April Foolish Predictions: The Supporting Categories
Saturday, April 7, 2012 at 6:05PM Nowhere is the "April Foolish" descriptive more appropriate than in the Supporting Categories. They're generally the last major categories to clear up in each Oscar race since so much rides on the success of a film and/or its leading players. Coattails are often required even if the performance is great all by its lonesome. Witness the sad fate of Vanessa Redgrave's Coriolanus performance in the last race. She was easily the greatest but barely any awards group noticed since reviews for the film were lukewarm and it was barely released at that.
Vanessa Redgrave and Terence Stamp are old married in "Song for Marion"
Redgrave might be in play again this year, though, with a warmer title role in Song For Marion. The last time she was in the Oscar race (20 years ago) she was playing a dying woman who worked as a catalyst for the protagonist's emotional journey and the same is probably true here in this film about her husband (Terence Stamp) who joins the church choir to please her. The supporting categories are often home to heartwarmers like that and they're much kinder to senior actors as well so the cast of Quartet (Maggie Smith, Tom Courtenay, Billy Connolly and Pauline Collins) Dustin Hoffman's directorial debut about retired opera singers, might win kudos too.
If Oscar wants to lean darker -- they love villains in both of the supporting categories -- they might latch on to the sure to be controversial Django Unchained but it's worth noting that Pulp Fiction is the only Quentin Tarantino film that has managed multiple acting nominations. So it's anyone's guess as to who will be named "best in show" this time out but my money is currently on the villain (Leonardo DiCaprio) and his captive (Kerry Washington)
Crowded Films
We can't possibly know this early on who the standouts will be in various crowded films but we can guess. Ben Affleck's Argo, Kathryn Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty, and Steven Spielberg's Lincoln might be key films to watch for the Supporting Actor category since they all involve dangerous military operations and the cast lists are deep. Les Misérables will undoubtedly be the film that will spark the most early discussion about the Supporting Actress category since Anne Hathaway, Amanda Seyfried, Samantha Barks and Helena Bonham-Carter will all have key moments they can own.
Can David O. Russell get two of his supporting ladies nominated again? The Silver Linings Playbook has Jacki Weaver and Jennifer Lawrence
Double Dipping?
Oscar has really gone crazy for doubling up in Supporting Actress this past decade. It just keeps happening that two actresses are nominated from the same film. Two more films which might be in play for the ol' twice over are Hyde Park on Hudson (The Olivias, Williams and Colman) and David O. Russell's The Silver Lining Playbook (with previous nominees Jennifer Lawrence and Jacki Weaver)
Can all those "Rampart" raves, help Woody Harrelson in his next role as a dog-loving mobster?
The April Foolish Predictions...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
See where they rank: Amy Adams, Redgrave, The Bening, JLaw hot off Hunger Games, Mary Todd "Sally" Lincoln, Nicole Kidman, The Olivias and the Les Mis girls.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
See where they rank: All those men still waiting for a win like Leo, Woody & Joaquin, plus previous winners Lee Jones, Waltz, and many more.
Naturally you'll want to sound off on all the wonderful possibilities. Which performances do you have warm fuzzy hunches about? Which performances do you think I'm overestimating?
Reader Comments (66)
Though it's silly to be rooting for performances before having actually seen any, I really, really hope that Olivia Williams gets in, if only because a year without Olivia Williams is like a year without sunshine, darn it. And I have to imagine that Amy Adams is going to be a threat this year regardless of the role, because she's arrived at that combination of ceremony regular+career heat which results in nominations for just about anything. Wins, on the other hand... Imagine if PTA slings her anything even half as juicy as Amber Waves (how Julianne Moore isn't drowning in awards is just beyond me).
Nate,
Leo DiCaprio has 3 Oscar nominations, not 4 (The Aviator, Blood Diamond and Gilbert Grape).
Sorry for nitpicking...
