Oscar Volley: Split predictions in Adapted and Original Screenplay!
Friday, March 18, 2022 at 1:00PM Team Experience is discussing the various Oscar categories. Here's Matt St. Clair, Christopher James, Lynn Lee and Josh Bierman discussing the screenplays.
MATT ST. CLAIR: Hello all. So, in Best Adapted Screenplay, I think that it remains Jane Campion's to lose but Maggie Gyllenhaal could be The Lost Daughter's sole win here instead, given the clear passion it has. What do you guys think?
CHRISTOPHER JAMES: Thanks for kicking us off, Matt! As in Best Picture, The Power of the Dog is the one to beat. I still think it will ultimately be the big winner of the night, but it is vulnerable...
That said, I don't think The Lost Daughter is its biggest competition. Of the five nominees, it is the only one that is not a Best Picture nominee. While non-Best Picture nominees have surprised in the past here, I'm not convinced The Lost Daughter will be able to do it. Instead, The Power of the Dog should watch out for Drive My Car and CODA.
The four nominations for Drive My Car show an incredible amount of support for the film. Getting this much traction (and over $2 million at the domestic box office) while being a 3 hour Japanese language film centered around a performance of Uncle Vanya is no easy feat. There's a tremendous amount of love for the film, and this could be the place to show it. Some have suggested that after its big win at SAG, CODA could be our Oscar dark horse. In order for me to be convinced that it could take Best Picture, it would have to win here. Right now, I think all the CODA love will only propel Troy Kotsur to the win in Supporting Actor.
Lynn, which movie do you think is the biggest competition in Adapted Screenplay for The Power of the Dog?
LYNN LEE: The Power of the Dog is the frontrunner but it's a much tighter race than it may seem at first glance. I agree that Drive My Car is the dark horse, especially with the whole Academy body voting - not just the screenwriters - and the growing strength of the international (i.e., non-U.S. person) contingent. It definitely overperformed in the nominations and while I don't think it will win Picture or Director, it could steal a victory here if voters want to reward it with more than just international feature.
I have a hard time seeing CODA winning, but that might just be my own bias because I find its writing to be its weakest aspect. On the other hand, there's a fair argument to be made that The Power of the Dog, Drive My Car, and The Lost Daughter could split the, let's call it the artsy-cerebral vote, giving the advantage to what is clearly the populist choice. Oh dear, that makes me sound like a snob. To be clear, I'm not saying artsy or cerebral is always superior to populist! Though in this case, it is.
Josh, where do you land in this race? And are we all underestimating Dune?
JOSH BIERMAN: I'm a big Dune cheerleader. If I was an Academy voter it would be #1 on my Best Picture ballot. I think it will do very well in the tech categories and walk away with the most prizes of the night. But Best Adapted Screenplay will not be one of them. Shocking considering what a massive undertaking the project was and even more shocking because it was pulled off so successfully. I didn't have familiarity with the original film version or the book, but I thought they did a remarkable job of taking something overwhelming and making it digestable. However, I think most voters will still look at it as an enormous technical feat and will seek to reward another contender knowing Dune will do well in other categories. On the flip side maybe this is where voters can honor Villeneuve who was egregiously snubbed. (That would help my theory of Dune achieving success akin to The Godfather at this year's Oscars and in two years, but that goes beyond this category and I won't bore you.)
I think voters really want to make sure Campion will walk away with at least one prize resulting in her likely winning here and in Director. Is anyone more optimistic about Dune's chances here? Or should they just announce Campion's win on The Academy's Twitter already?
MATT: Campion probably wins here. And if she does then The Power of the Dog will definitely claim Best Picture because the Screenplay Oscars are always either a consolation prize for not winning Best Picture or an indication of a Best Picture win. Especially in the era of the expanded Best Picture lineup. But if Campion doesn't win here, then maybe BAFTA winner CODA prevails.
