Best Actress - Who will dance with Oscar?
Thursday, September 22, 2016 at 4:00PM While Best Actress remains the most impressively competitive category, the buzz has been so deafening on Natalie Portman and Emma Stone's work in Jackie and La La Land respectively, that we have our first acting nomination "locks" of the year. Yes, I hate to use the word so early -- i generally prefer not to use it until after a film has opened -- but in this case it applies.
Short of either of these well loved actresses murdering someone casually or becoming a spokesperson for Trump on his campaign trail their traction for Best Actress is a done deal. Having now seen both pictures it's tough to imagine either of them missing; their movies are probable Best Picture Contenders which hang on their every flickering bit of feeling. And they've both got multiple "clips" galore for award show reels, clips that will look like "of course she won the Oscar!" in retrospect should either of them manage the win.
So spots three through five is where the true competition is. Most people feel that Ruth Negga is a given for Loving -- though how a movie fares in release is often a factor and it's not out yet. One worrying factor is that she's significantly less famous than most of her competition. Everyone is banking on Viola Davis being spectacular in Fences but we must remind everyone (and also ourselves despite our raggedy "Team Viola" t-shirts!) that nobody has seen the picture; history has many examples of stage-to-screen transfers that underwhelmed. Beyond those two we have Oscar regulars like Meryl Streep (always a threat even if she doesn't campaign), Amy Adams (always a threat and always campaigns hard), and Annette Bening (unless the movie is waiting too long to make its move). And then there's "critical darling" possiblities like Isabelle Huppert. I've been harping on this for some time, I know, but I remain convinced that she could happen as a nominee. Natalie & Emma being so far out front actually makes passion votes more important because with both of them sucking up so many votes, other women will need to stick out in the hearts of voters to fight their way in.
It's also fair to wonder what Globe Comedy/Musical nominations could do to boost profiles of particular actresses. Hmmmm...
GLOBE COMEDY / MUSICAL ACTRESS
the possibilities
Lock-ish
Stone - La La Land
Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins
It's easy to imagine them as nominees...
Field - Hello My Name is Doris
Beckinsale - Love & Friendship
Winslet - the Dressmaker
But the Globes can surprise. What about...
Huppert -Elle
Sarandon - The Meddler
Zellweger - Bridget Jones's Baby
anyone else?
New Best Actress Oscar Prediction Chart. What'cha think?
Reader Comments (61)
Natalie - Emma - Viola - Huppert - Adams
Or
Natalie - Emma - Viola - Huppert - Braga (my wish dreams!!! *-*)
With Villa supporting:
Natalie - Emma - Adams - Huppert - Braga (what a lovely big five!!!)
I'm by no means a die-hard Amy Adams fan but your decision to leave her out of the top 5 ---considering we've seen Arrival and love it --- is weirding me out...
Bening in Drama and Huppert in Comedy?? A hunch or info?
the former is a hunch. The latter is the truth (Elle is definitely a comedy... though who knows. perhaps they'll try for drama... which would be a mistake given the competition)
Amy Adams, in my opinion, is now in #4 if Viola stays lead.
Yes she is in sci-fi, and yes she doesn't do platesmashing but:
1/ Her role is very emotional and plays well on that - hence passion
2/Her film will likely fare better, both awards wise and BO wise, then stuff like 20th Century women, Elle or Loving
3/Her film has *passion* from those who like it. It's a very passion-driven film
4/As we've seen recently, sci-perfs can get nominated (Bullock, Damon).
My predictions: Portman, Davis, Stone, Bening, and Adams. Unwise to bet against Streep I know but the competition is just too fierce this year.
I think Negga will be the "miss" this year a la John Hawkes, Jake Gyllenhaal, and Tom Hanks.
I want Negga to category fraud herself down.
Negga isn't going to get frauded down by Focus Features, Amy Adams will be.
I do not see the Academy "Owing" Davis anything... she lis an excellent actress, but really ... how many movies has she been showcased in.. The Help and??
She has been around fro years and is a very good actress.. I really hope she gets a nom for Fences.. but owed... I have trouble with ... actually with any actress I have a lot of trouble with that word....
how many movies has she been showcased in
Less than her white counterparts.
I love Emma Stone, but I'm kind of dreading her win, the backlash will be harsh and deafening.
Streep is not sitting this year out.......
Erik Anderson: How large is her role in Nocturnal Animals really, though? If she played Susan Morrow AND Laura Hastings (which you think would be the natural option), it'd be fraud. But as is, I'd say it's probable only Gyllenhaal can really lay claim to lead status for Nocturnal Animals. Edgerton might get nudged down to supporting for Loving if Focus feels they have a better bet with Jake G.
jamie: She'll get the Globe nod and if Grant gets the Supporting Actor category fraud nomination, it'll be partially to allow the inclusion of Streep reaction shots on the broadcast.
Let's collectively shut up for a moment and appreciate Rosamund Pike's performance in Massive Attack's Voodoo In My Blood video. Now that's awesome work!
