Predix: Supporting Actor and The Matter of Young Leads
Monday, April 4, 2011 at 11:10AM 
Jim Broadbent as Dennis ThatcherWhen it comes to blindfolded Oscar predictions, almost nothing beats the supporting categories. I have this vague fantasy of time travel and returning to propose all 10 supporting acting nominees correctly one April to reams of laughter from the internet. They can be so hard to see coming for so many reasons including: adaptations sometimes lean on different characters than the novels or plays that birthed them, ensembles are tricky because you don't know who will win "best in show" reviews, one lead films are tricky because the huge role at the center (The Iron Lady, J. Edgar) sometimes end up sucking up all the oxygen and other times have coattails. Then there's the small matter of Oscar being more diverse aesthetically when it comes to supporting work. Here is where comedy, horror, sci-fi, fantasy and even comic book movies (Dick Tracy, The Dark Knight) can show up even though they rarely if ever get play in lead categories.
Kenneth Branagh? Christoph Waltz? Philip Seymour Hoffman x 2? Viggo Mortensen x 2? Armie Hammer or Josh Lucas? Ben Kingsley? Christopher Plummer? Jim Broadbent -- his Iron Lady performance already has tongues (and fingers) wagging -- Richard E Grant or Anthony Head? Nick Nolte? Brad Pitt? You can drive yourself crazy thinking about all the possibilities. Maybe you have?
The first predictions for 2011
NEW TOPIC: This is as good a year as any, I assume, to prove my frequent statements about Oscar's double standards with gender. There are at least three very high profile films with young male leads this year: HUGO CABRET (Asa Butterfield is 14 years old), WAR HORSE (Jeremy Irvine is ??? years old), and SUPER 8 (Joel Courtney is ??? years old).
Asa Butterfield, Jeremy Irvine and Joel Courtney
If you've ever doubted my assertion about this double standard -- some people have objected to the statements -- watch how these performances are treated this year while keeping in mind how Hailee Steinfeld's work was greeted in True Grit as if the heavens or the red sea had parted. The media, critics and Oscar voters are quick to shove aside experience and accomplishment in women when a "fresh player" enters but not so with male actors. My prediction: at least one of these three does work on par or better than Hailee's and doesn't get anything like her traction. Watch and see.
Obviously there are exceptions, as there are to every rule: There was no denying Haley Joel Osment's gift in The Sixth Sense (1999) although he did get demoted to Supporting and lost to somebody who already had an Oscar, and Justin Henry won a nomination at 8 (!) for Kramer Vs. Kramer. In both cases the films were absolute sensations at the box office. Dramas no longer explode with audiences like Kramer vs. Kramer did but in today's dollars its box office haul was truly insane. We're talking a domestic haul closer to the latest Harry Potter than a True Grit or King's Speech. In other words, even Oscar doesn't ignore the zeitgeist.
Reader Comments (32)
I think War Horse might HIT that zeitgeist. In it's previous two incarnations (novel, theatre piece) it's been a massive success (Lincoln Centre is putting it on Broadway now), and there's just something about it that seems like it could appeal to a HUGE spectrum of audience.
After last season's series of unexpected hits, I choose to be optimistic.
When I made my predictions in January, we had four of the same nominees-- I had substituted Armie Hammer for Christophe Waltz (I still wonder if Carnage is a 2011 release. I'm not that familiar with Polanski's working style, but he doesn't seem to me like someone who'd rush to get this out). I also had PSH for Moneyball, not The Ides of March. It would seem to be a more energetic role.
I'll actually change up my predictions now, but only slightly: Mortensen (my predicted winner), Plummer, Kingsley, Branagh, and PSH. I want Plummer to be excellent and earn the win.
Oh yeah, Arkaan reminds me of my other thought: if you say boys get nominated only when they're in huge films, then I think there's a safe bet that either of the three movies you list could meet that criteria and garner a nom for their young stars. I think Super 8 will be huge though too action-y to build a campaign for Courtney, but Butterfield or Irvine could get one assuming that they don't split out the "young prodigy" vote. Both will be huge by Oscar standards, which as you say have been changing in recent years.
What about Living Legend Christopher Lee? He has a role in HUGO CABRET and, maybe, his cult status could earn him to crown his mighty career with an oscar nomination
For how similar our predictions for lead actor were, our supporting are a bit different. Again, I've got Fassbender in the supporting role for Danger Method, but that's neither here nor there. Plummer is in my Top 5, but I cheated and said either of Beginners/Girl with Dragon Tattoo. Then I have Clooney, Arestrup, and Penn rounding out the top 5. I'm a bit weary on Penn, though. I have him getting a nomination for Tree of Life, but there are questions as to how much screen time he will be receiving.
