Oscar's Acting Categories Take Shape. Or Do They?
Friday, November 14, 2014 at 3:45PM If you're an Oscar chart junkie, you'll see some key shifts on all four acting charts which are now updated. The biggest switcheroo is Jessica Chastain moving to Supporting Actress (the original prediction back in April) which shakes that field up more than it creates a vacuum with the Best Actress race and both Foxcatcher men dropping out of the predicted lead actor shortlist.
Papa, how can I be too high in rank to dine with the servants and too low to dine with my family?
Best Actress has been hard to suss out beyond two sure things: Julianne Moore as a professor with early on-set Alzheimers and Reese Witherspoon as a woman trying to forgive herself and start anew by hiking the PCT. Both of those films are major star vehicles in that they put their leading actress and her considerable gifts front and center without obstructed views. Gone Girl and The Theory of Everything also look somewhat likely to produce nominees but those are definitely two-lead films which Pike and Jones must share with their screen hubbies. On the podcast this weekend we'll talk more about this race because the field still seems wide open beyond those four names. And, if past years are any indication, one of them could surprisingly drop out. There are a lot of viable women hoping to unseat them, which makes "where are the best actress candidates?" articles in major outlets like THR and The Washington Post absolutely mystifying or ignorant or sexist or something. Something not right is the point. Particular maddening is that THR article which claims two dozen viable Best Actor candidates beyond the presumed frontrunners but will even list the most longshot of longshots like Eller Coltrane (Boyhood) and Al Pacino (The Humbling) and Kevin Costner (Black and White) -- none of which have any heat -- as "credible" contenders but can't think of ANY slightly under the radar women other than Jenny Slate (Obvious Child)? That's wearing some serious blinders to support your thesis. [more...]
You just have to look ever-so-slightly beyond traditional Oscar bait and you'll see a big swath of fine performances that would not be embarrassing were they to land Oscar nominations. Hell, you don't even have to look beyond traditional bait if you want to consider people like Swank (The Homesman), Adams (Big Eyes) or Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Belle). Several acclaimed women have a helluva lot better shot at it than Kevin Costner, you know? You can see plenty of them on the chart. Asking "where are the best actresses?" this late in a good film year is like shouting... "I never see 'women's pictures!' Gross"
Mine eyes have seen the glory! Glory glory glory...
Best Actor was shaken up, as I suspected it would be for a long time (I stupidly dropped him from my predicted list in October but otherwise he was there most of the year) by David Oyelowo's great orator mimicry in Selma. If they love the film - which I very much think they will - they'll nominate his MLK, no matter how tight the Best Actor race is. If you see beautiful Ava DuVernay crashing the usual old white man Best Director category, he could even win.
Watch out, Eddie!
-Let's just deal with this like gentlemen who understand each other please?
-NO. I need for us to treat each other like we're not gentlemen and that we're very very stupid."
Supporting Actor is clear to an extent. But not clear at all once you get past the obvious contenders (just like in Best Actress). My predicted field could be right on the mark but who knows? Beyond Norton & Simmons, anything might happen with a brilliant campaign from someone in some film. Tom Wilkinson in Selma is kind of my "why not, nothing else is happening" choice at the moment, since he has multiple exasperated President scenes and a really endearing character moment near the end. I'd put money on John Goodman's very showy supporting gig (what other kind does he get?) in The Gambler IF I thought the film had heat anywhere else. But John Goodman hasn't caught on with voters despite a lot of these showy supporting roles recently, sometimes in films with way more to recommend them than this one. Eager to hear your thoughts on this race in particular!
-What do you have?
-Something I'm fairly certain you'll be excited about.
Supporting Actress is just as cloudy since supporting races are so dependent on campaigns and overall Best Picture heat. I think it's going to be Arquette, Chastain, Knightley, Stone, and Streep but, honestly, pundits like myself are making a lot of assumptions about what might turn voters on if they claim certainty about the supporting categories. All it would take to really throw the presumptions out of whack is for Wild to gain steam when it opens (for Laura Dern's lovely maternal ghost), audiences and critics to be all over the place about who is "best" in Into the Woods (it could very well be Anna Kendrick), or for Jake Gyllenhaal or Julianne Moore or Selma's campaign's to win so much traction that they have surprise coattails (pulling Rene Russo, Kristen Stewart, or Carmen Ejogo in).
