A Best Picture think... what if there were only five?
Wednesday, December 11, 2019 at 12:30PM by Nathaniel R
Consensus is taking clear shape with film critics and awards bodies. They're finding Parasite the very best film of 2019 fairly regularly now. In terms of both critics and larger more 'industry' organizations Martin Scorsese's elegaic The Irishman is leading the English language films in nomination counts and prizes. Noah Baumbach's impressive superbly-acted dramedy Marriage Story and Tarantino's shape-shifting gorgeously executed 1969 homage Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are not far behind in the collective love sweepstakes. That could mean that any of those four will be vying for the Best Picture win at the Oscars in February. With the preferential ballot it helps to have passion votes and all of them have that. It also helps to be everyone's second or third favourite and each of those films could theoretically score high on virtually any voter's ballot.
But what's in fifth place?
Since 2011 rules have been in place to deliver between 5 to 10 Best Picture nominees depending on percentages of votes. To date, though, this system has only produced years with either 8 or 9 nominees for the top prize. But a though exercize today. Which of the remaining films would make it in a year with only 5 films in play...
1917
It's interesting that this instantly acclaimed World War I drama 1917 hasn't been able to break out with any critics group yet beyond cinematography or craft citations given the ecstacy that greeted its first couple of screenings in NYC and LA. Remember on the podcast how we cautioned "first!" viewers to be a little more careful in their tweet frenzies before credits have even rolled on the film in question; we weren't saying it without good reason! Would 1917 make it all the way to Best Picture or would it be a film people respected more than loved, like an Empire of the Sun (1987) or a with plentiful nominations but landing outside the final list?
Joker
Yes, it technically falls under the "superhero" genre umbrella (despite the complete absence of superheroes) and Oscar doesn't like those much. On the other hand, Oscar has always dug Batman movies (look it up) and they're also in love with Martin Scorsese films which Joker desperately mimics at every turn. Oscar voters are often allergic to genre films but when they go there it's almost always for a film that is a box office smash and true phenomenons are often irresistable to voters and this Todd Phillips film more than qualifies on both counts. Would it be a slam dunk because of that?
Jojo Rabbit / The Two Popes / Knives Out
It's hard to discount that TIFF People's Choice win for the former AND its SAG ensemble win or general crowd-pleasing joy for the latter two. These are obviously the leading "lightweight" contenders this season (lightweight not being an insult but a perception description). Even if you dont think any of them will be up for several Oscars it's a mistake to assume that the five nomination leaders would always be the top five when it comes to Best Picture. All Oscar history prior to 2011 suggests that that's folly. Popularity matters even if there aren't a slew of sure-thing nominations to buttress a film's Best Picture dreams.
Little Women
Oscar is unfortunately very "boy movie" focused year in and year out, regularly opting for movies that might be described as feminine only if they're closer to co-ed pleasures (like romantic dramas). Though it seems impossible to believe it's absolutely true that there hasn't been a Best Picture shortlist dominated by leading ladies rather than leading men since (gulp) 1987 which is BANANAS since women make up half the human race. Little Women also missed the SAG nominations this year which is a rough. On the other hand, Greta Gerwig surprised with much love for Lady Bird, despite the Oscar-obstacles of being female centric and a comedy. Plus the reviews are glowing and it's a real reworking of the material rather than a lazy nostalgia play. Might it be stronger on Oscar nomination morning than people are expecting?
Ford V Ferrari
A little from the 1917 column in terms of craft pleasures, a little from the Knives Out column in terms of audience love -- it's a real hit! Old fashioned but well crafted entertainments with populist cred have often appealed to Oscar voters. Is this true story racing drama going in stronger than we think despite the Globe shutout beyond Christian Bale?
Call me crazy but I'm leaning towards Joker as being in 5th place, rather than 1917 or Jojo Rabbit. What'cha think?
Reader Comments (39)
JoJo Rabbit
Ford v. Ferrari. Seems like typical Oscar fare, and well executed.
So you just ignored The Farewell?