No Helena Bonham Carter, for Great Expectations? Not even in the fourth tier of Supporting Actress? Playing Miss Havisham is such Oscar-bait, and I think a BAFTA nomination (at the very least) is inevitable.
Early words say Nicole Kidman boasts a stunning performance in The Paperboy. Source: IndieWire
My thoughts about these predictions:
-Unfortunally, Kerry Washington's role isn't getting awards recognition -Even with a frontrunner status for "Django Unchained"-. After reading the script, I'm more surprised she accepted that role because Broomilda hasn't an character development or even meaty parts.
-Jennifer Lawrence's Tiffany in TSLP could go in the leading category if Harvey wants to compete in every category. With Vanessa Redgrave, Amy Adams and Jacki Weaver as potential contenders in the supporting category, is likely than the IT girl of the moment (JLaw) could break another record -Being the youngest actress who received two Oscar nominations in the Leading Category-
-Argo has biggest contenders: Alan Arkin, Brian Cranston, Kyle Chandler and John Goodman. Who will be the contender(s)?
My Predix (In terms of likehood for nomination):
Supporting Actor:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio - If done right, he could be an interesting role for him. At least, Harvey begins the campaign with him saying this role is Oscar worthy for DiCaprio
2. David Strathairn - If the film is faithfull to the book, Strathairn have the biggest role instead Jared Harris or even Lee Jones in "Lincoln"
3. John Goodman - Veteran status. Four films: "Inside Llewyn Davis", "Trouble with the Curve", "Flight" and "Argo".
4. Russell Crowe - I'm more exceptical with Crowe, but his Janvert is a force with Valjean
5. Tom Hardy - Maybe his breakthough year.
Alt: Edgar Ramirez - Just a hunch, but i trust in Bigelow and Ramirez is a hot talented and charismatic actor on screen,
Supporting Actress:
1. Anne Hathaway - Even if her role is relative small, she is the heart of the musical. She has the most recogniable song -"I dreamed a dream". Even she could win.
2. Annette Bening - Comedy performances have better chances in the supporting categories.
3. Jessica Chastain - Maybe is the beginning of a perennial nominee?
4. Vanessa Redgrave - A warm performance and more lighter subject.
5. Whitney Huston - Wild Card. But if the reviews are good enough why not?
Alt: Samantha Barks - If Les Miz didn't fail, Barks and Hathaway could be easily the double dipping.
Mike M. Excellent, so I change Jessica Chastain with Kidman. And Bonhamc Carter as my alternative with Barks
Unless Les Mis is a disaster, I'd say Hathaway walks away with Supporting Actress pretty easily. But damn that category is stacked this year!
Who knows if it'll actually amount to anything (esp. at this stage in the game) but Roger Friedman said in his Cannes article for Forbes that he's hearing that Kidman is "stunning" in The Paperboy. Apparently there have been screenings. If she gets really good notices for it, I'd say she's probably in because it's SO against type for her. And the Academy seems to be over their odd dislike of nominating her. At least if Rabbit Hole was any indication. It was her first nomination without a BP (or any other) nomination, after all.
And I've read from people who have read the script for Django Unchained that Washington's role is completely one note as written. Apparently she's not given much to do. I hope that it was just a previous draft and that Tarantino spices up the part because I really like her. I even suffered through the first episode of Scandal for her, ugh.
A Song for Marion feels a bit Letters to Juliet to me, but who knows. And there seems to be major backlash against Redgrave that really became obvious last year. Not even the BAFTAS touched her with a ten foot poll. They didn't even include her in the long list if memory serves. And that was one of the best performances she's ever given.
Almost nothing has been crossed out yet, and that's half the fun!
Best Supporting Actress
Jessica Chastain, Lawless
Isla Fisher, The Great Gatsby
Kelly Macdonald, Anna Karenina
Olivia Williams, Anna Karenina
Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
Best Supporting Actor:
Bryan Cranston, Argo
Paul Giamatti, Cosmopolis
Richard Jenkins, Cogan's Trade (which is now called Killing Them Softly, I guess)
Gary Oldman, Lawless
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
I need someone older among both the ladies and gentlemen, don't I?
