SAG "Surprise" Predictions
Monday, January 10, 2022 at 9:02AM by Nathaniel R
Will the size and stardom of DON'T LOOK UP make it a SAG favourite?
Because this season has had so little drama, let's have a little fun with punditry instead of being concerned with being correct. Let's predict one surprise in ALL of the Screen Actors Guild movie categories. This was hard to do as the natural instinct is to be "as correct / as prescient" as possible and there obviously won't be a surprise in EVERY category. That just doesn't happen.
But it was the challenge we set ourselves, so here we go...
OUTSTANDING ACTRESS
- Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
- Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
- the surprise: Jennifer Hudson, Respect
- Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
- Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Chastain? In all likelihood we'll see Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, and not Hudson, named and we'll be happy about that (as Jess is utterly fabulous in that movie and underrewarded in general). But for the sake of argument and knowing that SAG often throws curveballs and that Jennifer Hudson has been sort of hanging around the edges of the conversation all year and has as traditionally baity an awards role as Kidman, Spencer, or Chastain. Let's go ahead and predict that surprise switcheroo. The other name besides Hudson that we were tempted to predict as the "surprise" because it would be extremely SAG-like and everyone would say "I guess it makes sense" in retrospect: Emilia Jones in CODA.
The other contenders: Optend not to predict Jodie Comer because SAG hasn't even been that interested in her in her genius Emmy-winning performance in Killing Eve. Opted not to predict Alana Haim and Rachel Zegler due to SAG's overall unfamiliarity with them. Opted not to predict Penelope Cruz because, worthy SAG inclusions like Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone aside, SAG often ignores great subtitled performances and Parallel Mothers was a late in the year arrival and could have used another full month to rev up (at least in terms of SAG since they vote a full month earlier than the Academy does).
OUTSTANDING ACTOR
- Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
- the surprise: Jude Hill, Belfast
- Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
- Will Smith, King Richard
- Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
WTF... Garfield!!! SAG is more generous with child actors than Oscar and we wanted to predict Jude Hill just for fun though we think it's a terrible choice for a 'best of the year' citation. He's cute but... it's an acting award! In all likelihood, though, this is the category that feels least likely to surprise. It was agony to try to decide who Hill (or some other surprise) would boot from the list: SAG traditional really loves Dinklage and Denzel; Smith is obviously not being left behind; Cumberbatch had a spectacular year. In the end we thought Garfield getting the boot would cause the most online chaos so, for the sake of having fun with these predictions, out he goes!
Other possibilities: If for some reason the nominating committee didn't get to their screeners of either Cyrano or Macbeth, we can see Leonardo DiCaprio showing up for Don't Look Up to replace Dinklage or Denzel. Everyone else feels far-fetched (for some reason) even if they shouldn't be like Nicolas Cage in Pig, Clifton Collins Jr in Jockey, or Joaquin Phoenix in C'mon C'mon.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
- Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
- Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
- the surprise: Marlee Matlin, CODA
- Ruth Negga, Passing
No Balfe? We know that doesn't make sense at all given the Hill prediction but sometimes things don't make sense in awardage! Remember when Amanda Seyfried didn't show up for Mank just last season at SAG despite feeling lockish all year for an Oscar nod? We think SAG is going to go for CODA in a big way, so...
Other strong possibilities: Listen it's a bloodbath in supporting and obviously we might see Ann Dowd in Mass, Rita Moreno in West Side Story, and/or Caitríona Balfe in Belfast replacing any of the ladies above! Hell Rebecca Ferguson could be a surprise for Dune if they really fall for that movie (though we think it's best bet are the two group categories: Stunts and Cast.)
A surprise we'd absolutely cheer: Martha Plimpton in Mass or Kathryn Hunter in Tragedy of Macbeth
A shock that would maybe not read as shocking in retrospect: Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley since she steals the movie, Dakota Johnson in The Lost Daughter from Olivia Colman coattails and her own celebrity, Meryl Streep in Don't Look Up because awards bodies always feel duty-bound to honor her.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR
- the surprise: Jon Bernthal, King Richard
- Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
- Troy Kotsur, CODA
- Jared Leto, House of Gucci
- Kodi Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog
Why Bernthal over Dornan? Just because we promised a "surprise" prediction in each category and Bernthal has worked with everyone and we think they'll embrace King Richard. Though we feel the same way about Belfast so perhaps excluding Dornan is dumb.
