The biggest question marks before the Emmy nominations
Tuesday, July 14, 2020 at 9:11AM 
We’re less than two weeks from the Emmy nominations announcement, and voting has officially closed. We have plenty of information now, including who’s on the ballot and how many nominees there will be in each category. Before we unveil our final predictions next week, let’s address some of the major unknowns and how they could play out across the board.
Just how well will frontrunners Succession and Schitt’s Creek do? Most prognosticators expect that these two shows could win the top prizes, with nominations at least are guaranteed. But, looking to last year, neither actually performed all that well in other categories...
It’s still hard to understand how the much-lauded HBO ensemble drama didn’t land a single acting nomination last year, and SAG shut the entire cast out again for season two earlier this year. Brian Cox won the Golden Globe and Jeremy Strong won the Critics Choice Award, but neither actor was even nominated for the other prize, suggesting that awards voters aren’t solidly behind any single performer in the show. Anywhere between two and five regular players are expected to be honored this time around, but the statistics are still disquieting. The Canadian comedy, on the other hand, finally broke through last year for its fifth season, though it earned only three nominations overall. With expanded supporting lineups, it’s probable that Dan Levy and Annie Murphy get in this time, but this situation, where a show is only invited to the party late in its run, is most reminiscent of two previous series – Friday Night Lights and The Americans. Both of those won their lead actors a farewell prize but never won the top award or saw anyone but their two main stars nominated. That said, the fields are more open this year than ever before, and so that trend isn’t as likely to repeat itself.
What shows won’t be nominated for Best Drama Series? In our first Emmy post of the season, we looked at the fact that there are eleven shows competing for what at that time was seven slots and has since been expanded to eight. Now that they’ve all finished airing, we have a better sense of which shows are the leaders. Succession, Ozark, The Crown, and Better Call Saul all feel safe. But after that, it gets murkier, and there’s no more clarity than when we first analyzed the category. Can Killing Eve and Pose repeat after just one previous nomination? What about The Handmaid’s Tale, Stranger Things, and Westworld, which all had very strong showings for their second seasons before they took a year off to sit out the previous Emmy cycle? Or Big Little Lies, which was one of the only shows to score top bids from both the Golden Globes and SAG for its second season? And then there’s This Is Us, which most believe will be snubbed after consistent showings three seasons in a row – the only series currently in the running to have achieved that distinction. Pose might have an added edge due to its content and recent release on Netflix, while Stranger Things and Big Little Lies may have faded too much from memory (The Handmaid’s Tale, which also aired last summer, recently released a trailer for season four, which could help), and Killing Eve doesn’t have the same buzz it once did. That leaves This Is Us or Westworld as likeliest to also be left off, and we’ll put the odds on the latter missing out right now.
What shows will be nominated for Best Comedy Series? Unlike the extremely overcrowded drama race, comedy is considerably more open. That was the case when there were going to be seven nominees, and now eight feels like extra – provided that the new slot goes to something worthwhile and not just a past nominee like Modern Family. We do expect The Good Place, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and Schitt’s Creek back after last year, and Curb Your Enthusiasm aired again, so it’s on the list too. Dead to Me is likely to make the cut, as is Ramy, both for their second seasons after barely registering with voters last year. The Kominsky Method seemed like a good bet even after it got snubbed last year, but no one seems to be talking about it. Alternatively, Better Things and Insecure are two great shows that have only landed lead actress nominations in the past and could make solid inclusions. One of our favorites, The Great, wasn’t on our radar when we initially made our predictions, but having seen it, it’s now a good dark horse. Run, on the other hand, felt like a good bet before it premiered. Following its recent cancellation, that is now very unlikely. While nostalgia could bring back past nominees like Black-ish or GLOW, it’s possible that another departing show that took last season off, Silicon Valley, manages to show up for its farewell season, if only because it’s been nominated every time it’s been eligible.
Who makes the cut in the most competitive category – Best Lead Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie? Well, no need to include the TV movie part – there are more than enough limited series contenders to fill this race two times over. Before the Emmy rules change, this category was going to have six nominees, but now it’s down to five. For the lead actor race, five feels like enough. But for the actresses, there are at least six women with a very strong shot, with one of our favorites, Shira Haas (Unorthodox), looking to unseat any one of them. Regina King (Watchmen) and Cate Blanchett (Mrs. America) are surely safe, but choosing from the two shows with double contenders – Unbelievable and Little Fires Everywhere – is going to be difficult since there can only be five nominees. Merritt Wever feels secure, while Kaitlyn Dever might get booted, and Kerry Washington could have a leg up on Reese Witherspoon. If Haas makes the cut, does that mean both Washington and Witherspoon miss out?