I'm also curious about Original Screenplay. It's going to come down to either Belfast or Licorice Pizza. On one hand, Paul Thomas Anderson has a 0-11 Oscar record. On the other, Kenneth Branagh is in a film with broader support and has a 0-8 record. Yet, if Branagh couldn't win at BAFTA of all places, does PTA take home a long elusive trophy? Or can we go crazy and toy with an upset victory for the writers of The Worst Person in the World?
LYNN LEE: If I were the betting type, I would put a little bit of money on Worst Person in the World. After all, isn't that the kind of upset most likely to happen in original screenplay? Or maybe I'm just indulging in wishful thinking because I want that film to win. The script is such a delightful surprise - I started out thinking I knew more or less where it was going, but then it swerves, and ends up plumbing emotional depths that hit me hard. And how great would it be to have a double victory by non-English language films in the screenplay categories -- has that happened before?
I could see Licorice Pizza being the "cool" film that wins, which I have mixed feelings about. I enjoyed the film and didn't mind its discursiveness, but the reason it worked as well as it did was the acting and production design, not the writing. In particular, I give Alana Haim about 95% of the credit for making a character who's fairly unbelievable on paper as compelling as she is on screen. I also really could have done without the cringey Japanese restaurant owner played by John Michael Higgins, which, however you feel we were supposed to take him, embodies the downside of the screenplay's bagginess. Take him out and what do you lose? Nothing. So why is he still in there?
MATT ST. CLAIR: Yeah. I'll be honest, as a PTA fan, I don't think Licorice Pizza is one of his strongest screenplays. While it might be his most accessible movie, it was quite meandering with Alana Haim's performance indeed being its saving grace. Of course, the one thing giving me pause about The Worst Person in the World pulling off a surprise victory is that it's the only film in this category that isn't up for Best Picture. But the writers got in over Aaron Sorkin for Being the Ricardos who they could've easily name-checked. So, the movie clearly has fans.
CHRISTOPHER JAMES: I keep inching closer and closer to predicting The Worst Person in the World. To answer your question, Lynn, there has never been a year where international features won both writing categories. In fact, no international feature has won Adapted Screenplay, while six have won Original Screenplay. There is a chance The Worst Person in the World follows the trajectory of Talk to Her, winning Screenplay without a Best Picture nomination. However, that movie was only up against one Best Picture nominee (Gangs of New York).
Licorice Pizza is a very vulnerable frontrunner in this category and it grows more vulnerable by the day. As a Paul Thomas Anderson fan, I enjoyed Licorice Pizza. Yet, it was definitely one of his most uneven entries, with moments that ranged from glorious (Harriet Samson Harris) to unwatchable (the John Michael Higgins moments you mentioned). If it were to win, it would likely be more for Paul Thomas Anderson's legacy than for the film itself. The fact that it didn't show up in acting or below the line categories makes me think its support is concentrated to PTA superfans.
In fact, I think the race has the potential for other upsets. Belfast's win at the Critics Choice feels more like prognosticating rather than a vote of actual support. Still, there are clearly fans for the film and this could be the place where it gets its consolation win.
Don't Look Up and King Richard also have their fervent camps. I feel pretty confident that King Richard won't win here, as fans of the movie are rallying around Will Smith for the movie's big win (and possibly Film Editing and Aunjanue Ellis as a dark horse). Don't Look Up, on the other hand, doesn't have another natural place to win and the people who love it really love it. Could the field split enough that this surprises? I hope not (and am not predicting it). All of this is to say, we have a real race on our hands.
MATT ST. CLAIR: If anything beats Licorice Pizza, it's either Belfast as the spoiler or The Worst Person in the World as the hopeful dark horse. So, what do we all have as our final predictions? For me, I'm going to settle on Belfast in Original with Licorice Pizza as the potential upset winner and The Power of the Dog for Adapted but with CODA as the spoiler.