@beyaccount
With 5 noms, it's doubtful The Farewell would make it.
I think the 5th slot would go to Little Women. I see it doing a lot better with Oscars.
This is pure foolish speculation, but if it were a five-nominee year, I’d currently be predicting a 3/5 split in Picture/Director, with JoJo Rabbit being the fifth Best Picture nominee, but both Baumbach and Waititi missing out in Best Director in favor of Mendes and Gerwig (yes, I’m still feeling a Best Director nomination for her even if Little Women is only 8th in my personal Best Picture predictions).
Of course, Joker is the 5th! It has made like 200 billions dollars.
Peggy Sue, for once we agree.
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. 1917
7. Joker
Then a large gap down to a handful of contenders all pretty close together in the 8-10 range, so it'll be interesting to see which and how many make it in: The Two Popes, The Farewell, Little Women, Ford v Ferrari.
With Bombshell, Uncut Gems, Knives Out, and Richard Jewell further on the outside with time to still gain traction.
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Joker would've been Dark Knight-ed out of the final five. And I think for best director, Scorsese/Baumbach/Tarantino/Joon-ho/Mendes. 1917 seems to be viewed as a major directorial achievement.
Please let Letts come along on Bale's coattails in F v F which is such an easy watch and really enjoyable,you can't hate anything about it.
God, I hope it's not Joker. Blech!!
I so wish they would go back to five. Best Picture meant so much more back then.
Gorgeous executed is generous.
I'm pretty sure "Jojo Rabbit" and "1917 would be fighting it out for #5.....
I also wish they would go back to five nominees....unless it means "Jojo" doesn't get the fifth slot.
Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker
Why?
It’s a perfect Hollywood story.
After 40 some years of Star Wars, Hollywood recognizes the classic and iconic series that has meant so much to so many people around the world.
Some of these single movies of this year will fade and be forgotten, but the satisfaction of knowing that Star Wars was given a proper send off will remain.
I've seen the 4 frontrunners and feel they are deserving frontrunners. Of the 7 movies listed for that 5th slot I've only seen one (JoJo) and only genuinely want to see Little Women and 1917. The others are of varying degrees of interest to me, with The Joker being at the very bottom...but any year you can get even 3 really strong BP nominees is notable. It's been a pretty good year, all in all.
I think it would be JoJo Rabbit. The Reader taught us that the Oscar will always go for the WWII movie (sorry 1917 but you picked the wrong war)
" Taxi Clown" I mean "Joker" will be nominated for best actor.
Joker.
Followed by:
1917
Jojo Rabbit
Ford v. Ferrari
Not counting on Little Women and Two freaking Popes.
My personal pick would be Us
As for the Academy taste, I doubt that Parasite will hold the momentum it has now, and Oscar always has bias for foreign films.
The other two of my picks are 1917 - Jojo Rabbit/ The Two Popes (Oscar likes sentimentality)
But truly, even with only 5 picks, Oscar tend to pick crowd-pleasing but forgettable films such as: Seabiscuits (2003) - Finding Neverland (2004), Babe (1995) and the list goes on
I am not so sure Parasite will get nominated if only 5 slots. It certainly has a shot.
But there won’t be just five films nominated for Oscars. BAFTA is another story. I think 1917 is a given. In a just world Pain and Glory would be in the mix but Parasite has stolen all the foreign picture spotlight. I do hope Little Women sneaks in as all the Academy finally watches it around the holidays. I’m seeing it at MOMA next week.
Joker.
We now usually get a really cool nominee that wouldn't have made the five in the old system AND we get this exercise in conjecture every year, which is pretty much a freebie piece of content for you that is actually interesting. Fuck the five!
I personally see closer to ten than five really great movies worth commending most years. I don't think it lessens anything, and anecdotally I've only heard typically douchey people put forth that line.
I'd luv to say Little Women, Jojo Rabbit or Knives Out, but deep down, we all kno tt 1917, Joker n FvF are more to Academy taste on what makes the top 5.