I do have another list in my mind on which Harrelson, Rockwell, Waits, and Walken can all be found...
Take it from me: Oscar Isaac will go lead for Inside Llewyn Davis; Justin Timberlake's role isn't going to be that big.
All in all, I do so enjoy seeing what (or maybe I mean "that") others predict so far in advance. This is shaping up to be an exciting year! Or maybe not. Who knows?
Mike M -- it was mere mistake. I put her in now. Thanks for catching that.
vcb -- yeah, that's very possible (letters to juliet). we'll see.
everyone -- i hope the early buzz is correct on Kidman and I have no reason to disbelieve it (since she's one of our greatest actors) but I still think the Academy is cool on her in general. We'll see.
Re: Coriolanus, I don't think a 79 on Metacritic constitutes "lukewarm." I think that, with The Artist on its roster, The Weinstein Co. clearly wasn't feeling it by the time awards season rolled around.
vcb, maybe, but remember one thing: Redgrave was more nominated in the American Awards than the BAFTAs. The list:
6 Academy Awards Nominations (Including 1 Win)
2 Cannes Awards for Best Actress
6 EMMY Awards Nominations (Including 2 Wins)
13 Golden Globes Nominations (Including 2 Wins)
3 National Society of Film Critics, 3 2nd. Places and 1 3rd. Place
4 Satellite Awards Nominations
and 3 BAFTA Nominations including 1 Honorary BAFTA.
Actually I don't think it was necessary a backlsh against Redgrave. It was more for a sense of other factors:
-Lack of promotion by the Weinstein -Actually, the DVD of Coriolanus was one of the last sended by members of the AMPAS and there are reports of lack of screeners for the film by the HFPA-
-Awful date for a limited release (Only one week in December before the formal release in January)
-Yes vcb. the BAFTA hate her, but it was before that this year. Between her first nomination for Morgan and her second nom with Prick Up your ears it took 20 years!!!. Even her Oscar winning performance in "Julia" was snubbed.
Maybe I'm naive in this point, but I don't think there's a clear backlash for Redgrave just only for last year, even when ten years ago she was stoppable winning awards for her TV performance in "If These Walls Could Talk 2" and also got better roles in films than expected.
sorry it was unstoppable, Redgrave was unstoppable
Aw, I hope Kerry Washington's role is better than it sounds. She deserves some recognition.
With both Les Mis and Batman this year, I can't see Hathaway not getting nominated.
Why not Julianne Moore in What Maisie Knew? If they're going to be faithful to the book, this is not a leading role, at all. There are three fine female supporting roles: the old maid, the mother and the stepmom. They changed the names, but whoever plays Mrs. Wix has a helluva role to work with.
On The Road, anyone? Viggo? Dunst?
^ Doubt it...but I'm always open to hoping for KiKi awards traction. :)
Please don't forget Winona Ryder for 'The Stare' when considering the Best Actress category Nate!
Overestimating:
-Quartet in general
-Kerry Washington - her part is bit
Underestimating:
-David Straithairn - *he* has the next juiciest part, after DDL
-Samantha Barks - her presence is felt throughout the play (unlike Hathaway's) and she'll have the newbie factor
-Samuel L Jackson - supposedly has the baitiest role.
And don't forget - Mulligan could very well go Supporting for The Great Gatsby, depending on how much of the focus is on the love story aspect, as could Linney if the focus is all on Murray.
And I'll be kind of peeved if Lawrence becomes the youngest actress to do "such and such". I know I haven't seen Silver Linings, but both The Hunger Games and Winter's Bone were very similar and neither (though good) were awards worthy, imo. Meanwhile, most young actresses have to wait in between nominations, and Lawrence is not on most of their level.