CHRISTOPHER JAMES: I'm going to go a little risky. For Adapted Screenplay, I think CODA will end up winning. The BAFTA win and groundswell for the movie at this exact time thinks it can overtake The Power of the Dog here (but not in Picture).
In Original Screenplay, I also think that the Licorice Pizza/PTA backlash is firing up at the exact wrong time. Voters love Belfast, and this feels like the safest place for it to have one win. Plus, it seems like people who might be swayed to vote for The Worst Person in the World come more from the Licorice Pizza camp than the Belfast camp.
JOSH BIERMAN: Now y’all have me doubting myself. I’m still going to stick to The Power of the Dog in adapted screenplay. Original screenplay seems more up in the air now, but I’m going to stick to Licorice Pizza. For spoilers, I’m going with The Lost Daughter and Belfast.
LYNN LEE: Gah, this is really tough, especially since it feels like a "spread the wealth" Oscars year, which could of course cut in so many different ways. It means original screenplay could go to either Licorice Pizza or Belfast, especially since I don't think they're winning anywhere else. But for the same reason that I don't think Belfast is winning Best Picture, I don't think it takes screenplay, either. It's a nice, well-made, moderately affecting little film that doesn't really dig deep or stand out from the pack, in either a good or a bad way. Licorice Pizza does, for better or worse. As for Don't Look Up, no one seems to be talking about it anymore - though obviously one should never equate what the Twitterati are saying (or not saying) about a movie with how it's landing offline.
I'll split my predictions between wanting to go big and not wanting to go home. Drive My Car for adapted (though literally any of the other nominees could win and not surprise me) and Licorice Pizza for original (with The Worst Person in the World as the potential, and very welcome, upset).
In my heart, though, I'll be hoping for that history-making double international feature win!
FINAL PREDICTIONS...
- CODA: Christopher
- Drive My Car: Lynn
- The Power of the Dog: Matt, Josh
- Belfast: Matt, Christopher
- Licorice Pizza: Lynn, Josh
What about you, dear reader? What are YOU rooting for and what do you think will win?
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Reader Comments (15)
I'm not really interested in predicting. I'll just go with my choices and hope for the best:
Adapted: Drive My Car
Original: The Worst Person in the World
Adapted: The Lost Daughter - they normally can't resist awarding actors turned writers.
Original: Belfast. Come on, Branagh never won an Oscar!!! And they loved the film way more than Licorice Pizza... (plus, again the "actor" rule)
Predix:
Adapted - The Lost Daughter
Original - The Worst Person in the World
Favorites:
Adapted - Drive My Car
Original - The Worst Person in the World
Call me crazy but I have never thought TPOTD was the leader in the Adapted Screenplay race. Campion is obviously winning Director so I do not see the need to reward her here. And I cannot see Joe The Sound Guy voting for The Lost Daughter. Drive My Car is my dark horse but ultimately I feel CODA will prevail.
And I feel Belfast will fairly easily win Original Screenplay. I think LP is rubbing a lot of people the wrong way. Something about a love story between a 15 year old child and a 28 year old woman might have something to do with it. TWPITW would be an inspired choice though.
@ Michael R
Either Joe is an arty Sound Guy or his vote doesn't carry much weight, judging by the most recent winners: The Father, Jojo Rabbit, BlacKkKlansman, Call Me By Your Name, Moonlight, The Big Short, The Imitation Game, 12 Years a Slave.
Adapted is going to Drive My Car or The Lost Daughter. Actors are going to decide this in favor of Drive My Car because it's all about acting as therapy, as healing.
Or maybe they'll want to award one of their own, like they did with Emma Thompson, Billy Bob Thornton and Agfllecf & Damon.
Have not seen the two international features but I'd say it's an uneven lineup for both categories and also in the general crop of the nominated films all around.
Campion is definitely getting best director so I can see a CODA upset here but a TPOTD sweep is still more likely.
