Oscar's Acting Categories Take Shape. Or Do They?
Friday, November 14, 2014 at 3:45PM If you're an Oscar chart junkie, you'll see some key shifts on all four acting charts which are now updated. The biggest switcheroo is Jessica Chastain moving to Supporting Actress (the original prediction back in April) which shakes that field up more than it creates a vacuum with the Best Actress race and both Foxcatcher men dropping out of the predicted lead actor shortlist.
Papa, how can I be too high in rank to dine with the servants and too low to dine with my family?
Best Actress has been hard to suss out beyond two sure things: Julianne Moore as a professor with early on-set Alzheimers and Reese Witherspoon as a woman trying to forgive herself and start anew by hiking the PCT. Both of those films are major star vehicles in that they put their leading actress and her considerable gifts front and center without obstructed views. Gone Girl and The Theory of Everything also look somewhat likely to produce nominees but those are definitely two-lead films which Pike and Jones must share with their screen hubbies. On the podcast this weekend we'll talk more about this race because the field still seems wide open beyond those four names. And, if past years are any indication, one of them could surprisingly drop out. There are a lot of viable women hoping to unseat them, which makes "where are the best actress candidates?" articles in major outlets like THR and The Washington Post absolutely mystifying or ignorant or sexist or something. Something not right is the point. Particular maddening is that THR article which claims two dozen viable Best Actor candidates beyond the presumed frontrunners but will even list the most longshot of longshots like Eller Coltrane (Boyhood) and Al Pacino (The Humbling) and Kevin Costner (Black and White) -- none of which have any heat -- as "credible" contenders but can't think of ANY slightly under the radar women other than Jenny Slate (Obvious Child)? That's wearing some serious blinders to support your thesis. [more...]
You just have to look ever-so-slightly beyond traditional Oscar bait and you'll see a big swath of fine performances that would not be embarrassing were they to land Oscar nominations. Hell, you don't even have to look beyond traditional bait if you want to consider people like Swank (The Homesman), Adams (Big Eyes) or Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Belle). Several acclaimed women have a helluva lot better shot at it than Kevin Costner, you know? You can see plenty of them on the chart. Asking "where are the best actresses?" this late in a good film year is like shouting... "I never see 'women's pictures!' Gross"
Mine eyes have seen the glory! Glory glory glory...
Best Actor was shaken up, as I suspected it would be for a long time (I stupidly dropped him from my predicted list in October but otherwise he was there most of the year) by David Oyelowo's great orator mimicry in Selma. If they love the film - which I very much think they will - they'll nominate his MLK, no matter how tight the Best Actor race is. If you see beautiful Ava DuVernay crashing the usual old white man Best Director category, he could even win.
Watch out, Eddie!
-Let's just deal with this like gentlemen who understand each other please?
-NO. I need for us to treat each other like we're not gentlemen and that we're very very stupid."
Supporting Actor is clear to an extent. But not clear at all once you get past the obvious contenders (just like in Best Actress). My predicted field could be right on the mark but who knows? Beyond Norton & Simmons, anything might happen with a brilliant campaign from someone in some film. Tom Wilkinson in Selma is kind of my "why not, nothing else is happening" choice at the moment, since he has multiple exasperated President scenes and a really endearing character moment near the end. I'd put money on John Goodman's very showy supporting gig (what other kind does he get?) in The Gambler IF I thought the film had heat anywhere else. But John Goodman hasn't caught on with voters despite a lot of these showy supporting roles recently, sometimes in films with way more to recommend them than this one. Eager to hear your thoughts on this race in particular!
-What do you have?
-Something I'm fairly certain you'll be excited about.
Supporting Actress is just as cloudy since supporting races are so dependent on campaigns and overall Best Picture heat. I think it's going to be Arquette, Chastain, Knightley, Stone, and Streep but, honestly, pundits like myself are making a lot of assumptions about what might turn voters on if they claim certainty about the supporting categories. All it would take to really throw the presumptions out of whack is for Wild to gain steam when it opens (for Laura Dern's lovely maternal ghost), audiences and critics to be all over the place about who is "best" in Into the Woods (it could very well be Anna Kendrick), or for Jake Gyllenhaal or Julianne Moore or Selma's campaign's to win so much traction that they have surprise coattails (pulling Rene Russo, Kristen Stewart, or Carmen Ejogo in).
And so on...
It's always good to remember that a lot of the films expected to do well are either not open or just now hitting theaters (despite months of conversation in our weird award season distribution model), and no precursors have yet handed out their prizes. There are still many ways that the acting fields can be disrupted dramatically, or shift just enough to reveal that it didn't ever look like what people assumed they were seeing to begin with.
What's your craziest theory in any category?
What questions would you ask the podcast panel for this weekend's Best Actress chat?
