Final Oscar Nomination Predictions
Wednesday, January 14, 2015 at 7:48PM 
Best Picture
1-5
The big kahuna, the best picture category holds the key to all the other categories essentially. If you guess wrong here there's a domino effect since contributing to one of the 800 lb gorillas will always give you an advantage -- you can see that effect most clearly each year in the "contemporary" sections of the various guild awards when BP frontrunners always show up, no matter what films had more impressive achievements in that craft that particular year. The past few weeks have been tumultuous beyond the three locked up frontrunners: Boyhood, Birdman and The Imitation Game. You can also count on The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Theory of Everything since neither has faltered with precursors and both were surprising hits with audiences - yes even Theory (see Tina & Amy's great Golden Globes joke 'combines two things audiences love: crippling nerve disorders and super complicated math'). After those five it gets much trickier.
6-7
Despite its difficulty in the guild awards I'd still be surprised if they dared ignore Selma, which is a superbly crafted example of the exact type of film they generally go bonkers for, even if it's only half as good as Selma is: true story, message movie, great man bio. And yes, AMPAS got screeners. Given anecdotal evidence gathered at Oscar-schmoozy functions, I'm still betting that Whiplash makes it in despite a surprisingly weak run with audiences given that it's essentially a "crowd-pleaser". (No, I don't know what happened there.) In fact, for a long time I was predicting Damien Chazelle in Best Director and I'm still tempted to.
8-9
How many Best Picture nominees will we get? If the past years are any indication, 9, though wouldn't the point of the new rules (however many muster passionate support i.e. a certain percentage of votes) be more pointed if that number varied from year to year. Time to check the math again! The way I see it there are five films in play for these last two spots: Unbroken, Into the Woods, American Sniper, Gone Girl, and Nightcrawler. The box office business and hoopla during voting suggests Unbroken and Into the Woods, the guild awards suggest American Sniper and Nightcrawler and my heart suggests Gone Girl so I'm shedding a single tear for it. (yes, J.K. Simmons, a single tear -- What'cha gonna do about it?) Beyond those hopefuls there are six long shots that would be shocking at this point given various factors but it's worth noting that they all DO have devout fans: Foxcatcher, Ida, Interstellar, A Most Violent Year, Mr Turner and um er... Guardians of the Galaxy?
My predictions:
Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Grand Budapest Hotel
The Theory of Everything
if 6 then... Selma
if 7 then... Whiplash
if 8 then... American Sniper
if 9 then... Nightcrawler
if 10 (that's technically possible) then... Gone Girl
BEST ACTRESS
See Previous Article I'm going with Julianne, Rosamund, Felicity, Jennifer, and Reese in the likeliest to fall position should Amy Adams or Marion Cotillard surprise. [chart]
BEST ACTOR
See Previous Article I'm going with Redmayne and Keaton as the only locks. Followed by Gyllenhaal, Oyelowo, and Cumberbatch... daringly suggesting he's the surprise snub if Carell, Fiennes, Cooper, or Mr Turner himself (aka Mr Spall) busts in. But I'm nervous for Oyelowo for sure. I could easily see him missing. [see chart]
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
See Previous Article I'm going with the five the whole world's going with since precursors have been in lockstep: JK Simmons leading, with Norton, Hawke, Ruffalo and Duvall following. If someone drops out (with J.K. so far ahead you can make a case for him amassing so many #1 votes that weird things happen with the off consensus ballots I'm guessing in this order for surprises: Pine, Brolin, Wilkinson, Waltz, Ahmed) [see chart]
She's at war here. And will she win to be nominated?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I've been debating long and hard on this category and am willing to take a risk. Alas, it's not predicting that Meryl Streep will fall for her singing witch. She's a default nominee (sometimes she deserves it, sometimes she doesn't, but she's always there. This year is the test of how much of a default nominee Jessica Chastain has become. We could call her Meryl Streep Jr (same late start, same focus on Ivy league actor's education, same chameleon explosion) except for that Amy Adams seems to have already claimed that in terms of Oscar love. It's not that Jessica isn't brilliant in A Most Violent Year -- she totally is! it may have become my favorite of her performances -- but that few people seem to be talking about the film and it's hard to be a lone nominee from your film in the supporting categories. With their Best Picture bolstering Keira and Emma and Patricia, the frontrunner, are all safe. That leaves one spot open. SAG went with Naomi, BAFTA went with Imelda & Rene, The Globes went with Jessica. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Rene Russo rises up with Nightcrawler cresting at just the right time to pull her weirdly precursor light knockout performance into the game. If I'm offbase but there is a surprise it's either Tilda Swinton or Laura Dern instead of Russo. Even though I love all the possible surprises, I'm rooting for Jessica to make it and hoping the impossible occurs and we lose either Streep or Stone.
