Nathaniel's Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

by Nathaniel R

It's that time to finally stop over-analyzing and just share it! Long time readers might say "what over-analyzing? you've barely spoken!" but please know that I've still been over-analyzing in my head if not out loud. But let's do this quickly and move on that strange long deadspace between nominations and Hollywood's High Holy Night, the time period in which we hope to be more active and really dive into the Oscar contenders and our own personal awards. But before we get there: FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS...

BEST PICTURE
This category has never felt easier to predict. Exactly ten movies have had impeccable awards seasons thus far. Not eight or nine or eleven or twelve but ten, exactly. Since that's the exact width of the top category let's not belabor it so we can get right to the far more difficult predictions... 

• American Fiction [LOCK]
• Anatomy of a Fall [in all likelihood]
• Barbie [LOCK]
• The Holdovers [LOCK]
• Killers of the Flower Moon [LOCK]
• Maestro [in all likelihood]
• Oppenheimer [LOCK]
• Past Lives [LOCK]
• Poor Things [LOCK]
• The Zone of Interest [in all likelihood] 

With these ten films so thoroughly dominating precursor season it would be a major surprise if Saltburn, May December, Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse, or anything else managed to slip in. One of them might of course but we're not seeing any chinks in the armor of the top ten. It's rare to have the PGA list repeat exactly at the Oscars but it feels most probable this time. 

BEST DIRECTOR
Here things get much tricker and potentially more shocking as recently discussed. Gerwig, Lanthimos, Nolan, Payne, and Scorsese landed DGA nods and helmed the five "biggest" films in terms of potential Oscar hauls. So they're "ahead", so to speak. But the Directors branch at the Academy has been known to be intermittently iconoclastic on occasion. So you never know. Plus the DGA five do not tell you the whole story of the season with breakout pictures from Celine Song (Past Lives), Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), also doing very well in awards season. What's more the non-prolific genius Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) is enjoying his most universally acclaimed success to date. We'd feel better about Todd Haynes as a potential surprise (May December) if the director's branch had shown any interest in his cinema before now... but they don't "get" him, obviously and what's more the film is a contemporary story with a (purposeful) overlay of tabloid trashiness which cuts into the prestige factor of awarding a director who everyone understands is long overdue. I would be predicting Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) if precursors had shown any interest in her as a director but her film is clearly viewed as a triumph of acting and writing first and foremost (whether or not that's fair is another story). In the end I think the branch members who lean toward art films and international films are going all in on Lanthimos and Glazer. So who is vulnerable? Greta Gerwig (if they turn their nose up with jealousy at her incredible success) or Alexander Payne (if they feel he had an easier lift than his competitors in terms of directing challenges... which he kinda did!). 

• Chris Nolan, Oppenheimer [LOCK]
• Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon [LOCK]
• Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things [probably]
• Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest [maybe]
• Greta Gerwig, Barbie [maybe]

With Alexander Payne just as likely as Greta Gerwig, really.

BEST ACTRESS
There are years in which the five players get locked up real quick. This has not been one of those years, exactly, though it is also not that far off from it. So we're thinking it goes as expected like so...

• Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon [LOCK]
• Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall [in all likelihood]
• Carey Mulligan, Maestro [probably]
• Margot Robbie, Barbie [vulnerable]
• Emma Stone, Poor Things [LOCK] 

Any lineup without Gladstone (sympathetic center of highly lauded film) and Stone (career best work from an Oscar winner) would be a jaw-dropper given the way the season has played out. The rest of the predicted quintet aren't quite locked up due to four potential spoilers in the house. While Margot Robbie feels vulnerable given Oscar's historical problem with seeing the worth in both grand movie star turns and in comic performances, we're not convinced that any of the potential replacements have enough momentum to unseat her; Annette Bening (Nyad) has been passed over for far better performances than her latest; Natalie Portman (May December) is in a film that has struggled getting traction and like Bening has an unlikeable* character; Greta Lee (Past Lives) headlined the sleeper hit indie of the year but her character isn't showy** and she never became a sure thing awards deal; Finally, Fantasia Barrino (Color Purple) sings beautifully but that's only enough for big deal awards traction in acting categories if they love the film overall (think Dreamgirls with its 8 nominations). 