Would not be surprising at all though it would be super annoying: Someone from Don't Look Up -- either Mark Rylance or Jonah Hill. To be clear its not that we hate the movie but it's just not a "Most Outstanding" or "Best" situation.
Surprises we'd love to see happen Mike Faist in West Side Story or Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza
A shock that would maybe not read a shock in retrospect: Jesse Plemons in Power of the Dog, since he is widely admired and would make such a fun package deal with the rest of the cast including his fiancée Kirsten Dunst.
STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
- Dune
- The Last Duel
- No Time To Die
- Spider-Man No Way Home
- the surprise West Side Story
No Shang-Chi? WTF??? Last's year's bizarre Trial of the Chicago 7 nomination in this category reminds us that any film with strong Best Picture momentum might show up. Though this category is young it tends to be 3 action blockbusters plus 2 dramas with an action scene or three in them. Since we think Dune and No Way Home are locks here given their hit status in a year without "hits" in the normal abundant sense, that doesn't leave a lot of room for the other action blockbusters and we've opted to predict Spider-Man for its recency rather than Shang-Chi. We're predicting West Side Story just for the hell of it. Most of intense physicality is dance rather than stunt related but maybe the warm-up rumble in the opening or the "rumble" climax will impress them. Lord knows it's way more impressive as stunts/action than anything in Chicago 7.
Other distinct possibilities: Shang-Chi obviously (and so worthy!), but also Cyrano and Tragedy of Macbeth if they decide to go for the sword-fighting sequences.
What would be a Trial of Chicago 7 level WHAT? inclusion: Maybe Licorice Pizza for its backwards driving and that motorcycle scene?
OUTSTANDING CAST OF A MOTION PICTURE
- Belfast
- CODA
- ____the surprise? Dune
- Don't Look Up
- Mass
WHAT COUNTS A SURPRISE?
Maybe Dune wouldn't be a surprise but this is always difficult to predict. We know that very large star-filled casts are like a drug to them regardless of the collective quality of the performances or any actual ensemble acting therein (which boosts about 10 movies here). WE know that Best Picture heat really matters, too, even if the casts are small (which boosts another 5 or so movies not in the first group). Though they don't normally warm to sci-fi, maybe Dune is the movie this year that most actors wish they were actually in?
Here are SIX other films that feel like true threats as well.
alternates
- Being the Ricardos - was tempted to predict this on account of showbiz resonance
- The Harder They Fall - was tempted to predict this on account of how starry the cast is
- King Richard - was tempted to predict this on best picture heat
- Licorice Pizza - was tempted to predict this on account of all the cameos
- Power of the Dog - was tempted to predict this on best picture heat
- West Side Story - was tempted to predict this on best picture heat and how large the cast is if not traditionally "starry" for this category since there are so many newbies in it
Wishful thinking? We hope that quality of group interaction in terms of cohesiveness and collective interdependent brilliance will matter. That's why we're predicting Mass though we still worry that's wishful thinking.
Reader Comments (19)
Because the nominations are not the will of the entirety of SAG but instead a random percentage of the whole, there is little to use as a guide. I do think the category of Best Actress is ripe for surprise as it is littered with performances that have fervent supporters and verbal opposition to the quality of the film overall.
I’ll put my checkered reputation as a prognosticator on the power of recent viewings and name Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of Macbeth as a surprise nominee on Wednesday.
I could definitely see Jennifer Hudson as a nominee, but if she replaces anyone here, I think it would be Colman.
I can totally see a Jennifer Lawrence in place of a Lady Gaga surprise. Its a Netflix film and I thought she was pretty strong in Don't Look Up (maybe my favorite performance of hers this side of Winter's Bone?)