Foreign Film
I'm sticking with my long held assumption that these are the five: Tangerine (Estonia), Ida (Poland), Wild Tales (Argentina), Force Majeure (Sweden), and Timbuktu (Mauritania) which I realize leaves Leviathan out which makes no sense but... I don't want to drop Tangerine which has served me well (I predicted it long ago and people were surprised to see it in the finals) or Wild Tales because it stands out so much from the pack. [see chart]
Animated Film
Sticking with my previous predictions. Song of the Sea has not been given any media attention but then neither had Secret of Kells, the previous wonder from the same filmmaker. In the end I find it hard to imagine that a branch seeing both would prefer The Book of Life to this unique and uniquely beautiful tale. The question mark is of course the The Tale of The Princess Kaguya but I'm guessing the response wasn't rapturous enough to win the film the Studio Ghibli spot. So I think it's stop motion via Laika The Boxtrolls and the American CG trinity this year with Big Hero 6, Dragon 2, and The Lego Movie . If anything gets bumped unexpectedly I'm guessing it's The Boxtrolls.
Cinematography
The ACS chose Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Imitation Game, Mr Turner and Unbroken. They regularly go four/five with Oscar so the odd film out (if there is one) will surely be Imitation Game, yes? I'm opting for a foreign surprise via Ida's fascinating compositions and black and white minimalism. I could see Interstellar or either of Bradford Young's pictures (A Most Violent Year / Selma) surprising, too. Young did get a lot of press this year.
Production Design
The Art Directors Guild has many different categories so they don't give us a clear picture. But I'm guessing Imitation Game, Grand Budapest Hotel, and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. While I could see a snub happening for the brilliant post-talking apes world in the Apes film, I'm choosing not to predict it in order to stay sane. For the other two let's say Interstellar and, going out on a true limb (since it didn't figure into the guild awards), Mr Turner. If there's a spoiler let's chalk up the umpteenth nod for Birdman.
I'm predicting 4 nominations for Selma (wish it was more) including costume design
Costume Design
My favorite! While I'd love to see them being super discerning and go out on limbs like they do very occassionally, I'm guessing this is more of a 'stick to the major players' year. So with that said I'm guessing Grand Budapest Hotel, Selma, Into the Woods, and Mr Turner with the one off BP discussion pick being Maleficent. If there's a spoiler it's probably a BP nominee like Theory of Everything or Imitation Game. Or even Birdman for the legendary Albert Wolsky. But I tell you what: poor Louise Frogley (Unbroken) can't catch a break. She's done so much period work for major stars and never lucks out.
Film Editing
I'm guessing American Sniper, Boyhood, Whiplash, Imitation Game as my definites and for the fifth slot possible Nightcrawler. But it could be anything really. Let's say Grand Budapest Hotel as spoiler.
Visual Effects
The Oscar's vfx branch eventually gives up on all franchises so let's say they are FINALLY tired of Middle Earth (though it's a huge risk) and skip The Hobbit. So my guess is Guardians of the Galaxy, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Interstellar, Godzilla, and X-Men Days of Future Past
Makeup and Hair
I'm sticking with my long held predictions: Foxcatcher, Guardians of the Galaxy and Grand Budapest Hotel with Maleficent as spoiler
Sound Editing
American Sniper, Birdman, Fury, Interstellar, Unbroken. I wanted to include Godzilla in the sound categories but it seems to have been forgotten.
