Jacob Tremblay is frighteningly good at being a celebrity already. But will he be Oscar nominated?
Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 2:03PM 
Recently Scott Feinberg added Jacob Tremblay to his actual predictions for Best Actor nominations. Yes, Best Actor. While Tremblay is obviously the leading man of Room (he co-leads the first half and essentially takes over in the second) he's been campaigned as supporting because he is a kid and that's how kids are campaigned invariably -- remember when they tried to pretend that Keisha Castle Hughes (Whale Rider) was supporting even though her movie had no other leads. LOL. Not so good times.
Tremblay in Best Actor would be a surprise but it maybe isn't a bad call given the seemingly passion-free zone that is the presumed leaders in that particular race. Though I think we'll only see that "promotion" happening if Room is strong enough to nab a Best Picture nomination (I think it is --see the updated Best Picture chart). On the other hand the actors branch, like most organizations, is subject to the whims of the patriachy and as such little boys have a much harder time nabbing Oscar nominations than little girls probably because no one feels comfortable, subconciously that is, making grown accomplished men step aside for children (but accomplished grown women? "Get out of the way for that little cutie, you old hag!"). The most recent valid comparison point in terms of acclaim and size of role might be Haley Joel Osment in The Sixth Sense (1999) who co-led that picture with Bruce Willis and was nominated for Best Supporting Actor. In that case though the co-lead was of the same gender and Oscar is generally pretty forgiving of category fraud in those cases. At least since 1991's Thelma & Louise, the last film to be nominated for two leading players of the same gender.)
If Jacob Tremblay were to be nominated in Best Actor (and we hope he is) he'd be the second youngest of all time. His exact age is the subject of question; Wikipedia says he was born in October 5th, 2006, which would make him 9 years old right now but IMDb has no birthdate and recent reporting at Entertainment Weekly refers to him as an 11 year old boy. But regardless of where he is between 9 and 11, if he is nominated tomorrow he will not become the youngest Oscar nominee in either male acting category. The record in Best Actor will continue to be held by Jackie Cooper who was nominated for Skippy (1931) when he had just barely turned 9 and he enjoyed a very lengthy showbiz career thereafter (he passed away in 2011). The record in Supporting Actor will continue to be held by Justin Henry from Kramer vs. Kramer (1979) who was nominated at 8 years of age. Unlike Cooper, though, he did not become a showbiz fixture.
Anyway remember that time in December that Oscar Isaac was talking about his face on Yoplait "go-gurt" and people went crazy for it? So that popped up again on Jimmy Kimmel with Jacob Tremblay as a guest and the child star handled the crowd with future leading man charm offensive... this is all very Dakota Fanning territory if you ask me. Definitely a kid but a kid with hyper-developed confidence who has eery instincts for sitting at the grown up table like he already belongs there and plans to stay.
Well, I do have a delicious face."
Let's hope Tremblay has great grounding at home and people on his professional team who care more about him than his earning potential. The child star path can be treacherous. Historically speaking child stars take one of these four roads after their first burst of fame
- Become a Cautionary Tale: petty crime, drug arrests, self-destructive (too many names to mention)
- Enter the 'Where Are They Now' Lexicon Hall of Fame: a disappearing act either because showbiz wasn't for them or showbiz didn't want them after all... or some combo of the two.
- Become Showbiz Troupers: many child stars stay in the business when they grow up with wildly varying degrees of success but their initial child star fame remains a crucial part of why they're famous (Anna Paquin, Drew Barrymore, Roddy McDowall, Christina Ricci, Jackie Cooper, etc...)
- Ascend: Here's the rarest of outcomes. The actor or actress becomes so popular as an adult movie star once they're grown up that their childhood ascendance becomes an anecdotal part of their history but not anyone's chief focus (Jodie Foster, Christian Bale, Natalie Wood, Liz Taylor)
So best wishes to Tremblay and his team if they choose to pursue the long game of outcomes #3 or #4 or if they take a healthy #2 out if he doesn't stay interested in a few years time.
OSCAR PREDICTIONS: ACTOR & SUPPORTING ACTOR (Supporting Actor is particularly difficult this year. It's possible to imagine virtually any combination of the top ten as long as Mark Rylance and Sylvester Stallone are accounted for)
NATHANIEL'S BALLOT: My votes in these two categories coming up shortly
Reader Comments (32)
Would Kirsten Dunst be #3 or #4? I say #4 despite my love for Interview with the Vampire.
I still need to see Room.
Whatever happened to Quinn Cummings?
It's funny that most people don't think it's a strong year for lead actor performances, because I think it's a really good year for lead actor performances - it's just not a good year for typical Oscar-style lead actor performances (which I generally don't care for anyway). Anyway, this is who I'd vote for:
Actor:
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Peter Sarsgaard, Experimenter
Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
Ben Mendelsohn, Mississippi Grind
Supporting Actor:
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
Sam Elliott, Grandma
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Kirsten Dunst is always teetering on the bubble between #3 and #4, and honestly, that's what I love about her. She has the unfussy dependability of Drew Barrymore with the auteurial genius of Nicole Kidman. I love that she's getting awards play for TV work...It's somehow SO very her.
