Team Experience Predictions Chart - Round 4 - Post Holidays, Pre Awards Shows
Sunday, January 8, 2023 at 5:00PM
We're polling the Team Film Experience on where the Oscar race stands. This week Best Picture, Director, and the Acting and Writing categories.
It has been over a month since we’ve checked in on the directing, acting and writing categories. Since then, Avatar has soared at the box office, Babylon has flopped and both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards have announced their nominations. Some categories look completely different than they did at the end of November. Others, funny enough, remain the same. One category has a contender who is unanimously on the top of everyone’s predictions… and it’s not the one you think.
Check out our predictions after the jump…
The Team
Before we jump into the other categories, let's quickly recap which writers are contributing to these predictions.
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A.B. = Abe Fried-Tanzer
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B.C. = Baby Clyde
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B.M. = Ben Miller
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C.J. = Chris James
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C.A. = Cláudio Alves
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E.B. = Eric Blume
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E.C. = Eurocheese
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E.G. = Elisa Giudici
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G.D. = Glenn Dunks
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N.R. = Nathaniel Rogers (and you can see all his individual charts here)
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N.T. = Nick Taylor
For more about the Film Experience team, visit the About section.
;)
BEST PICTURE
Everything Everywhere All At Once remains at the top of the pack, but its competition remains heated. In round 3, it had five #1 votes and this round it went down to three writers putting it atop their predictions. Meanwhile, Top Gun: Maverick moved up two spots in the power rankings and actually has more #1 votes than Everything Everywhere All At Once. Could this be the year of the blockbuster? Even though they dropped down one spot, The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans both have one writer predicting them to win. Even with a stellar box office run the past three weeks, Avatar: The Way of Water held steady in the fifth position with one writer predicting it for the win.
Elsewhere in the top 10, there is very little movement. Both Elvis and Tár held steady, while Women Talking dipped a bit. After dominating the Oscar shortlists and BAFTA longlists, All Quiet on the Western Front moved up one spot and cemented itself as a major Best Picture player for the nomination. Meanwhile, the poor box office of Babylon has caused it to drop a spot and tie with Glass Onion for the 10th spot. Even though Glass Onion was widely watched on Netflix, it’s proved to be a slightly more divisive than initially expected. Which one will triumph, or will something else sneak into 10th place?
There’s still support out there for Triangle of Sadness, RRR and The Woman King, all lurking just outside the top 10. Some writers also feel like She Said, Aftersun and Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio are in the conversation as well.
;)
BEST DIRECTOR
Even though The Fabelmans continues to fall from the top in Best Picture, Steven Spielberg remains the frontrunner in Best Director. Perhaps this is because no other contender appeared on every writer’s top seven. Three other directors from the first round remained in the top five this go around. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Todd Field (Tár) all remain in the predicted lineup, with both the Daniels and McDonagh sitting atop one writer’s prediction. The biggest shakeup comes from previous winner James Cameron for the blockbuster sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water. He jumped up from ninth place to tying for third place, the biggest jump in the category.
Yet, no one should feel safe. More directors showed up on writers’ predictions. Both Baz Luhrmann (Elvis) and S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) are now in the running and tied for seventh place with Ruben Ostlünd for Triangle of Sadness. The one director to fall out of the predicted five was Sarah Polley (Women Talking), though she is still very much in the hunt. The director branch tends to appreciate international film, which is why Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Bardo) and Park Chan-Wook (Decision to Leave) all received some support from pundits.
;)
BEST ACTRESS
Very little has changed within the Best Actress race since last we checked in on it. Cate Blanchett is still in the lead for Tár, though Michelle Yeoh is stiff competition for Everything Everywhere All At Once. The only shakeup was Danielle Deadwyler (Till) swapping places with Michelle Williams, who has been getting more critiques for her performance in The Fabelmans. Margot Robbie is hanging on to the fifth slot in the category, though Viola Davis is right on her heels for The Woman King. The only other women in conversation continue to be Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Ana de Armas (Blonde) and Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway), which is exactly how it was in November.
;)
BEST ACTOR
We have a new frontrunner. Brendan Fraser dropped from first place to second place after The Whale received mixed notices. Colin Farrell now is at the top of the heat for The Banshees of Inisherin. It’s not just the Farrell vs Fraser category anymore though. Austin Butler now has some writers predicting him to win for playing Elvis. He’ll only become more competitive if he ends up taking the Golden Globes this week. Bill Nighy (Living) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) both round out the category predictions, though Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) is still lurking close in sixth place. All in all, it appears to be a six person race, with no other men placing fifth or higher on any writer’s ballots. Tom Hanks entered the conversation for A Man Called Otto, but is still far from cracking the lineup.