I think Linney wil go supporting (and hopefully finally win!!). And what about Helen Hunt? I was under the impression that she was supporting in The Surrogate. She's a pretty sure bet for a nod, I think, if she is.
^ I think Helen Hunt has a great chance of being nominated, but she's probably lead actress.
until more concrete info comes in i'm guessing we don't know as much abotu many of these films as we think we do (even in terms of size of roles)
all it takes sometimes is one magic scene to win traction if the film is well liked.
I feel like, with the actresses, a lot is riding on the Emmys.
Three of the frontrunners for Best Actress in a Miniseries/TV Movie have feature films out this year (Nicole, Julianne and Rachel Weisz). Depending on how it pans out, they might want to compensate the "losers" by giving them extra attention come awards season.
Same goes for HBC in Great Expectations. If Gillian Anderson gets in for playing Miss Havisham in the PBS Miniseries, they will definitely be more interested in her performance.
And as for the double-dipping, I think The Master (Adams/Dern) has a strong chance as well. ;)
If Lincoln turns out well Sally Field will almost assuredly be in the running. Mary Todd Lincoln was a deeply complicated erratic woman and Sally does those things very well.
If Kidman gets a nomination for "The Paperboy" I'll be a happy baby :P and I must say, Nathaniel, that picture of her with the blond hair and heavy makeup is GREAT!
No Emily Watson for "Anna Karenina"? She's playing a major bitch, a two-faced woman, an ideal person for Best Supporting Actress :D
I'm nauseated just thinking about all these possible contenders this early. I feel like I can't even talk about the Oscars until at least the summer is over. Much less who's a 'lock' to be nominated. So many different things factor in so many different possible scenarios, I don't even wanna bother trying to make sense of it right now.
I will have a fool's moment for a second and predict everyone from The Master gets nominated. PTA + that juicy material + that amazing *small* cast = noms for everyone! ;)
Not sure what category she'd fit in, but after watching the extended trailer for Snow White and the Huntsman before Titanic 3D, I kinda wonder if Charlize Theron could manage a nomination, particularly if she's marketed as supporting. The performance looks FIERCE. I hate this recent fairy tale renaissance, but Charlize alone has me totally sold on the movie.
Oh, and Eleanor Roosevelt as "too wifey simple"? I doubt it-- besides the fact that Eleanor absolutely rocks, there's a mistress involved. Sounds like a meaty part to me. Olivia is going to rock.
Evan - Oh yeah!!! I said that not long ago about Charlize...I would LOVE if she got some love for this role...she looks FLAWLESS AMAZING ORGASMIC etc
Add Laura Dern for The Master.
I love me some Jen Lawrence, so from your lips to God's ears.
Tom Cruise for Rock of Ages???
I would DIE if Kidman/Cruise were nominated in the same year. Also, I think Leo would too if he won that Oscar for a supporting role.
So great to have reached the actresses!
I want: Bening, Redgrave to be great and get nominated. And Bening to win.
What about Julianne Moore? WHAT DAISY KNOWS, she is supporting in it, right?
My guess is that Kidman goes lead for The Paperboy (apparently she can be perceived as being a co-lead in the film), not to mention the fact that best supporting actress appears more crowded. I think if she could get the nom for a small indie directed by JC Mitchell she certainly can for a louder performance in a Lee Daniels' film, who's more under the Academy's radar than Michell
@ Alexis
I think she will be pushed to the lead category too. A viewer who went to a screening said she had 45 min. of screentime.
Nathaniel- What about the INSANE cast of "the company you keep"? god knows redford hasn't made a decent movie in forever but it stars him, labeouf, julie christie, sarandon, terrence howard, richard jenkins, sam elliott, brendan gleeson, stanley tucci, nick nolte, chris cooper, anna kendrick and brit marling...seems promising, right?
