April Foolish Pt 5 - Who will be our new 'Best Actor'?
Saturday, April 16, 2022 at 3:33PM by Nathaniel R
Hmmmm. Could Hugh Jackman pick up another Tony and the Oscar in the next 10 months?
Which actor will pull an Andrew Garfield this year and get the internet excited about his work with renewed passion? Which actor will pull a Benedict Cumberbatch and become the year's critical darling only to lose the statue? Which actor will pull a Will Smith and be the slam dunk winner due to a well liked performance and his entire career beforehand? We can't possibly know yet but we can speculate about it. So let's do that.
Internet Passions? My crystal ball says either Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (Banshees of Inisherin), or Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Critical Darling? Hmmm. Adam Driver (White Noise), Viggo Mortensen (Crimes of the Future), or Colman Domingo (Rustin)
"It's Time" Career Win Possibilities? Hugh Jackman (The Son), Colin Farrell or Brendan Gleeson (Banshees of Inisherin), Adam Driver (White Noise)
OKAY DRUMROLL PLEASE... AND THE PREDICTIVE 5 ARE...
Oscar Charts *ALL NEW*
Prediction Index | Lead Actor | Supporting Actress | Supporting Actor | Screenplays | Visual Charts | Music Charts | Animated Feature Chart
Reader Comments (20)
Given where they are in their careers, the kinds of projects they are, and that they're both in Netflix productions, Domingo and Driver seem the safest/likeliest nominees. Farrell seems sure to get nominated for something, so why not him reuniting with his In Bruges team? And I'd love it if Nighy finally got a nomination
If i had to pick 5 this far out they'd be
Domingo,Nighy,Jackman,Plemons and Fraser as the Winner.
Jackman, Domingo and Farrell feel like good bets. I'd also suggest Brendan Fraser for The Whale could be the performance-supported-by-heavy prosthetics that tends to get in every year and go with a Make-Up win.
I would also say that according to people who have read the script Brad Pitt's role in Babylon is more of a major supporting mentor with Diego Calva as the Lead.
Almodóvar is shooting a western. It's a short film with two male leads.
Is Franz Rogowski eligible this year for Great Freedom? Absolutely stunning performance.
You have Colin Farrell's pic for Colin Firth, which is likely neither the first nor the last time those two get juxtaposed. I'll bet Steven Spielberg wishes he looked like La Belle Gabriel La Belle when he was a lad.
dtsf -- same initials so i uploaded the wrong pic. lol.
charlie g - you know that's the one rule i haven't figured out. Obviously if the film is nominated it is ineligible the next year but the one gray area is the finalists. I haven't had clarification on whether they are eligible in all categories the following year if that's when they're actually released.
I think Brendan Fraser is further up than tier 3. The comeback narrative is just too strong for the Academy not to bite. Austin Butler way too young for the Oscars (it really is bizarre how poorly young actors have done in Oscar history).
Years from now, when people are (re-)watching Friday Night Lights (which they should!), they will not understand why Jesse Plemons is the one with a respected film career and Oscar nomination(s).
(I meant to mention this sometimes during the last season, but could never find the right thread to do so. This one kind of counts, because it mentions that Michael B. Jordan is still without an Oscar nomination! And, Zach Gilford and Scott Porter doesn't even have film careers, less alone Oscar nominations. The mind really boggles!)
Internet: Brendan Fraser
Critical: Colman Domingo
It's Time: Adam Driver (Colin Ferrell is unnominated so far)
I agree that Brendan Fraser is much higher up than that... it sounds like a meaty comeback role for a huge star that's never been nominated, a heavy (no pun intended) physical transformation, and directed by Darren Aronofsky.
I honestly see him being nominated. But I suppose we'll never know until, well ... the fat lady sings. ;-)
Aronofsky has always written great roles for his actors. I believe that Fraser is a strong contender this year.
My top 5 as of April 2022:
Brendan Fraser
Géza Röhrig
Christian Bale
Colin Farrell
Park Hae-il
i'm sill waiting for the Paul Mescal glow-up
Fraser could certainly be a contender but Aranofsky is majorly hit or miss with Oscar and Fraser has never been an academy favorite. The bull case would be essentially Mickey Rourke in the Wrestler... but The Fountain, Noah, mother! were nowhere near academy tastes. (Same goes for McDonagh btw... only film of his the Academy realizes existed was the one with a massively discourse-y hook and Frances McDormand)
My early five:
Driver, Bale, DiCaprio, Pitt, Domingo
alt. Hanks, Plemons, Butler
Peter - I understand the Rourke comparison in forecasting Fraser's odds in an Aronofsky pic, but don't forget how huge Black Swan was. Aronofsky is definitely hit / miss w the Academy, but he's been off for so long at this point, that if the movie is good I think they'd want to bite.
Plus, it sounds more like the type of thing they'd go for as opposed to The Fountain, Noah, mother! - as u said, no where near Academy taste.
Philip - agree he's definitely in the running, but Aronofsky's films definitely tend towards "deliberately hard to watch" and with a 600-pound-man... we'll see. My point on Rourke is that he was never in the Oscar conversation in his heyday, and I don't recall Fraser ever being there either (rightly or wrongly). Natalie Portman was a previous nominee who very much fit the mold of a future winner. I basically think Nathaniel has his chances pegged correctly.
Hugh Jackman and Colman Domingo, the first two listed, seem very possible: worthy actor, good role, recent interest, good track record.
For the others, I wonder...
Alexander Skarsgard in “The Northman”: popular movie, great cast, go for broke role, critical favourite director.
Christian Bale in “The Pale Blue Eye”: Third outing for this artistically successful actor/ director duo; possible Supporting attention for Harry Melling as a young Edgar Allen Poe.
Wes Studi in “A Love Story”: Since they already gave Wes Studi an honorary Oscar, do they figure, that’s it, or are they self congratulatory, see we were right, look at what a good actor he is.
Ryan Gosling in “The Gray Man”: With the fuss about popular movies needing to be nominated, maybe this seems like a winning combo; popular money maker with a critically lauded actor they actually like.
Joel Edgerton in “Master Gardener”: A personal favourite, Edgerton imo always gives an interesting performance with unexpected undertones. Add co-star Sigourney Weaver (!) and director Paul Schrader = trifecta.
Very good post. Thank you for sharing this with us. Your writing style is fantastic. How to Install Kodi on a USB Drive
Very good post. Thank you for sharing this with us. Your writing style is fantastic. How to Install Kodi on a USB Drive
Just a couple of thoughts (so much has been said so well so far): I see Brendan Fraser as highly possible. Oscar loves a comeback and he was doing so much before he faded away. I think Adam Driver may become the Actor's Amy Adams - Amy has 6 nominations and no win. Adam does strong work but they'll probably ignore him for a while. Tom Hanks may get a nomination but no win - he hasn't paid enough dues for his 3rd Oscar.