'April Foolish' Oscar Predix In All Categories But...
Tuesday, April 24, 2012 at 11:31AM ...Best Actress.
I know. I know. I'm like those annoying repetitive "coming up on _______" interstitials which tell you what you're about to see about 20 times before you actually see it. But these Oscar charts are lots of work, y'hear? So don't only read the Best Actress page (yes, it's the most visited Oscar page. Always). Read them all. There's not much text yet (time constraints but the charts are up. Wheeeee
Here are twelve pressing questions about the five new Oscar chart pages for this film year
The first teaser poster for Les Miz embraces the original stage sensation logo and promises "THE MOTION PICTURE EVENT OF 2012". Can it deliver on all this promise?
• Can Tom Hooper win a second Best Director Oscar with film number three? That seems unlikely even if Les Misérables pushes all the Oscar buttons; multiple director wins in tiny time frames are not unprecedented, just rare.
• Or am I barking up the wrong tree and is it Kathryn Bigelow who'll be gold hunting again with the Osama hunting actioner Zero Dark Thirty?
• Don't you think Ben Affleck becomes more of a Clint Jr. threat each year? Can he find a place with his true story political thriller Argo?
• Can David Cronenberg, a director's director if there ever was one, ever find a way to win Oscar traction? It's not like outre auteurs are always ignored.
• My statistics as an Oscar pundit over the years prove that Original Screenplay is one of the toughest categories to predict a year early. So much depends on critical response. Do you think I'm on the right track here with Brave, Hyde Park on Hudson, Imogene, The Master and Seven Psychopaths or is that too many potential critical darlings in one category?
•What do you make of Life of Pi's chances in Adapted? Or any category for that matter.
• Captain America, Iron Man 2 and Thor didn't exactly light up the Oscar technical branch fires but can The Avengers turn things around?
• Have any of you read this amazing bitchy New York Times piece on the fashion world's reaction to The Hunger Games. Here's a sample...
Sally Hershberger, the celebrity hairstylist and frequent collaborator with the photographer Annie Leibovitz... As she saw it, the on-screen outfits looked “clownish,” like things you would see at a “costume party in Venice.” “It’s not a ‘Blade Runner’ moment,” Ms. Hershberger said. “This is not a fashion film. It looks too cheap.”
...Paul Wilmot, the public relations guru who has worked for designers like Oscar de la Renta and Calvin Klein, simply called the film’s costumes “hideola.” (This did not appear to be a compliment.)
Can costume designer Judianna Markovsky get nominated anyway? I mean isn't The Hunger Games too big to fully ignore? Won't it have to end up as a nominee somewhere?
• Will Emmanuel Lubezki ever win the Oscar? He might have another shot this year with Gravity (in which he shares Cinematography duties but history teaches us not to hope for a full mantle for one of the true greats. Ugh, those last two losses (Children of Men, The Tree of Life) still just sting.
Spielberg films aren't complete without John Williams scoresBEST AURALS
• It's been decades since John Williams won Best Original Score but can he turn things around with Steven Spielberg's Lincoln? Like Meryl Streep in Best Actress Williams seems to have been punished (as far as winning goes) by barely having to lift a finger to get nominated, whether deserving or not. I haven't done the math but I believe he's got the best ratio of work to nominations of all time in any category. He's been nominated in virtually every eligible calendar year and sometimes twice over.
• Oh Original Song, you always troublesome endangered Oscar species. Will they cancel you altogether this year? You know Oscar's music branch despises this category, continually undermining their own craft. In what way will they self sabotage this year? To quote the late great Amy Winehouse... ♪ what kind of fuckery is this? ♫
• Pixar experienced its first year without a Best Animated Feature nomination last year when Cars 2 crashed critically. Will Brave be an easy return to glory?
• If not... which animated film is most likely to put up a strong fight: Frankenweenie? Pirates?
previously posted / discussed PICTURE | ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS still TBA FOREIGN CHARTS (Will throw the submission theory charts up once Cannes wraps) and BEST ACTRESS (This will go up this weekend. It must!)
Costume Design, Directors, Oscars (12), Screenplays
Reader Comments (42)
If I were to award prizes for film, there would be just two categories: Best Actress and Best Costume Design.