And so on...
It's always good to remember that a lot of the films expected to do well are either not open or just now hitting theaters (despite months of conversation in our weird award season distribution model), and no precursors have yet handed out their prizes. There are still many ways that the acting fields can be disrupted dramatically, or shift just enough to reveal that it didn't ever look like what people assumed they were seeing to begin with.
What's your craziest theory in any category?
What questions would you ask the podcast panel for this weekend's Best Actress chat?
Reader Comments (64)
Pam - i'm going to the DGA screening of Into the Woods with, apparently, the whole cast. Exciting.
As for what screeners AMPAS voters get the answer is: a lot but not all. Some movies don't send out screeners till after nominations if at all. And different screeners go to different groups. BFCA seems to get most of them but sometimes not at convenient times (and a lot less this year so far at least) Last year no screeners for Wolf of Wall Street. But AMPAS voters generally have several screenings they can attend in multiple cities and they can also go to regular theatrical screenings (at least they used to be able to) and get in free during voting season - i assume theaters reimbursed by the Academy.
Nathaniel - Any Indie Spirit Awards predictions this year?
I don't know what you guys are talking about. Shirley MacLaine is going to sweep with all the awards. That Aurora is a keeper!
19th nomination for Streep!! Looking at the trailer and listening to the soundtrack samples- she is going to kill in this role. Wish she was going lead but supporting seems to be right.
With Ricki and the Flash and now the Florence movie- I think she will reach 20 nominations by 2020.
Pam - It embarrasses me that I keep forgetting Le Weekend.
Nathaniel - Funny how I committed automatic category fraud in my head with Hathaway, because I actually consider her to be the female lead of Interstellar.
Having seen a preview I would be more comfortable if you weren't including any of the actresses in Into the Woods in your top five.
Tsk, tsk, billybil.
I think Streep will reach 20 nominations by 2016. We should just reserve a Best Actress spot now for Ricki and the Flash, right?
Also, Evan - the screenwriters' branch is not like the cinematographers' branch. They nominate first-timers all the time, which is part of the reason there are so many screenwriting nominees in this year's race. Last year they nominated Bob Nelson (for Nebraska) and the Dallas Buyer's Club writers over the Coen brothers. This year they might very well nominate the newcomer who wrote the Sundance Audience and Grand Jury Award Winner over the guy who was nominated a decade ago for Capote, the Nolan brothers, and Wes Anderson, who, much as I love him, is probably going to suffer from early release date amnesia.
A few weeks ago this race looked so boring and now it's like WOW!!
Gugu and Gena Rowlands are my picks for spoilers in Best Actress.
Intesteller will be shut out of the acting noms....ditto Gambler and Big Eyes.
Into the Woods is very iffy. Streep will probably be nomed, but everything hangs on the end product and how people react to it. It would be a kick if Ullman turned out to be best in show.
I could see Cooper sneak into Best Actor. Especially if he gets good notices for Elephant Man.
Selma will figure heavily.
I don't even care if she's mediocre in the movie, all I care about is Julianne winning a frigging Oscar already.
Suzanne- yes and that's why I don't hesitate in predicting Selma for Original Screenplay. But Whiplash I doubt. I just don't hear folks talking about it outside of Oscar predictions. Maybe I'm wrong. Totally possible, but that's what my gut tells me.
As a random aside, I'm pretty sure there's only one person in the world who has seen either The Toy Soldiers or Joe and he's a regular poster on this blog.
I am curious but Marion in 2 Days 1 Night and Laura Dern in Wild. Are they truly brilliant performances ??? Could they get in?
Evan -- i have actually never heard of Toy Soldiers outside of the comments section of this blog so the profile must be very low.
BlueMoon -- Marion is brilliant. I personally don't think they gave Dern much to do in Wild but she provides a very important warm maternal ghost presence. My guess is if the film gets a Best Picture nod, she's also in.