T'was the night before Oscar...
Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 7:23PM 
... are you ready for your Oscar night parties tomorrow? We're keeping it super low key this year chez moi though I miss the salad days of huge parties and more time to devote to Oscar mania. But it is what it is. Time marches on and things change. But while we have a few days to go to wrap up this particular Oscar season given that there is always the need for a bit of post-mortem, I wanted to go over my personal predictions quickly since you've read the Team Predictions and the Oscar Volleys. I feel less secure than usual... and that's fun! Unpredictable Oscar nights are much more interesting.
Here are very quick notes on each category. Links go to the Oscar charts for that category. If a category has a "lock" by it that means any other winner would be a total shock. Categories in red are true mysteries. It really feels like multiple outcomes (not just two) are possible so those envelope tears will be exciting...
PICTURE - Everything Everywhere All At Once
There's just no way it loses though I'd wager Banshees is the distant second. Oh to see vote totals even if it would be torturous as you couldn't discuss them!
DIRECTOR - Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once
I know I said "Spielberg' on the team predictions but since then I've realized that there just isn't that much sentiment or need to give Spielberg a third. It's the same problem Cate Blanchett might have in Best Actress.
ACTRESS - Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
This race is surely tight between Blanchett and Yeoh but I suspect that the unlikeability of character factor will hinder Cate just enough that narrative excitement and respect for a performance that only Yeoh could have given will result in an historic win. But as with Day-Lewis or McDormand or Streep... Blanchett's is not the kind of career that would make anyone question a third win. So... up in the air!
ACTOR - Fraser, The Whale
A lot of people are predicting Butler and though that would make me happier as it's a more exciting performance, but it still wouldn't be that exciting since Oscar has handed SO many Oscars to performers doing musical biopics. In my lifetime alone there's been Sissy Spacek, Reese Witherspoon, Rami Malek, Jamie Foxx. Plus, it's still not what's needed here. Can we put some goddamn respect on Colin Farrell's name for once. What's he going to have to do to win. No wait don't answer that I know. Give a subpar performance under prosthetics in a biopic or "important" but dull drama?
SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Condon, Banshees of Inisherin
While I predicted Bassett on the teams post, and Curtis has been campaigning hard (and is superb and inventive in her film) I've decided that in this volatile category, the two "reward the legendary career!" narratives are going to cancel each other out, like the red sea parting, leaving Condon to walk up to the podium as the winner. Love love love her performance but the internet will be so hateful if she wins over either of the two legends. (sigh)
SUPPORTING ACTOR - Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
The most locked category of the night. Period.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Banshees of Inisherin
Sweeps have not yet happened in the modern era so EEAAO might lose a couple of expected trophies, including this one. Banshees of Inisherin is running too strongly at second place to lose all of its categories and we suspect they'll think of it as a writer's movie due to McDonagh's very clear (and admired) voice.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Women Talking
I considered changing this vote from Women Talking to All Quiet. The fact is that non-english language films just dont rack up *that* many nominations and then go home with only the "International" Oscar. On the other hand, Women Talking has devout fans which is how it got into the Best Picture race at all despite not doing well otherwise. It also feels like more of a writer's film.
CINEMATOGRAPHY - All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis (Mandy Walker) also feels quite possible and would make for a historic win since no female DPs have won. Flip a coin.
COSTUME DESIGN - Elvis
Probably a tight race. It's easy to picture any of the nominees being read as the winner. But it's dumb to bet against Catherine "Oscar Magnet" Martin
PRODUCTION DESIGN - Babylon
Probably a foolish guess given the tepid Oscar response to the film. But if it's not Babylon, would it really be yet another Catherine Martin win via Elvis. Or is this there place where All Quiet, Avatar, or The Fabelmans pick up a surprise extra trophy? Feels volatile!
VISUAL EFFECTS - Avatar The Way of Water
There is simply no way it loses.
MAKEUP AND HAIR - The Whale
I'm probably going to regret not choosing Elvis aren't I? I suppose we'll see if we should start taking the "Best Makeup goes with Lead Actor/Actress now" trend seriously if this lines up with Best Actor because it sure might either way it goes
FILM EDITING - Everything Everywhere All At Once
A likely win -- even BAFTA went there and BAFTA otherwise didn't reward this movie -- but it's also easy to imagine scenarios where Top Gun Maverick or All Quiet on the Western Front surprise.
ORIGINAL SCORE - Banshees of Inisherin
I'd wager this is THE most competitive category of the night even if it doesn't feel like it since no one is talking much about it. It's easy to make a case for any of the nominees prevailing. The Fabelmans John Williams could win on sentiment (and so that the movie doesn't go home emptyhanded), The Banshees of Inisherin could win due to love for the movie and general Irish-mania this year plus Carter Burwell has never won, All Quiet on the Western Front could win because the score is so "LISTEN TO ME!" obtrusive and people obviously responded in a big way to the film given its nominations tally. Everything Everywhere All At Once could win if the film proves a major or even a mini-sweeper. Babylon should be an easy win as the class of the competition in terms of music but it's from the movie that the least amount of people have warm feelings for so... total nail-biter!
I decided to switch my prediction to Banshees for fun since most people have named it the longest shot in this field --why not? No risk no glory.
ORIGINAL SONG - "Naatu Naatu" RRR
One of the sorry side effects of the atrocious taste of the music branch when it comes to song nominations each year is that it often removes any drama from this race; If you only nominate one good song from a movie people love, than that's probably going to be the winner! At least it better be but Oscar voters are NOT to be trusted when it comes to this particular category which is the only reason there's not a "lock" image beside "Naatu Naatu" which is better than all four of its competitors combined.
