Oscar Prediction Updates. 10 Questions
Monday, November 17, 2014 at 11:04AM It's a participatory round! The Oscar Charts are updated in every category but here are ten questions that are on my mind. Try to answer them (or at least some of them) in the comments.
01. Why am I the only pundit that has faith in Jake Gyllenhaal as a Best Actor nominee?
Many many people were more than wow'ed by his work. I realize that as a non-recovering Gyllenhaalic for many years now my wildcard prediction will be thought of as Wishful Thinking but I've heard so much negativity about Foxcatcher that I'm starting to think only Ruffalo makes it. That makes room for other leading contenders to rise if Carell and Channing are weaker than expected.
02. Can Ava DuVernay and Damien Chazelle both really score Best Director nods?
The Academy has been notoriously standoffish about female directors. But has the tide turned with all the attention that's been paid to that factoid? Will they admire her grasp of a large canvas or is she still too much of an outsider? Is passion for Whiplash growing or levelling off? I hear it brought up at every industry party like "oh, I LOVED that movie." Or will a Screenplay nomination have to do for 2nd time young director Damian Chazelle? If you think they're missing who do you think would be there instead?
03. Is it insane that I have Birdman leading the nomination tally with 9?
Divisive formally ingeniuous showbiz meta pictures aren't exactly the norm for the Academy but neither are there all that many of them made. For nominations, passion counts for a lot with #1 placements. If you don't think it's Birdman, what do you think will lead the pack on Nomination Morning?
04. If Whiplash is not the 5 nomination Best Picture threat that I think it is, does that mean Supporting Actor is an actual race?
Or do you think J.K. Simmons' name engrave on a statue is going to happen regardless? Confession: So rooting for either Ruffalo or Norton to finally win.
Selma's cinematography. Most of it isn't this showy.
05. Can Bradford Young finally get an Oscar nod for Cinematography?
Or will his work on Selma and A Most Violent Year split his support within that branch?
06. What do you think of TFE's predictions for the Foreign Film 9-wide Finalist List?
Too strong? Too weak? Just right? Which country do you think absolutely shouldn't be underestimated right now?
06. Will anyone remember Dawn of the Planet of the Apes?
That was such a big critical and audience deal this summer and it seems like a likely contender in several categories. But is anyone talking about it? Or will it end up like its predecessor with only a Visual Effects nomination despite its incredible Production Design and so on.
08. Who do you want to see performing our Original Song nominees?
I'm just throwing darts at this category because god only knows with the music branch. Is even "Lost Stars" safe since they regularly shun presumed powerhouses in the category?
09. Interstellar's Reviews Mean...?
We know that some major directors admire it but Nolan has still not been nominated for Best Director. Does the mixed response mean this is closer to The Dark Knights Rises Oscar nomination tally (0) or Inception's (8)
10. Which movie do you think lands the most Oscar nods without a corresponding Best Picture placement?
I suspect that's going to be either Into the Woods, Interstellar or Grand Budapest Hotel depending of course on which doesn't make the list and how many Best Picture nominees we actually get. It can't really be 9 films every year!
Reader Comments (45)
I have a feeling Into the Woods will be that rare late entry to snag a best picture nom...
Is it me or something else, because why aren't folks (except the teens in my house) talking about Lorde's Yellow Flicker Beat as Original Song from MOCKINGJAY PART 1? Is it not original, or not good enough? I quite like it.
02. God, I really hope so. and I hope Prince-Bythewood's film breaks some box office records too.
03. I'm with you on BIRDMAN.
I'll answer a few:
06. I think people are overestimating Two Days, One Night in foreign language film. Yes, it has Marion Cotillard but is this extremely understated film really going to grab the voters? They haven't warmed to the Dardennes before. I have a suspicion that it won't be nominated, maybe not even make the shortlist. I also think The Way He Looks has a better chance than people think. It's such a sweet crowdpleaser.
07. Unfortunately I think DOTPA wil only get a visual effects nod.
08. I would love to see Keira and/or Adam Levin perform "Lost Stars", or Gugu Mbatha-Raw singing something from Beyond the Lights.