What shows will show up in a big way? Some series have previously over-performed with unforeseen strength, landing bids in a whole bunch of categories when only a few were predicted. Take Fleabag last year, which dominated after zero recognition for its first season, or Killing Eve, which outpaced its season one take with a much bigger haul for season two. We know that either Hollywood or Mrs. America could dominate the limited series supporting races, and that The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel stands to rack up more acting bids than ever before. But what will join them? Our best guess is Ramy, which could, like Fleabag, take enthusiasm for its star and parlay that into supporting bids for two of our favorite standouts, Hiam Abbass and May Calamawy, and maybe even a couple supporting actors, including Mahershala Ali. Ozark could also get a lot of its cast nominated, as could Succession, if our doubts above don’t turn into reality. The other show with the potential to score across the board is new entry The Morning Show, with a large cast full of impressive turns that could be roundly endorsed by voters. And, though we don’t think it will happen, veteran variety series Saturday Night Live might benefit from expanded supporting fields with more representatives from its cast cited.
What shows are we completely underestimating? This question is probably easiest since we have a few distinct possibilities. The Outsider was well-received and boasts an awards-friendly cast including past Emmy winner Ben Mendelsohn and recent Oscar nominee Cynthia Erivo. The Mandalorian was the first big Disney Plus show, and it had a huge fanbase talking about it for weeks. If Apple TV Plus gets invited to the party, why shouldn’t a juggernaut like Disney for its new streaming service? We weren’t too sure about Space Force back when we initially assessed the comedy races since it hadn’t premiered yet, and we’re still pretty neutral about it. That doesn’t mean it won’t get nominated, since Steve Carell is everywhere these days and voters will likely want to get their licks in with any fare that parodies our current government. We haven’t heard about Euphoria or Mindhunter in a while, but they were very well-regarded when they aired. Maybe the timing of season two of The Politician will bolster its chances, and will anyone remember Living with Yourself? Could voters laud Hunters despite its extreme violence? And, because this is The Film Experience and we have to defer to Nathaniel sometimes, we should note that Normal People, which he loved, might just manage to make the cut in a few crowded categories.
Who or what is going to get snubbed? Last year, the biggest omissions were Golden Globe winners Richard Madden (Bodyguard) and comedy series The Kominsky Method. Homecoming was also nowhere to be found, and Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) didn’t get nominated once again. It’s hardest to predict the surprises that will get left off, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to anticipate them! Presuming that Hollywood or Little Fires Everywhere don’t deliver high nomination totals isn’t all that crazy and wouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Betting on zero nominations despite three submissions for the abovementioned Reese Witherspoon is definitely bolder. An interesting situation we could foresee is that, after three consecutive bids, This Is Us costars Sterling K. Brown and Milo Ventimiglia are left off in favor of Justin Hartley, who’s competing for the first time in the lead race.
What questions do you have ahead of nominations, and what are your answers to ours?
Reader Comments (20)
After watching it, and seeing it get nominated again at the TCA awards, I hope that The Good Fight will get nominated, even though it hasn't registered with voters at all these past few years. Christine Baranski, Audra McDonald, Cush Jumbo, and Delroy Lindo are all doing great work, and the writers seem to be some of the only ones that are capable of capturing this moment in history.
Otherwise, I think it's interesting to consider what will be dropped this year? It always happens with some shows - I'm predicting Handmaid's Tale and Stranger Things to show up mostly in acting in technical noms, rather than in series.
Kathleen Turner for These Old Bones!
Thank you for taking me through this labyrinth of nominations.
Joe G - co-sign everything you said about "The Good Fight". It's a travesty that this show gets so little attention from the Emmys. Every season gives me insight and helps me get through this brutal presidency. The writing team deserve the kind of credit given to "Mad Men" and "Breaking Bad" (Lots of critical praise but not enough people see it on CBS streaming platform)
The only other shows that I'm really hoping for are "Schitt's Creek" and "Succession". I want Catherine O'Hara to win something - finally- for the best work of her amazing career.
Catherine O'Hara for the win. I hope the rest of the cast of Schitt's Creek is at least nominated. Ditto for the cast of Pose.