* Thankfully playing an "unlikeable" character isn't half the hindrance it used to be for actresses winning their just kudos but it's still a vaguely general truth that it's easier for male actors to receive praise (and prizes) for playing abrasive or problematic people.

** This shouldn't be an issue if you do 'unshowy' beautifully BUT everyone knows that "Most" is often equated with "Best" --and not just among Academy voters but critics, too -- and it definitely helps to be some combo of both of those things. 

BEST ACTOR
The other lead category feels less ripe for an upset but you never know.

• Bradley Cooper, Maestro [probably]
• Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers [LOCK]
• Colman Domingo, Rustin [vulnerable only because his picture has no heat elsewhere]
• Cilliam Murphy, Oppenheimer [LOCK]
• Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction [probably]

All but Wright have landed in all four major precursors (Globes, SAG, CCA, BAFTA) and Wright has strong momentum since American Fiction was a late release that caught on. There isn't a lot of wiggle room for the potential spoilers like Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), and Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) though any of the three might muscle their way in if their film happens to overperform on Tuesday. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The supporting categories this year feel unusually volatile for this late in the game. This is probably because they have such slam-dunk frontrunners (whether or not one agrees with the impending coronations of Da'Vine Joy Randolph and Robert Downey Jr is moot; they're happening). That steamrolling effect creates a bit of a vacuum as to who can pick up the passion votes from the few people who aren't in those camps.

Supporting Actress

• Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer [LOCK]
• Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple [vulnerable]
• America Ferrara, Barbie [no guts no glory prediction]
• Jodie Foster, Nyad [vulnerable]
• Da'Vine Joy Randolph, the Holdovers [LOCK]

That's the prediction but numerous other combos could easily happen provided they include Blunt and Randolph as not one or two but SIX other women feel theoretically possible even this late in the game: Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) has Oscar history and is marvelous in her film but is the acting branch actually watching it? Only SAG responded; Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) is a joy to watch in a movie that might overperform though its "rise" might be an internet-only effect due to its streaming timing and the conversation tending to skew younger on social media; Jullianne Moore (May December) is an Oscar darling and has some precursor support though her character is off-putting which in a tightrace probably won't help; People aren't really talking about Erika Alexander (American Fiction) who is easily giving the best supporting performance in her film but "coattails" are a thing if a film and a lead campaign are hot which is the case here; Speaking of coattails the internet seems to believe that Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest) could parlay her sensational year (and Best Actress campaign) into a double nomination though I personally doubt it because it's rare to receive a supporting nomination in a non English language film and even rarer to win an acting nomination without the benefit of close-ups; And, finally, Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It's Me Margaret) is a loveable longshot possibility if enough voting members watched her film. They probably didn't, though. Year after year its glaringly evident how few pictures actually get watched by the bulk of the voting members. That's why we're giving the fifth slot to America Ferrera, not just because of an effortful campaign to get her nominated but because Barbie has been ever-present all year.  

Supporting Actor

• Sterling K Brown, American Fiction [maybe]
• Willem Dafoe, Poor Things [vulnerable]
• Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon [probably]
• Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer [LOCK]
• Ryan Gosling, Barbie [LOCK]

This is the category where I'm using the most pessimism in my predictions since this would be a weakish lineup given the options.

Recent Oscar history suggests that its very likely that both Dafoe and the even better Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things) score in tandem; they love a double in the supporting categories. That said the precursors have been indecisive about which one of them is stronger in the film and BAFTA, the last major precursor to vote, didn't include either of them! So we're giving the edge to Dafoe (who has made it in before with less buzz than he has this year) and Brown who has the advantage of good timing, a hot picture, and no internal competition. All that said the predictions that are starting to pop up for Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) do not feel at all far-fetched. He has a leading role which always helps -- sigh -- in the supporting categories and he's a true natural onscreen. What's more his film is not divisive in the way, say, critical darling Charles Melton's (May December) is.