09. Interstellar will probably get a healthy number of nominations. I'm thinking it's going to get 5 at least.
10. Probably Interstellar.
If they want to reward the wonderful Mark Ruffalo, why not a Supporting Actor nomination for Begin Again, instead of Foxcatcher?
Begin Again is a warm appealing movie with Ruffalo in top form, while Foxcatcher seems to come across as glum and slow. (Yes, Ruffalo could be considered a co-lead in Begin Again, but...and I'd love to have more musicals and comedies on the slate).
I thought Ruffalo was the worst part of "Begin Again", which I generally loved. (He mellows out by the end, but that cartoon drunk act at the start is rough going.) I want good things for "Begin Again", but "Foxcatcher" has got to be the more nominatable performance just on prestige factor alone.
Will the voter bloc for HER embrace INHERENT VICE?
Dave S - I'm with you on Ruffalo in Begin Again. I thought he was terrible for a huge chunk of that movie. I'm a Ruffalo fan, so that was tough to watch.
1 - I think that once you start to doubt Carrel, you're basically throwing a dart. Gyllenhaal has as much of a chance as Oscar Isaac, Ralph Fiennes, Bradley Cooper, and a number of other contenders. I'm looking forward to seeing how Actor and Supporting Actor fill out, since they both have that going on.
2- Director is super-weird this year, too. Linklater, Inarritu, and...? Either new talent or establishment working in Oscar-unlikely ways.
4- I hope it's a race, but Simmons feels like such a sure thing. The way that Christopher Plummer did a few years back, but with a scenery-chewing role.
Love the idea of this post, and so I'll take a crack at all ten...
1. Gyllenhaal is still young for this category (particularly in a year where they're already going young) and if last year is any indication, the actors branch isn't shopping much outside Best Picture. Oyelowo, Redmayne, Spall, Keaton, and Cumberbatch seems incredibly plausible even if you throw out Carell.
2. No-I think that you're underestimating Jolie/Eastwood, and Chazelle at the very least falls into only screenplay.
3. It'd be insane to assume it's winning the most-leading the nominations makes sense considering those production credits.
4. Regardless of its place in Best Picture, Simmons is winning the trophy. It's exactly what they look for in that category: over fifty and white, co-lead, and ACTING.
5. I think he just misses again. Von Hoytema, Pope, Lubezki, Deakins, and Delhomme seem like a pretty plausible lineup.
6. This seems about right-it's always risky to underestimate France, but they haven't really been a "default" nominee in a decade now.
7. I'm doubting it-maybe it could sneak into a Sound category if everyone remembers how much money it made, but they're both oddly competitive this year.
8. Who can tell with that category. Is there a sequel to Alone Yet Not Alone? Together Yet Not Together?
9. It's out of the Best PIcture race, but it's still in most of the tech categories.
10. My gut says Interstellar-just missing Best PIcture causing the internet to complain despite Nolan's film getting 5-6 citations.
1. I'd love to see it happen, and there's precedent, but it's on the edge.
2. Chazelle strikes me as a Ben Zeitlin situation. New talent with big film, although the box office doesn't appear to be there for the film, which suggests it's not expanding beyond film cultists. Also, the film has an original screenplay - the short was merely one scene plucked from the feature screenplay in order to get money. Or, I think that's how it goes.
3. Not crazy. Now that INTERSTELLAR appears to be falling by the wayside, there's no other film that can get a high tally in both the technical arena and the more traditional big categories.
4. JK Simmons strikes me as a Renee Zellweger type. Even if the film doesn't quite reach best picture, doesn't it just seem like he will win?
5. No comment as I haven't seen SELMA or A MOST VIOLENT YEAR.
6. I'm think the executive commitee has to save MOMMY and WINTER SLEEP just to save face. I'm thinking the race will ultimately be between IDA and FORCE MAJEURE (but MOMMY seems to be hitting at a good time and people like Jessica Chastain are fans) so if it makes it in, I think it could be a threat. TIMBUKTU, I think, will be nominated, but hard to see it winning when it won't receive any release at all.
7. Seems unlikely. However, with INTERSTELLAR falling, maybe the APES could actually win this time (being beaten by HUGO the first time was so silly).