SOUND - Top Gun Maverick
I think this is so it doesn't go home empty-handed but Elvis or All Quiet on the Western Front also feel possible.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE - All Quiet on the Western Front
Nothing else stands a chance though at one point earlier in the year it seemed like either Belgium's Close (nominated) or South Korea's Decision to Leave (snubbed) might be the film to beat. It was not to be.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT - Le Pupille
Charming and eccentric and high profile... plus it comes with Oscar-winning pedigree. But still, nothing is ever certain in the shorts categories. It would also be thrilling to see The Red Suitcase win.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Navalny
I predicted Fire of Love originally. Longtime readers know I leave discussions of this artform to others so I surprised myself and saw many more docs than usual this year and thought this one was especially strong. Naturally the only nominee I didn't squeeze in is the one everyone is now predicting!
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT - Haulout
This movie is so incredible that it will be a horrible smear on Oscar's reputation if they pass it over. But they might as it's more "difficult" in form than its competitive set.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Given that it didn't do as well in the nominations as people expected (not even Best Original Song? ) it's possible that there might be an upset in this category. If there is we think it will be Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT - An Ostrich Told Me That the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It...
It has competition in the "fun title!" sweepstakes with My Year of Dicks (which is very good) but I think voters will love its meta-qualities in this year of trippy identity crises and 'what is reality?' kind of questions (see also the Best Picture frontrunner). Wild guess yes and I will probably be wrong! Ice Merchants is the best in the category but it's hard to imagine it winning as the other films have 'hooks' for voters that are easier to suss out.
So I guess i'm predicting 5 Oscars for Everything Everywhere All At Once and, in a surprise, 3 for The Banshees of Inisherin with nothing else winning more than two. (Or is my love for Banshees just getting in the way?)
The true wildcard thoughs are surely Elvis and All Quiet on the Western Front. Both are arguably only frontrunners in a single category but both feel like they could have Oscar nights ranging anywhere from that single win to five statues. How are you feeling about the final trophy hauls for this year's crop?
Oscars (22), Punditry
Reader Comments (11)
I would be THRILLED if Banshees won 3. But I'm only predicting 1 (Condon). I really think she's got it.
I will be so SAD and upset if TAR goes home empty-handed, which seems to may be a possibility- but I’m sticking with Cate getting her third, and I would be so excited if Todd won one as well.
Also put down Conden for Supporting, but I will be happy for any of those ladies.
Colin Farrell is certainly bound to come back several times over. He'll get that Oscar! I'm choosing Butler, but... I just don't know.
Tar left me cold, and that is all the more reason I'm excited for Michelle Yeoh to get this. You go, Girl!
Just please don't let An Irish Goodbye win live action short. It is awful.
I have everything bagels and Chinese food set for tomorrow night and I'll be rooting hard for EEAAO!
I'm a little worried it might have peaked a week early, but even if it shockingly walks home empty-handed it has already been amply rewarded and its journey as weird tiny film to Oscar front-runner frankly has been an immense JOY and not even whatever happens at the actual Oscars can ruin that.
HAULOUT is my favourite in its category (though I haven't seen HOW DO YOU MEASURE A YEAR?), but I hadn't seen anyone predict it until now. So the predictions I set in stone this morning now have one change. If THE ELEPHANT WHISPERERS now wins, I'll be coming for you, Rogers...
I think AQOTWF is the BP spoiler, I know it's not English and Netflix-bias but the anti-war narrative cannot be denied.
I want Blanchett to win because to me it's a performance for the ages, but I'll accept Yeoh as a "spread the wealth" win and the historic part but I was embarrassed for her a lot of times in the movie.
I really don't want Fraser to win though, I'm a big fan of Nighy's performance but to me Butler was undeniable in an otherwise mess of a film (unlike Rami Malek). If Malek could win for that, Butler is the obvious frontrunner for playing Elvis until the envelope is opened.
I think costume and makeup are also Elvis, "most makeup AND fat suit" trumps "just fat suit". Amsterdam should have been nominated in both.
Last category I want to highlight is adapted screenplay. Women Talking would be deserved winner but it feels wrong if I remember Glass Onion and Living, both are notable. The other two are terrible nominations but for reasons stated, AQOTWF will prevail here. Isn't it the one category where the BAFTA is the most indicative prediction?
It will be interesting to see how acting winners reflect the precursors, two years ago BAFTA was 4/4, last year it was 3/4 (Chastain not even nominated). Now people predict that only Condon would be the repeated winner. The Globes are poised to be at least a 2/4 match which is last years ratio, the year before it was an incredibly rare 1/4 (with Foster not even nominated). 2018 ended up 4/4 while SAG was 2/4, will history repeat itself?
I'm a Condon agnostic.
I think if anything spoils Everything Everywhere's chances at Best Picture, it will be All Quiet, not Banshees. People who thought EEAAO was "too weird" probably thought Banshees was also weird. But then, I actively disliked Banshees so I'm not exactly the Academy at large.
I think Butler will win Best Actor as well. I don't know how many "comebacks" the Academy needs to support this year, and really, Butler was the only really great thing about that movie.
100% agree on Haulout, Nathanial, thank you. I was so impressed (and heartbroken) by that film. If that Stranger at the Gate thing wins (with its weird POV centered on the twisted white guy's redemption over the lives of the innocent people he came this close to massacring), I'll lose what little respect I have left for that branch of the academy.
Also: along with several of the major categories, a lot of the tech categories feel very unsettled this year—thank goodness! Should be an interesting night.
I will be so sad and angry if TAR goes home empty-handed, which appears to be a possibility. However, I'm sticking with Cate winning her third, and I'd be ecstatic if Todd also won. word hurdle