I would be more surprised by an Outstanding Cast nomination for Mass than one for Dune. The buzz around Mass seems very quiet to me.
Sure, I’ll play for SAG Surprise:
Supporting Actor: Jeffrey Wright in “The French Dispatch” (respected and well-liked veteran actor).
Supporting Actress: Rebecca Ferguson in “Dune” ( got to appreciate her holding that narrative together and making it look easy).
Best Actress: Tessa Thompson in “Passing” (this shouldn’t be a surprise, since this is one of the best performances of the year).
Best Actor: Keanu Reeves in “Matrix Resurrections” (because we love him more than any of the other actors and this iconic role has action, thought, and true love).
Best Ensemble : “In The Heights”. (Latinx cast may not be truly representative, but at least it’s not a cast of half white guys, and it’s about shared community not an assumed inherent violence).
Best Stunt Ensemble: “Matrix Resurrections” (of course!).
Jennifer Hudson would not surprise given her campaign. Nicolas Cage may surprise if enough voters saw the Hollywood Reporter video. Nothing in Supporting Actress would surprise me. How about a surprise nom for Woody Norman?
Oh, the Hudson mention. Now I can't unsee it! Hate you
Predicting Ricardos everywhere
Jodie Comer will have a Bafta moment later in the race
I am still amazed Jared Leto is still in the conversation ... I mean how?????
No guts, no glory:
Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Macbeth (Force of nature. actors love people doing Shakespeare. Kind of a lazy choice. Sometimes voters are lazy.)
Best Actor
Udo Keir, Swan Song (Actors love unlikely star turns.)
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (Well liked personally; hasn't gotten his due, really.)
Best Supporting Actress
Martha Plimpton, Mass (Well liked personally. Overdue for praise and people know it.)
My bets for surprises:
Ensemble: Being the Ricardos
Actress: Cruz
Actor: Phoenix
Supp Actress: Buckley
Supp Actor: Faist
PS: I guess DeBose really did become Anita, judging by your spelling of her name! ;)
Surprise best actress: Amy Adams for Woman in the window (kidding). Please, no McDormand this year, please please please!
Hmm
Actress: Reinsve
Actor: Isaac (The Card Counter)
Supporting Actress: Blanchett (Don‘t Look Up)
Supporting Actor: Jenkins (Nightmare Alley)
Cast: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Stunts: Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Max chaos:
Actress: Comer (Last Duel)
Actor: Chalamet (Dune)
S. Actress: Taylor-Joy (Last Night in Soho)
S. Actor: Affleck (Tender Bar)
Being The Ricardos is just the right amount of Not Good Enough for the Oscars that I could very easily see it making a lot of noise in nominations. Hope that's wrong but they do so love their mediocre bio-pic-y pics.
Hudson cannot get in because Sasha Stone would never stop mentioning it.
Peter - -AGH. now that you mention Affleck in Tender Bar i'm like ugh i shoulda guessed that.
Would J.K. Simmons be considered a surprise nominee? I know he got the BFCA nomination, but I’m pretty sure that’s all, and his buzz has still been very quiet. If he would be considered a surprise, he’s my pick in the Supporting Actor category. Seems like the kind of thing SAG would go for, e.g. a beloved actor in an entertaining role he could frankly do in his sleep but it’s in a buzzy movie the voters will all be watching so he’s automatically a threat.
Although I’d really like to say Colman Domingo is my surprise pick. I’m just…not going to get my hopes up.
And I’ll go for Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter as a surprise Supporting Actress nominee. Unfortunately I just have this sinking feeling that any surprise in this category might come at the expense of Ruth Negga, which would be a shame because she should honestly be competing for the win, yet it feels like she’s fighting just to stay in the lineup.
I will also make an incredibly foolish no guts, no glory prediction and say Belfast somehow does not get nominated for Outstanding Cast.
I have to say that, the only performer I am extremely rooting for, is for Cruz, to win SAG and BAFTA and then Oscar. It is really an amazing performance, her best...
The Humans for Ensemble Cast
WHY IS NO ONE TALKING MORE ABOUT 'THE HUMANS'???