8. For those mentioning BEYOND THE LIGHTS, I think the song they're gonna push for is the one penned by Diane Warren which is actually sung by Rita Ora, not Gugu Mbatha-Raw. I wonder if the one she sings, "Blackbird", would be eligible given it riffs on the Nina Simone tracks. The other original, "Masterpiece", is deliberately awful...
9. Some technical nomintions, but Nolan as director ain't happening (again), and screenplay/picture look iffier by the day.
10. Probably INTO THE WOODS, but I'm actually leaning towards it getting in at the moment. The lack of behemoths sorta makes me think if it's good it'll get in. BIRDMAN will do well, obvioiusly, but will never be a blockbuster. And INTERSTELLAR is, as we've established, maybe not in the best of shape...
My answers:
1. Well, I guess it's because 'Nightcrawler' is too much of a below-the-radar choice. Yet, for every John Hawkes that doesn't make it, a Demian Bichir does.
Nevertheless Nathaniel I'm sensing a consensus forming around 'Whiplash' that will make it grab the same slots that 'Beasts of the Southern Wild' did in its year: Actor, Director, Screenplay, Picture.
2. And that above answers your question. I believe Chazelle is the fifth nominee, alongside fellow BP directors Tyldum, Innaritu and Linklater. The last spot will be up for grabs depending on whether Selma catches frontrunner status (Duvernay is in) or not (Fincher in). Nolan is out. If Affleck didn't happen, so won't Jolie.
3. You're right about Birdman. Innaritu, Lubezki, innovative score, all the technicals seem in great shape and it has a killer cast of well-respected actors, both thespians and vets. Stone is a good draw for the youth sector.
4. JK Simmons has it wrapped up. It'll be another Octavia Spencer-like lovefest. Last time someone like him missed, it was Albert Brooks and Whiplash is no Drive - as in, they'll actually watch Whiplash. And there is no Christopher Plummer at age 82 to steal the crown.
5. Cinematography is rough. Maybe if Selma is an across-the-board hit... But he has a showier possibility in A Most Violent Year which can lead to vote-splitting and if 12 Years A Slave couldn't pull a cinematography nod... Plus, the year is crowding up with familiar names (Cronenweth, Lubezki, Beebe, Elswit, Deakins, Pope) plus BP nominees like The Imitation Game or Theory of Everything and the Nolan factor (they love his technicals) AND there's Ida which is B/W which they LOVE LOVE LOVE...
6. I'd say you're right except for Two Days, One Night. I'd take it out and one between Leviathan or Mommy will get in - simply because I believe one of them will be handpicked by the commitee.
7. One or two nominations and that's it.
8. They should be song by whoever sings them in the movie. So that means Adam Levine, Keira Knightley, John Legend & Common, Tegan & Sara and Ed Sheeran?
9. I think it will get the mandatory Nolan technicals. It wasn't close to the level of disaster that was The Dark Knight Rises.
10. I feel like it'll be Unbroken. I believe it'll get a lot of technicals but nothing major - maybe a supporting actor nomination for Miyavi.
#1: I agree with your thinking on Foxcatcher but not sure Jake will get in.
#2. One or the other should get in, but not both. It's a newcomer versus established thing. I think Ava has a better chance.
#3. Birdman could very well get nine. Everything depends on Keaton and if he can keep his ego in check.
#6. Turkey will make the final 9 and possibly the final 5.
#7(6). No. No one will remember it for anything except tech.
#8. I want to see the original performer sing the original song. They earned the nomination, they should get the glory.
#9. The reviews mean it will get some tech notices, but that is all. Perhaps a best pic. The sound issues alone will knock it out of most races.
#10.Either Dawn of the Apes or Intersteller. All of them in tech. Or perhaps Guardians.
Not sure about the others and as much as it would be great for Mark Ruffalo to finally be rewarded the same holds true for JK Simmons. A wonderful actor who even more than Ruffalo has consistently been terrific without a great deal of acknowledgement.
Jorge: But then again, how COULD Interstellar be as bad as Rises? Most of Rises big picture failures (and those failures are MASSIVE) were driven by the team's gross and shocking level of ignorance of every meticulous piece of their own thematic and narrative continuity. Lets take the "John Blake reveals he knows Bruce Wayne is Batman" scene as a microcosm.