Sound Mixing
American Sniper, Birdman, Imitation Game, Interstellar, Into the Woods
Original Score
I'm guessing Theory of Everything, Interstellar, and a double for Alexandre Desplate with Imitation Game and Grand Budapest Hotel. The fifth slot is trickier. I dare not hope for Mica Levi's Under the Skin (the best score of the year) because it's just so out there. So i want to predict something off the beaten path like Dario Marianelli's Boxtrolls or Marco Beltrami's The Homesman (both amazing). But I'll go with Giacchino's Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Original Song
sticking with my original predictions because who knows with that branch: Lost Stars, Glory, Everything is Awesome, Not Gonna Miss You, Mercy Is
Documentary Feature
I'm going with Citizenfour, Life Itself, Finding Vivian Maijer, The Overnighters, and Virunga
Short Live Action
I'm going with Baghdad Messi, Butterlamp, The Phone Call, Carry On, Boogaloo and Graham
Short Documentary
I'm going with White Earth, Joanna, Kehinda Wiley, The Lion's Mouth Opens, Crisis Hotline
Short Animated
I'm going with Bigger Picture, Duet, Feast, Me and My Moulton, The Damkeeper
Best Director
I saved the toughest category for last. Before completing this entry I've looked around at some other sites to see what people were calling and I'm noticing a lot of people being smart and just listing the DGA nominees again. This is, technically, the smartest thing to do since they usually go 4/5... but I'm always aiming for 5/5 which is why i take risks. But god, it's tough this year. Linklater, Inarritu, and Anderson appear to to be the safest while the Globes suggested Fincher and Duvernay and the DGA suggested Eastwood and Tyldum. BAFTA suggested Chazelle and James Marsh. For a long time I thought Duvernay and Chazelle would round it out. And lately I'd begun to suspect that Dan Gilroy might surprise via Nightcrawler. Tyldum is obviously a threat but it's unwise to bet against Eastwood with Oscar if the DGA approves since Oscar likes him even more. So I'm going to say Eastwood but that still leaves me with one open spot. I'm throwing caution to the wind and saying Chazelle but I'm rooting for Duvernay and boy will Oscar catch hell in the media if they pass up this chance to make history with her.
Reader Comments (51)
I would flip Whiplash and Nightcrawler, but otherwise.........
I am annoyed that American Sniper suddenly seems so likely because I don't want to have to see it...
I hope you are right about Whiplash getting the nomination as I feel more people would see it if it does. Because it is my favorite movie of the year so far. I know it won't win but man that movie had me on the edge of my seat it is was of the most intense movies I have seen in a long long time. I can't stop talking about it. I would love to see more people talking about it.
""it's hard to be a lone nominee from your film in the supporting categories''
^^ would suck if this worked for Duvall but not for Chastain
Best Supporting Actress--from your mouth to AMPAS' ears.
After you predicted Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart I'm willing to bet money Russo gets nominated tomorrow.
Nat, have you seen Tangerines yet? I watched it a couple of weeks ago, I loved it! And it is just the kind of thing the Academy loves (a tale of an old man caring for two people on opposite sides of a conflict). If the nominees end up being Force Majeure, Ida, Leviathan, Tangerines and Wild Tales, it will be the first time ever I've seen every nominee in that category before the nominations are announced (which is kind of exciting)...
Well done on the last minute work. Your Top 9 for Picture are exactly the same as mine. I am going to stick with the GG lineup for both Supporting categories. My brave pick is for UNBROKEN to show up in Adapted Screenplay. I am also going for Fiennes over Cumberbatch, and Adams over Witherspoon. And I am still flip-flopping in Director (I don't want to predict Tyldum, or take DuVernay out, but DGA have thrown me out now).
For whatever my opinion is worth, I think you are still too hard on things you like. And I also think you're a little late to the Selma snub party.
My bet is that Fiennes takes the 5th spot from Oyelowo. I also think it's Dern and not Russo that gets the 5th spot there (though I agree it's Chastain who is vulnerable)
But I also only have Nightcrawler getting 1 nom (orig. screen) so I could be way off.
With Grand Budapest looking as strong as it's looking, I think Fiennes will get in over either Jake or Oyelowo.
In other wishful thinking, I've also been thinking Rene or Tilda will get it over Chastain.
