DGA, CCA, PGA: Has the race changed or was it always a free-for-all?
Sunday, February 9, 2025 at 9:20AM by Nathaniel R
Chicken or egg? Egg or chicken? Have the last two weeks of the Oscar race and the very recent prizes from the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Critics Choice Awards changed the game or were the upcoming 97th Academy Awards always this much of an "anyone's game" free-for-all wherein Anora, The Brutalist, and Emilia Perez all felt possible as the dominant film? I myself would argue for the latter. The Golden Globes (Emilia Perez dominated with 4 wins) are never the final chapter in any Oscar race, just one of its booziest most memorable chapters.
The dominant story for a week or so was the deflation Emilia Perez's, done in by a social media scandal which opened a very large window for the film's many naysayers to crash through. But it's important to remember that first industry voters loved the trans cartel musical to the breathy tune of 13 Oscar nominations...
That's a ridiculously generous number even if EP were actually great cinema! The noise and anger around its titular headliner, have made a Best Actress win impossible but wasn't that always out of reach given the dominance of Demi Moore's gorgeous brave comeback and the late surge for her most acclaimed competition Fernanda Torres? Has the EP scandal really doomed the film's chances in other categories? If voters can ignore the scandal (as they surely will) in order give the 'Best Leading Actress in a Supporting Campaign' Oscar to Zoe Saldana can't they ignore it elsewhere? Or will voters ears (again they were in LOVE with the picture just a month ago) finally be opened to the arguments against the film itself? The past week suggests so, at least in terms of actual wins in precursors.
Let's look at the latest in precursor wins (there are still more to come this week)
PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA
Theatrical Motion Picture - ANORA
Theatrical Documentary - SUPER/MAN: THE CHRISTOPHER REEVE STORY
Theatrical Animated Picture - THE WILD ROBOT
DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA
Theatrical Feature Film - Sean Baker, ANORA
First-Time Theatrical Feature Film - Ramell Ross, NICKEL BOYS
Documentary - Brendan Bellomo & Slava Leontyev, THE PORCELAIN WAR
Lifetime Achievement - Ang Lee
Robert B Aldrich Service Award - (for extraordinary service to the guild or its members) Mary Rae Thewlis
Frank Capra Achievement Award -(for Assistant Directors or Unit Production Managers)- Thomas J Whelan
Resurgent after its Golden Globe shut-out, Baker's wonderfully funny sad raucous brilliant Anora is now the one to watch at the Oscars. But it also might still be The Brutalist, which has more epic appeal (Oscar voters traditionally like their movies to feel enormous). Both films would make super winners so it's a win-win either way for audiences, if you ask me.
Nice get for Ramell Ross here. He is a previous nominee in Documentary (at both the DGAs and the Oscars) for Hale County, This Morning, This Evening (2019)
Porcelain War gets one up on its fellow Oscar nominees for Documentary (Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat and Sugarcane) with this win.
BRITISH SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS
Feature Film Lol Crawley, THE BRUTALIST
The Operators Award Karsten Bloch Jacobsen, Simon Finney, WICKED
Lifetime Achievement Dick Pope (posthumous)
Am I overthinking things or is the Best Cinematography category actually competitive this year? While it's hard to imagine Emilia Pérez or Maria winning, the other three feel viable, don't they?
COSTUME DESIGNERS GUILD OF AMERICA
Contemporary Film - Lisy Chrisl, CONCLAVE
Period Film - Linda Muir, NOSFERATU
Sci-Fi / Fantasy Film - Paul Tazewell, WICKED
These prizes went exactly as expected. Tazewell will win the Oscar but it's interesting to contemplate what might have won if Wicked weren't around or if they made two-parters or trilogies wait until the final installment for prizes. Would Nosferatu have followed Bram Stoker's Dracula (1992) as the second vampire picture to win this particular Oscar?
ANNIE AWARDS
Feature - THE WILD ROBOT (9 wins)
Independent Feature - FLOW (2 wins)
Special Production - ORION AND THE DARK (2 wins)
Short Subject - WANDER TO WONDER
The Wild Robot thoroughly dominated at the Annies winning all of its categories: Best Direction, Best Visual Effects, Best Character Design, Best Character Animation, Best Music, Best Production Design, Best Editorial, and Best Voice Acting (Lupita N'yongo). Curiously it was not nominated for Best Writing so Flow was able to win a second Annie. Flow is the only real dark horse to take the prize from The Wild Robot on Oscar night but it's quite a longshot (see also The Wild Robot's two other Oscar nominations).