Volvagia, it's not the size of Adams' role that will dictate whether or not FF moves her to supporting - it's that they won't want her to compete with Negga and with Adams herself in Paramount's Arrival. I don't see a scenario in which FF pushes Negga or Edgerton down to supporting at all.
JB - I've never thought Emma was all that talented, but I'm already starting to soften toward her because I can feel the backlash coming, and I think it's unfortunate when public opinion turns against women because they're too successful.
Streep is getting better reviews for Florence than she did for Into the Wood or August Osage County.
Her August nomination happened with mixed reviews in a very competitive best actress category.
Maybe they will pull her in for "reaction shots" if Hugh gets supporting OR they may want to take advantage of the historic event of her getting her 20th nomination.
I don't think the Annette Bening thing is going to happen. It seems dead quiet. And I know the premiere is very soon at NYFF, but nobody is talking about it unlike FENCES.
The ELLE/Huppert stuff is frustrating because, as somebody who hasn't seen it yet, I want the focus for the potential international slot to be on Sonia Braga. Regarding Huppert though, is THINGS TO COME coming out this year, too? She's also great in that, too.
This Meryl Streep thing seems so weird. I know she gets nominated for a lot, but really?
I find it hard to believe Negga will got supporting.
I am seeing ... Benning, Davis, Portman, Stone, Streep, Adams as the strongest, so that means one lady will be left sitting alone on the bus to Crytown.
Never bet against Streep.
SO MANY GOOD CHOICES! Very probable top 10:
Portman
Stone
Streep
Bening
Adams
Davis
Negga
Huppert
Blunt
Chastain
Outside of that, I think it will be an uphill battle.
I want them all to be nommed ugh
I saw "The Meddler" on my flight to Los Angeles with the hope of being entertained, but ended up being more interested in the flight attendant, who was distributing dinner. It was a bad movie.
The possibility of Natalie Portman denying Annette Bening an Oscar AGAIN makes me wish for Bening to not even get the nomination in the first place. (I like Portman, but poor Bening!)
No mention of Taraji at all?
Blunt's British and nine years younger. Is that what's made the difference in their careers so far? Or was it just that first Oscar nod that's given Adams the edge?
2004-5:
Amy Adams - Junebug (first Oscar nomination)
Emily Blunt - My Summer of Love (multiple newcomer awards), Gideon's Daughter (Golden Globe)
2006:
Adams - The Office, Talladega Nights, The Ex, Tenacious D in the Pick of Destiny
Blunt - The Devil Wears Prada (Globe nomination), Irresistible
2008:
Adams - Sunshine Cleaning, Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day, Doubt (second Oscar nomination)
Blunt - Sunshine Cleaning (scattered nominations), The Great Buck Howard
2009-10:
Adams - The Fighter (third Oscar nomination), Night at the Museum 2, Julie & Julia, Leap Year
Blunt - The Young Victoria (lots of nominations and scattered wins; still no Oscar nod), Wild Target (?), The Wolfman, Gulliver's Travels
2013-14:
Adams - The Master (fourth Oscar nomination), Man of Steel, Her, American Hustle, (Golden Globe, fifth Oscar nomination), Lullaby (?), Big Eyes (Golden Globe)
Blunt - Edge of Tomorrow, Into the Woods
2016:
Blunt - The Huntsman: Winter's War, The Girl on the Train
Adams - Arrival, Nocturnal Animals
Paul: The first nomination helps, but there's also the perception that Adams has ACTUAL range, not TONAL range. Emily Blunt's shown a mastery of tone performance, wherein she can adjust the kind of one character (beyond tone and level of physical activity, how much separates Rita Vranski from The Baker's Wife, Sara from Looper or Kate Mercer on a persona level?) she can really play in a variety of tones, but that's not the same thing as conventional range.
The foreign actress you should be talking about is Sandra Huller in Toni Erdmann. Tell me when you see the movie. I love Huppert in Elle, but I can't see female voters backibg such a caustic character, no matter how excellent is the performance.
@ Volvagia
I would juxtapose The Young Victoria, The Devil Wears Prada, Edge of Tomorrow and Sunshine Cleaning to show Blunt's "conventional" range. And then Mary Poppins.
The more I think about it, it comes down to that Junebug nomination. I think Adams is great, but there's something basic about her persona, whereas Blunt exudes old school movie star glamour. But with three of her next four credits being voice work, I really hope The Girl on the Train is stunning.
@ cal roth
Sandra Hüller is outstanding in Toni Erdmann, but it's a thankless role, especially for a German actress.
I just hope that Isabelle Huppert gets an overdue Oscar nod.
I just really hope Isabelle will be finally nominated, although I haven't seen Elle yet...
Otherwise my top5 actresses this year of the films I've seen this far (I guess only the last on this list has any chance of a nom):
Sandra Hüller - Toni Erdmann
Malin Levanon - Tjuvheder
Regina Case - Que horas ela volta?
