Which actors will Oscar celebrate this year?
Monday, May 2, 2016 at 5:01PM We've discussed Best Actress and the overall April Foolish Predictions so let's talk Best Actor & Supporting Actor
First, we have to wonder what it will take to get Tom Hanks back in Oscar's shortlist. His last two acclaimed hits have wound up with Best Supporting Actor & Best Picture nominations but Hanks was passed over in both cases. If the same thing happens with Aaron Eckhart in the co-pilot seat of Sully, the famous story of the pilot who successfully crash landed a plane on the Hudson, we'll have a bonafide trend and not just a coincidence. That's what I'm currently predicting though of course it's all fun and games now before we see the films. And before we even know about several competitors as the year doesn't really get going until the fall according to Oscar voters.
The pressure is off Birth of a Nation... at least a little bit. Several films with actors of color look promising this year, so it needn't be the sole standard bearerIn other acting category predictions, I feel confident in saying that we'll see the end of the dread #OscarsSoWhite controversy. Or, rather, the issue will persist (Hollywood having white male imbalance problems) but it will take a different shape, less focused on the Oscar's acting branch which was an easy but unfortunate scapegoat of a much larger Hollywood problem. The Acting branch has always been the most inclusive and diverse of any Oscar branch but the uproar and embarrassing photo ops of the past two years -- as well as, yes, too-defensive quotes from some famous actors themselves -- have convinced the public otherwise. With more racially diverse dramas being released this year (Fences, Birth of a Nation, A United Kingdom, Loving, Lion and possibly more) it should be an easy fix; AMPAS members can only vote for films and performances that are eligible. My sincere hope is that we see a few Latino or Asian nominees in the mix soon so we can move past this idea that racial identity and diversity are binaries. But first people will have to start actually casting Latin and Asian actors in movies. Wouldn't that be nice. It's especially rough for Asian actors since they nearly always change their characters to white characters between source material and production.
[Tangent for Hard Core Fans: Despite the difficulty of predicting a full slate of nominees this far in advance I don't actually do a poor job of it. Even in the below the line craft lineups I tend to score two of five before we've seen any films. This sounds easy but I assure you it's not. Try it one year in April and save your list with no changes ever each time you hear news or release date shifts thereafter and see how many remain at the end of the year. Best Actor remains my best category in terms of flying that blind. In 2013 and 2015 I correctly guessed 4 of the 5 nominees this early which is really something. And in 2001 and 2008 the scores would have also been that incredible but for the business of men being nominated the next year instead. - Nathaniel]
Reader Comments (16)
Or how Michael Pena should have had a plump show-off opportunity or two in 2013? Seriously, though neither would have suddenly become great, he probably should have replaced Cumberbatch and Damon in Star Trek Into Darkness and Elysium respectively.
You know that one way or another they will nominate a minority actor !
I hope they don't celebrate nate parker, because... that past.
The past that he was cleared of? Because no one was arrested or charged in the alleged rape.
I mean someone else was arrested and charged with the rape. Parker was cleared.
Those homophobic comments will haunt Nate Parker as well. I think it could all get ugly, since his friend (the convicted rapist) co-wrote Birth of a Nation.
ANYWAYS I'm hoping Oyelowo will get in this year. Simon Helberg is getting a lot of good notices too, along with Hugh Grant, in Florence Foster Jenkins.
Ryan: Okay, here's what I'm guessing happened. That friend (who also got off later) had written a (bad) script version of the Nat Turner story with that title and given him a copy on a USB or something during the trial. He read it, red lining every dumb line or potential inaccuracy but saw the potential in the idea and, especially, the title. He got to researching, tightening up the inaccuracies and excising the dumb lines. All that, though, still isn't enough to justify cutting that guy out of story by credit.
Or, they'll nominate Matthew McConaughey (spelling, I know) for the Free State of Jones and no one from The Birth of a Nation.
Also, there will be more non-white performers in the musical categories than white performers, so think about that for a second.
"Or how Michael Pena should have had a plump show-off opportunity or two in 2013?"
Yeah, I feel like two of the biggest "victims" of Hollywood casting are Michael Pena and Rosario Dawson. Both have shined so bright and work regularly, but don't seem to get the true plum roles that they deserve - if they were white I have little doubt both would have had much better opportunities to show off and would be MUCH bigger stars at this point.
Does Colin Farrell have a shot for The Lobster?
Anonny: Yes, someone with Pena's skill level who was white probably would have gotten huge, but the two roles I went on to mention are ones that probably should have been earmarked for Pena specifically BECAUSE of his ethnic background. Benedict Pastybatch as the new Khan? Matt Damon as a former car thief on parole in future Los Angeles? The former is more blatant than the latter, but that he probably wasn't even considered for either is really bad.
Does Colin Farrell have a shot for The Lobster?
His movie is preventing him from having a shot.
@brookesboy: Colin Farrell is perfectly weird and wonderful in The Lobster. The movie itself is great (especially if you love dark humor) and should be a sizeable indie hit if the marketing is right. It's just not the type of movie the Academy go for, I think.
Cliff Curtis should be nominated for his mesmerizing performance in "The Dark Horse"
Hi Jija, thanks for the info! I have been enjoying Colin's resurgence and this sounds like my type of movie. I wish the Academy would take its blinders off and embrace more films like this. The fact that Birdman deservedly nabbed Best Picture still blows my mind!
What bugs me so much about #OscarsSoWhite was how it mainly focused on how there were no black nominees. That was unfortunate, don't get me wrong, but the controversy made it seem like there aren't other races that got left out (Latinos, Asians, Native Americans, etc.) or openly gay actors since diversity is more than just skin color.
But thankfully, there are plenty of chances for blacks as well as people of other races (Oscar Isaac and Shohreh Asghdashloo for The Promise, Dev Patel for Lion, Tadanobu Asano for Silence, maybe Mira Nair could have a chance to make history for Queen of Katwe) to get in. We shall see how all these films do though.