I don't think Foxcatcher in BP would be shocking. PGA went for it, even though they usually lean more populist, and we know there are Bennett Miller fans in the Academy.
I'm guessing either Force Majeure or Leviathan will be left out in Foreign Film. Ida feels safe, Tangerines is reportedly a crowdpleaser and in recent years, they've had at least two nominees from outside of Europe. By the way, I'm Estonian, but I did not care for Tangerines. It's like a less tense and less complex version of No Man's Land.
When I published my own predictions, I swapped Leviathan into Foreign Film at the last minute because of the Globes, but upon reflection, I think your five there are exactly right. It's never a good idea to discount well-constructed crowd pleasers in that category.
I think Leviathan is in. Not sure who would be out, but Leviathan is in. It's a political thing.
What are your thoughts on Carell showing up in Supporting Actor, as he did at BAFTA? I'd say he is in the 6th or 7th position (the other man would be Josh Brolin).
"daringly suggesting he's the surprise snub if Carell, Fiennes, Cooper, or Turner busts in"
That "Turner" is Timothy Spall right? Is that an indication that he was so brilliant in that film embodying Mr. Turner and people are starting to call him by his character's name now? If that's the case, I really hope he has a higher chance of getting in. I have not seen the film but I adore Timothy Spall as an actor. He was very charming in the THR actor roundtable. If people watch that they will surely fall in love with him.
I think Jessica is safe. I don't know if any Nightcrawler actor will get in to begin with, and even so I think Meryl and Kiera are most vulnerable. Actors love Jessica and she's been working hard this year.
I hadn't realized you were not a fan of Stone (I also don't think she's the best female performer in that movie). And Russo making it would be FANTASTIC!!! Who do you think will be the Jacki Weaver this year ( by that I mean surprising out of nowhere like she did with SLP)?
It's a very interesting year. Nominations could be a snore but it feels like there is room for a lot weirdness. More interesting though is my sense that the campaigns this year have been really messy. Feels like grand Budapest and nightcrawler did everything right, but the rest are crazy. Too many late releases and weird roll outs. And how is it possible that there weren't other supporting actor possibilities nipping at Duvall? Outrageous that wild is not getting more than one or two. Of course it drives me bananas that I probably won't be able to see at least two of the foreign nominees, and I live in sf!
--Yearly reminder that the Academy is 94% white, 77% male, and has a median age of 62.--
Of course, the thing about the Lone Nominee theory is that we are all pretty much predicting one nomination for STILL ALICE. Given the trend of the past two years, should we be considering Kristen Stewart more seriously than Russo or Dern?
Russo deserves the nomination. I hope she will get it. Chastain needs to practices what she preaches. Give another older actress a chance, Chastain!
Whoa... Slow down... Amy Adams has to win at least one Oscar before being compared to Streep! Right now she is closer to Glenn Close.
I wouldn't be overly surprised if Keira didn't make the cut. There seemed to be a lot of talk surrounding The Imitation Game in the beginning (after Toronto, there were some who had it pegged as a frontrunner in several categories), but enthusiasm seems to have waned as other films have surged. Also, they may just be in the habit of passing her over...Atonement, A Dangerous Method, Anna Karenina....
I'm thinking Arquette and Stone for sure, Chastain very probable - perhaps Rene can oust either Knightley or La Streep?
What are the odds that Pine is a nominee as well as an announcer? They must be inviting to reveal the nominations for something...
Kind of sad you've been down about Kaguya this entire Oscar season, although I won't be surprised if the Academy passes on the most emotional and most beautiful animated film of the year...probably because I love it so much.
Would die for Tilda but very happy for a Russo. As a Meryl fan, I'd be more than happy to see her sit this one out.
Just saw Selma tonight and hope it gets its due. As timely as it is, it feels even more urgent than 12YAS but up against stiffer competition.
BVR -- I like Stone in the movie just fine but it's just that the people on the outside are better than some on the inside: CHASTAIN, RUSSO, SWINTON.
BD -- i'm predicting it for 4 nods but who knows. it could really be powerful if AMPAS watched their screeners. Ava could still make it!