;)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
In a category that is so up in the air, it’s strange that here is the only place where the team came to a consensus. Every writer put Kerry Condon in first place on their predictions for The Banshees of Inisherin. She’s far from a lock to win this category. However, being the standout, lone female in a male-dominated Best Picture contender usually results in a Supporting Actress nomination. No other actress was even mentioned on all writers’ top seven rankings. The only other actress to stay in the predicted five from November was Jessie Buckley for Women Talking. She stays in second place, but still shouldn’t consider herself safe.
Three actresses made significant jumps in the charts. Jamie Lee Curtis was on the outside of the category in Everything Everywhere All At Once, but now is firmly in third place. Tied for fourth place are two very different performances that were both further down the chart in previous predictions. Both Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion) tied for fourth place and could be celebrating their first Oscar nominations. Other women who made major gains over the past month include fellow Everything Everywhere All At Once star Stephanie Hsu and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s Angela Bassett, who would be the first actor nominated for a Marvel performance. Claire Foy (Women Talking), Hong Chau (The Whale) and Nina Hoss (Tár) are still very much in the Oscar hunt, but they fell out of the predicted five after key misses from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
;)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
There has been plenty of movement in the Supporting Actor race since November. Brendan Gleeson is still a major contender for his performance in The Banshees of Inisherin, but he relinquished his frontrunner status to Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All At Once. The only other actor to be unanimously predicted for a nomination is Gleeson’s co-star, Barry Keoghan.
Last round of predictions, both of The Fabelmans actors tied. Now, Paul Dano has pulled ahead of Judd Hirsch and only Dano is in the predicted lineup. Rounding out the category is Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway. Though the movie is a much smaller contender, he has been showing up in a lot of critic based precursors and this increased visibility could earn him his first Oscar nomination. There are plenty of other contenders still in the hunt. Ben Whishaw took a big hit on the charts for his role in Women Talking. However, Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) and Brad Pitt (Babylon) continue to gain support from a few writers. New to the chart is Mark Rylance for his bold, creepy role in Bones and All. Could the previous Oscar winner be the ultimate surprise on Oscar morning?
;)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Very little has changed in the Original Screenplay race, as the top five have stayed the same. Every single one of the five movies appeared somewhere on all writers’ predictions. For the win, it seems to be a race between The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All At Once.
When looking at potential spoilers, Aftersun seems to be cropping up as the main contender to crash the category. International Features like Decision to Leave and Bardo also have some support. Meanwhile, support for Babylon has waned as it sees its Oscar hopes dry up in other categories. Armageddon Time, Nope and Elvis each received a sole longshot mention.
;)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
When we last polled writers, Women Talking was a clear frontrunner for the Adapted Screenplay prize. Though it is still at the top of the pile, it appears we have a race with Glass Onion. Both of those films are the only perceived locks in the category, which could go a variety of different ways. In third place is The Whale, but the play adaptation is far from secured. Living further secured its position in the category, but it still feels very vulnerable in the category. The biggest change to the category is All Quiet on the Western Front, which rocketed up the predictions after the film’s strong showing on the Oscar shortlists and BAFTA longlists.
It’s not the only film that is making major gains in this category. Top Gun: Maverick jumped up two places and is within striking distance of a nomination. This happens while movies like She Said, White Noise, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio and Bones and All seem to be dropping from writers’ predicted lineup.
Where do you think the race stands as of now? Let us know in the comments below.
Previous Weeks:
Round 1: Post Thanksgiving Snapshot
Reader Comments (12)
Thanks, these are so much fun and exciting. A consensus seems to be forming, although some things can still change and nothing's certain yet.
My biggest discrepancies here are James Cameron, who I actually see missing for Director a la Villaneuve last year. I don't think time will be kind to Avatar 2 and that specific branch has good taste. It's not like they owe him anything.
Also whatever's going on in Supporting Actress is beyond me and I can't even. Like, Carey Mulligan is in 11 place and I can totally see her getting nominated.
Love the chaos, hope it doesn't settle.
Dismiss Kozinski at director at your own risk. IF Top Gun:Maverick is aiming to a Best Picture win - it actually can - then Kozinski is probably close to secure a nomination... at this point I have...
Cameron
Daniels
Kozinski
McDonagh
Spielberg
Cameron and/or Spielberg could be easily replaced with some foreign language film director or even del Toro and his directing partner in Pinochio... (which should happen, by the way). Rajamouli nominated wouldn't surprise me in the slightest
Another fun thing - if these nominations came to pass, 16 out of the 20 acting nominees would be first timers. The whole male categories. I don't remember something like this happening recently.
I agree with Lucky about James Cameron, and I actually think Avatar 2 is being overestimated in general. I currently still have it getting in for Best Picture, but I have it at #10 and wouldn’t be surprised at all to see it miss out in the end. Honestly, Visual Effects and Sound are the only categories it feels fully locked up in. Production Design and Cinematography are likely as well, but I’m reminded of how the cinematography branch didn’t nominate either of the next two Lord of the Rings movies after the first one won in that category, which I feel might be a possible outcome here as well. I’ve got to believe some will leave it off their ballots simply because they don’t want to risk the larger membership voting for it to win (which I think was probably what happened with the Lord of the Rings movies back in the day).
