Oscar Volley: Look at that -- Best Picture is actually a good time!

Team Experience has been pairing or tripling up to discuss the Oscar categories. Here's the (presumed) final award of Sunday night with Elisa Giudici, Nathaniel R, and Eric Blume...

NATHANIEL: Hello team. The final category. Best Picture is such a big big topic, 1434 minutes big. Or 24 and a half hours big if you wanted to watch all the films back to back... though, really, why would you? That's a lot of movie and it's also a lot of Movie-Movie since these mostly aren't shy and self-effacing films. With the exception of Women Talking, if all of these movies were at a party together they'd each try to be the life of it. Or at least life-adjacent. Banshees of Inisherin might just gab away in a corner and The Fabelmans might just watch everyone / everything... but quite enthusiastically! 

I picture Avatar The Way of Water arriving first, because it can't be bothered with a schedule and eager to scope out the scene and really become the vibe. TAR will arrive last with a big flourish and bold gestures expecting the party to shape-shift around it. I'm starting with a party-theme because I am willing myself to stay positive...

And also because I confess I really love a full half of these movies (which is rare). I think we all know who is leaving the festivities with the most party favors from that naked gold host but we don't have to start there.

Please enter this party festively and tell me what you think of the room...

ERIC: Nat, I'm not a party boy like you, but I can easily stay positive: ,I think this is without question the best overall list of Best PIcture nominees since the expansion in 2009.  Usually there's at least one or two absolute turds in there (Hacksaw Ridge, Trial of the Chicago 7, CODA, etc.), but these are all pretty solid movies.  Even the two I think are the weakest, Top Gun: Maverick and Elvis, have high highs are are superbly crafted pictures.  

It's also a year of marvelous breadth.  We have big studio pictures, international flavor, comedy, tragedy, tragicomedy, and movies that don't quite fit easily into any genre.  The technical craft of most of these films is off-the-charts.  No matter what you may feel about Avatar: The Way of Water, it's not up for debate that it's made by extraordinarily talented people doing things that most people in the world cannot do.  For those not enraptured by All Quiet or Triangle of Sadness, surely you can still rejoice that two "foreign" films made the big category.  And personally I was thrilled that Women Talking nailed that final spot rather than The Whale... Sarah Polley made a prickly, weird little film with something to say, and it's unlike any of the other nominees.

Elisa, how are you feeling about the nominees overall this year?

ELISA: I am just as pleased as you two. I would gladly replace a couple of titles with others I liked more, but that’s the point. This group of nominees covers a substantial portion of the spectrum of audiences' tastes. Without including some obvious "intruders", the Academy managed to have a candidate for almost any answer to the question “what is cinema to you?”. 

My only complaint here is that we are still short on genres in a year in which horror - to name one - gave us some very strong titles. On the other end, I am overjoyed by the contamination of international cinema, even if they did not choose the movies I was hoping for. Furthermore, I was heartened by the absence of some Oscar contenders in this category that had a lot of buzz but I considered too weak to belong. Unlike you Eric, I would be pleased to see The Whale, but Women Talking is an excellent alternative.

Overall, I like this party and I want to dance.

You left me with the difficult part though, didn't you? I’ll try to rule out nominees that don’t have a chance of winning. I would say we can easily rule out Avatar and Top Gun as their main job was to show up here. Triangle of Sadness also won by grabbing this nomination at all. Women Talking could have stood a stronger chance but the campaign was a little bit messed up. I think it could have easily grabbed another nomination or two. I would put both Elvis and The Fabelmans in the category “they had their momentum... but too early”. 

NATHANIEL: Up until nomination morning, I did think that Top Gun Maverick had an outside shot at taking the top prize so I'd move it into the Elvis & Fabelmans category you listed of 'momentum too early'. But agree on the rest mostly. Which according to how you're divvying things up, leaves TAR, All Quiet on the Western Front, and The Banshees of Inisherin trying to take down awards magnet Everything Everywhere All At Once. 

TAR has exhibited real staying power in the imagination of people who obsess over movies and its fans are passionate but it's way too challenging of a drama for mass appeal (which you basically need to win the top prize). This is also why I think Blanchett is going to lose... Oscar has rarely given Best Actress to "unlikeable" women and TAR consistently challenges you about Lydia's character .  So it's just Banshees and... All Quiet?  

This late in the season, with EEAAO becoming less of "a real film to discuss, warts and all" and more of a "thing to worship/actively root for!" -- this is not a knock on the movie, by the way, just the way awards season plays out annually -- it's becoming more difficult to imagine an upset happening. While The Globes favored Banshees and The Fabelmans the Globes feel like they took place six months ago (fact check: it's been 8 weeks). If BAFTA had broke towards Banshees of Inisherin rather than All Quiet, I'd say it was a neck and neck race or at least a neck and...um... chest race, but Everything Everywhere has been winning so many things of late it now feels like a neck and, uh, toe race with all other contenders crushed under its feet.  Only The Banshees of Inisherin feels like a threat, and only a tiny threat because of the weighted ballot. I'd argue that Banshees is the least divisive of the ten films nominated, which is funny because it's about a great divide that there's no way to come back from.

Which is a long way of saying that I dont suspect All Quiet on the Western Front got as much of a boost from BAFTA as its big win there might have suggested in another season.

ERIC: You have distilled this race perfectly.  It's indeed sad that TAR is too challenging for a mass win.  The only film similarly challenging to win in recent years was Nomadland, a film that won probably because everyone was in a very dark, introspective COVID place?  I mean, to this day I am still shocked that a movie that good won Best Picture.  Winners are usually much more mainstream, and I think EEAAO has a little bit of a blockbuster feel despite all the dildoes and more challenging aspects.  TAR is just too demanding and obtuse and difficult to go the distance (though I still think Cate might).