I think Dune is a bad screenplay, I did read the book and sometimes the characters are saying the complete opposite from what's in the script but I generally disliked the movie (seen the Lynch adaptation eons ago so I don't remember it but I did read some comments that in the end it simply felt like the adaptation of the 1984 movie instead of the book). Passing or The Tragedy of Macbeth should have been nominated instead.
The Lost Daughter script is too "simple", but the book wasn't elaborate or long either so they did the most they could with the source material.
As for original, my preference is Don't Look Up because of the comedic lines. I think it's in a different ballpark from the rest of the lineup with often being overly talky at times. I think Licorice Pizza is a poor script and BAFTA going with that one is like those endless Sorkin nominations by the HFPA.
I love Belfast to bits but the direction and the actors are the strong points. I'm predicting win but only because they cannot miss out rewarding Branagh for this movie and also make it seem like a career award for him.
King Richard is decent in comparison to a sea of biopic scripts based on some previous work but it's not as remarkable. In fact I'd have Being the Ricardos nominated instead, also because of its use in comedy. How ironic is that last year Sorkin was the poorest in the lineup but at least it kept Mank from getting in.
I expect the Oscars to spread the wealth, as they tend to do in more recent times. So I would guess The Lost Daughter takes adapted, as it's the likeliest place to award a movie that seems to have been gaining so much traction. I hope it doesn't go to CODA, although it wouldnt be the first time that in spreading the wealth they award the weakest aspect of a movie (see also, The imitation game).
Less sure about the original screenplay race... but I'll guess Belfast. It's crazy PTA hasn't got an Oscar, but I'd also be surprised if Branagh went home empty-handed, considering the Academy seemed to like Belfast better and he's the ultimate record-breaking multihyphenate.
Not since 1998's GODS AND MONSTERS has a non-Best Picture nominee won the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar. That's the major thing that keeps me from predicting a THE LOST DAUGHTER surprise victory. The movie seems to be surging at the right time, but I'm not sure that'll be enough in this particular race.
My personal choices would be Dune and The Worst Person in the World. I haven't seen Drive My Car.
But please, please, baby Jesus, do not let Licorice Pizza or especially The Lost Daughter anywhere near a golden statuette. Terrible writing.
CODA winning would be about as good as Bohemian Rhapsody winning Film Editing.
Hope POTD and Worst Person win! Adapted Screenplay is actually a pretty good lineup, the only stinker is CODA. But Jane should still win. Perfect adaptation. What she kept, what she left out, and especially what she invented… it’s perfect
The hardest thing I could imagine: Branagh vs PTA.
My masters, my bests... both criminally overdue.
And both of them deserves it, they made the best movies of the year, movies that talk directly to our hearts.
If it depends on me, "Belfast" is going to win Picture, Director, Supp. Actress (Dench), Original Scrernplay and Original Song (yes, "Down to Joy" is the best nominated song).
If Branagh is going to lose Original Screenplay, it's PTA for the win.
In Adapted Screenplay, I'm going totally with Gyllenhaal. Not 'cause she's my sister-in-low; just 'cause she made the best adaptation, by far.
The hardest thing I could imagine: Branagh vs PTA.
My masters, my bests... both criminally overdue.
And both of them deserves it, they made the best movies of the year, movies that talk directly to our hearts.
If it depends on me, "Belfast" is going to win Picture, Director, Supp. Actress (Dench), Original Screenplay and Original Song (yes, "Down to Joy" is the best nominated song).
If Branagh is going to lose Original Screenplay, it's PTA for the win.
In Adapted Screenplay, I'm going totally with Gyllenhaal. Not 'cause she's my sister-in-law; just 'cause she did the best writing the category, by far.
Adapted
WILL WIN: Power of the Dog
SHOULD WIN: The Lost Daughter
COULD BE NOMINATED: The Green Knight
Original
WILL WIN: Belfast?
SHOULD WIN: The Worst Person in the World
COULD HAVE BEEN: Mass