I consider Natalie Portman a soft 4.
I really like the idea of this, gives me someone to cheer on in that dull dull category. Am i the only one predicting an Eddie Redmayne snub?
I remember a few years ago, Feinberg was the only pundit I saw to call Jacki Weaver's Silver Linings Playbook nomination so I have faith in him...
Kristen Stewart is also teetering on the edge of 3 and 4. Frankly, that tension is what makes her career so exciting and interesting right now.
Feinberg is like an Oscar prophet so his predictions make me a little nervous, particularly since Tremblay's nomination comes at the expense of Michael Fassbender. God please no. That's my favorite lead actor performance!
My biggest Oscar prediction this year is that Sylvester Stallone is "snubbed". Seriously, I don't understand the front runner narrative behind him and after missing SAG and BAFTA and the industry's general lack of enthusiasm for Creed, I could easily see him missing for a late-year release contender like Tom Hardy. In my opinion, there are eleven legitimate contenders for supporting actor so that category is going to be terribly hard to predict.
I also suspect Stallone is the surprise snub. With Revenant heat, and the fact that Dicaprio so often has supporting actor coattails, I think Hardy is in. I also think everybody wants to avoid another Oscarssowhite, so people will rally around Idris. Both are the type of actor it is surprising they haven't been nominated yet, some quality work on their resumes. Bring on their first nominations.
I really doubt Jacob Tremblay will be nominated, let alone in lead. Far more competition from films that more people will be seeing than Room. Ruffalo, Keaton, Hardy, Bale, Stallone, Rylance, Del Toro, Dano are in films most voters have seen before Room, with friends and colleagues that will rally behind them.
I just hope that, if Batman v. Superman bombs, someone reacts to his presence quickly and has him act out one of the Robin origins in live-action. That's all I want. My ideal would be Tim Drake, honestly, but I know the studio wouldn't go for anything but Dick Grayson as Robin. But I'm also someone who wants Batman solo films to cost what they should (in the $75-90 million area for those curious) and not be $230 million or more monster tentpoles, so my kind of Batman film is almost certainly not on WB's mind anyway.
@Suzanne - I think another part of the "weak" lead actor year is that a good bit of them went supporting too, and instead of what usually happens it just backfired for them. Tremblay, the Compton trio, Paul Dano, Michael Keaton (sort of). All of them could have feasibly contended for a spot, their campaign people just outsmarted themselves in a stacked year with categorically correct performances. Still, I'm hoping Tremblay pulls a Keisha Castle-Hughes this year. I get Oscar's usually a sausage fest but damn those leading men contenders are serving up a LOT of ham.
The link to your film bitch picks isnt working for me. Is it just me?
My wish list for this year's Best Actor nominees: Michael Caine in Youth, Tom Courtenay in 45 Years, Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant, Michael B. Jordan in Creed, and Oscar Isaac in Ex Machina. My winner: Caine
My wish list for Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies, Sylvester Stallone in Creed, Michael Keaton in Spotlight, Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation, and Tom Hardy in The Revenant. My winner: Keaton
I hope Tremblay can eek out a nom at the expense of Redmayne, who seems like a placeholder; is anyone enthusiastic about this performance? Cranston I suppose we'll have to live with.
Nathaniel,
You completely forgot Steve Carell anywhere in your predictions. I have a distinct feeling he will show up in Best Actor and (I have a hope) Trumbo will be completely shut out. Regardless, Carell has to be in the conversation.
Ben -- that i did. carell is my personal bane.
Ben: Yeah, I probably have a different view of both lead categories then the blog runner. Actor: DiCaprio and Damon fighting for the win. Carell taking a Lead Actor slot on surging passion. Tremblay probably getting promoted due to a lack of passion for the other competitors and 1 of Cranston, Fassbender, Redmayne or B. Jordan, in that order of probability, in the last slot. Actress: Ronan and Larson fighting for the win. Blanchett firmly entrenched. Poehler as the Landmark Wildcard. Rampling as the most likely old dog. Tomlin, Theron or Blunt as alts.
Kirsten is definitely a #4, even if she's a not a megastar like the ones cited in the post. Her biggest successes/bona fides came later in life, with Spiderman and Eternal Sunshine and Melancholia and such.
caroline: Um...box office success is different than "I like you as a performer." I love her Melancholia work, yes, but she's never had even one film work where the film was at least good (all), she was the lead (disqualifies Eternal Sunshine), she was good in it (disqualifies the Sam Raimi Spider-Man movies) AND it was popular in any sort of mainstream sense. (disqualifies Melancholia.) That's what it would take to be a solid 4.
I can't see Ruffallo getting in over Keaton , that just seems so odd to me as the latter gives the stronger performance in the same film.
