Emmy Watch: What new shows will join the Best Drama Series lineup?
Thursday, May 20, 2021 at 10:30AM Emmy nominations are closer than you think! Our team is breaking down the top contenders in all the major races and highlighting some of our favorites over the next few weeks. We’ll begin with Best Drama Series.
At this point last year, production shutdowns weren’t really going to affect the Emmy Awards since so many of the series had already aired their seasons in the back half of 2019 or early 2020. This time around, things are very different, as many shows that would have theoretically been top contenders haven’t yet returned. Here’s the most jarring statistic: last year there were eleven shows that had been nominated the previous time they were eligible (seven made the cut again). This year, there are only three. Let’s break down the few returning shows that might be back and the wide array of possibilities that could fill the remaining slots…
RETURNING FAVOURITES
It’s a good bet that those three shows nominated last year will earn repeat bids. The Crown is a shoo-in, and it’s the likely winner even without any other nominees confirmed to be in the running. Though the regal drama, now in its fourth season, has won both the top Golden Globe and SAG prizes twice, it has yet to win this award. The Mandalorian is still hot, and season two should find a place in this category. The Handmaid’s Tale may not be earning reviews as strong for season four as its first two outings, but it made the cut last year for season three and is still popular and well-regarded. There are two other series that missed out last year for the first time but could easily return. Pose is wrapping its run after three seasons and is still very powerful, while This Is Us has one more to go but is a beloved series that, at least in my opinion, is as good as it ever was now that it’s in season five. Neither would be likely to make the cut if some of the shows that aren’t yet back – Better Call Saul, Killing Eve, Ozark, Stranger Things, or Succession – were in competition, but that just isn’t the case this time.
Looking at this grid of the last four years, that’s it for previous nominees. Bodyguard and Westworld haven’t yet announced premiere dates for their next iterations, and Dexter, which is returning after eight years off the air, is coming back this fall, making it a possibility for the 2022 Emmys. So what else could be here? The best place to start is always other awards shows that hand out year-end prizes. The only new series to score top notices at both the Globes and SAG was Lovecraft Country, though it didn’t earn any other bids from either group. Its Critics Choice haul, with nominations in every acting category, was more impressive, and the Emmy embrace of genre series like The Mandalorian and Stranger Things suggests that voters are okay with stylized period horror. Perry Mason is another possibility that didn’t perform as well as expected with those midseason precursors. Expect Bridgerton, a SAG ensemble nominee, to factor in to this race, while Ratched, which scored three Golden Globe bids, is a bit more of a wild card given that not everyone loves Ryan Murphy (I personally thought the show was excellent and can’t wait for season two).
RETURNING SHOWS THAT HAVE YET TO BE NOMINATED IN "DRAMA SERIES"
It took series like Killing Eve and Ozark until season two to first be nominated in this category. That might provide hope for The Boys, an Amazon hit that has only garnered more positive press for its second season. Another less likely possibility is For All Mankind, which earned even better reviews for its second outing than its first. Snowfall, now in its fourth season and already renewed for its fifth, could break through this year. And then there’s In Treatment, returning after more than a decade off the air. It earned six acting nominations but no top category bid back in the day and is probably more likely to repeat that feat for Emmy-winning star Uzo Aduba and other cast members than to show up here.
THE FRESHMAN CLASS
Aside from arguably Lovecraft Country, Perry Mason, and Ratched, none of this year's diverse crop of freshman series feel like surefire inclusions. The high profile of The Falcon and the Winter Soldier is sure to net it some votes, but I’m wondering whether more attention will be centered on another Marvel Cinematic Universe series, WandaVision, which is competing as a limited series. On top of that, Loki will be airing as voting is taking place, though it won’t be eligible until next year. The latter's prominence could either hinder the chances of both of the earlier shows or remind audiences how much they love their Marvel superheroes. Genre fans within the Television Academy might also choose to honor Netflix's Shadow and Bone, HBOMax's The Nevers, or HBO's Raised by Wolves (though I suspect those three will perform much better in the technical races.)
There are a few other freshman shows that might have enough supporters to rally for a place, but it’s hard to know. P-Valley has garnered great reviews on Starz. We Are Who We Are was a distinctly stylized and purposely slow-paced limited series that is inexplicably competing in this category since there are no plans for it to return. Industry was another effort that seemed like it might capture the zeitgeist of a young workforce bound for misery, but I’ve heard almost nothing about it since HBO Max dropped the entire season early midway through its scheduled weekly run on HBO. Lastly, there’s Big Sky, a midseason ABC drama that earned a renewal and, despite not being good at all, has enlisted formidable actors like Ted Levine and Michelle Forbes to anchor the back half of its recently-wrapped first season. It would be a peculiar choice for a nomination but one that would reflect network television ratings. That said, network ratings are hardly a factor for this category anymore as they haven't invited more than one broadcast network show to the party at a time in almost a decade.
At this point last year, I correctly guessed 6/8 of the eventual nominees, missing The Handmaid’s Tale and The Mandalorian, which are ironically two of the three eligible shows this year, for This Is Us and Westworld. Based on unconfirmed category placements, where we are now, and a presumed general lack of enthusiasm for Ryan Murphy projects , here’s my predicted list for this race:
PREDICTIONS
- Bridgerton
- The Crown
- The Falcon and the Winter Soldier
- The Handmaid’s Tale
- Lovecraft Country
- The Mandalorian
- Perry Mason
- This Is Us
What shows do you think will make the cut, and what are we underestimating in this wide-open year?