Catherine O'Hara is surely a sentimental favorite and could win as a lifetime achievement award (also, she deserves it for the work in SC). However, more and more awards voters are wanting to celebrate people at the height, or even beginning of their careers. Dan Levy is considered the powerhouse behind this show. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't take one home, either as supporting actor, or writer/co-writer of one of the episodes.
Shitt's Creek has built and built, to an extent where it isn't unreasonable to consider it a threat, but it will all depend on how big the internet hype bubble is, and if that bubble made into a Venn Diagram with Emmy Voters has enough overlap.
I too want to see The Good Fight recognized! I don’t think enough voters will have seen it though on CBS All Access, despite 3 years in a row being nominated in Drama Series at TCA and the Critic’s Choice Awards. I will settle for even just a Writing nom!
On the comedy side, I want Schitt’s Creek to dominate like Fleabag did last year. I will be annoyed if voters just default to more wins for Maisel. Would love to see Insecure finally breakthrough in a major way with multiple noms, as well as freshman series The Great.
Avenue 5 is woefully underrated due to the creators coming off Veep and it's pedestal/success. It also shits all over whatever the hell Space Force is meant to be. I'd love Suzy Nakamura in Supporting Actress, but on buzz for the show and the industry in general, it'll be a small chance at a Josh Gad nomination in Supporting Actor or nothing. Although right this second after typing that I realise that 8 time Emmy acting nominee, in a span of approximately 16 years, Hugh Laurie could get in for the notoriously and consistently considered weak category of Lead Actor in a Comedy Series.
Of the bubble shows you mentioned, those that deserve nominations are Pose, The Good Fight, Glow, and The Great. I had to drop Killing Eve this year; it should have ended in Season 1 or 2. I still watch The Handmaid's Tale, but it has deteriorated in quality quite a bit, too. Who wasn't disappointed with Big Little Lies, Season 2? And a shut-out of Hollywood would greatly please me (I think you are underestimating The Plot Against America, even though they don't like David Simon... this is more Emmy-friendly than his other series).
Neither Washington nor Witherspoon deserve nominations for Little Fires everywhere, but if one gets a nomination, it should be Witherspoon. Yes, she has played that role repeatedly, but she does it well. Washington was not good in that series. It seems Witherspoon consistently gets overlooked because she is so good at playing unsympathetic women.
Just need SCHITT'S CREEK and POSE to do well.
I hope Schitt's Creek overperforms even beyond Dan Levy and Annie Murphy. Another supporting nomination like Noah Reid or Chris Elliot or Emily Hampshire and guest for Dustin would be awesome.
I would love Reese Witherspoon to get in for BIG LITTLE LIES. That monologue she performs on the stage in front of the school sticks with me to this day. I felt she was under praised in the first season next to Kidman's amazing work, but she was on the same level as her. I think she upped her game in Season 2 and continued to soar.
I'm already preparing for another Seehorn snub. :(
THE GREAT is operating on a much higher level than almost anything that's being talked about for Best Comedy, and similarly what Elle Fanning and Nicholas Hoult are doing is heads and tails more difficult and accomplished than many in the conversation. I'm hoping it's a surprise crasher on Emmy morning.
schitt’s creek had four nominations last year [comedy series, actor, actress and costumes]
I'm crossing my fingers that The Great gets noticed. Nicolas Hoult's a standout in this show.
I agree with some of the people here. The Good Fight really deserves to be recognized. It is easily one of the best drama series in years.
If there's one supporting performance that I hope gets a nod, it would be Judith Light's in Manhunt: Deadly Games.
Homeland's final season was very very good, as was Mandy Patinkin and Claire Danes.
I really hope Josh O'Connor, Janet McTeer and Tom Pelphrey can get nominated as well.
Jim Carrey is outstanding in Kidding.
Same with Paul Rudd in Living With Yourself.
I hope Linda Cardellini can get nominated along with Applegate.
Love Louie Anderson on Baskets.
The Plot Against America was excellent
Margo Martindale won twice for The Americans (I think she was nominated almost every year). Allison Wright was also nominated. Not just Rhys and Russell.
I wear a "Schitt's Creek" face mask to work every day in Jacksonville, FL, and have to constantly tell folks about the show. Only two out of hundreds of clients have seen it. That scares me as it really deserves some major love for the brilliant final season.
The other two shows I am championing are Nathaniel's beloved "Normal People." Paul Mescal gave THE male performance of the year. And "Sex Education," a terrific little show that is barely making a lot of the Emmy lists, despite being a big hit for Netflix.