MIKEY - -totally agreed. I would love a lot of weirdness in the morning and it is possible. My theory is that when someone is way way way out front it sucks up so many of the #1 votes that weird canddiates with obsessed fans can rise up since regular contenders are all getting #2s. so if this theory holds we could see shocks in DIRECTOR, SUPPORTING ACTRESS, AND SUPPORTING ACTOR which all have crazy out front leaders.
The two things that would make me the happiest would be Steve Carell and Wild Tales.
""weird canddiates with obsessed fans can rise up""
^^ That sounds like Tilda in Snowpiercer to me! Fingers crossed.
Keira Knightley seems to be a nice young woman and a hard worker. But, oh what a mediocre actress. Seems such a shame that magnificent supporting performances from Agata Kulesza (Ida) and Marion Bailey(Turner) seem to have so little chance at a nomination, while Knightley's considered a near lock. And - honestly - I'm amazed that anyone can watch "Mommy or "Two Days, One Night" and not agree that Anne Dorval and Marion Cotillard should be absolutely controlling the best actress race?
I am praying to every single God under the sun that Ava du Vernay is nominated tomorrow. I don't care about anything else but that.
Ideally, Cotillard would get the nod but Ava just feels more important and timely than Marion.
That's all.
A few final predictions (limited):
Actor: Cooper, Cumberbatch, Gyllenhaal, Keaton, Redmayne
Actress: Adams, Jones, Moore, Pike, Witherspoon (I really wanted to write "Cotillard")
Director: Anderson, DuVernay, Eastwood, Inarritu, Linklater (I really wanted to write "Chazelle")
Editing: Edge of Tomorrow (for the bragging rights if I'm right)
I just saw Imitation Game and was thoroughly impressed with Keira (for the first time) and Cumberbatch. The film was also compelling but already fading a little from my memory. But those two actors were brilliant. Their relationship in it was so well drawn and Keira reminded me of Emma Thompson in her steady voice and level gaze. Deserves of a nomination. Would love Chastain to be nominated too and Russo. I am baffled as to why Arquette sailed through as a probable winner for her pedestrian work in Boyhood although I admire the film.
Terrific work here, Nathaniel.
KarlM-you rock! I'm feeling a wee bit of Chastain-fatigue for lots of reasons, despite the fact she really is a fantastic actress. Hate that she might be nominated for a movie that got, what, maybe 5 screenings?
As for the "Jacki Weaver this year", I'd love to see Imelda Staunton for Pride, although highly unlikely because Pride is no way near the position SLP was in. (nominations in every category, Weinstein, etc.) Actually i'm a little surprised that no one ever considered her in the supporting race this season, and that BAFTFA nomination just feels out of nowhere itself.
all that really matters is that oyelowo and duvernay are nominated. if not, what a sad event tomorrow's announcement will be. surely i'm rooting for a bunch of other people, but just think about what these nominations will be known for years from now-if they're nominated it's their inclusion and if not it's their snubbing.not about jake gyllenhaal, not about rosamund pike, or meryl streep, or jessica chastain,or marion cotillard getting "snubbed". it would be a shame if either is not nominated in favor of the american sniper guys or morten tyldum
I'm staying with Chazelle and DuVernay, probably because Clint's film is mostly trash. Its politics are insulting trash. The film's rhythm is nowhere to be found. This film is like one of the worst Homeland episodes I've seen. And I'm pretty confident that many voters will feel like that.
My biggest risks: I'm with you on Leviathan being snubbed. But I'm going for no Gone Girl in adapted screenplay. I have a feeling they'll act snobbish and snub the pulp writer.
I didn't give up on my IDA in cinematography prediction all year long. The work has been highlighted by the ASC a year ago, so I believe they're aware of it.
Transformers is always nominated for sound mixing!! I included it. And I have a feeling WHIPLASH is too obvious here to be snubbed.
And THE HOBBIT is always up for production design, so it's either Interstellar or The Hobbit as number five. I can't decide.
I have Rene Russo instead of Chastain and I finally settled on Actor: snubbing Oyelowo for Fiennes. I just can't see Fiennes not making it, but he's likely to not make it. Go figure. But it's the same as last year when I didn't give up on Bale because he felt like a nominee.