1. He reveals he knows that Bruce Wayne is Batman. (Okay.)
2. He reveals that the reason he knows is because, pretty much, he stared into his soul. (You'll note that this is in spite of the fact of the previous movie setting up Coleman Reese as, at the very least, a thread to pull.)
3. Bruce doesn't call him on his "reason" being a naked hunch. (Really?)
Villain choice is provably wrong as well. (And yes, Nolan's series making a villain choice provably wrong is their own darn fault.) Joker had a line at the end of the prior movie that only exists to confirm what the right villain choice would have been for this finale. "You know, they'll be doubling up the cells at the rate this city's inhabitants are losing their minds." The dialogue flows naturally, but it's still a pretty big flag of the road the sequel would have taken if Ledger lived, and that road? Oh no, they gonna rock down to, H.Q Avenue, and then they'll take it higher! (Sorry if that got Electric Avenue in everyone's heads.) But with that route gone (Without Joker usable and with Ivy way too fantastical for Nolan's universe, Harley is completely off the table), Nolan should have bit the bullet and worked to realize two of the last Gotham Rogues that he could have gotten play out of in his hyper-realistic playground. My suggestions? 1. Golden Age Clayface. It'd involve the jettisoning of everything artists love about rendering him, but does "literal clay creature" sound like a Christopher Nolan thing? 2. Black Mask. The origin is batty enough to be stylish, but not so fantastical as to completely alienate Nolan. I know they're not as "big" options as Bane or Talia are, but Nolan painted himself into a narrative corner where, because they aren't from Gotham, BANE AND TALIA SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN OPTIONS TO BEGIN WITH.
1. Surprised no one has said this - too weird! I wouldn't be surprised if it's the best performance I see this year, but it's an odd movie that skews towards younger adults who appreciate the dark humor. We're already asking them to swallow Keaton's darkly comedic turn, and they'll do it because Birdman is about them. The Academy voter is artistic white male 60 year old, aka "Cool Grandpa." He likes his biopics because he thinks they're important. He'll love Boyhood because it's basically about a younger version of him. He'll read about Nightcrawler and just think it's weird. I'd love to see a Globe nod (are they going comedy?) but I don't expect more. As you've said before, the category's too busy.
2. It's possible, but I doubt it. I'd be really surprised if Linklater, Inarritu or Miller (an Academy favorite whose features will now be 3/3 on BP nods) missed. Then the last two slots are a battle for the two you mentioned, Jolie, Vallee (riding on his hit from last year), Fincher's biggest hit, Tyldum's potential BP spoiler, Marsh, Wes Anderson's overdue nod, even Eastwood. Plus, this category is... I want to say the snootiest. There's a reason they sealed Haneke with approval and left Affleck in the dust. I feel like if DuVernay's film is big enough and gets in, they won't also go for a first-feature director. But it's possible.
3. It's going to be a small count year, but Birdman would make sense to lead.
4. It feels like Simmons has it. It doesn't help that Foxcatcher's buzz seems to be cooling and Norton is coming back from a long period of "Where did he go?"
5. Selma's going to be the bigger player, right? So yes, but never a sure thing there.
6. I feel like the jury will save Mommy, Leviathan or Winter Sleep for the top nine if they aren't in the running. Ida and Force Majeure are very likely. This branch can be crazy though. I want Dolan to get in so bad it's clouding my judgment. :)
7. Yup, only Visual Effects.
8. Nothing is safe, but wouldn't it be nice to see Keira perform (maybe a duet with Levine)? I need to see the list first. I'd love to see "Everything is Awesome" rock the Oscars but nothing is ever sure in Song.
9. I will be FLOORED if Nolan gets in for Director. That branch clearly doesn't care for him, so I assume it will take a huge hit across the board if he ever gets in. This ain't it. Techs only, probably four or five.
10. Whiplash. I still don't think it's getting in, but that may be wishful thinking. If it does, probably Interstellar.
The Muppets should always show up at awards shows. I've always wanted them to sing a medley of the Original Song nominees.
