Supporting Actor (and Lead Actor) Chart Updates
Tuesday, October 25, 2016 at 5:45PM tfw you always think of Best Supporting Actor as the dullest and weakest of Oscar's annual acting races but then remember it's only because of how they pick 'em because there are already more than enough stellar candidates for a truly exciting and deserving lineup and even more worthy players to come with movies left to see so this list could double in size and it's going to be so painful to say goodbye to any of these men when you have to narrow it down to a measly five at year's end and how are you going to do that exactly and why do you put yourself through this to "list"? [WHEW. Run on sentence intentional. Sometimes you have to spill and all the feelings want to come out at once.]
Twelve favorite supporting actors to date for 2016 in no particular order are pictured below. Films left to see that could affect this race include: Hell or High Water, Sully, Bleed For This, Hacksaw Ridge, Fences, and Silence... and probably a few I'm forgetting.
Of course Oscar views these things differently and Best Picture heat and level of fame helps more than it should in the acting categories. Let there be Chart Updates!
Best Actor Chart
Best Supporting Actor Chart
Best Actress Chart
Best Supporting Actress Chart
Reader Comments (26)
1. Who is Barbieri?
2. Go (movies unseen) Peter, Lucas and Mahershala!
3. So sad to see that the #1 spots on both supporting charts could be campaigned as leads.
Agree on Barbieri 110%
@Mike:
I believe that's Michael (haha) Barbieri in LITTLE MEN!
You think Bening is already a lock? Despite the late December release?
In an ideal, Ehrenreich and Fiennes would be locks. What astounding performances.
It seems rather boring over on the Actress charts like we know so end of October early who will probably be nominated,as of now Supporting Actor is the super exciting category and Best Actor not far behind,what mystery awaits us.
yes, that's Michael Barbieri in LITTLE MEN.
Glenn - perhaps i shouldn't say so but i am so gonzo in love with the performance so i imagine any Bening fans in the Academy will be too.
Mark -- there is a bit of suspense left in Best Actress and Supporting Actress I think (though the top 8 or so is solidifying in both)
All five of my current faves in Supporting Actor are on your list: (in order) Mahershala Ali, Ralph Fiennes, Alden Ehrenreich, Lucas Hedges, and Michael Barbieri. (I count Hugh Grant as a lead.) In the tradition of terrible Supporting Actor nominees, I'm sure few if any of them will be nominated (maybe Ali or Hedges?) in favor of so-so performances by veteran actors in this year's BP contenders. But let's bang the gong just in case!
I'd trade Negga for Adams/Streep.
Is it possible for Kristen Stewart to get a nom for Billy Lynn? Some people said that she's the MVP.
And what is happening with The Founder? I need Keaton to get his (late for 2year) Oscar.
Neeson is a lock for the win if Silence really opens this year.
I doubt that Moonlight will get any Oscar play, considering the Academy's history, but if it does, I'll be very happy.
I think that top 5 in your best actor list seems pretty accurate. Can Affleck pull off a win? He has been universally acclaimed. I guess Edgerton is the most iffy, but who would replace him? The only one I can really see is Andrew Garfield for Silence if he really wows. I really don't think the Academy will be too keen to welcome back a Gibson return so soon.
That supporting actor category is confusing as hell. I think Bridges should be higher and Michael Shannon is getting all the MVP notices in Nocturnal Animals and I think he is overdue for a second nomination after Take Shelter and 99 Homes.
Nat does Andre Holland stand a chance in this category? I love him in The Knick and his stupendous in Moonlight in my opinion.
Aaron: A lot of Supporting Actor is about BP coattails, though. So Patel, Neeson, Sarsgaard, Grant and Ali looks plausible. I'd hope for Rickman over Grant (Grant's a more limited instrument as far as "good performance" goes, so I wouldn't resent him having a 0 nomination record like I resent Rickman's 0 nomination record (watch Harry Potter and Dogma/Truly Madly Deeply back to back and weep at that record. Can you find a similar extreme dichotomy in Grant's career?)
Note: That isn't one of Grant's bad performances. (Wouldn't want you to cheat and watch American Dreamz or Did You Hear About the Morgans?, after all.)
I think all of those supporting actors look possible in Nathaniel's list. I think a lot of us may be underestimating Hell or High Water, however. It was a sizable box-office success, critically acclaimed, and could potentially capsize on a SAG ensemble nod. I think picture, screenplay, supporting actor, and cinematography are certainly in play.
Silence remains a big question mark and could certainly put Liam Neeson, Tadanobu Asano, and Adam Driver in the conversation, depending on who has the most effective part.
Ehrenreich, Ali and Rhodes would be locks in my books.
I wonder if Driver will get a supporting push for Silence so that he and Garfield don't compete in lead. Or maybe Garfield's lead contender is really Hacksaw Ridge opening in November, it will be seen by more early voters like SAG and HFPA.
Mark S -- i suppose any of them could but my sense is that voting will coalesce around Mahershara Ali and Naomie Harris who have both been really sturdy frequently employed actors for some time and they'd be great representatives of the film.
Pawar got good notices for Lion too. Perhaps he'll be campaigned in supporting with Patel or Patel will be lead. Didn't we find out about Viola because of a SAG submission? Is the Lion news out yet?
I think Nat the suspense will come from who is in 5th place in the Actress charts.
I sense that Ralph Fiennes is going to be overlooked again, for yet another year best-of-that-category performance. What's up with that? Does he just not campaign?
The more movies that premiere to mixed reviews, the more I think critics and the Academy may reach back to Hail, Caesar!, especially in tech categories, and I also think Ehrenreich is a strong player in the supporting actor mix.
I want to see Ehrenreich nominated more than any other actor/actress I've seen this year. These supporting lists are making me even more excited to see Moonlight and Jackie (if that's possible).
Fiennes and Ehrenreich are so deserving, but we all know they won't make it in. Sight unseen I'd be happy with Sarsgaard, Ali and Shannon (it seems like he should have about 5 nominations by now).
Of all the supporting actors in Moonlight, my picks would actually be Holland and Sanders (teen Chiron), although I'd be fine with all three Chirons, Holland and Ali taking all five slots.
Craver: You say that Moonlight will not get any Oscar attention due to "the Academy's history". I beg to differ. Let's look at recent examples:
M. Leo in Frozen River
J. Lawrence and J. Hawkes in Winter's Bone
G. Sidibe and Mon'Nique in Precious
Q Wallis in Beast of...
S. Ronan in Brooklyn
I totally think Alden and/or especially Fiennes could make it in. Fiennes is a major favorite in a balls-out (literally) part. I can see him nominated by most critics groups for sure and then oscar has to take a look.
I think this chart should be frozen. It is the exact 20 I expect to receive nominations. Brilliant.