Oscar Predix: Best Actor and Leonardo DiCaprio

It's that foolish time of year - April Foolish to be precise. I try and suss out what's going to happen nearly a whole year from now without having seen any of the films. I am actually better than most at the year-in-advance thing... it's only later when my skills and prediction ratios put me a bit further back in the Best Prognosticators pack. Must be letting my familiarity with the films cloud the actual buzz! (They do always say that people who don't follow the race closely win Oscar pools just by casually parroting the buzz.)

The big year in advance question that people are already talking about of course is whether Leonardo DiCaprio can finally win for J. Edgar (if the film is released this year as I firmly expect it will be.)

THE PREDICTION CHART

Whether or not Leo is truly overdue is another matter. I was a very early disciple (1993, baby) but I have been losing interest over the years. I may be the only one who thinks that he's actually kind of bad in Inception. That performance just gets clunkier on repeated views, and he's not nearly as successful at making the exposition sound natural and conversational as the other actors are. But then again. That may just be the problem of "The Dead Wives Club," previously discussed. When actors get in role-ruts, it sometimes dulls the range of their imagination.

Still and all, biopics may suit him. (And they definitely suit Oscar.) He was very good in The Aviator (2004) but here's the other odd thing about his "overdue" status. It comes more from the fact that he's his generation's biggest star than from "should've won!" issues. I personally don't think he's ever come close to winning (which is usually when overdue status sets in). In 1993 the race was between Fiennes & Jones, in 2004 there was no race at all with Jamie Foxx sweeping in one of those Helen Mirren/Colin Firth style inevitabilities. 2006 was a "just happy to be nominated" situation and for the wrong film to boot.

Though he has to be considered a contender for a multiplicity of reasons, the year has barely begun. Other major stars that may have roles tailor-made for their persona or skill set include George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Matt Damon, Mel Gibson, Ryan Gosling and there's always the reliably strong actors like Gary Oldman, Ralph Fiennes, Woody Harrelson or the rising stars like Michael Fassbender who already seems to be staking claim on 2011 and His.

I have lots more to say about the actors but I'll save some of it for the supporting actor post.

What do you make of The Film Experience chart or Leo's "winning" chances?

Podcast: Jane Eyre

New season of the podcast starts now. Though Oscar season is still many months away the Big O (and I don't mean Oprah) is not required for hearty movie conversations. Even if he likes to muscle his golden way in from time to time. In this week's episode Nick and Katey and I have gathered to talk about the dreaminess of Michael Fassbender, the skill of Mia Wasikowska, the promise of Cary Fukunaga and drafty manor houses on the moors filled with dark secrets.

For those who haven't yet read the book or seen the movie we pull back from the spoilers so fear not. But go see the movie! All three of us were fans of this particular adaptation. Also discussed, however briefly: Rango, Certified Copy and Andrea Arnold's forthcoming adaptation of Wuthering Heights. It's a big year for those Brontë girls.

Podcast: Jane Eyre

Link Roundup (and Lint Roundup From Navel Gazing.)

Towleroad. Jodie Foster has limits. Michael Fassbender doesn't. Bradley Cooper stars in Limitless.
I Need My Fix clips and poster for Jodie Foster / Mel Gibson film The Beaver.

Also do you like this Midnight in Paris Vincent Van Gogh lift painting? I can't type Vincent Van Gogh in connection with a Woody Allen movie without thinking of Manhattan's "Hall of the Overrated"

Yahoo Answers "Who danced worse? Elaine on Seinfeld or Michelle Pfeiffer in Scarface?" LOL
Us Weekly Lea Michele kissing on Ashton Kutcher in New Year's Eve.
The News Gazette has very uplifting info about the Ebert Fest Lineup. I don't really worship him in the way most movie-obsessives do but Roger Ebert is really a very cool person

Finally,  E! Online posted a rather drooling "ohmygoditshappened!" in response to the filming of the Armie Hammer / Leonardo DiCaprio smooch in J. Edgar. This is worth reading just for the annoying reminder (in the comments) that homophobia is still alive and well and still refuses to call itself "homophobia". It's just like all those stupid racists who always preface racist comments with "I'm not racist" People are so annoying! Ah well. Best to just keep on celebrating cool people instead. Who is cool? Who do you think has been worth cheering lately?