Why am I the only pundit that has faith in Jake Gyllenhaal as a Best Actor nominee?
Because Jake is more of a Pacino than a De Niro (early editions, mind you).
Can Ava DuVernay and Damien Chazelle both really score Best Director nods?
Sadly, no. I think DuVernay has a shot, but she is a woman who happens to be black (or vice versa), so...
Is it insane that I have Birdman leading the nomination tally with 9?
Not necessarily. But I wouldn't rule out The Imitation Game, if they can figure out a way to get Goode in Supporting. But that's unlikely, so...
If Whiplash is not the 5 nomination Best Picture threat that I think it is, does that mean Supporting Actor is an actual race?
Even though J.K. Simmons should walk away with this, I'm scared of Duvall and I would be probably be co-rooting for Norton if I'd seen Birdman yet. As it is, I'm co-rooting for little Jaeden Lieberher.
Can Bradford Young finally get an Oscar nod for Cinematography?
Maybe.
What do you think of TFE's predictions for the Foreign Film 9-wide Finalist List?
Sorry, my humor setting is at 35% right now, so no quip here. I'm clueless.
Will anyone remember Dawn of the Planet of the Apes?
I just saw it for the first time recently, so I'm gonna say yes. Two nominations max, as you suggested.
Who do you want to see performing our Original Song nominees?
Keira.
Interstellar's Reviews Mean...?
Four nominations.
Which movie do you think lands the most Oscar nods without a corresponding Best Picture placement?
Wild. (Why not?)
eurocheese: Yeah, if Kirk Douglas couldn't manage it for his completely brilliant work in Ace in the Hole? (Jake's character in Nightcrawler is basically a modern version of Chuck Tatum, after all.) Don't expect anything for this.
1. Jake Gyllenhall will be nominated for lead actor!!! Book it
2. I think there will be a surprise nomination that know one sees coming in one of the acting categories!!!
I really wish Chris Evans was getting more credit for the success of Snowpiercer. What a performance that really pushed the artistic limits. He deserves to be in the Oscar conversation.
Wait...we're accepting that Grand Budapest Hotel won't get a Best Picture? Oy. This doesn't sit well with me.
Looking at your list again, I think France stands a better chance of getting into the 9. It's fashion. Hollywood loves its fashion.
1. No idea. Gyllenhaal seems like a contender to me!
2. Probably not - and it seems like Ava's got the momentum right now. Still hoping Wes Anderson breaks through this year. And I really hope Linklater gets his win. He's overdue, plus Boyhood might be his best.
3. Probably insane to have Birdman with 9. I haven't seen it yet though, so I can't really judge. It seems like it's a tad too strange to be a behemoth like that. I'm very curious about it. Maybe this weekend will finally be Birdman weekend.
4. No, it seems like J.K.'s got it in the bag still.
6. Great! Hoping 2 days 1 night is in amazing intimate little film. Looking forward to it.
7. Dawn of the what? They made another one this year?
8. John Legend
9. Interstellar was extremely confusing, over-stuffed, and disappointing. Which seems to be a good chunk of the consensus. Unless people are swayed by the spectacle of it all, it'll be shut out except for the non-technical categories. Which would be fine by me.
10. Interstellar. Hopefully!
Why am I the only pundit that has faith in Jake Gyllenhaal as a Best Actor nominee?
Neither Jake nor Nightcrawler are quite good enough. I think it's going to be Keaton, Cumberbatch, Redmayne, Oyelowo, Carell. You could also argue Jake isn't due or due again yet. A Best Supporting Oscar nomination at age 25, for what is actually a lead role, is more luck than most of his at least equally talented peers have had. Nevermind the already packed category this year.
There are some really good performances that are awards worthy but won't get an Oscar nominated:
1. Jeanette Mae Steiner The Toy Soldiers
2. Najarra Townsend The Toy Soldiers
3. Juliette Lewis Kelly & Cal
4. Dakota Fanning Night Moves
5. Keira Knightly Begin Again
I think these performances have a shot at the independent spirit awards
Why is everyone starting to doubt Foxcatcher? Am I crazy, but weren't the words "glum" "chilly" and "slow" used to describe Miller's first film Capote? And that got pic and director nods in a year of 5. I think Carell is still in for the time being and I still think the film has good shots in pic and director. It has incredible reviews and it surely will have a passionate base within the Academy.