Can we play the actress game again?
yes, please! Can we play the actress game again?
pretty please
I shall think it over. :) it's so much work for me. like hours and hours and hours monthly. But i'll try to figure it out.
To any fellow Brit readers, please don't judge me on the Daily Mail, BUT, Hathaway WANTS that Oscar.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2126747/Anne-Hathaway-short-hair-Actress-chops-locks-Les-Miserables-role.html
Make it simpler.
And dont forget Tom Cruise in Rock of Ages. He looks fun in that movie and its very up his alley meaning a very physical performance
Oh! The Actress contest was so much fun. I'd love to see it back :)
I don't understand the profound love for Jennifer Lawrence . She is only decent - not great. Plus, she was flat in " The Hunger Games " & " X-Men : First Class ." Why didn't the studio hire Saoirse Ronan for the Katniss Everdeen ? Ronan would have been wonderful.
@wus FLAT? She was without a doubt the best thing about the movie. Even reviewers that didn't like it said so. The "I volunteer" scene gave me chills.
I won't argue about X-Men: First Class, because, well, meh, but say what you will, JLaw has the Appalachian-squirrel-eating girl down.
As for the profound love, I guess it comes more from the down-to-earth, self-deprecating thing she's got going than from the acting per se.
Jennifer's role in " Silver Linning Playbook " is only lead, not supporting.
P.S. , Nathaniel , please download Anne Hathaway's incredible reading of " Wizard of Oz " at audible.com ( The A-list collection of Audible.com ) . Anne's vocal work is perfection , and she easily gives distinct voices to each character in this classic book. Trust me, both Meryl Streep & Judy Garland would both be proud of Hathaway's stellar work on this project.
John, I trust my opinion , not the opinion of the critics. I am not a fan of "The Hunger Games. " Most of the casting and acting are mediocre. Stanley Tucci ( I adore ) , Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, & Wes Bentley's performances felt like they were in a completely different movie- they all didn't make any impact to this movie . This PG-13 film needed to be more intense, raw , & gritty , on the same level as the Bourne films - but is was mild , weak , and fake. Jennifer Lawrence has no chemistry with Josh Hutcherson , nor with Liam Hemsworth. Plus, the cinematography, the set pieces, and the camera work were hideous. I am sad to say this because, I am a fan of Gary Ross' " Pleasantville " and his screenplays.
I pretty much believe Daniel Day-Lewis will use up all the space in Ljncoln. Even Leo and Paul Dano were forgotten next to him. So I don’t think there’ll be any supporting nomination from that film.
From the film stays true to the script, Justin Timberlake will only appear for like 5 minutes in Inside Llewyn Dewis. Oscar Isaac is in all scenes. He’s surely the lead. Carey Mulligan has small roles, but she plays a pretty foul-mouthed woman.
If the streak continues, I believe Ben Affleck’s new film will produce another supporting nominee and that seems to be Bryan Cranston.
I freaking hope Penelope Cruz got nominated again for this Woody’s new film.
@wus Yes, I'm not saying critics are right, just that there is a consensus built around her performance in the movie. I actually agree with what you said about the movie, and that's what makes me appreciate her even more. She elevated a truly mediocre material to something decent imo. Without her it'd have been a disaster. ;)
cal roth
I'm keeping "On the Road" under my radar too...
Kirsten Dunst's role sounds interesting and a kind of a heart-breaking one and we all know how good Dunst's dramatic chops are and she was superb in "Melancholia", last year.
For some reason, I don't think Mortensen may have an Oscar-baity part in this one, but Garret Hedlund and specially Kristen Stewart may impress, in my opinion. When I watched the trailer I didn't saw the guy from Tron: Legacy or the girl from the crappy Twilight movies and it called my attentions. Let's be honest, Stewart is a decent actress when she has good material (she was great in "The Cake Eaters" and electrifying in "The Runaways" and "Welcome to the Rileys")
Pay attention to "On the Road", Nathaniel