Any name beyond those eight would be a surprise though BAFTA did remind us that Jacob Elordi (Saltburn) and Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers) are still floating around the outskirts of "the conversation". A nomination for Milo Machado Graner (Anatomy of a Fall), so memorable as the blind son of Sandra Huller in the year's most popular international picture, is the one true shocker that you can almost talk yourself into believing if you're not careful. 

You can see the full list of final predictions in every category here. Click on the category titles for the full chart of predictions and potential spoilers. The charts will come down Tuesday in the early AM for revisions to reflect the actual nominations.

Comments

[Fabio Dantas Flappers]

Here we go again...

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURE

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Wish Dream: "May December".
Get out of here: "Barbie"

BEST DIRECTOR

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Chris Nolan, Oppenheimer

Wish Dream: Todd Haynes, May December

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Wish Dream: Jessica Chastain, Memory

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cilliam Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Wish Dream: Peter Sarsgaard, Memory (yes, he's leading)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Julianne Moore, May December
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Wish Dream: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It's Me Margaret

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Wish Dream: Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers

So, fasten your seatbelts; it's going to be a bumpy morning.

[Fabio Dantas Flappers]

Nat,

You're right about Milo Machado Graner (Anatomy of a Fall).
A nomination in some place between de Tavira and Castle-Huges?
Who knows...

[Mr Ripley79]

The season has really begun now you've chimed in

I'll just do the acting

Actor

Murphy won GG and is in the Best Pic frontrunner,underappreciated

DiCaprio I wanted to vote against him but he's Leo and is his films Lead

Giamatti Film well liked,well liked awarded actor but never Oscar,his time

Cooper real person,directed him and Carey to career bests

Wright peaked just at the right time,long respected career.

Alt Domingo fine in the film but lone nominees rarely pan out in tight races

Actress

Bening passion project,does most of her own swimming,Foster chemistry,she's overdue

Huller the foreigh performance everyone falls for,a good year.

Mulligan real person,end scenes are tragic,keeps getting better and better

Robbie leads the biggest film of 2023 how can they not,despite comedy/silly bias,Gosling heat.

Stone partnership with Yorgos,out there turn,she keeps improving too.

Alt Gladstone the Amy Adams shock snub

S/Actor

De Niro co leading legend,they love villains

Sessa breakout,stole Meltons early praise and heat,lead but you know how it goes.

Dafoe Oscar beloved veteran,overdue,the make up helps,more sympathetic than co star Mark.

Downey Jr GG winner and makes good on acting promise of early 90's,clip ready scenes

Gosling inspired turn,co lead,early critical love.

Alt Ruffalo overdue fearless actor getting a career comeback

Supp Actress

Randolph winner and so good in the film,warm cherrytastic.

Foster settled in early as best in show,welcome back honours,better than Annette.

Pike hilarious line readings,the British vote,slightly undervalued.

Blunt supportive wife to genius always works,about time too but why for this role?

Ferrara the monologue plain and simple,v well liked.

Alt Brookes in Oprahs shadow but manages her own beats or Moore.

[bvrs90]

McAdams and her film remind me of Joan Allen and THE UPSIDE OF ANGER back in 2005. Actresses doing terrific work that should have gained them many citations, but have suffered due to the unfortunate early releases of their films — not to mention that their movies’ tones are lighter than the more serious Oscar stuff.

[KyleD]

Nathaniel,

About Glenn Howerton (Supporting Actor contender for BlackBerry):
"IFC isn't known for big campaigning and even the Spirit nod didn't happen."

This is incorrect, as Glenn Howerton did indeed receive a Spirit Nomination:

Erika Alexander – American Fiction as Coraline
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction as Clifford "Cliff" Ellison
Noah Galvin – Theater Camp as Glenn Winthrop
Anne Hathaway – Eileen as Rebecca
GLENN HOWERTON – BlackBerry as Jim Balsillie
Marin Ireland – Eileen as Rita Polk
Charles Melton – May December as Joe Yoo
Da'Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers as Mary Lamb
Catalina Saavedra – Rotting in the Sun as Señora "Vero" Verónica
Ben Whishaw – Passages as Martin

[Peter]

My final predicts vary only slightly:

Directors branch zags and matches the DGA 5.