The only live action prize at the Annies (Best Character Animation - Live Action) went to the Oscar nominated Visual Effects of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS
Picture - ANORA
Director - Jon M Chu, WICKED
Actress - Demi Moore, THE SUBSTANCE
Actor - Adrien Brody, THE BRUTALIST
Supporting Actress in a Leading Role - Zoe Saldana, EMILIA PÉREZ
Supporting Actor in a Leading Role - Kieran Culkin, A REAL PAIN
Young Actor/Actress - Maisy Stella, MY OLD ASS
I voted for Izaac Wang (Didi) in this category. I really wish this prize would not include adults (Maisy Stella is 21) because it kind of defeats the point of this unique category to have children compete with adults. Adults have their own categories (i.e. the big four)
Acting Ensemble - CONCLAVE
The Screen Actors Guild Awards are two weeks away on Sunday Februrary 23rd. Conclave will face off against Anora, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked. Which way will they go? I know that Conclave is the easy answer since people love it and it's not likely to win prizes anywhere outside of Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars but my guess is that this is actually a tight race. It's easy to imagine Wicked's cast at the podium, isn't it? In fact that's what I'm predicting!
Anora and A Complete Unknown would be surprises but the former has a couple of standout performances and the latter has lots of famous people in it, both of which can help in this category. And the combo of the two is why Wicked and Conclave are surely out front. It's not quite a formula per se but you catch my drift.
Original Screenplay - THE SUBSTANCE
Adapted Screenplay - CONCLAVE
Cinematography - NOSFERATU
Editing - CHALLENGERS
Costume Design - WICKED
Production Design - WICKED
Score - CHALLENGERS
Song - "El Mal" EMILIA PEREZ
Hair and Makeup - THE SUBSTANCE
Visual effects - DUNE PART TWO
Comedy [TIE] - DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE and A REAL PAIN
What a bizarre double feature.
Animated Feature - THE WILD ROBOT
Foreign Language Film - EMILIA PÉREZ
I have to admit I was surprised by Jon M Chu's win in Best Director for Wicked (since he's not up for the Oscar) given that my fellow voters in CCA love to be predictive of Oscar futures in the top categories. Elsewhere in the crafts you usually get a stronger sense of their actual preference since wins that aren't Oscar nominated are fairly common. The Emilia Pérez scandal did not stop prizes for Best Foreign Language Film, Best Original Song, and Best Supporting Actress at the CCAs.
I've been longing for France to win the Oscar for Best International Feature for so long now (their drought has lasted 32 years now!) but be careful what you wish for. Emilia Pérez is my least favourite of the nominees in Best International Feature this season so if the scandal stops any of the would have been a lock prizes, please let the also-Best-Picture-nominated I'm Still Here triumph on Oscar night. Brazil has never won so it would be a wonderful welcome outcome.
Reader Comments (18)
As things start to lock into predictable place, my strategic hope is that the EP scandal switches the vote from Zoe to Ariana.
They're both leads, so who really cares which one gets it, plus maybe a win this year preventa Ariana from winning the statue in a year where some actual supporting actresses have a legit shot.
Also, go Anora!. Vote for Yura!
In a perfect world, EP would be completely shut-out. It doesn't even deserve to win one of its 13 noms.
The songs are ridiculously bad. I'd even vote for whatever schmaltz Diane Warren threw together over anything from EP.
Hopefully we have an upset in Supporting Actress and either Grande or Rossellini slips through instead.
The Best Picture nomination for I'm Still Here gives me a little pause, so I guess I wouldn't be shocked if Torres won Best Actress. But it feels like the industry has fully locked in on Demi Moore—this is like Michelle Yeoh's race without a towering TÁR-level rival in the mix, a greatest-of-all-time performance scooping up more than half the major precursors. Moore is way less of an outsider than Yeoh and Torres is way less of an insider than Blanchett. All the differences between 2022 and 2024 benefit Moore, except (not insignificantly) that The Substance isn't a Best Picture juggernaut. But neither is I'm Still Here, so...draw.
As for Emilia Perez, live by the sword die by the sword. Elevated for reasons having nothing to do with quality, deflated for reasons (mostly) having nothing to do with quality. If we'd all just been honest from the start about that film and those performances, we wouldn't be in this mess.