Foxcatcher is pretty dead in the water. It will probably get a picture nom and perhaps Ruffalo, but I don't see much else happening for it. It was available too early, isn't a film anyone wants to sit through twice and is being eclipsed by fresher, less "icky" films and performances. This one is a rare one that would have benefited from a late opening.
1. Too crowded. It's always too crowded. And they can easily fill the category without leaving the BP race, or at least the films sniffing around for a BP nom.
2. Absolutely not, especially with Tyldum looking so strong for a nom. That would be three "we've never heard of you, here's an Oscar nomination" gestures. With Fincher, Miller, Jolie, Eastwood, Vallee, and Leigh in the mix, in about that order I'd guess,I can't imagine how both DuVernay & Chazelle can possibly happen.
3. I think it's borderline insane you have it with 9, but not insane that it's leading the pack. There's aren't any other films that are going to play well in both the tech and acting races this year.
4. I don't know, I can see it coming down to a Simmons/Norton race, but surely Simmons is going to campaign harder.
5. I do certainly hope so. A Most Violent Year won't be a factor, I don't think. I wonder if it's likelier that Greig Fraser gets his first for Foxcatcher.
6. The executive committee only gets two saves, right? Then you need at least more big crowdpleaser. Saint Laurent most likely. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think there's room for all three of Leviathan, Timbuktu, and Mommy.
7. Nope, just VFX, though Serkis's campaign will keep the film alive at least a little bit.
8. I'd be happier seeing the category cut out altogether than seeing anybody perform, but that's an old rant.
9. Screw the reviews, the bigger problem Interstellar will have will be its soft box office. It's going to barely scrape and crawl its way to $150 million in the U.S., which is a huge amount of money for a chilly hard sci-fi film, but there's already a perception that it's severely underperforming. I can easily see it getting stuck with nothing but a VFX nod.
10. Into the Woods or Unbroken.
I'm interested in the plethora of definitive statements in the comments section. Can we please keep a record of all these for future reference? That way, Nathaniel can retire and we can just go with all those people who were absolutely right and had the guts to state it right here right now, instead of all those people who have the gall to use words like "can", "if" "probably" and "maybe". ;-)
My contribution for Best Foreign Picture: it's probably just my personal liking that is influencing my perspective here, but I don't understand why one of my favourite films of the year - Chile's TO KILL A MAN - hasn't caught any momentum yet. It won a prize at Sundance this year. I guess my hope is that it gets on the shortlist via people who actually watch it, and then it might pull a DOGTOOTH and actually get into the final five once more people see it. (If anyone actually has reasons as to why it hasn't caught on (e.g. poor reviews, lack of presence or push) please let me know.)
Jake deserves a best actor nomination for "Nightcrawler" "Interstellar" will get all the technical awards nominations.
Foreign Language:
If you drop Cuba and Estonia down and bump Turkey and Hungary up, then you have a pretty safe bet of what might make the shortlist. It won't be right-- predictions in this category rarely are-- but I think it's realistic to say that Argentina, Poland, Sweden, Russia, Belgium, and Mauritania could be picked by the branch at large and Canada, Hungary, and Turkey are saved by the executive committee. Those nine are the most buzzed about entries.
Predicting Cuba and Estonia is a good limb to go out on, though. Finland, Germany, and even Brazil seem like other possible spoilers.
People are hitting on a great question which is, "Is the committee obliged to save Winter Sleep if it's not selected by the branch at-large?" I honestly don't see it making the list unless the committee puts it through so I hope they don't feel obligated to do it because of the Palme D'or. I do imagine it being rather divisive and hope that if the committee doesn't like it, they don't let it advance.
Otherwise- maybe I missed some news, but I don't see why people are so down on Foxcatcher's overall chances or Interstellar's below-the-line chances.
I'd argue that for everything aside from the top 5 that is being predicted for the top 10, you should have a variable count. Y'know...5-6 for Into the Woods, 4-5 for Whiplash, 3-4 for Interstellar and Gone Girl and 1-2 for Foxcatcher.