DiCaprio is in and Wright is the surprise miss.

Cruz is in over Ferrera

Sessa and Ruffalo over Dafoe and Brown

[cal roth]

I am not a fan of Anatomy of a Fall, but there's a great supporting actor performance in it and it's not the kid. It's the prosecutor. He got the hint from the movie's title and went full George C. Scott. He's brilliant

[DAVID S]

It sucks that BARBIE got pushed to Adapted Screenplay. That probably deprives ARE YOU THERE GOD?, IT'S ME MARGARET its best shot at an Oscar nomination. Still rooting for Rachel McAdams though. This is miles better than her previously nominated work in SPOTLIGHT.

[Antônio]

Director: Gerwig out, Triet in.
Actor: Domingo out, Keoghan in.
Actress: Robbie and Mulligan out, Bening and Lee in.
Sup. Actor: Brown, Dafoe and De Niro out, Sessa, Ruffalo and Melton in.
Sup. Actress: Blunt and Ferrera out, Pike and Cruz in.

[Travis C]

Like so many others, I am going with the PGA for my Picture predictions.

However, my "no guts no glorty predictions"

- FERRARI overperforms in the tech cateories, at the expense of OPPENHEIMER (resulting in BARBIE being the overall nominations leader)

- the social media campaign works, and Keoghan gets in Actor, at the expense of Wright.

- GODLAND and PERFECT DAYS get in International Film (I admit this is mostly wishful thinking, but it has managed to convince my logical mind that it can happen)

- Howerton gets in Supporting Actor

- AIR gets in Original Screenplay

- BEAU IS AFRAID gets into Makeup and Hair

[Tony L]

ok, so whatever, here are my predictions which are a mix of what I DESPERATELY want to see and also some things that i can't deny. I understand that with my predictions there is one movie that i am predicting that will be completely snubbed, but oh well, these are MY predictions and MINE ALONE LOL ;) Gotta have fun with them right?!?

PICTURE
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
May December
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things

DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
Andrew Haigh - All of Us Strangers
Chris Nolan - Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall

ACTOR
Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott - All of Us Strangers
Jeffery Wright - American Fiction
Teo Yoo - Past Lives

ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee - Past Lives
Natalie Portman - May December
Emma Stone - Poor Things

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jamie Bell - All of Us Strangers
Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Charles Melton - May December
Paul Mescal - All of Us Strangers

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Jodie Foster - Nyad
Claire Foy - All of Us Strangers
Julianne Moore - May December
Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

ENJOY!! :)

[Ryan T.]

Do we think ORIGIN will show up anywhere? And if so, anywhere big? It seems like it was getting an "Andrea Riseborough" push during voting week. The only place it could happen would Actress and Adapted Screenplay, but probably unlikely due to the competition already.

[Fabio Dantas Flappers]

Ryan T,
No. I think "Origin" will be completely ignored.
The same for "Napoleon", "The Color Purple" and "Rustin".

[Frank Zappa]

@ F.D.F.

Those four films will get a total of five nominations between them. Maybe six.

[Gallavich]

NGNG:

Kōji Yakusho best actor

Fallen Leaves best original screenplay

0 nominations for Anatomy of a fall

[Michael R]

This will be the third time in five years where Foy gives the year's Best Supporting Actress performance and is snubbed. I hope I am wrong.

[Michael R]

And, having just seen All Of Us Strangers, how is Andrew Scott not a lock? And why didn't the BAFTA jury save him? What a beautiful performance.

[Edwin]

Just a few predictions:

Poor Things slightly underperforms, missing Director (Lanthimos replaced by Triet), BOTH of its Supporting Actor contenders, and at least one tech category, maybe Editing.

The Holdovers slightly overperforms with 7 nominations.

