, is there. (It's practically as obvious as The King's Speech was a year out.) We won't know until January how well I did but it's exciting this far out when anything seems possible yes?

BEST PICTURE
I didn't expect to get so fully behind Super 8 but sometimes your own predictions surprise you once you have to work every category out. My wishful thinking pick is David Cronenberg's psychoanalytic period drama A Dangerous Method which is a big old question mark for a number of reasons. But my hunch is that Viggo Mortensen, Michael Fassbender and Keira Knightley will all bring it which will heat up the material which is already sexual conceptually speaking since it's about Freud and Jung. But Cronenberg has never been to the Academy's liking so I'm probably wrong. My wildcard guess -- as in something that's not an obvious contender -- is Oren Moverman's Rampart, a police corruption drama. This film will have the same challenge as My Week With Marilyn in that it will only win real Oscar traction if it feels much larger or more mythic than a telefilm on the same material since both cover topics that have been dramatized on television many times: cop dramas and Marilyn Monroe respectively. My guess for Smallest Nomination Tally But still Best Pic competitor is We Bought a Zoo (just a hunch). My guess for Film With Most Noms That Doesn't Get Nominated For Best Picture (whew) which was Alice in Wonderland last year and Nine the year before (i think?)  is The Adventures of TinTin: The Secret of the Unicorn but if I'm wrong on that, I feel certain it'll be Hugo Cabret.

QUESTIONS FOR YOU:
Which film am I greatly overestimating?
Which movie am I greatly underestimating?
Where am I Goldilocks "just right"?
I'll admit I had NO idea what to make of Moneyball. You?

BEST ACTRESS
Elizabeth Olsen and Felicity Jones were the twin Sundance bids for this category in January and we know how last year and the year before (Bening & Lawrence, Mulligan & Sidibe) turned out: all were nominated. But in a fit of bravery, I'm not predicting either of them.

I'm going with a mostly Previous Nominees lineup. How do you deny Michelle Williams, Glenn Close or Keira Knightley for example this far ahead with juicy roles? As for never-nominated people, I'm totally curious to see what happens with Charlotte Rampling's film The Eye of the Storm.

ACTRESSY QUESTIONS FOR YOU:
Anyone think they'll pass on Meryl Streep this year? (I perversely wanted to predict it.)
Which actress am I underestimating?
Could you see Williams winning for Marilyn?

Note to New Readers
The navigation bar up-top has pull down menus for each Oscar charts or you can click on the Prediction Index and investigate from there. Join in the conversation!

Calling the Splits

Serious Film's Michael C. here to ask an inconvenient question. As predictions are being finalized around the web it becomes clear that a large bloc, if not a majority, of pundits are predicting a picture/director split with The King’s Speech taking picture but David Fincher claiming the director trophy. 

No doubt there is some wishful thinking at play by those still stinging from The Social Network’s flame out at the guilds awards. “Okay, maybe those Philistine voters will deny Social Network the big prize but how could they bypass an established master like Fincher in favor of Tom What’s-His-Name?”

The King Speaks. (The king being Fincher. His movies do rule.

I don’t mean to throw cold water on a plausible scenario that I would much prefer to a Speech sweep, but the burning question is this: When has a picture/director split ever been predicted? The answer: No time I’m aware of.

Here are the 6 times in the last 30 years picture director split along with the expected winners going into the ceremony:

2005 - Crash/Ang Lee
Brokeback Mountain was widely favored to win both prizes. There was, to be fair, an inkling of a Crash win here and there, but the vast majority called it for Brokeback early on.

2002 - Chicago/Polanski
The conventional wisdom that the only thing preventing a Chicago sweep would be the urge to give Scorsese an overdue win for Gangs of New York. Instead we got a Polanski win predicted by exactly nobody.

2000 - Gladiator /Soderbergh
Pundits thought they saw a spilt coming this year as most predicted DGA winner Ang Lee to repeat at the Oscars but popular favorite Gladiator to take top honors. They were half right. Traffic’s Soderbergh blindsided Lee. 

1998 - Shakespeare in Love/ Spielberg
Do we need to go over this one again? Private Ryan was thought to be a lock for both prizes.

1989 – Driving Miss Daisy /Oliver Stone – The smart money was on Born on the Fourth of July to take Picture along with director. Miss Daisy pulled an upset.

1981 - Chariots of Fire/Beatty
If anyone was going to upset the epic Reds in the top category it was assumed to be box office hit On Golden Pond, not tiny, foreign Chariots of Fire.

And here are two more widely predicted splits that never happened:

2006 - Little Miss Sunshine or Babel /Scorsese
Many imagined that voters would be satisfied looking elsewhere for picture after finally giving Scorsese his due. Nope. They genuinely loved The Departed.

1995 - Apollo 13/Gibson
The prevailing mood was that DGA winner Apollo 13 would take picture and, since Howard missed a director nomination, the acting branch would carry Gibson to a directing trophy. Braveheart took them both.

Fincher supporters can take solace in the fact that splits appear to favor big name auteurs in the directing category, or that we're due for a split since they seem to occur about every five years. Other than that, history suggests either the most obvious of outcomes or a wild card that nobody sees coming.  

My knowledge of what was predicted gets hazy before the 80's. Is there some precedent for a Speech/Fincher split I'm missing? Let me know in the comments.

Randomness: Xavier, Fassy, Pedro, Hathaway and "Best" Directors

My New Plaid Pants reminds us that Michael Fassbender and Steve McQueen are reuniting (YES) post Hunger for a movie called Shame, which is not a remake of the Ingmar Bergman flick but a contemporary drama about sex addiction. Carey Mulligan, who looks nothing like Fassy, is playing his sister. Filming now!