Reader Comments (64)
DUVALL is in… it’s just that kind of role from that kind of actor that this category time again proves to honor. And WB is already pushing out the glossy FYC ads highlighting his most Oscar-baity scenes. Plus he’s the kind of contender who can ultimately sneak in without ANY precursor support. Even if they’ve cooled (slightly) on freely handing over the actual trophy to the old vet out of sentiment, they still nominate them. Voight (00), Newman (02), Alda (04), Hurt (05), Jones (07 lead), Nolte & Sydow (11), All that said, I hope I’m wrong.
I don't have any best actress questions... But if I can get a pronunciation of Oyelowo from you guys, it would help me going forward.
(I was the first of my friends to speak the name Chiwetel Ejiofor freely last year, and I owe to y'all.)
Ryan, I can see Duvall. He's so consistently good that even without seeing his movie, it's nearly inconceivable to think that if he gets nommed he doesn't deserve it. He's the old dude behind the counter who's never given us ham on wry.
I'm pulling for Gyllenhaul's career best turn to be nominated. But that 5th
Slot is really up for grabs...
Good heavens, I can't imagine Kristen Stewart being nominated for any acting award that's not the MTV Movie Awards.
Wait, no. The People's Choice Award and the Kids' Choice Awards too.
I still am predicting Jack O'Connell to squeeze in Best Actor. His work in the first trailer looked so good. But if not him, Carell. Definitely not Gyllenhaal, even though I consider myself a huge Gyllenhaalic.
I also think folks are dramatically underestimating Wild's chances. From what I've gleaned online, it's an inspiring travelogue (firmly within the Oscar wheelhouse) starring an award-winning actress (who most people love) directed by the guy whose last film was a surprise late Best Picture entrant (and may have been as high as fifth or sixth in the Best Picture race) that won two acting Oscars. I think it'll be an Oscar hit. If so, I think Dern could bump out Stone.
Looks like the reviews/reactions for Big Eyes are better than what we expected. Amy Adams got good notices. I think she's in. Harvey is not going to let B list actresses like Blunt (even though I like her I still don't think she's going to make it) and Swank get in before his Amy.
Evan, I think WILD is very good so i'm surprised at its lack of buzz beyond reese to tell you the truth.
no traction for Anne Dorval?
Mike in Canada-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRUDAANM6_o
If Geofrey Rush is to be trusted at the 3 minute mark, David's name is quite phonetic: uh-YELL-uh-whoa.
Nathaniel, thanks, I was looking forward to this update. Stellar predictions, both on first and second tier. It's nitpicking, but I think you should swap Chadwick Boseman and Jack O'Connell.
I simply don't understand how John Goodman can still have 0 nominations. Jeff Bridges still basks in Dude-afterglow, but no love for Walter?! Every year I root for him to leave the Never Nominated club.
The other question on my mind at the moment: if Duvernay gets in Director as some are now saying, that would make it tougher for Chazelle to get in. Is Whiplash really going to be nominated for Best Picture with only a Supporting Actor nomination to go along with it?
I know it's happened before, but that just doesn't sound right.
Shawls hank - who is Walter?
Evan, WHIPLASH will get five - pic, dir, supp actor, screenplay and editing.
Haven't even seen SELMA (obviously) and I'm pulling for it. Good grief, is this a white line-up or what? And seeing Deveurnay (and Jolie?) would be quite something.
Yay, Arquette is where she belongs, in the top spot!
I hope you can elaborate on that Sally Kirkland movie you have listed under "other" on the Best Actress page...
G.Shaq - Mommy is not eligible since it didn't get released. just in foreign film.
My off-the-wall predix for surprises in the Big 6:
Best Picture: no Unbroken
Best Actor: one of the British Invasion's Fab Four—Cumberbatch, Oyelowo, Redmayne, Spall) will be replaced by Miles Teller (an American Ringo on drums, as it were)
Best Actress: Gugu gets in
Best Supporting Actress & Actor: McCarthy & Lieberher from St. Vincent
Best Director: no to Jolie but yes to DuVernay
Maybe I am over thinking this but, Julianne Moore and Amy Adams for best actress, Benedict Cumberbatch and Eddie Redmayne for best actor, Jessica Chastain and Emma Stone for best supporting actress. Can this be possible? Maybe after all orange is the new black.
Swank is more of a threat as usual than people think,remember her 2010 Actress nom,actors like her.
Got a pic of Michael Caine over John Goodman's name on Best Supporting Actor
Any chance for Agata Kulesza in supporting category? Maybe a little motivation for voters, Nathaniel?
Interesting that Best Supporting Actress is far more competitive than Best Actress this year. I think Arquette, Streep, and Knightley are locked, with Stone looking good and Stewart, Ejogo, Dern, and Chastain fighting for the last spot.