Barbie and Oppenheimer tie for most nominations with 11 each.

[DK]

I haven’t seen Poor Things yet, but it strikes me as a film people respect but don’t love the way it was meant to be loved. Like, for a film that weird and stylized to “succeed” on its own terms, it needs to dominate the culture the way Everything Everywhere All at Once Did—and you don’t see that happening. That’s why it’s been soft in the supporting categories, etc.

I think I would add Alexander Payne and Dominic Sessa to your predictions—finally saw The Holdovers and it’s such an easy movie to love.

I also don’t see Saltburn getting zero nominations. I’m surprised Fennell hasn’t registered at all in screenplay given that she won for a weaker script. In order of likelihood I would rank Saltburn’s category chances:

1. Pike (at Foster's expense)
2. Picture (big category, more room for shake-ups)
3. Screenplay (More likely if Pike +/or Screenplay also get attention)
4. Keoghan (Actor just feels too crowded but maybe?)

[jules]

"Greta Gerwig (if they turn their nose up with jealousy at her incredible success)"

Right! I am going to be so annoyed if Gerwig doesn't get in. Barbie was her vision, and it wouldn't have been as successful with any other director.

I like both The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall, but it's pretty easy to imagine another director developing a similar film from those screenplays. The vision behind the camera is not unique.

[Joe G.]

What I keep thinking about is, what's the film that will over perform? We usually get one (e.g., Judas and the Black Messiah, etc.). And sometimes we get one that over performs with a specific branch (Being the Ricardos in acting, etc.). I think the contenders for that are American Fiction, All of Us Strangers, Saltburn, Ferrari, and KOFTM. But, I'm not so certain any of those will overperform in the acting categories.

I do think Justine Triet has a real shot in the director race. I also think that if Sessa makes it in, Payne will too.

I think Jodie Foster is in, but vulnerable. Even if Annette doesn't score, the fact that her film was competing in both categories makes her a strong lone nominee. And, I think people will be happy to have her back (ala Anthony Hopkins getting a supporting nom for Popes after decades of being ignored).

Lastly, all season long I've thought of Carey Mulligan as holding the Ana De Armas/Vanessa Kirby/Melissa McCarthy role. The person who keeps getting nominated, but has no chance to win. I do wonder if that could actually be Annette and we see Carey Mulligan get snubbed?

[Mr Ripley79]

Joe G I'd never thought of Bening replacing Mulligan but as good she always is there is no passion for her Maestro performance not the kind of passion the other contenders have inc Bening and Greta Lee.

She's that solid nominee who gets in everywhere but has to smile and wear great dresses most of the season.

I do sense she can win Bafta with Maestro overperforming and after the trouble last year with her name being called instead of Kerry Condon.

[M B]

I think so many people are sleeping on Anatomy of a Fall. I think it’s peaking at the right time!

[NATHANIEL R]

MB -- if it overperforms I hope studios realize (YET AGAIN -- THEY ALWAYS FORGET) that October is a pretty great time to release strong international cinema. Those films usually need time to build and so many of them try the last second of December or the qualifying route.

[Claran912]

My predictions:

Best Pic:
Same as PGA 10
Hopediction: All of Us Strangers

Best Dir:
Gerwig
Glazer
Lanthimos
Nolan
Payne
Hopediction: Triet or Song

Yes, my NGNG will be Scorsese misses!

Best Actor:
Cooper
Domingo
Giamatti
Murphy
Wright
Hopediction: Scott

Best Actress:
Gladstone (although I feel like goin NGNG on her & slot her in supporting, lol)
Huller
Mulligan
Robbie
Stone
Hopediction: Lee

Best Supp Actor:
DeNiro
Downey Jr
Gosling
Ruffalo
Sessa
Hopediction: Melton

Best Supp Actress:
Blunt
Brooks
Moore
Pike
Randolph
Hopediction: Foy

Best Org Screenplay:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Maestro
May December

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Hopediction: All of Us Strangers

NGNG tt Killers of the Flower Moon misses