DK -- well said on all counts. it's so weird to me that Greta gerwig and her jury gave EP a shared Best Actress when DEMI MOORE, MIKEY MADISON, and the leading laddies of GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE were all right there and eligible.
DK -- well said on all counts. it's so weird to me that Greta gerwig and her jury gave EP a shared Best Actress when DEMI MOORE, MIKEY MADISON, and the leading laddies of GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE were all right there and eligible.
DS -- i dont really care that the EP songs are nominated but I find it crazy that they felt it needed THREE Oscar nominations for that song score. One "El Mal" would have been just fine and much less egregious!
The thing that brings me more joy is the recognition for John M. Chu. His snub is the level of absurdity à la snubbing John Lone for The Last Emperor. So I’m glad that CCA awarded who guided that great show that Wicked is.
Without waiting any other awards session coming I bet my money on Anora. It has (the positive one) best picture energy and I said it since the first time I’ve watched it months ago
You’re all shading EP but the thing that scares me the most is that probably The Wild Robot is going to win over Flow. This is outrageous for real
My current theory is that the race was originally close between GG Comedy/Musical nominees Anora and Emilia Perez, with Drama feature The Brutalist behind in 3rd. GG went for Emilia Perez and CCA went for Anora. By the time the guilds voted, Emilia Perez was already sunk by Karla.
I see buzz after last night that Mikey could swoop in on Best Actress since Anora is such a contender now. Worse things could happen, though I still prefer Demi.
@Gallavich: Flow is stunningly beautiful and I wish it would win both categories.
I'm guessing ANORA wins Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Actress. I once thought THE BRUTALIST was going all the way, but I think that film is too challenging and alienating for the big prize.
I agree the industry wants to reward Demi,yeah!!
I hope to god Mikey Madison doesn't win,was i supposed to like or loathe her and the Russian dude as the b'f what a pain..
I don't know if i'm a lone voice but I hated hated Anora with a passion apart from Yura Borisov who would be runner up for supporting actor after Maclin.
Madison was annoying with all the screaming and swearing,what an awful bunch of people to spend 2 hrs with,no wonder no-one ever made a film about them before.
I hope it doesn't win Best Picture,i've enjoyed Red Rocket which I think is his best film and The Florida Project but this one tried my patience.
I think Saldana will win,it's very unfair if they punish her for someone else's behaviour.
I enjoyed Culkin but feel the other men are more worthy of the win than he is.
Brody is winning a second,they make the hot young men wait,not that I find him remotely attractive,he has that boyish Leo thing that puts me off.
The voting ended in early January and EP scandal broke out last week, so obviously it didn't affect their wins in CCA. Let's see how BAFTA and SAG goes...
I wonder if CCA took place when it was supposed to, during the noms voting, challengers could make in the Oscar's. So crazy that its soundtrack or editing were left out
It's been done: Hustlers, Zola, Tangerine, Spring Breakers, Eastern Promises, Showgirls, Hard Eight, The Players Club, Hardcore, Pulp Fiction, Laws of Gravity, Little Odessa...
I have only seen a few of those,Showgirls which is camp trash,Pulp Fiction which is a classic and Vincent and Jules are strangely likeable,Hardcore has George C Scott to root for,Hustlers has J Lo.
Despite your lists point the Anora bunch were still an awful lot.
Anora is right now my pick to win Best Picture and Best Director.
I like ANORA and really like Sean Baker so I'm just fine with its frontrunner status. I'm quite pleased Jon M. Chu won Best Director at the CCA! And his speech here was MUCH better than the one he gave at GG.
Mr Ripley79
I love Anora and found the main character quite sympathetic - a real tough cookie whose toughness can't mask her vulnerability. She's learned to do what she has to do to survive and she does it, not because she wants to, but because she has to. Mikey Madison is brilliant at embodying all these qualities.
Well... everybody thinking that "A Complete Unknown" was emerging as the favorite and "Anora" is surprising at this point...
It seems that "The Brutalist" really is having brutal problems with AI.
Can it still win? I don't know. But I think that, besides these three, only "Conclave" could still surprise, being the most unlikely.
About Demi, she has no real competition. I think it's very unlikely that Madison will emerge and gain so much strength in at this point.
Demi is probably the most certain winner of the year, even more than Culkin, because I think Norton can still surprise.
"Molly, you in danger, girl." You're going to win an Oscar. ❤️
DK and Nathaniel: if Gerwig's Cannes jury was going to award multiple actresses from the same film, Margaret Qualley and Demi Moore were RIGHT THERE.