Best Actress THIS WEEKEND?! That's another 4 days, sir. :P I think I've read the other charts about five times now haha.
Great first predictions as always. This year seems to be filled with so much more "baity" movies than this past year. It is always interesting, to me, to see which films follow through with their "on paper" promises and which ones fail to ever make a splash.
Prometheus seems like it's going to be beautiful and fun. I think it might get tech noms that spill over. Fassbender's supporting robotic turn seems too strange and cool to ignore, and Rapace and Theron are critical and crowd pleasers (and everyone now thinks Sigourney Weaver should have won for Ripley).
I'd add Judy Davis for supporting in Eye of the Storm. People will see her in To Rome With Love and think oh yeah I like her but this part isn't good enough for her, but wait, this other part is great. I'd also add Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea. Released early, but that could make it a first screener.
So far, I totally see the appeal of Lincoln, Les Miz, Hyde Park, Gravity. Not convinced yet for The Master, Argo, The Surrogate. I think The Trouble With The Curve and Imogene might turn out well, and am curious about Gatsby and Karenina.
I really only visit the Best Actress chart. I guess I'm just an obsessive of actress performances. Hope we can get your BA chart by the weekend, PLEASE...
I know the charts are time consuming and you do a great job...
No one is getting nominated for Prometheus lol.
keeping us waiting for the best actress page - how very rupaul of you...
under hugh jackman you say only two men have won best actor for musicals - which one have you forgotten - rex harrison, yul brynner or james cagney?
I'm pretty sure The Hunger Games costumes were supposed to look like that because of the book descriptions. They look like clowns and apparently it was even toned down in the film that most of the Capitol people are bulimics. They're just ridiculous people.
That being said, Jennifer Lawrence seems like the sure thing nomination.
Bia-while she'll be in contention, I seriously doubt that she's a "sure thing" nomination. In fact, I'd be supremely surprised if she made it-it's so early, and it's so genre, and there will be a backlash at some point. Plus, movies that win MTV Movie Awards don't generally score with Oscar in major categories.
Out of curiosity, what makes you so postive about "Quartet?" Is it the baity cast or have you heard advance good word?
Kerry Washington's role in Django is supposedly very small. Too bad if so. She should have been nodded for Ray along with Regina King. I think her time will come though. Maybe not here, but soon. Anything to rescue her from Scandal.
Since Life of Pi is one of my favorite novels and the last 20 years and Ang Lee is one of the best directors of the last 20 years, you see my expectations are sky-high
Don't forget to include BARBRA STREISAND in you Best Actress category. Yes! Word on the street from the MANY screenings of her upcoming road trip movie, THE GUILT TRIP (with Seth Rogen as her son) is that she's Oscar-worthy. If Melissa McCarthy can get a comedy nom for BRIDESMAIDS, then legendary Barbra could for GUILT TRIP.
par3182 -- it ws not for any purposeful reason or traffic baiting. just the fact that i ran out of time and SOMETHING had to go up. also as to who i forgot in Best Actor Musical it was actually Yul Brynner which is hilarious because he's my favorite fo the three by several thousand miles and cross oceans
brendan -- baity cast, plus dustin hoffman directing which will get some press
Mike M -- i love you. They *are* the two best categories (give or take supporting actress)
Danielle -- how could you have read the other charts several times already when i just finished them. ;)
gerald -- people keep saying that about Kerry Washington but i think what people read in early scripts is not necssarily what ends up onscreen. and sometimes small roles can have big impact anyway. I get that i may have overestimated her but i think the itnernet thinks they know a lot more about this movie than they do, Tarantino films being remarkable in execution usually.
we'll see. i'm crossing my fingers that her role is more interesting in execution than people are claiming it was on the page (given that page to motion picture is a huge leap)
I have to say I agree with that NYT piece. I was a fan of the Hunger Games books and, given the descriptions of the costumes in the books (particularly Cinna's costumes for Katniss) I was eagerly anticipating what the movie had in store for us on the costuming front, but I was sorely disappointed. They had a chance to do something spectacular, and they sort of blew it. I believe InStyle did a piece last fall where they asked a dozen or so designers to sketch a potential "fire dress" for Katniss, and they were all far more spectacular that the garment that appeared on film.