I hope Chastain can get nominated after the great year she's had, but I have serious doubts about her film getting seen (whereas voters will definitely be watching Selma, Still Alice, and Wild). There's also the issue that she can't campaign for AMVY.
I think A24 would have been much better off holding the film until 2015 and releasing it in the summer or early fall. With early screeners, Chastain could have established herself as a sure nominee and maybe a threat to win.
(psst! John Goodman looks a lot like Michael Caine in that Supporting Actor list.)
I think Shailene and Rosamund have a very good shot at nominations, as those are two of the most popular and talked about female performances of the year in the mainstream.
I would love to see Jakey Poo get than nomination for "Nightcrawler". He really was very good and not, well, Jakey Poo at all!.
I still think Keaton's going to win Best Actor.
Glenn- I see that Nathaniel is predicting five nominations for Whiplash, but I dunno about that.
Whiplash with a screenplay nomination over four of the following six: The Grand Budapest Hotel, Selma, Mr. Turner, Foxcatcher, A Most Violent Year, and Interstellar? All of those except for Selma were written by an Oscar nominee.
An editing nomination over Birdman, Unbroken, and Selma?
Anyway, perhaps that counts as my "off-the-wall" prediction: Whiplash gets mostly forgotten.
Steve Carrell has received solid if not stellar reviews for Foxcatcher, a baity role in a high profile film, whereas Gyllenhaal, though with a career-best performance, always seems to be an also-ran with Academy voters. And here's hoping Rene Russo squeaks in a nomination -- such consistently great performer but sadly unawarded.
My question about best actress is what is the hook for Jones'lock? I've seen the movie and she's good but not very memorable, is just bec supp wife is atype they go for? .... does she even have an oscar clip? What makes that performance stick in memory for another 8 weeks. I'm surprised she's thought of as Moore's challenger considerig her low profile with AMPAS.
Although the official release date in the U.S. is January 23, I believe that Mommy will have a one-week qualifying run sometime in December. Roadside Attractions (which has acquired the U.S. rights) has a ''For Your Consideration'' ad for it: http://roadsideawards.com/mommy/for-your-consideration/. If there is a qualifying run for that picture, Anne Dorval should definitely be shortlisted!
If Julianne Moore wins the Oscar I swear I'll never complain about anything Oscar related, everQ Just make this happen!
P.S. I haven't seen the movie so I have no idea how good she is in it .... but!
A Most Violent Year is being released at the last minute (Dec 31st, Chastain is prohibited from campaigning for it, and it's distributed by A24, which has never produced an Oscar nominee) so I don't see how Chastain would remotely be #2 with so little going for her . AMVY is a small indie. Laura Dern is campaigning her ass off and being sold as a twofer with Reese.
Amy Adams is going to be taken out of the running with Big Eyes poor critical reception, so that leaves the strength of Into the Woods in question, right now I think Hilary Swank will get in over Blunt and Adams.
A Most Violent Year is being released at the last minute (Dec 31st, Chastain is prohibited from campaigning for it, and it's distributed by A24, which has never produced an Oscar nominee) so I don't see how Chastain would remotely be #2 with so little going for her . AMVY is a small indie. Laura Dern is campaigning her ass off and being sold as a twofer with Reese.
Amy Adams is going to be taken out of the running with Big Eyes poor critical reception, so that leaves the strength of Into the Woods in question, right now I think Hilary Swank will get in over Blunt and Adams.
I haven't seen Moore's or Witherspoon's films yet but my two faves for best actres are 2 women who each gave us 2 fantastic performances in one year. Maron Cotillard, surely the best thing in movies nowadays, in The Immigrant and Two Days One Night. I didn't think she could top Rust and Bone but top it she did. And twice over.
Gugu Mbatha Raw, a major movie star is born. Showing range playing a sorta Austeesque romantic heroine (Belle) and a modern Rihanna/Beyone/Alicia Keys/Sade hybrid in Beyond the Lights.
Some questions for the podcast… for anyone who’s seen “A Most Violent Year” how egregious is the category fraud? Any chance of AMPAS voters pulling a Winslet/ “Reader” on us?
Also, can Moore really win this thing? How will her “Game Change” awards season lap just two years ago factor in? Right now my big fear is the Globes give it to Reese and then everyone else follows suit.
And is Aniston truly a threat for a nom?
Can I just say I’m excited for Pike’s nom in the sense of Amy Dunne being added to the pantheon of Oscar-endorsed leading female roles. I mean, it was such a shame Suzanne Stone and (to a lesser degree) Catherine Trammell couldn’t join the likes of Phyllis Dietrichson and Alex Forrest.
... EXACTLY seesaw
My No Guts No Glory prediction is that Naomi Watts gets in Best Supporting Actress for Birdman. Haven't seen the film yet but I've read quite a few people comment that they didn't like Emma Stone in it, and that Watts gave the best female performance in the film. Also as Nathaniel wrote, she is an actress playing an actress.