This definitely feels like a boycott-the-Oscars year. Yeoh will probably lose to someone who obviously absolutely somehow needs to win a 3rd Oscar, and Top Gun will probably win Best Picture.
These are great and it's fun seeing all the shifts in the race!
I have a hard time seeing Margot Robbie making it all the way. Given how poorly her film has done, and how conscious the academy/hollywood is about box office and popularity, I think she's the only real shot for her film outside of tech. Viola is a great campaigner, so is a big threat. I also think Olivia Colman gives an incredible performance, but if she got nominated it would have to be a real "the academy loves Olivia" kind of thing.
I'm not sold on Brian Tyree Henry. Maybe apple has the juice, but I'd expect to see him and Jennifer Lawrence to be more of a pair of nominations, and she's really lagging.
I love the dynamics in the supporting actress race. There are so many solid contenders, and other than Condon, I don't think anyone is a lock. At the same time, I don't think Condon can win either, so it's going to be a fun race. I am starting to wonder if TAR love could carry Nina Hoss to a nomination. I could see a world in which the top tier best picture nominees yield all the nominees in that category: Condon, Hoss, Hsu, Curtis, and Monae or Buckley. In the past few years, the women on the edge of getting in tend to come from BP players, rather than being standalone nominees.
On actor, I do wonder if speeches/wins at the golden globes will shift the race. Sony Pictures Classics is doing an amazing job with Living, and I could see a world where Nighy wins the globe (though Butler is more likely), and Farrell kind of rocks in to first place after that.
Surprised by the general resistance to call Jamie Lee Curtis the frontrunner.
I don't get it about The Banshees. I thought it was entertaining, but don't think any of the performances were that great. Just call me Mr. Negative.
I"m not sure who will win Best Actress. I wouldn't bet on Cate Blanchett. She's won too recently. Look how long Meryl had to wait for #3. And the only one who couldn't wait so far is Frances McDormand. That's probably because Hollywood was awash in Me Too.
Agree Peggy Sue RE Nat's predictions In what world is Buckley a lock and not Curtis who has so much history,a few snubs,Hollywood Royalty,long overlooked,in the BP frontrunner,maybe it's don't jinx her type deal.
I just hope this love for Curtis gets people to discover her in Mother's Boys which she is total camp in,it's still not on DVD in the UK.
Someone mentioned a Jennifer Connelly nom and I could see it happening,there's always someone who comes out of nowhere in a BP contender.
rrrich7 I enjoyed Farrell and Keoghan but I don't get the Condon fuss at all or exactly what Gleeson did but look grumpy for 2 hrs,truly hope neither win,I'd rather Bassett did to make up for 93's loss.
I also didn't see anything special in Janelle Mona's performance but apparently it's Oscar worthy,she looked good in the clothes and that's all I remember about her in it
Cruise will stop it being all 1st timers in the lead mens race and maybe Redmayne in supporting.
EEAAO could produce anything from two acting nominations and zero wins, to four nominations and three wins.
I do think three nominations and one win (Quan, with Hsu left out) is most likely at this point. But you never know, Yeoh could take a decisive lead over Blanchett, Curtis could get some momentum as the televised awards begin. But none of that is guaranteed, nobody knows.
I will say, my positionings on the chart are NOT for who I think will win, but who is likeliest to be nominated. Some of these are very "if they can get the nomination..." situations like Curtis who, if she can actually get the nomination, seems likelier than Kerry Condon to actually win, but Condon seems the surer bet for the nomination given their respective roles. Similarly, I think Austin Butler is the surest bet in Best Actor based purely on the role (he, Deadwyler and Ana De Armas are the only traditional biopic roles this year which is why I still think De Armas is within very real shot), but various factors would mean I'm still predicting Farrell for the win.
I'm still just not sure on TAR although the last weekend makes me think I will probably have to bump it up to at least number ten. I keep thinking THE WOMAN KING, as the only movie with a predominantly black cast in the running, will make a surge, but the guilds maybe don't suggest that will be happening.
I may get laugh at, but my feeling for the ultimate wins is...
Picture - Banshees
Director - McDonagh
Actor - Farrell
Actress - Cate
S. Actor - Gleeson
S. Actress - Curtis
Adapted - Women Talking
Original - Banshees
Score - Fabelmans
Song - RRR "Naatu Naatu"
Cinematography - Fabelmans
Film Editing - Top Gun: Maverick
Production Design - Babylon
Costume - EEAAO
Sound - Top Gun: Maverick
VFX - Avatar 2
Make Up - The Whale
Foreign - All Quiet On The Western Front
Animated - Pinochio
Documentary - Fire of Love