"Silver Linings" Wins TIFF. Here's What It Means Statistically For Oscar.
Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 4:44PM 
The Toronto International Film Festival wraps up today (movies are still being projected, though, even as I type) and the awards are out. Silver Linings Playbook took the Audience Prize, which is usually a good sign for Oscar. 10 of the 34 past winners have gone on to Best Picture nominations with 4 eventually winning the top prize (The King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, American Beauty and Chariots of Fire). That group of 34 films also includes 1 Best Documentary Oscar winner and 9 Best Foreign Language Film nominees (5 of them eventual winners.) It's not fail safe of course. Last year's winner Where Do We Go Now? looked strong for Oscar foreign play but wasn't nominated and the previous winner's list includes various sixth-slotters like Amélie and Hotel Rwanda which didn't quite make their respective Best Picture lineups. But to make this long story much shorter this is the silver lining for Silver Linings come December; expect big golden things.
Other Winners...
Canadian Feature: Xavier Dolan's transsexual drama Laurence Anyways starring Melvil Poupad.
Canadian Directorial Debut: [TIE] Brandon Cronenberg's (Son Of David!) body horror drama Antiviral and Jason Buxton's teen violence drama Blackbird two chillers from up north.
Canadian Short: Keep a Modest Head by Deco Dawson
Brandon Cronenberg's debut features Sarah Gadon, his dad's current muse (A Dangerous Method / Cosmopolis).
FIPRESCI Prize Special Presentation: François Ozon's In the House which stars Kristin Scott Thomas as the wife of a French teacher (Fabrice Luchini) whose gifted teenage student is writing too intimately about the people in his life.
FIPRESCI Prize Discovery: Mikael Marsiman's Call Girl is based on the true story of a 1970s prostitution ring in Sweden.
Audience Award Documentary: Artifact finds Jared Leto's band "30 Seconds To Mars" battling their record label. More on this one soon.
Audience Award Midnight Madness: Seven Psychopaths from the singular comic talent Martin McDonagh
Asian Film: Sion Sono's Japanese tsunami survival drama The Land of Hope
THE LAND OF HOPE (The Impossible isn't the only tsunami drama out there)
TIFF hits that lost out included Sarah Polley's reportedly bewitching Stories We Tell and the two runners up to the big People's Choice prize: Ben Affleck's Argo (of which you're already as familiar as you can be without seeing the damn thing) and Eran Riklis' Zaytoun which is a war drama about an Israel fighter pilot (Stephen Dorff) shot down over Lebanon.
TIFF devotee we appreciate most: Amir.
TIFF virgin we're crazy jealous of: Nick.
TIFF fringe dweller who never even made it to Canada: Nathaniel... [sniffle]
For what it's worth expect much more festival coverage for NYFF (coming very soon). Michael Cusumano and I will both hit the fest and share our reactions right here.
Reader Comments (13)
Subtracting the Doc (even Fahrenheit 9/11 didn't pull a Pic nom), the TV film and the Foreign Language films and we've got a record of...12/21 of the English-Language non-doc theatrical release winners. So...considering what The Silver Linings Playbook is, it has about a 55% chance of a Best Pic nom.
I think Lawrence becomes THE youngest Best Actress winner ever,hit films,star making turn in The Hunger Games,hot,multiple nominee,single mom,De niro,box office,she has nearly it all going on.
Since this is a Weinstein film, it will be interesting to see whether TWC pushes it over its other prospects (including The Master) this season - it sounds as though it's the most Academy-friendly film they have this year.
Jennifer edges closer to Oscar.
The trailer for Antiviral looks so creepy! But very original...maybe it could garner some box office if it gets a decent release.
Front runner
And what about Juia Stiles ? She looks terrific ...Best supporting nomination please...
Mark--
If Jennifer Lawrence wins, she won't be the youngest Best Actress winner. She's already 22, and Marlee Matlin won for "Children of a Lesser God" when she was 21.
Liz N. is right, but she'll be the third youngest Best Actress Winner after Marlee Matlin and Janet Gaynor and she'll be the youngest actress to get two Best Actress Nominations
There's something about this Jennifer Lawrence buzz that I'm not buying. I'm sure she'll definitely get a nomination; I think Hunger Games secured that for her months ago. But actually winning? I feel as though Best Actress this year is shaping up to be one of those toss-up years, similar to 2001 (Halle vs. Sissy vs. Nicole vs. Judi; sorry, Renee) or 2007, where the frontrunner status see-sawed between Julie Christie and Marion Cotillard, but then there was Ellen Page, who surely could've taken it if people stopped insisting she was merely playing herself. This year I can imagine Keira, Marion, Quvenzhane, or maybe even Laura or Naomi taking Oscar home but not really Jennifer. They rarely award Best Actresses as young as her unless it's a mind-blowing debut performance or if she's had a lengthy career beforehand (i.e. Natalie, Reese).
@Matthew, I agree. She's getting the nomination, but I just dont see them rewaring her or Knightley this year. I'm prediciting a split between them with Watts taking it.
Scott Feinberg in his first predictions put Jessica Chastain as a lead actress - Maybe she could be a last minute entry and perhaps took the Oscar gold... Because I can't think another viable contender to compete against Lawrence:
-Cotillard won't win for another French language performance
-Knightley has the reviews for the nomination, but not for winning, she's still a polarizing actress and right now AK have a mediocre response at box office in UK. Also the film has a response a la Moulin Rouge!
-Watts has the film but she's still in the red line. She wasn't exactly to beloved by AMPAS and she was snubbed before with awardable vehicles like The Painted Veil, King Kong and Fair Game...
-Smith won't win a third Oscar especially after Streep.
-Wallis definitely is out of the prize for her age.
-Streep won't win a fourth Oscar for that film
-Riva is a relative unknown actress in a foreign language film and she faces internal competition against Cotillard for SPC favor
-Gerwig has IFC Films as distribuitor
-Winstead is almost dead without a huge response in TIFF
Right now, even at her age, Lawrence is a remarkable option for winning, but if Chastain is in the line with her, maybe we have a race between both of them...
@Leigh, how Knightley and Lawrence can make a split between them? Because Knightley isn't even locked by the nomination. A split could happen when we have a close race between two films, but even in that instance, is rarely to choose a third option. Adrien Brody was an exception, but even in close races like Davis-Streep, Clooney-Dujardin, Bullock-Streep... I didn't happen. Also is more factible with these kind of reviews than Lawrence has the biggest advantage of both...
It's Lawrence definitely.
I saw 'Silver Linings Playbook' last night at the Ryerson theatre. Lawrence is definitely getting a nomination and is the front runner at the moment. Though Bradley Cooper is very good in it, it's Lawrence that is walking away with this movie and the glowing reviews.
There's a scene in the movie in which her character owns it so totally and is so commandingly right on the money that the Ryerson theatre audience actually clapped out loud and cheered! This is the scene that will likely be the one used for her Academy Award nomination clip. I won't reveal any more as that I don't want to spoil this for others.
Like Leon said, she's actually got a lot going for her going into the awards race:
- young and good looking
- ability to carry film franchises and work in a multi-team one (Hunger Games, X-Men)
- has previous nomination, proving that the first one wasn't a fluke
- down to earth, approachable and self-deprecating (unlike Rooney Mara who was aloof, standoffish and had an entitlement attitude)
- if IMDB is to be believed, never had an acting class/lessons in her life; thus proving that she's a natural
The way things are now, I'd say it's Lawrence's race to loose and that she is the definite front runner.