Tao Zhao - Shan he gu ren
Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins
Why is anyone even FLOATING the idea of Amy Adams as supporting in Nocturnal Animals?! That's the most absurd thing I've ever heard (other than Trump's campaign), as she is the lead of the film. Tough shit that she has two leading performances coming out at the end of the year, but quit with the frauding. Arrival seems like the more Academy friendly role anyways. I'm not even convinced in the slightest that the Academy will bite for NA, except maybe a supporting nod for Michael Shannon.
Predicting Bening in this competitive field is risky. I feel like that is your wishful thinking spot - she should be towards the end of tier 2.
Right now?
Tier one: Adams, Portman, Stone, Davis (as long as they avoid category confusion quickly)
Tier two: Huppert, Streep (the best precursor is to be named Meryl Streep), Blunt (accrued career points and if the film is a solid hit), Henson (I really think Hidden Figures is going to do well, though)
Tier three: Negga, Chastain, Braga, Bening
I think I should make some buzz for Amy Adams, as her performance in Nocturnal Animals seems real different from her plays before and looks very remarkabale. She deserves a seat in Top 5.
Just hearing reviews, it sounded like Stone, Portman and Adams were done deals. I assumed Negga was also in, but the film is getting less buzz than I expected. Fences is a major player and needs to be seen NOW. I assume Davis will stick the landing and I assume it will be between her and Stone for the win. I don't think the Academy's dying to give Portman a second so soon, and Adams being genre will keep her from a win. (She's at six nods then, though. You better believe the next time she's in the conversation, her record will be the campaign.)
I'd still lean towards Negga for the fifth spot, but it could easily be Streep. In another year Huppert seems likely, but it's so crowded and there's controversy around her film. Poor Blunt will be a bridesmaid again, and much as I love Bening, I'm just not buying her in a Mills film as being quite this level of competitive. Thrilled to see all of the above though, as well as Chastain and Henson, who really needs to be somewhere on the Actress page. LOVE a year this competitive in this category.
I'm fine with Viola, Natalie and Emma as nominees but I'm not fine with this-Academy-owing-Viola-the-Oscar (or anyone for that matter).
THANK YOU JANS
It's weird and off-putting.
I think your top five are the five. But I desperately want Krisha to get some buzz. Ann Dowd got a near miss once; surely Krisha can too?
I have a sneaking suspicion that people are underestimating Rebecca Hall in Christine, and that the final five may turn out to be Stone, Portman, Davis, Hall, and either Hupert or Negga.
Doubt that Christine will get any traction at all. Does it even have a distributor?
Predicting Bening in this competitive field is risky. I feel like that is your wishful thinking
Bening secured nominations in 2004 and 2010 extremely competitive years for Best Actress.
It Winslet gets in for The Dressmaker I will cry. The only good thing about that film is Judy Davis (some of the time).
I don't want this to get locked up with Emma Stone and Natalie Portman too soon but to stay ultra-competitive for the next few months with lots of different actresses sharing awards and spreading the wealth. It's been such a great year for actressing it would be a shame it only a few hogged all the attention.
@Paul Outlaw
It's not a thankless role. She is not only the butt of jokes - she overcomes this position by adding incredibly wicked humor and sexyness and heart. She can go from those initial embarassing scenes to the petit four scene to that rollercoaster final hour like a master. That is range!
I think it's the most difficult character I've seen in years (ok, not including Huppert's part in Elle).
@ cal roth
Thankless in that it's the epitome of the cold, uptight, Teutonic businesswoman. Yes, there's more to it to than that and Hüller gives the role all kinds of shading (although I wouldn't say that "sexy" is one of them), especially in the last act. But let's agree to disagree.
I think Renee has a bigger shot than Kate
I'm with Nathaniel in predicting Bening in the 5th spot. Because there are no other NYFF Oscar movies that haven't already played elsewhere, she will have a chance to get a lot of buzz out of the festival. Give it a couple of weeks. I bet she will be what people talk about in terms of Oscar coming out of NYFF.
Ruth Negga is so lovely in Loving. In a year this fierce though, I feel like not being an established name might knock her out. I don't see Loving being a passionate top three picture category to automatically include her either.For instance - If she were the star of La La Land - I'd say she'd be in - but here's hoping. I think it will be between Portman, Stone, Adams (Arrival), Streep, Huppert and the unseen Davis and Bening.
As this site's moderator mentioned, the Golden Globe comedy category is very important. More often than not, the winner is nominated for an Oscar; filling in one of the five slots. I feel positive that 20th Century Women will be in the comedy category. My predictions for the Globe comedy actress are: Beckinsale, Bening, Field, Stone, Streep. Obviously, Stone will be the winner.
Drama actress will likely be Davis if the film strikes a chord. As Natheniel Rogers keeps mentioning, nobody's seen Fences yet. Everybody's routing for it, but nobody knows what the end product will be. I hope it's a big hit. Does anybody remember when family dramas like On Golden Pond were major money makers at Christmas?