SAG goes 5/5 in actress.
I can't see Duvall nominated, maybe for the same reasons as Clint. The film is bad, the performance is dull. I was very close to predicting Wilkinson but decided to go with Carell in the end.
To me EDITING is the toughest category this year.
I have BIRDMAN, BOYHOOD, GONE GIRL, THE IMITATION GAME, WHIPLASH, but I'm very close to remove GONE GIRL and add NIGHTCRAWLER.
I'm seriously going to cry is Ava doesn't get nominated.
Great predictions, I'm in agreement almost entirely, especially regarding Picture.
For Actress I'm going Julianne, Reese, Rosamund, Jennifer and Marion.
I know I'm wrong but it's wishful thinking.
In regards to yours, I've come to terms and am at peace with no Marion, but if Reese is out, I'm done. Academy, don't do this to me.
screenplays?
*Praying for Ava Duvernay*
And Oyelowo, but mostly Duvernay.
I'm predicting Rene Russo too and I really want her to make it in, but if anyone makes it in Jacki Weaver in SLP style, I hope it's Naomi Watts in Birdman... I thought she was the best female in the film (though they were all obviously doing excellent work).
I always try to remind myself that I'm more likely to be disappointed than happily surprised...but I always get really excited for nominations and my hopefulness makes it hurt so much more. Haha.
Hoping for some good news!
I do not get the Selma love. It's nothing we haven't seen before and the performances are solid but far from groundbreaking. I will not love the movie because it's morally right or because it was directed by a woman. Last year 12 Years a Slave dealt with a similar subject but that was truly a fantastic film and deserved every nomination it got and more. I prefer movies that take more chances and are a bit different. Selma felt like such a safe and dull movie, other than the opening scene of the bombing and the first march. It barely explored the characters. Carmen Egojo only had one decent scene and it was much more interesting than the rest of the movie. I would have loved to see more of Oprah, who for the first time was fantastic and subtle.
Sad man, I loved Selma, but leaving that aside: How would you compare it to The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything and American Sniper in terms of being "groundbreaking," "safe and dull," "movies that take more chances and are a bit different" or overall Oscarability? Just wondering.
I'm actually figuring we could see Carell do a Reverse Winslet and go from lead to supporting. He should've been there from the beginning, even though he's more of a lead than Streep in Prada or Whitaker in Scotland, imo. Reason being: Actor was too crowded from the get-go, whereas he'd have been a standout nominee in supporting. Hoping he kicks Duvall's ass out. Nothing against Duvall, just against the mediocrity of The Judge.
100% agree with you about Best Picture, practically down to the hierarchy, except I'd swap Whiplash and Selma. I think Whiplash has pretty sturdy support, in a Beasts of the Southern Wild-esque way.
Supporting Actress is killing me! Chastain needs to be in there, but you nailed it: it's rare to be a film's lone nominee in a supporting category. She only has a Globe nod, for major precursors, whereas Russo at least has SAG. I want both in. Ideally, my lineup would be this: Arquette, Chastain, Russo, Stone, Swinton.
Actor will be aces if it's what we're both predicting. Again, Cumberbatch, awesome as he is, has been overshadowed by Keaton, Redmayne, and Gyllenhaal, while Oyelowo has a push behind him. So he's most vulnerable, and Fiennes may slide in, which is awesome.
Correction James D: Russo doesn't have a SAG, Naomi Watts does. Russo has a BAFTA nomination.
My bad, and I know that, haha. I'm super tired. Yes, she has the BAFTA, which took me by surprise but definitely adds some deft weight to her chances.
Paul Outlaw: Completely agree about Theory of Everything, which is the dullest of the dull this Oscar season. American Sniper I hated except for Cooper. Imitation Game I enjoyed though. I was entertained by it and I was actually moved by the final act of it and Cumberbatch's performance. A very flawed film though.
I am still flabbergasted over the praise for The Imitation Game. The frequency with which this starchfest drifts into self-parody is frightening. It's very close to MadTV doing Masterpiece Theater.
Wait, did The Lego Movie just got snubbed?
Dick Poop. That is all.