Aw, our predictions only match in one case: Kenneth Branagh. I can see that being a "welcome back" type nomination after being so popular in the late 80s/early 90s and then getting a vicious critical smackdown in the late 90s/early 00s.
Kyle Chandler getting a nomination would be the shit.
Red, Fassbender is not supporting in A Dangerous Method, plain and simple. :)
My predictions:
-Viggo Mortensen - A Dangerous Method
-Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Ides of March
-Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
-Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
-Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Not enough newbies? Hmm.
There's always those films that will fall short of expectations, and this year I think that will be Hugo Cabret. I read the script and thought it was a bit dull. I can't see Oscar voters going for this more family-oriented film. :/
what about garrett hedlund as dean in on the road? i know nothing in his filmography would suggest that he cold have the words: oscar nominee in front of his name. but the reason i would include him is the role. anyone who has read the book knows what a great character dean moriarty is. it's one of those magnetic parts that sucks the life out of everything around him and demands to be noticed. all garrett has to do is show up and most of the work is already done for him. it could really be one of those 'a star is born' performances.
also, i know cronenberg has said that fassbender is the lead in a triangular cast. but since when has the academy paid attention to that? my gut says he'll go supporting and viggo goes lead. fassbender would have a better time getting his first nomination (since, unlike the adorning internet, he's not that well known) if he dropped down to supporting. and viggo is too big of a star and veteran not to be campaigned in lead. think ethan hawke and denzel in training day or forrest whitaker and james mcavoy in last king of scotland. i just have a feeling...but i'll probably be eating my words come next january.
abstew -- i haven't read ON THE ROAD (*ashamed*) but so far his work has been mostly poorly reviewed. Let's see if he can turn it around. But showy roles are oftne the way to do that yes.
danielle -- i have a big question mark in my head whenever i think of Hugo Cabret. I keep thinking of that movie with saoirse ronan City of Ember movie and how it came and went and nobody noticed. not that people don't notice Scorsese pictures ;)
Mirko -- i tried to read up on HUGO CABRET but couldn't find good thorough information. every article only seems to talk about Hugo & Papa Georges so i couldn't find much info on the other roles. But now i want to read the book because i love experimental books like that. I was deeply into Griffin and Sabine when it came out years and years ago (the book with all the envelopes that you had to open up to read the letters.
abstew i wondered too about hedlund as moriarity/cassady in 'on the road.' with walter salles directing, it could be really good. (then again, with kristen stewart in the lead it could disappear as fast as ... what was the name of that joan jett movie?)
anyone want to throw eric bana in 'hannah' on the list? just for the sake of joe wright's magic touch?
I predict it will be all Plummer by the time we get thru awards season; well-liked, overdue for recognition, career award, playing gay and the whole film will be (and is already) well-received. It will all come together for him this year and Oscar will play right along.
in garrett's defense he hasn't really been in anything yet that has required him to, well, act. i don't think anyone went into tron legacy expecting a master class in acting. and with a cast in on the road that includes amy adams, viggo mortensen, sam riley, kirsen dunst, and, yes, even kristen stewart, i just feel like he had to have done something right to get a role that i'm sure was a lot of really talented young actors dream role.
I hope you're right, Gian. The trailer is so nice.
Abstew, I do feel odd predicting Mortensen in a supporting category. It just seems wrong based on his persona and the fact that Fassbender is only now a rising star, but I also wonder whether he'd get an Oscar any other way.
If Cronenberg is already calling Fassbender the lead, however, what are the chances that the studio would disagree and campaign them in the opposite positions? Any precedent for that?
Anyway, we all know that Nathaniel will consider both Fassbender and Mortensen as leads in next year's FB Awards. ;)
Cronenberg clearly states that Fassbender is lead. Fassbender is no Hailee Steinfield, so I can't see them putting him in supporting. I have a feeling A Dangeorus Method will go unnoticed.
Evan -- lol. I will if he is. But maybe he's not. I mean i don't know anything about the screenplay other than that Cronenberg has called Fassbender the lead. Maybe Viggo is just a large supporting role? who knows.
I did once see a play on the same topic and it was the woman who was the lead and the men had basically equal size parts warring over him. I assume you could tell this story through any of the three subjective angles. or back up and have all three leads.
Yeah, those three boys will be no go in lead actor. Even supporting actor would be a tough sell. An even tougher sell when genre bias is concerned. The only one with a shot at anything is the one in the Spielberg film.
I agree with you Melissa, I think "A Dangerous Method" will be unnoticed, even for dissapoinment. I had a bad feeling after Cannes rumors -I know the poissibility of being in post-production- but wuth higher expectations, risky plot and not (potential) box office...
My Predictions:
-Nicolas Bro, War Horse - If the film will thiumph...
-Armie Hammer, J. Edgar - Sure thing in supporting actress, but he's hot, famous and second-handed with DiCaprio.
-Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life - With Moneyball, this would be an excellent year for Brad Pitt. If DiCaprio or Gosling will win in the Leading Category...
-Stellan Skarsgard, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - If the adaptation is more faithfull to the novel, his role is pitch perfect in this category: Sadistic serial killer
-Christoph Waltz, Carnage - Excellent return for him
Alt: Two british guys. A semi comeback and a veteran
1. Jude Law, Contagion - His role is the baitiest of the ensemble and could be a semi comeback
2. Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady - No more words... We know it
Oh, forget Nicolas Bro. If Hailee Steinfeld was nominated in supporting category (Even when she's the clear lead), so Jeremy Irvine could be also. Especially:
-THe film will be a box office hit
-Like Steinfeld, a critics awards' winner
-British vote
-No Confusion with other actors (LIke Dev Patel)
The article you link to about Broadbent & Denis Thatcher is from the Daily Mail; the most conservative right wing paper in UK. Of course they'll have problems with "Liberal Hollywood" making a movie about their shinning star. It's CBS/Showtime and The Reagans all over again!
Non of the rum diary boys??
Nathaniel, I say this with all conviction: you will love the novel The Invention of Hugo Cabret[/i]. It's one of the loveliest novels of the decade and easily the best writing for "children" (along with The Amber Spyglass and The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Nightime).
It's gorgeously illustrated (for all intents and purposes, it's a movie bound in a book) and a lovely love letter to cinema. It's a masterpiece.
I completely agree with Murtada's comment about the Daily Mail and "The Iron Lady." Since the picture was first announced the Daily Mail has been leading the charge against the film. It has attacked the script, Streep, and now Broadbent 's portrayal of Dennis Thatcher. It has called the movie "appalling," "disgusting" and a"hatchet" job." All this before the film has even finished shooting.
I don't know how Malick movies campaign, but isn't it a possibility that Brad Pitt goes lead for Tree of Life?? I'm thinking of Keira Knightly going lead for Atonement (Briony was the lead, but her role was split between actresses, thus Keira goes lead). Given the presumably grand scope of the film, might there be a long enough span of time for the character in the film, despite a lack of screentime, to justify a lead nom?
If Leo delivers in J.Edgar, does that hurt Plummer's chances for a win ("we can't give BOTH male acting oscars to gay characters!)? Then again, maybe the Academy will want to make a STATEMENT this year and go for the gay in a big way: J Edgar for Pic, Dustin Lance Black for screenplay, Leo and Close for lead, Plummer for Supporting, and Ru Paul's Drag Race contestants lip syncing' for their lives on Original song nominees. Who would host this pride parade, you ask? Ryan Seacrest and Kathy Griffin :)
My predictions;
01. Armie Hammer - "J. Edgar"
02. Viggo Mortensen - "A Dangerous Method"
03. Christopher Plummer - "Beginners"
04. John Hawkes - "Martha Marcy May Marlene"
05. Philip Seymour Hoffman - "Moneyball"
06. Christoph Waltz - "Carnage"
07. Brad Pitt - "The Tree of Life"
08. Ben Kingsley - "Hugo Cabret"
09. Jude Law - "Contagion"
10. Garrett Hedlund - "On the Road"
* Hoffman for "The Ides of March" sorry,
My out there guess for Best Supporting Actor is Beau Bridges for The Descendants. It's time to spread the Bridges love, and actors will not have forgotten big brother.
My predix:
1. Viggo Mortensen - A Dangerous Method
2. Beau Bridges - The Descendants
3. Armie Hammer - J. Edgar
4. Christoph Waltz - Carnage
5. Tom Hiddleston - War Horse
6. Brendan Gleeson - Albert Nobbs
7. Christopher Plummer - Beginners
8. Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
9. Patrick Wilson - Young Adult
10. Colin Farrell - Horrible Bosses
Personally, I go around pretending as if G.Hedlund has already won. :P
The only thing that bothers me is the possibility that the film comes out in 2012 instead of 2011.
Paul & Murtada -- thanks. I didn't know anything about the political leanings of that website. But I'm worried abotu the politics of the film myself. I'm so tired of how delicately conservatives are treated so as not to offend them. And they're *so* easily offended when they're called out on their issues.
Nathaniel - I would pay attention to Danish actor Nicolas Bro for his role in "War Horse". His role (a 'good German' officer who inherits the titular horse and treats it kindly, and has a bittersweet meeting with its original owner) was the standout in the stage play, apparently. I have a feeling that I might have a yearlong run of being his lone predictor before seeing him suddenly gain buzz (a la Michael Shannon in 2008).
Also, Benedict Cumberbatch has the largest "supporting role" in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy - at least his role was the most prominent in the novel and its past screen incarnations.
Wooden Garrett Hedlund an Oscar nominee? Shoot me now.