I know there's a lot of anticipation for Les Miz at The Film Experience, but unless it's the consensus selection as the best film of the year, I doubt Tom Hooper will get a nod. In retrospect, I don't think his first win is viewed that kindly, and this will be a very competitive year.
At this point I'd say Les Miserables is the one to beat for costume. Smart of them to use the play's logo on their teaser poster - that's one of the few Broadway poster images that is completely iconic, so that even folks who've never seen the play (moi) recognize it.
Adri...I thought that "The Eye of the Storm" had already been released in the USA, and was surprised to find that it's only scheduled for a September release. It had a limited release here in Canada last December. Judy Davis was good...but so were Geoffrey Rush and Charlotte Rampling.
Also, Nat, Vanessa Redgrave is never going to get another Oscar nomination; the special recognition she got last year from AMPAS will have to suffice.
Not to be "that guy" but I agree with Nathaniel re: possible acting nods for Quartet. I read the script a couple of years ago and while I can't necessarily see it in best picture, it could be a Last Station type of thing where it gets acting nods on its prestige. Maggie Smith especially, because they nominated her for a similar role in Gosford Park.
Reading Oscar predictions a week after the announcement of the Cannes lineup is causing me some severe cognitive dissonance.
Oh noes. The Hunger Games hurt fashion peoples' fee-fees. It's ok. I'm sure there will be plenty of films that don't intentionally mock high fashion for you to rally around and not have to maybe look at the inherent absurdity of your industry.
I check the pages nearly every day and end up just reading again what's on there!
And omg, Jenn Lawrence is NOT getting nominated for THG. Stop being ridiculous people "sure thing".. heh.
@Danielle
I agree, it doesn't seem likely now, but the same way it's hard to say that she definitely will get nominated, it's equally impossible to determine that she will NOT (all caps) get nominated either.
I remember 2003, where a lot of people were like "Oh, Johnny Depp. That'll never happen. They would never nominate him for that."
Before the pitchforks and torches come my way, let it be understood that I'm not speaking qualitatively about either performance. I'm just drawing thin comparisons; relatively early release date (where Oscar nominations are usually concerned), huge box office, performer who a lot of people really like a lot in a films that are about equal in terms of critical reception. In short, I'm just saying...like everyone else on the Internet six months before Oscar season. I am just saying...
You're overpredicting Hyde Park on Hudson. Roger Michell's filmography isn't that impressive, so I see noms for Murray and Linney but that's about it.
Sometimes I think you're a little too safe with your predicts, Nathaniel. Remember, people like you are the trendsetters. If you keep proclaiming that only certain types of films get recognized by Oscar, then such will be so...it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Don't be afraid to include Django, Dark Knight, The Hobbit, or Prometheus in other categories.
Bravo, Robert G. The fashion industry is a waste of time.
If it lives up to Anderson's previous films, The Master absolutely must be nominated to make up for the Academy's snubbing of Magnolia and Boogie Nights.
Does Joel Grey not count as one of the men who won for a musical? Or is it just leading you're talking about?
Mike -- I was talking about leading men. but i guess I should have been more specific.
thatguy -- hmmm. usually i get accused of being too wild. I am one of the only pundits who skips out on the obvious a year in advance if i sense it's not going to play out (the only person who never believed taht cate blanchett in Benjamin Button would happen ;) -- and not to be defensive but wouldn't THE HOBBIT be the obvious film here since the other three were so Oscar-loved? I am just guessing the bloom is off that particular rose.
I want Alexandre Desplat to win best score for the new Wes Anderson movie. He won't of course.
I think Carey Mulligan may win her Oscar this year. Possibly because I don't think she could care less. She's married to Mumford now.
I would love it if The Life of Pi is another Ang Lee masterpiece and he gets the Best Picture Oscar that he missed out on before with Brokeback, Crouching Tiger and Sense and Sensibility.
12 Answers and other random thoughts.
1. I don't think Hooper will win for Les Miserables, nor the film itself, but it would be a way to rubber stamp their own taste. HOWEVER... something like 50% of first time nominees as winners don't return (Demnme, Zemeckis, Gibson, Minghella, Mendes from the 90s, for example).