Lola- from what I heard, Chastain is only prohibited from campaigning for it through early December. There would still be time to get out there before Oscar voting commences, not to mention that she's already doing the circuit for Interstellar (which some crossover discussion surely occurs) and the campaigning prohibition has already earned significant publicity for the movie.
As far as A24 never producing an Oscar nominee, the company is only a year old! Give the folks a break!
Why don't mention to Marion Cotillard with Two Days, One Night. She is Oscar-worthy, her performance is Oscar-worthy, is wonderful, magnificent, brilliant and superb. She's so amazing in the film and deserves the awards nominations and of course the Oscar nomination. Please Nathaniel, put more attention on Marion, because she really deserves it.
This year seems ... slim? Yes to Julianne Moore! The other contenders are underwhelming. Will Into the Woods simply be unwrapped on Christmas Day, or will it screen before? That is the movie I am most curious about. Let it be great. Thank you Nathaniel for continued good work on behalf of cinema.
As I've mentioned before, we seem to be getting a lot of possible first-time nominees. I love that, but it's also great that we seem to be getting a lot of actors who haven't been nominated in a long time. Last time Edward Norton was nominated was 1998 (for American History X), so it will be great to have him back, and also excited to see Reese Witherspoon finally getting a post-Oscar nomination (I always look out for those). This is exciting, since two years ago we had a line-up with all previous winners and only four first-timers (out of 20) and last year we almost had another line-up with all previous winners (which thankfully became four out of five), so it will be a treat to have a year where we have a lot of first-timers and quite a few who are due for another nomination, even a win (2011 was one of very few years where we only had two previous winners among the acting nominees, even though one of those two picked up another trophy)...
Here's a question (for the podcast): How does Anne Hathaway not get included in the list of 25+ Supporting Actress candidates? I just saw Interstellar and was pleasantly surprised by all of the acting, but Miss Hathaway was a standout for me throughout the film.
Not an acting category but my random prediction is everyone will assume Jolie is getting a directing nod and then she will be the shocking snub come nomination time. If that directing branch didn't like Affleck with Argo, I could totally see them not wanting to nominate Jolie.
Nathaniel, I know you don't like to answer these questions, but who do you foresee winning in each race?
I've got a couple no guts no glory predictions out of nowhere everybody will think I'm on crack, but here goes:
Best Actress: Jeanette Mae Steiner "The Toy Soldiers and
Robyn Buck for her mesmerizing performance in " Hard Sun both get best actress mom's
Supporting Actress
Najarra Townsend gets nominated for "The Toy Soldiers"
Best Actor I'm hoping for Gerard Depardieu for "Welcome To NY and Nicolas Cage for " Joe" get best actor mom's
Supporting Actor John Lithgow or Alfred Molina get nominated for "Love is Strange"
Nathaniel how come there's really no Brie Larson this year?? What I mean is no performance that just comes out of nowhere and is in the conversation???
After seeing Two Days, One Night and Mommy I don't think that the Best Actress category is slim. It would be a crime if they overlook the acting in these two movies, especially Mommy. Anne Dorval and Suzanne Clement deserve to be notices.
I haven't seen Still Alice but there were some great scenes with Julianne Moore showed at the Hollywood Awards (or whatever they are called). I am sure that she will be given the Oscar finally. And I will cheer and someone else said - I will stop complaining after she wins :)
Marion Cotillard was magnificent in "Two Days, One Night", but I guess she won't campaign at the end. She returned to France last weekend and there's no word of campaign until US release. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2829528/Marion-Cotillard-hides-Pharrell-style-hat-trip-airport.html. So she's probably out of contention.
Let's hope Roadside Attractions make a better work with Dorval if a niche candidate is possible..
Jono - Into the Woods is screening on 11/22/14 for the academy. But there
is an embargo on reviews until some unknown date (anyone know when that embargo lifts ???)
Jono & Mark - - I'm screening Into the Woods on 11/22 but the embargo doesn't lift until 12/19. Not that people will obey it.
David -- i don't think that happens much anymore in general with every website that's ever existed now featuring oscar columns and everyone looking to unearth "under the radar" possibilities so they can claim "first!"
Justin - that assumption about Jolie has been super weird for me all season because it's totally sight unseen and her previous directing gig didn't exactly set the world on fire.
Paul - it was my understanding that she was being FYCed in Best Actress so i listed her on the "others" on that chart instead. But maybe they'll change that.
Nathaniel- Just curious and you may have answered this query in other years. Do AMPAS voters get screeners for all movies that come out, and if so, when? How is it bloody possible for a non-critic to see all these newly released films before nominations are due? For your viewing of Into the Woods, are you going to a critics' screening, or are you getting a "screener"?
I would love to see Lindsay Duncan and Jim Broadbent get something for Le Week-End, but it's not going to happen.