Sorry I'm in a terrible mood. This is one of the reasons Reader o' the Day has been fun. It's cheerful. And a sense of community is important. For reasons I've never fully grasped it's kind of a lone wolf site. The other movie sites and/or awards sites are constantly referencing each other like a tennis match but we're just off to the side doing our thing, day in and day out. Sometimes we'll do something brilliant and no one will notice and it's kind of a bummer. Other times we'll notice total press release regurgitations going truly viral from other sites and we're like 'why? There's no there there? It's just the press release!' This is not to diss other sites -- there are fine ones out there and every site be it great, good, mediocre or below average has its weaker days and its stronger ones (including this one) -- we just find it odd is all. And we're feeling contemplative. It's tough to do original content day in and day out (like The Hit Me With Your Best Shot feature for example) and have it go nowhere and sites that just do press releases and trailers and casting rumors all day are hugely popular. I was discussing this the other day with Glenn at Stale Popcorn, one of my personal favorite blogs. And it is frustrating for sites that try to have an original voice. Sometimes you feel like you're shouting into the abyss and you'd be better off just posting trailers and posters and quoting other blogs for all your posts.

Anyway... [/boring pity party]

My point is: I really appreciate the community The Film Experience has from you, the loyal readers. The ones who are here year 'round and not just when the Oscar noms and Oscar night happenings happen (always the two biggest days, traffic wise). Are you liking the Reader o' the Day feature? We're doing it for the rest of the month. Maybe it should be a weekly feature hereafter? We'll see.

Awards Brief
The Producer's Guild has announced their awards night date for this film year. It's January 21st, 2012. One date down... dozens more to go.

Link's Cutoff

Your Movie Buddy has already named a few "best of the year" posters (and it's only March!) including this absolute beaut for Meek's Cutoff to your left. Seriously. I like this poster better than the movie and I like the movie pretty well.
The Wrap has an open letter to David E Kelley about his new Wonder Woman series that doubles as a love letter to Joss Whedon. I think it's time the internet gave up that ghost as sad as it is to say farewell to.
Scene Stealers gives a fist up to Duncan Jones's Source Code with our Jake Gyllenhaal.
Slant also looks at the new scifi tinged thriller
Towleroad speaking of... some lame person at SXSW tried to snap a photo of Jakey doing his business in the bathroom. Uncool.
Critical Condition unburies 80s stinker Just One of the Guys and treats it like a hidden treasure.
Old Hollywood shares a great 70s quote from Peter Weir on Picnic at Hanging Rock (1975).
My New Plaid Pants Eeek. How did I miss this old Michael Fassbender commercial? So funny. And naked.

Finally, The Hairpin has curated an Netflix instant watch program called "Newman's Ownly" that sounds more delicious, soul-fattening, and spiritually satiating than any solo triple feature evening has any right to be

"'Hombre' means 'man'…and Paul Newman is 'Hombre'."

Should you partake in this orgy of celluloid Newmanliness, I only ask that you make it a double feature instead or replace Hud (1963) with another film somehow. Hud should be rented on DVD or simply bought on BluRay as it deserves better resolution than the generally good but still streamed "Instant Watch" can provide. It's one of those crispest and most perfect looking black and white films ever made, like it was carved from the purest cinematic marble by Michelangelo himself. There's one cold-eyed close-up of Newman that is so heart stopping I needed a defribulator to make it through the rest of the movie. Plus, Hud (1963) is one of the best movies of its entire decade so give it the space in your head that it deserves.

Before They Were Mutants

As much as we may lament the all superheroes all the time movie culture (variety is the key to life) this June offering, X-Men First Class, as you know, we're looking forward to. Blame X-fandom and (hopefully) strong casting. So here's McAvoy & Fassy as Professor X and Magn sorry as Charles and Erik.

The New Teaaer Posters

James McAvoy and Michael Fassbender both have movies coming out prior to this one though: McAvoy stars in The Conspirator (April 15th) about the Lincoln Assassination and Fassy stars in Jane Eyre (March 11th) with Mia Wasikowska so perhaps they'll own the spring/early summer.

Before they are mutants. they'll be...

Which incarnation of each of them are you most looking forward to? And which are you previous favorite incarnations?