So it's a actually a blessing tt we hav an expanded field, so tt Parasite, Little Women n Jojo Rabbit, etc all hav a good chance to be recognised!
I think the best thing about the expanded field is that we get to have Best Picture campaigns for a movie like Parasite. It’s now in the top 5, but had the expanded field not existed, it probably would have focused all its efforts on International Film instead, because a BP nod would’ve been less likely.
For this thought experiment though, I have to go with Jojo Rabbit or Little Women. Jojo because it really is a crowd pleaser. Little Women is based solely on speculation that it might peak at the right time. It doesn’t need the build up that Lady Bird has because it’s a known quantity with a sophomore effort from a director that they previously nominated.
1917 would be a Black Hawk Down. Director but no film. Does it elicit much passion a day after people watch it?
Irishman / Parasite / OUATIH / Marriage Story / Joker.
But I wouldn't be surprised with "Marriage Story" being left out for something else considering Irishman now seems to be Netflix's big favorite.
Jojo Rabbit gas some detractors, but many more passionate fans. Those who love it are passionate about it, which is exactly what the preferential ballot needs. And when could Oscar resist a Holocaust story well told, especially featuring children?
And 1917 also seems hard for them to resist—old-fashioned epic story told in exciting new, innovative ways. WWI is overdue for BP love—the only WWI BP nominee I can think of in recent years is War Horse, and we haven’t had a WWI BP winner since Lawrence of Arabia (and not a WWI European battlefront winner since All Quiet on the Western front. There’s been a lot of interest in the first world war in recent years because of its centennial (2014-2018), so it seems strong.
I don’t see Knives Out or Two Popes getting enough first place votes to get there, though Knives Out would be an excellent contender for them to have in terms of popular relevance and lightening the stuffy Oscar image.
Joker is likely in, despite none of the Academy voters taking my thoughts on it inti consideration, but I think if there were only five, Jojo or 1917 could have the edge. I don’t see Joker getting as many 2nd or 3rd choice consensus votes.
Little Women is likely in with the 7-9 spot scenario, for fans of the work plus the female protest vote.
And after SAGs, I’d add Bombshell to your list. Films about recent media/political history have been performing well.
Regardless if you like Joker or not (I have not seen it) it would be good for the film industry if it was nominated for best picture. General audience interest towards award films seemingly decreases every season. It would be good for the Academy Awards if more people (expecially young people) tune in to the discussion to root for Joker.
I think Jojo Rabbit would likely be the 5th.
I would guess that 1917 will come if fifth place this year.
But in a pre-2009 Best Picture line-up of just 5, I think the fifth slot would go to Little Women.
1917 hit at just the right moment. I'd say it's #5.
There's gotta be one nominee I hate with a passion, so Joker it is!
Joker. At least I hope it is.
And LOVE the posters on the wall in place of the family portraits!
It would be terrible if Parasite somehow doesn't get a BP nod. It's easily one of the very best films of the year. TBH like some others here I also miss when it was just 5 nominees for BP, even though over the years several really good films have gotten nods that likely wouldn't have, and a better diversity of films get represented. But having all these obvious also-rans in the mix dilutes the prestige of the award (what little prestige there is during some years, lol). I wonder how the change has worked our for the academy since '11?
With 5
1917
Marriage Story
Once Upon A Time...
The Irishman
Parasite
Excuse me, tombeet? Babe is not forgettable; it's one of the most inspired Best Picture nominees in Oscar history.
@adri, Star Wars was given a proper send-off—in 1983. It was given another in 2005, and will be given more when Disney inevitably revives the long-winded franchise in a few years. (In other words, there never really is a send-off when it comes to Star Wars; just a chapter break/hiatus.)
Back to five, please!
I honestly still think Jojo has a shot at winning BP, so I have to imagine it's #5. Also worried it'll take Gerwig's potential spot in the Director list, though Sam Mendes will also be a threat. When will a woman get more than one Director nod?
Starting to think I'll have a few favorites that are lucky to just get Screenplay nods.