My guess is Stallone gets in but doesn't win. My guess is it's like Natalie Portman and Clive Owen in Closer, who won globes, missed out on SAG, and only got noms for the Oscars. I can't see him being an Oscar winner for a late sequel. Rylance takes over from here, not unlike Morgan Freeman and Cate Blanchett in 2004.
Quinn Cummings was outshone by her older female costar in her most famous role and was never heard from again.
Dakota Fanning is a great analogy to make, although I would say she was more far along in terms of maturity and acting ability at that age.
Volvagia:
Be careful, Bring It On counts in all the criteria and Nathaniel might fight you if you discount it.
I am really liking this second phase of Dunst's career (post von Trier). She is taking on challenging material that doesn't put her in the forefront with some great directors. Plus, she's starting to take character actress roles (Bachelorette, On the Road, Midnight Special, even Fargo). I'm liking what I'm seeing.
I will also defend Bachelorette to my dying day. Any chance to watch Lizzy Caplan run around doing coke.
As much as I like Tom Hardy, it is with some dread that I suspect he might get a surprise nomination for 'The Revenant' tomorrow. And I mean this because I'm worried we're all going to be wondering "Oh, maybe the Golden Globes weren't a fluke after all" when we see how many nominations that movie gets. Watch. It'll get something like 11 nominations.
And as others have said, I definitely don't think Stallone is anywhere close to a lock. I hope he gets nominated, but I'm bracing myself for a snub.
I don't know. I just have this strange feeling that the Supporting Actor category is going to be very disappointing to me this year (Hardy getting in, Ruffalo over Keaton, Stallone snubbed, Elba snubbed). I'm preparing for the worst.
Rami -- i 1000% agree that Keaton is better in Spotlight than Ruffalo. But Ruffalo is doing the MOST ACTING and you know thow they love all caps.
BD -- i thought about that for awhile but then decided Redmayne is the type of performance that was nominated the second he was cast basically. The silent majority of voters will be all "what a transformation!"
@Volvagia - Criteria stated for number 4 was nowhere that picky, so I have no idea why Dunst can't be on that list. Her adult career definitely >>> her child-acting career. Same for Natalie Portman, though I can't personally say that the latter's acting has evolved all that much along the way.
Everyone: Sorry. Over analyzed. Does anyone else agree that Tremblay would be a good choice to act out a Robin origin if Batman v Superman bombs? Or is the genre so stale that people want it to rest long enough that Tremblay would be too old to act out the origin before the time comes to reboot Batman? Or are people just resigned to the idea that another Robin origin will be acted out with a twenty-something, if it ever is? I'd respect people saying yes to the second question, but I hate the idea of the third question being true. That mistake has been made twice before people (Chris O'Donnell and JGL) and it should NOT happen again.
Hailee Steinfeld seems a pretty apt comparison. She was the clear first lead of her film that co-starred an actor of the opposite gender and she found herself in supporting. Although with the Best Actress line-up of Portman/Bening/Kidman/Williams/Lawrence, that would have been a tough category for anyone to break into.
OK, I like this kid. I hope he stays on a good path.
//(but accomplished grown women? "Get out of the way for that little cutie, you old hag!").// That and it also speaks to the dearth of great roles for older women in general that it's easier to find room for little girls in the Oscar acting categories.
Quinn Cummings, I believe, went on to become some sort of entrepreneur. She invented a baby carrying device or something. I believe she's a mommy blogger and she's quite active and vocal on Twitter.
As Alex has already pointed out, Jacob Tremblay in Room and Haley Joel Osment in The Sixth Sense aren't an entirely valid comparison. Tremblay is the first lead in his film whereas Osment is the second. And the second lead has often caused (sometimes legitimate) category confusion irrespective of the performer's age.
Considering that the by far best child performance of 2015 was given by Abraham Attah in Beasts Of No Nation, I really don't get the attention little Jacob is enjoying. Okay, Tremblay gave a more committed performance than his co-star, but that's not that much of an achievement, since Brie Larson opted for reducing Ma to one gigantic TRAUMA!!! instead of displaying her character's complexity. And that's an unforgivable mistake judging from there fact that Room's messy screenplay did retain most of Ma's more questionable choices from the novel (albeit often in a somewhat subdued way).
Anyway, I think I can condone Jacob Tremblay as an Oscar nominee. But Brie Larson as an Oscar winner for that performance will be a temerity in my book. Yes, I do have issues with Room (both the novel and the film).
But wait a minute. What on earth is this:
"they tried to pretend that Keisha Castle Hughes (Whale Rider) was supporting even though her movie had no other leads. LOL."
Has no one on this site actually seen Whale Rider? The grandfather is the male lead and Keisha is the female lead.
"judging from there fact"
Oops. I meant "judging from the fact" of course. Why do I always have to notice typos only after I've already posted? Guess I shouldn't read my own stuff any more.