I agree that All Quiet doesn't have the mojo to beat EEAAO.  I'm a big fan of the film, but it also isn't perfect, and it doesn't have that feeling of "UNDENIABLE MASTERPIECE" like Parasite had two years ago.  It'll win International Film and likely one or two additional Oscars, which means it will still have a wonderful night.  

We don't believe BANSHEES OF INISHERIN will go home empty-handed

Back in January, it seemed like Banshees was about even-steven with EEAAO.  While I don't think it stands a real chance now, there is still an incredible amount of love for that film, especially among actors and especially among the international contingent (which makes up a LOT of voters).  It's not going home empty handed.  I think because The Daniels will likely win Best Director that voters will go for McDonagh for Original Screenplay, and I firmly believe Kerry Condon will be our supporting actress winner.  I also still, despite all the punditry, feel Colin Farrell stands an excellent shot at winning... I won't be at all surprised to hear his name called.  In a race that close, it counts to have worked with far, far more voters across every category than your competition, and Ferrell is beloved by everyone he's worked with for two decades.  But that's another category.  All to say that because Banshees won't pull off the big award, the love will be syphoned off in other areas.

Elisa, are you feeling any of the three films mentioned might make a steal from EEAAO?

ELISA: At this point in the race, Daniels' movie has become the favorite almost everywhere, so it feels like it has already won the top prize. There will be a category or two that I think will surprise us. This is my insight, even if right now it seems like EEAAO can even sweep.

It can either win absolutely everything, everywhere, at all once, or miss some significant pieces here and there. This is due to the desire of voters to split the awards in a more ecumenical way. Insider reports often discuss the urge of voters to change the titles they cross after 5 or fewer categories. Can the best picture be the one in which they switch their vote in favor of another contender? 

Fandoms will prioritize their darlings in the best picture race, of course. TAR and All Quiet might be edgy choices for Europeans. If I recall correctly, actors account for only 14% of the whole Academy, so they are not the most important members. 

A majority of voters are in other professional categories, which means that they vote for PGA, DGA, and WGA. Everything is winning all of them. Even the kind of prestigious picture award people mention as “the prize every Best Picture Oscar winner has won except in 1992". Daniels' future is bright for sure. 

And yet, after La La Land and CODA, an undeniable risk could be that a perfect night for EEAAO will lead to missing the final, most significant prize. My feeling is that Banshees is the strongest adversary but some of its strength will be drained by the competition with Quiet and  Tár. In this category, probably EEAAO will win because there are too many viable alternatives to split the votes of those who don't love it. 

The secret power of EEAAO is that, under all its layers of sci-fi and fighting, there is an emotional, reassuring, kind tale about a family. Family and heart. Likewise, Tár and Banshees are about family and loved ones, but their vision is not the least bit comforting. It will probably be their fatal flaw in the eyes of Academy voters. 

So we all agree EEAAO is the front-runner.

NATHANIEL: Yep. My final statement goes like so

is a sweep so out of reach for "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

• Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
• Should Win: The Fabelmans (yes, I realize I'm far more into this movie than most) 
• Spoiler: Banshees of Inisherin

But all three are totally wonderful movies so I'll be happy on Oscar night.

ERIC: It's a bummer that we don't have much of a real race here, but again I think the win is having ten really terrific pictures.  My thoughts:

• Will Win: EEAAO
• Should Win:  TAR
• Spoiler:  BANSHEES

ELISA: I really hope that Oscar Night provides us some (good) surprises. 

• Will Win: EEAAO
• Should Win: TAR or Banshees
• Spoiler: Banshees

RELATED:

• Oscar Volley: Director
• Oscar Volley: Actress
• Oscar Volley: Supporting Actress
• Oscar Volley: Supporting Actor
• Oscar Volley: International Feature
• Oscar Volley: Doc Feature
• Oscar Volley: Costume Design
• Oscar Volley: Cinematography
• Oscar Volley: Visual Effects
• Oscar Volley: Best Original Song
• Oscar Volley: Animated Feature
• Oscar Volley: Film Editing

Comments

[Tony L]

Thank you Eric and half of Elisa (haha) for having Tar as your should win, or half of it lol. I hope for some good surprises too - like I said before, an EEAAO sweep would be boring to me.

[Sad Man]

I only like 3 of these: EEAAO, Tar and Banshees. I'd be happy with any of them winning, with EEAAO being the correct choice in many ways.

As for the rest, they are all mediocre films, with only one being truly terrible: Elvis.So, that's not too bad in terms of Oscars quality. There's usually more than one garbage film.

[Peter]

Great breakdown. Only quibble is I think if there is a surprise it would be All Quiet, with craft guilds, foreign members, and old traditionalists preferring it to EEAAO. But after the major guild sweep and very winning Oscar campaign, I’d put it at a 1-2% chance of an upset.

[Mr Ripley79]

EEAAO is winning but Tar,Women Talking,Banshees are all impressive films.

[nore]

Everything Everywhere All At Once hit me (and many many others) really hard emotionally all three times I've seen it, and I would be beyond thrilled to see it win. When's the last time a film that feels this fresh, youthful, energetic, and exciting was even at the oscars, much less stood a real chance of winning? I know it can feel boring rooting for a frontrunner, but it's rare to find a film I think is legitimately the best winning best picture on Oscar night. I know Parasite was only a couple years ago, but that also felt special and somewhat unbelievable. I also, like all of you, think all the nominated frontrunners especially (Tár, Banshees, etc) are excellent films that would reflect well upon the Academy to have as winners. And I love this year's appreciation for comedy!
Here's to unbelievable winners every year!

[Wae Mest]

Nah, the 2010, 2012, and 2013 lineups were all better. ELVIS *is* an absolute turd, and so is TOP GUN.