Best Actress - Who will dance with Oscar?
Thursday, September 22, 2016 at 4:00PM While Best Actress remains the most impressively competitive category, the buzz has been so deafening on Natalie Portman and Emma Stone's work in Jackie and La La Land respectively, that we have our first acting nomination "locks" of the year. Yes, I hate to use the word so early -- i generally prefer not to use it until after a film has opened -- but in this case it applies.
Short of either of these well loved actresses murdering someone casually or becoming a spokesperson for Trump on his campaign trail their traction for Best Actress is a done deal. Having now seen both pictures it's tough to imagine either of them missing; their movies are probable Best Picture Contenders which hang on their every flickering bit of feeling. And they've both got multiple "clips" galore for award show reels, clips that will look like "of course she won the Oscar!" in retrospect should either of them manage the win.
So spots three through five is where the true competition is. Most people feel that Ruth Negga is a given for Loving -- though how a movie fares in release is often a factor and it's not out yet. One worrying factor is that she's significantly less famous than most of her competition. Everyone is banking on Viola Davis being spectacular in Fences but we must remind everyone (and also ourselves despite our raggedy "Team Viola" t-shirts!) that nobody has seen the picture; history has many examples of stage-to-screen transfers that underwhelmed. Beyond those two we have Oscar regulars like Meryl Streep (always a threat even if she doesn't campaign), Amy Adams (always a threat and always campaigns hard), and Annette Bening (unless the movie is waiting too long to make its move). And then there's "critical darling" possiblities like Isabelle Huppert. I've been harping on this for some time, I know, but I remain convinced that she could happen as a nominee. Natalie & Emma being so far out front actually makes passion votes more important because with both of them sucking up so many votes, other women will need to stick out in the hearts of voters to fight their way in.
It's also fair to wonder what Globe Comedy/Musical nominations could do to boost profiles of particular actresses. Hmmmm...
GLOBE COMEDY / MUSICAL ACTRESS
the possibilities
Lock-ish
Stone - La La Land
Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins
It's easy to imagine them as nominees...
Field - Hello My Name is Doris
Beckinsale - Love & Friendship
Winslet - the Dressmaker
But the Globes can surprise. What about...
Huppert -Elle
Sarandon - The Meddler
Zellweger - Bridget Jones's Baby
anyone else?
New Best Actress Oscar Prediction Chart. What'cha think?
Reader Comments (61)
Thanks, Paul, for that side-by-side of Amy and Emily. I've always had them connected in my mind, their rise so seemingly intertwined -- SUNSHINE CLEANING is still remembered as a bit of a let-down, as they both seemed primed to succeed hand in hand.
It's worth noting that a lot of these roles are ones that were first offered to the other and vice versa -- THE FIGHTER, for instance, was first meant for Emily.
Would love to see them pair together with Denis, who clearly did amazing work with each.
Or how about a return to sisters with Woody Allen?
I'd love to see Emily take on a va-va-voom movie star role, a la Kim Basinger in LA CONFIDENTIAL or Kate Beckinsale in THE AVIATOR.
@ Steve
Yes! And it's funny you mention Beckinsale, because I think of her as an earlier model Blunt: talented and witty (see this episode of The Graham Norton Show), possibly hamstrung (as a serious actress) by her beauty.
Streep or Adams included in the final five will sully the lineup.
Portman
Stone
Davis
Bening
Huppert
This will be the year to prove Amy Adams is the ultimate coattail player right? When she's not in a BP player with bigger, better stars, The Academy will always look elsewhere, poor thing.
maybe sully your line up ... but not mine
Adams
Beckinsale
Bening
Blunt
Braga
Chastain
Hall
Huppert
Mara
Negga
Pike
Portman
Stone
Streep
Out of these ladies I hope for:
Beckinsale
Huppert
Negga
Portman
Pike
Emma and Natalie heat is ageist BS.
Geek Love adaptation with Meryl Streep and Rami Malek is happening.
Amy Adams or Annette Bening should get it.
Will the studio try and mangle PASSENGERS into comedy? There are rom-com aspects to it, right?
Nicole Kidman for The family Fang.
Yeah, When Harry Met Sally for SciFi nerds? I get a bad vibe off that project, like the Channing Tatum Turkey.
I believe Viola Davis has Best Actress in the bag. The 4 other nominees will come from the folliowing;- Ruth Negga, Emma Stone, Jessica Chastain, Annette Bening, Amy Adams and the two wildcards - Isabelle Huppert and Sonia Braga. Huppert has - shamefully - NEVER been nominated and 'Elle' is one of her best performances ever. And Braga has not only delivered a wonderful performance in 'Aquarius' but there is the added incentive that she was snubbed for Kiss of the Spider Woman, it's a 'career' acknowledgement and of course - the political crisis in Brazil and the snubbing of the film for the Foreign Language category.
My predictions ;- Braga, Chastain, Davis, Huppert and Stone.
Sorry Meryl - although you were brilliant in Florence - the fact you have been nominated a million times will backfire on you ....and 2017 will be the year that BLACK ACTORS MATTER.