It just occurred to me that I've been calling The King's Speech "Royalty Porn" for months now. It has a whole new meaning now.

In Contention does some investigative journalism about that gay porn / King's Speech controversy we were just discussing last night. As for Guy's note that the porn was shot before production on The King's Speech began I have no idea what to think. I can only assume that the wall treatments discussed in the film experience interview were done to emphasize preexisting conditions -- Stewart didn't claim she made up the look, only that she was recreating it and layering it (perhaps to make it read better on film?). Not to get all serious about a very funny news story, but I do hope this doesn't overshadow Stewart's accomplishments. I mean, Christ, Topsy-Turvy. You know?

Less smutty links!
The Movies Were Wrong About Everything TRILOGY METER.
In Contention Kris Tapley's annual good (cinematography) read: top ten shots of the year. Love the inclusion of a sweet moment from Cairo Time as it's quite unexpected.
The House Next Door on writer/director/actor/wunderkind Xavier Dolan (Heartbeats, I Killed My Mother)
i09 interesting interview with Andrew Chambliss, a sci-fi television writer on what that particular grind is like.
The Wrap Costume Design Guild winners: The King's Speech (period), Black Swan (contemporary) and Alice in Wonderland (fantasy)
The AV Club ponders the age-old question: Can Natalie Portman act? I wish Nick's piece on Portman were done to be in conversation with this one.
OMGBLOG Natalie Portman cries a lot, a supercut.

Here's the latest Oscar Host in Training Videos. These are SO fun. This one features Anne Hathaway vs. the teleprompter.

Finally, EW releases a "25 Greatest Working Directors" list. To save you all the trouble of viewing 25 pages. The list goes like so:

1. David Fincher
2. Christopher Nolan
3. Steven Spielberg
4. Martin Scorsese
5. Darren Aronofsky
6. Joel & Ethan Coen
7. Quentin Tarantino
8. Terrence Malick
9. Clint Eastwood
10. Pedro Almodóvar
11. Paul Thomas Anderson
12. Guillermo Del Toro
13. Roman Polanski
14. Danny Boyle
15. Kathryn Bigelow
16. David O. Russell
17. David Lynch
18. James Cameron
19. Peter Jackson
20. Edgar Wright
21. Spike Lee
22. J.J. Abrams
23. Brad Bird
24. Mike Leigh
25. Wes Anderson

It's a curious lineup for sure. And it's absolutely bizarre to see Almodóvar below 9 other people but whatevs. He makes films that require US list-makers to read (GASP). Most of the obvious casualties (Weerathesakul, Haneke, Assayas, Audiard, Desplechin, Denis, etcetera) are wildly acclaimed filmmakers working outside the English language so it's kind of a miracle to see Pedro up so high even though he should be higher. Despite its curious choices, it's also just as expected since you can always tell when a list was made based on what's on it. And you can tell that this list was made within the past 5 or so months since 4 of the 5 current Best Director nominees and heat from the Oscars last year is also accounted for. I'm still chuckling about everyone suddenly claiming they've been a fan all along of Kathryn Bigelow last year. (I have been which is why I know people are lying through their teeth about their devotion! It was a lonely fandom.)

P.S. [UPDATED] Speaking of Almodovar though... People are getting excited for this new reportedly horrific film The Skin That I Inhabit which released this curiousity-inducing original teaser poster to the left and now this fan art has popped up which I'm sure it well intentioned (as fan art always is) but it makes the movie look a bit like a Saw knockoff.

And if there's one thing one could never say about Almodóvar, it's that he's not imitative. People steal from him. Not the other way around ;) [Thanks to Iggy for sharing the link]

P.P.S. Pajiba offers a compare and contrast list to EW's list 25 Most Profitable Directors and Awards Daily responds with a 50 They Forgot list.

Best Picture & Best Director. Final Notes

David FincherWith the Oscars just nine days away it's time to finalize the Oscar pages. I started with Best Picture and Best Director. I'm betting on a split with David Fincher taking the gold for The Social Network but The King's Speech taking Best Picture. Splits are not common as you know, but the BAFTA reaction could be telling. And could The Social Network really have burned through ALL of its awards pull before Oscar night? It's got to win something beyond Screenplay right?

The Best Picture page also has updated box office results and extremely useless trivia like number of animals abused, limbs lost, batshit crazy mothers and sex scenes and more that can be found in the ten-wide Best Picture field.

On the director's page I've theorized about what got Tom Hooper, Darren Aronofsky, David O. Russell and Joel and Ethan Coen nominated (for entertainment purposes only... though I'd love to hear if I missed any reasons for the nods). Useless trivia: If you fused all of the directors together statistically you've got a 48 year old white American guy with 7 fairly cerebral films under his belt enjoying only his second adventure at the Oscars.

Get Back to Work!

Confession: Every time I see a picture of a director Baz Lurhmann or Quentin Tarantino at a party I want to scream "Get back to work, you!" If I were the boss of great directors they'd have terrible vacation time eligibility benefits. I'd maybe give them two weeks off a year. Maybe. I'd work the great ones 'round the clock. They'd surely unionize.

Baz Luhrmann, Tom Hooper, Quentin Tarantino

Here Baz and QT party post-SAG Awards with man o' Hollywood's hour Tom Hooper (The King's Speech). Hooper has won more Director's Guild competitions than either of them.