2. Bigelow really does seem too "of-the-moment" to recpature The Hurt Locker's success (which was already rather flukey, if you think about it).
3. Yeah - Ben Affleck definitely appears to be more like Clint Eastwood than Kevin Costner, vis-a-vis oscar and respectability.
4. David Cronenberg is just a little too wierd. His more mainstream stuff rarely gets that kind of critical acclaim to push hisself into the top five (A History of Violence being the exception, and yes - AMPAS fucked up there royally).
5. Imogene's the one I'd kick off, but that poster irritates me.
6. I have no idea how The Life of Pi will play out. But I don't think it'll play out that well.
7. I doubt The Avengers will get in anywhere.
8. The Hunger Games will content itself with getting Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson and other dude to present at the show.
9.. Ask Roger Deakins.
10. No, I don't think so.
11. They will nominate only thirty second snippets from songs, such that one song will have three nominations. Vote splitting will occur.
12. Yes.
I wouldn't underestimate The Hobbit. I think the film will remind fans why they love Jackson. And I think after the mess he made with his last film he'll want to redeem himself.
The only people who look at Hooper's win unkindly are crazed David Fincher worshippers (I know a lot of them post at film awards sites). But a good number of people loved The King's Speech. I'm not saying Hooper has a chance of winning another director Oscar but he does have a good chance of being nominated. If he is able to do with Les Miserables what he did with Elizabeth 1 and John Adams for television, he may wind up improving the beloved musical which needs some rejuvenation.
Crazed David Fincher worshippers are hardly the only people who look unkindly on the Hooper win.
Im confident that foosball (metegol), oscar winner Campanella´s first take in an animated film will show up in the animated category. They always try to fit in some international option, and the teaser seems ok. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pEgsPFE8lc
All looks pretty good, but as we all know, there is literally no way to know. There are always films we expect to be big that stumble. Always.
As for the animated category - "Tales of the Night" will may be deemed ineligible since, if I remember correctly, it is a collection of short animations that aired on French TV and here they've been assembled together. I think that's how it works (I've seen it, it's not very good). Also, that Australian one - "Trouble Down Under" - I think it's been confirmed that that will not have a 2012 release date.
Eh, I don't think Depp in POTC and Lawrence in THG are that comparable. Narratives are always uber-important. Depp was at that point still an "underrated" actor who had been famous for 20-odd years without any of the requisite accolades or (numerous) box office achievements to qualify as a superstar, and POTC was the cherry on top to all the other building pressures to reward him his dues. Not to mention, the critics were all over him. People seem to really like Jennifer Lawrence in THG, but I don't think it's a consensus at all. She still got some middling to "oh yeah, she's good, I guess" reviews (the NYtimes hated her - it was sort of hilarious), she's already Oscar-nominated and she's isn't the same revelation Depp was in POTC. She's not even completely on par with, say, Robert Downy Jr. in Iron Man.
Daisy isn't a role an actress wins for; it's simply not that juicy. I can definitely see Carey being nominated, but not winning.
If Lawrence delivers in Silver Linings she'll be nominated for that. The reviews for the film weren't that great and it's not as if she was completely raved.
Gabriel Oak: Um...huh? I have to agree with Mike in Canada here: Even if you DON'T think Fincher's achievement on The Social Network is that great, I can name three other people that would deserve a win, two of them nominated, by the way, much more than Tom Hooper in 2010:
David O Russell (The Fighter)
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Luca Guadignino (I Am Love)
Next to the actual work, effort and identity poured into The Fighter, The Social Network and Black Swan, something blandly "prestige" and flabby (it was half an hour too long for what the plot actually amounted to) like The King's Speech winning Director and Picture is a shame.
I'm reading the book "The Silver Linings Playbook" now and the characters that Bradley Copper and Lawrence are playing are so interesting. I can't wait to see the big moments from the book on screen. Can't wait to see Cooper gets all dramatic in this one.
The Best Art/Set Direction Oscar goes to... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2132756/Amanda-Seyfried-makes-debut-Cosette-set-Les-Miserables-movie-period-dress.html?ito=feeds-newsxml