Reader Comments (22)
I thought BIG SKY was wonderful... What happened to Ryan Phillippe's character in the 1st episode kinda stunned me.
I wonder if WandaVision will be submitted as limited series. I don't think there are any plans for a second season. Whatever category it goes in, Olsen and Hahn are sure to be noticed.
Sorry, I missed the line about limited series.
I loved WV, but it doesn't have a chance against Mare of Easttown.
Watching Perry Mason now and I think it's kind of dreadful. Only Rhys is awards-worthy.
I hope this means TFE will start covering some of the great new tv shows. Mare of Easttown, Girls 5eva, The Underground Railroad, Hacks are all worthy of attention.
Convincing analysis. My only caveat is that I suspect Apple TV+ will have a larger presence at the Emmys this year. If The Mosquito Coast continues to gain traction, the freshman series may surprise.
I agree that Lovecraft Country seems like the likeliest of the new shows to break through. I found it incredibly uneven, but the best episodes were bold, memorable television.
I'm glad to see you mention This Is Us, which as you say has had a pretty great fifth season, although I wonder if the various production delays during the pandemic will hurt it? It's sort of felt like we get two episodes then it takes another month off, and it's hard to keep up momentum that way...
Loved We Are Who We Are - such a unique and interesting vision - but, yeah, what's it doing in this category?!
abe -- I think these predcictions are pretty good but I cant see FALCON & THE SNOWMAN placing. The buzz on that seemed very subdued and a lot of people jsut didnt like it at all. It is buoyed by the popularity of Marvel but they can vote on that for WandaVision and get their fill.
ben -- totally agree on Lovecraft. Remarkable moments pretty consistently but also wildly uneven.
jules -- we clearly need a bigger team :)
@James - I did love the first two episodes of The Mosquito Coast but thought that it could increasingly less interesting. Maybe Justin Theroux has a shot, especially since he never got in for his formidable work on The Leftovers, but I would be genuinely surprised to see it make the cut here.
Lightly OT: Variety's predictions for Comedy series have Superstore and Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist marked down. And...I'm going to go out on a limb and say that one or both of them might miss and, at least, The Boys surprises as a Comedy series nominee (no one really views The Boys as a drama, it's a comedy of jerks), as does, possibly...Helluva Boss, if Vivzie submits it, this year, for Comedy, not Animated. Yes, even though Helluva has only 5 eligible episodes out, three of those (episodes 2, 3, and 5) are just masterfully made, and the underdog "Completely Off Network" narrative is potentially great for awards buzz. And before you say, "But Animated...", Family Guy made it for Season SEVEN. So, yeah. If she's bold enough to go there, I do think Helluva Boss could make it. (At least keep them in mind as possibles for the Comedy article.)
I'm not a big fan of Bridgeton joining, but it's easy to see Netflix giving it a big push.
I'm not sold on Perry Mason and the Falcon and the Winter Soldier making it in. Clearly Disney+ has a lot of campaign muscle given their shocking inclusion last year, but I don't think Falcon was a big enough hit/moment to really make it in. Perry Mason was pretty overlooked by the winter awards shows, something surprising for an HBO show. It could still make it in, but HBO has a lot of things to push.
I actually think Pose will make it back in. It seems to be having a well-received season, Billy Porter seems to really be making himself a top-tier contender, and I think it's one of the most relevant shows of this moment given the increased focused on trans lives, Black lives, and Black trans lives. FX also has nothing else to push.
So is "Ratched" confirmed for a second season? It's absurd, but I loved it.
I've seen every episode of every series that Abe is predicting—except one, and I haven't seen a single episode of that one. Do I really need to be watching The Mandalorian?
I really have no idea anymore because there are just too many series on too many different platforms for any working person to keep up with.
Because we are so swamped, I think mainstream choices and returning series have an advantage.
FWIW , I truly enjoyed "The Crown', "The Mandalorian", "The Flight Attendant" and "Mare of Easttown" and "His Dark Materials".
And like everyone else, I can't praise Kate Winslet enough for her performance as Mare. She has to be considered a front runner for an Emmy. (Along with Jean Smart- of course)
Mare of Easttown: Winslet and Smart feel like shoe-ins, and the way things are going, Julianne Nicholson could be saving her best scenes for the last 2 episodes.
I am in Winslet's camp. Mare is a career highpoint. However, she will formidable competition from Anya Taylor-Joy for The Queen's Gambit.
GO MARVEL!!!!!
Yay - I always look forward to your coverage of the Emmy race.
It definitely feels like the safe ones are:
Bridgerton
The Crown
The Handmaid's Tale
Lovecraft Country
The Mandalorian
I would love it for This Is Us to get nominated again.
In my opinion, Pose feels like it might get nominated, even though the final season isn't the same quality as their other two seasons.
Perry Mason wasn't that great either, but there's that many shows to nominate this season.
I haven't watched The Falcon and the Winter Soldier yet.
The Emmys need to open up the number of nomination slots in limited series.
Funny years ago they were ridding of the supporting acting nominees and now limited series is where it’s at.
Not that excited about the drama races. Crown can sweep.
Pose 3rd season quality dipped significantly. The plot is becoming laughable and an excuse to collate pop culture moments and lay on a soundtrack.
Mare is great TV. At first I was getting Sharp Objects vibes and was wishing Amy Adams was cast instead, then both Mare's character and the plot starting layering, and Winslet really started chewing at the scenes and producing career-best work
Lovecraft Country pls!
Lightly OT: The Volvagia Story.
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