Volvagia, except there are 64 years since ACE IN THE HOLE. I don't know if Gyllenhaal will make it or not, but that's an odd film to use as a comparison for awards.
Henry, except most people in the foreign language branch aren't the clotheshorses that we associate with the Oscars. They're predominantly a bit older and SAINT LAURENT is very gay and openly so.
Unlike CAPOTE, FOXCATCHER doesn't have a performance that screams winner, and with such a deep year especially in best actor I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall to the wayside.
I haven't seen Nightcrawler yet, so I don't know how good Gyllenhaal is, but I just saw Foxcatcher today and all I can say is that Carell does not do anything special with the character, really. There is a lot to be blamed on the scrip and direction, which are both pretty unimaginative. I was never shown anything I already didn't expect. I didn't see one single choice in Tatum's performance that would differ from ANY other actor playing that role. The level of difficulty was around a 5 to me. Playing quiet and subdued is actually not that hard. An underbite a good performance does not make. His breaking the mirror with his forehead felt like a forced attempt to do something! It felt like an overreaction to the event that happened prior and it became a distraction because of continuity, since there was no bump/scar afterwards. He put on 20 pounds? Wow, that must have been really hard for him. I'm sure it was the first time he stepped into a gym. I thought Ruffalo was the only one who conveyed human behavior and different layers. I also liked his physicality (love how he slides his feet in his first scene, when he is greeting some guys). Anyways, aside for the prosthetics, I don't see anything in Carell's performance that would make anyone excited to vote for him. But we all it's hardly ever about the performance and more about marketing and status, so he might be in. The idea that Tatum would be considered supporting is ludicrous. He was in every single scene except for the 1 minute scene with Vanessa Redgrave and the scenes close to the end.
1) If there's a surprise best actor nominee, I think it's Miles Teller. He holds his own opposite JK Simmons and those virtuoso drumming displays show 'degree of difficulty'.
2) Maybe Ava if SELMA is as good as everyone says, but WHIPLASH is not taking off at the box-office yet and I don't see it as a sure-fire Picture nominee at all (I'd have it #9 or #10).
3) Yes. I don't see BIRDMAN in the Sound categories. And maybe they'll skip Stone for Supporting Actress.
4) I think Simmons will win, regardless of what other nominations WHIPLASH gets (though a Screenplay nod is probably safe).
5) Finally? I think he's only been on *some* critics' radars for a couple of years and has not done any widely seen films yet (I'm in Australia and I think SELMA will be his first film to even get a proper cinema release here!). Is he even in the ASC? They'll probably make him wait.
6) I thought TIMBUKTU might be too harrowing for the final 5, and have more confidence in LEVIATHAN.
7) DAWN OF THE... what? A VFX nod only, methinks.
8) Didn't RIO 2 have a song? Won't they go for something awful like that?! Would love to see Keira, but will probably have to settle for Adam Levine.
9) I still see INTERSTELLAR getting nods for VFX, Sound editing, Sound mixing, Production design, Score and Cinematography. Maybe Picture. Probably not Editing. Definitely not Screenplay, Acting or Directing.
I think GONE GIRL will do better than 4 too; Fincher's films often do well below the line (Editing, Sound, Cinematography, Score) and it's a film that people are seeing, and talking about.
10) Picture nominees have dominated the nominations the last 2 years: this year's most non-nominated Best Pictures were THE HOBBIT and BLUE JASMINE (3 nods each). I'll go with something like THE HOBBIT or INTO THE WOODS, assuming INTERSTELLAR still makes it into Picture.
@Travis C I like TO KILL A MAN a lot too. I think it needed to play some more important festivals (Sundance isn't as significant for foreign contenders). It should have played AFI at least to get some buzz going (it doesn't even have a single review on Rotten Tomatoes!).
1. Cuz the character is so weird and unlikable (without being an all out villain like Bardem in NO COUNTRY). It's kind of a Rupert Pupkin performance. I think it just freaks people out a bit. Still, I give Gyllenhaal a 50/50 shot at a nod. I'd be happy.
2. No. Not cuz they're women but because they're not heavyweights, which still matters. One or the other gets in (and maybe Jolie as a history making second woman in a single year), but there are just too many dudes people think are overdue: Linklater, Anderson, Nolan…
3. No. I think it's highly likely for the reasons you said.
1) Jake certainly deserves his place for best actor. I also want to see Miles Teller in Whiplash. I also, want to know why , in this day and age, we have to think about age/experience in the Best Actors category. No one seemed to worry about Jennifer Lawrence. Guess it will take years, maybe decades for the youth to infiltrate the Best Actors category into the "Good 'Ol Boys Club".
4) This may not be the place , but I must mention the outstanding job Robert Pattinson did in playing Rey, the slow, tic-mainifested kid from the South, in The Rover . Norton was good in Birdman , but I'd like to see some new blood in that category.
10) Interstellar ( it won't take Best Picture this year after Gravity was up for so many last year), Selma, Wild
Don -- in terms of the age thing with best actor. I don't think it has anything to do with the 'old boys club' since the acting branch is the one branch that's fairly equally balanced in terms of gender. I think the problem there is just standard sexism that's just so ingraned in society that women support it too (i.e. and generally speaking that women are valued for youth, beauty... men for power, experience... compounded by the myth that men improve with age -- not just in looks -- and that women deteriorate.)
that's my theory at least. But it's so very noticable in the age statistics with the acting categories.
08. Who do you want to see performing our Original Song nominees?
Patti Smith. She's a legend and I would be really sad if she doesn't get a nomination.
I think you're underestimating Selma.
I honestly think it's going to get the most nominations and awards of this year's Oscars.
I just saw A Most Violent Year, and it is damn good (like Lumet good). Chastain is this close to being a category straddler—in a parallel universe, she is the clear lead, with Isaac's character more in the background. That said, he deserves to be in the conversation, just like last year, but fat chance. And the film deserves seven nominations, but will be lucky to get two (BSActress and Screenplay) if it catches fire.
I want both Adam Levine and Keira Knightley singing Lost Stars in the Oscars!!!
just imagine, Keira with her dress singing it accoustically with a guitar, even the thought of that makes me swoon
I know it's barely been seen, but from what I've heard, Unbroken is a lock for a BP nomination.
Sorry, Nat, but I just can't buy that Blunt is in it for a Best Actress nomination. Even if she has the screentime and narrative framing to be considered "lead," the material is just too whimsical. And with those things counting against her already, what are the chances we can expect Marion Cotillard in Nine levels of brilliance from her performance? Nothing against Blunt, but the order feels too tall, and there are other contenders in the race:
Swank could so easily get a SAG nod
Aniston hasn't crested yet
Cotillard could once again hog spots in the precursors that Blunt needs, even if she doesn't get an Oscar nomination
That said, on another note, Kim Dickens could easily walk away with my personal Best Supporting Actress trophy this year. I've seen Gone Girl twice and her work is just immaculately detailed and resonant.
Fun!
1. I think David Oyelowo and Oscar Isaac's late-game big lands will hurt Gyllenhaal's steam. 3 of the 5 are locks I think, and I like Spall's chances as #4. If Carrell is out, I think it will be Oyelowo or Isaac that takes his place.
2. Whiplash will push in multiple places for noms, and if there are more than 8 BP slots I think it gets one of them. But I only have it scoring for Simmons otherwise. An odd 2 nominations I know, but Original Screenplay is so strong this year. I think DuVernay gets both nominations.
3. Not insane, but I have Birdman second to Unbroken for most noms. I think Unbroken will lead with 10 nominations.
4. It's a 2-horse race I think between Simmons and Norton, with Simmons having a strong lead at this point. I think Miyavi could be the threat from the outside. Ruffalo and Hawke round out the 5.
5. Yes, I think he's in for Selma.
6. I think it's good - with Sweden and Poland leading the way right now.
7. 1 nomination, although I think it pushes in a few tech categories.
8. I just want to see Chris Pratt rapping in Everything is Awesome.
9. 5 nominations and 2 wins for Interstellar (Sound Editing & Viz). Add a Best Picture nom if it goes to 10.
10. Right now I have Mr. Turner and Into the Woods with 5 noms each.