Team Experience - Final Oscar Prediction

by Christopher James

Who will win big at the Oscars?Tomorrow morning the Oscar nominations will be revealed at 5:30 a.m. PST / 8:30 a.m. EST / 1:30 p.m. GMT / 9:30 p.m. CST. With just one day left, it’s time for the members of the Film Experience team to make their final predictions, as Nathaniel did the other day.

It’s going to be a tight race for most nominations between our frontrunners - Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie and Poor Things. All have the possibility to get over 10 nominations each. Will the Oscars default for its Best Picture nominees across the board, or will we get some interesting shockers up and down the ballot?

Take a look after the jump for each of the team’s predictions. Please click on any of the prediction images to get a larger look at what each writer predicted...

Best Picture Predictions

One thing is clear… Oppenheimer is the clear frontrunner as we head into the nominations phase of the awards race. Every single Film Experience writer placed the film at #1 in their predictions. There is less consensus on what is number two, with writers citing Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, Poor Things and The Holdovers. All of those films are included in the predictions of all Film Experience writers, including Anatomy of a Fall. With six slots sewn up, the remaining four slots are occupied by predicted, yet vulnerable films. American Fiction, Past Lives and The Zone of Interest are all predicted by eight out of nine writers while Maestro is predicted by seven out of nine. If one or more of those films miss, either Saltburn, Air, The Color Purple or Origin are predicted to be a surprise nominee.

Best Director Predictions

It’s a race between Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese for Best Director, and Nolan is clearly the favorite. They are the only two directors that show up on every predicted list. The field is likely to be filled out by Yorgos Lanthimos, Greta Gerwig and Jonathan Glazer; however, each of them have some vulnerability in the field. Justine Triet appears to be the most likely person to enter the lineup if one of them were to falter, followed by Alexander Payne, who was cited at the DGA Awards.

Best Actress Predictions

The Best Actress category has mostly firmed up, with Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone competing for the win, while Sandra Hüller and Margot Robbie feel mostly secure for a nomination, according to our writers. Now who will fill the fifth slot? The most likely candidate is Carey Mulligan for Maestro. However, some feel that she could be snubbed in favor of Greta Lee for Past Lives or Fantasia Barrino for The Color Purple.

Best Actor Predictions

Similarly, the Best Actor field has narrowed to an expected five - Cilian Murphy, Paul Giamatti, Bradley Cooper, Jeffrey Wright and Colman Domingo. Of the five, Domingo seems to be the one who is most vulnerable to be left out on Oscar nomination morning. The most likely person to replace him would be Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon, though Andrew Scott could also surprise for All of Us Strangers.

Best Supporting Actress Predictions

While the acting races have thinned out, the supporting fields are chock full of possibilities. The only sure thing in the category is Da’Vine Joy Randolph, who has won all the major precursors. Emily Blunt and Danielle Brooks are both pretty assured for nominations, appearing on all but one writer’s predictions. The final two spots could go to seven potential women. SAG nominee Penélope Cruz has five mentions and a strong shot at a nomination. Jodie Foster has a slew of major precursor nominations for Nyad and is currently in fifth place. Still, many other women who were cited by precursors or critics prizes have a shot at bumping Cruz or Foster out of the lineup, such as Rosamund Pike, Julianne Moore, America Ferrera, Sandra Hüller and Rachel McAdams.

Best Supporting Actor Predictions

Since winning the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, Robert Downey Jr. has moved to the top of all but one writer’s predictions list. The only other secure nomination all writers agree on is Ryan Gosling for Barbie. From there, the two Poor Things men are in third and fourth place, but far from secure. Robert De Niro rounds out the predicted lineup, but young talents like Charles Melton and Dominic Sessa have just as many mentions as the legendary De Niro. Meanwhile, don’t count out Sterling K. Brown, who is predicted by three writers for American Fiction. In short, all eight men have a very viable shot at earning an Oscar nomination.

Best Adapted and Original Screenplay Predictions

The biggest change in this category has been the Barbie swap. Throughout the season, Barbie had been running in the Original Screenplay category. Recently, it switched to the Adapted Screenplay category and the category now has just as many contenders for the win as it has contenders for the nomination. All five of the predicted nominees have at least one writer who ranked it as number one on their prediction. There’s a chance that one of the five Best Picture nominees in that category gets a surprise snub and All of Us Strangers steals that final slot.

With Barbie’s absence, the Original Screenplay has more of a race for that fifth and final spot. The team feels confident in nominations for The Holdovers, Anatomy of a Fall and Past Lives. All but one writer is predicting May December earns a nomination. For that final position, a pair of divisive films - Saltburn and Maestro - hope to fend off the well-liked early-in-the-year film Air.

Best Animated Feature Predictions

The Animated Feature category is a tight fight between The Boy and the Heron and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, both of which are the only two films predicted by all Film Experience writers. Disney’s Elemental sits comfortably in third place, predicted by all but one writer. The final two spots could go to seven different films. The coming-of-age anime film Suzume has the best chance, according to the group. From there, the box office juggernaut The Super Mario Bros. Movie is expected to round out the category. Netflix has a pair of contenders, with Nimona having a better shot than Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget. Other more indie contenders include The Peasants and Robot Dreams. Finally, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem could ride good reviews to a surprise nomination.

Best Documentary Feature Predictions

Of the fifteen shortlisted movies, eight have landed on at least one writer’s predicted lineup. American Symphony landed at the top of five writers’ predictions, while it's entirely missing from another two writer’s lists. The only movie to wind up on every set of predictions is 20 Days in Mariupol, while Beyond Utopia and Four Daughters are on most lists. The fifth slot is most likely going to go to either Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie or The Eternal Memory, while there’s an outside chance for Bobi Wine: The People’s President or 32 Sounds.

Best International Feature Predictions

Nearly all of the shortlisted movies for International Feature have at least some support. The only guarantees are The Zone of Interest and Society of the Snow, while The Taste of Things and Fallen Leaves have very strong shots at nominations. It’s anyone’s game for the final position, with The Teachers’ Lounge, Perfect Days, Tótem and Four Daughters having the best shot.

Best Cinematography Predictions

Two Best Picture frontrunners are in the hunt for the Cinematography win - Oppenheimer and Poor Things. Following that, Killers of the Flower Moon and Maestro appear to be likely nominees in this category. Whatever takes the fifth slot will speak a lot to the narrative of the next phase. The Zone of Interest feels like the most likely nominee. However, Saltburn could earn the nomination, which will most likely happen if it picks up a few other nominations. If The Holdovers surprises here, it would pave the way for the film to be a surprise Best Picture winner.

Best Costume Design Predictions

Costume Design has three strong contenders that should feel confident come Oscar morning - Barbie, Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon. They have Best Picture heat and bold, iconic costumes that will stick out to the branch. The final two positions are a little more difficult to predict. The Color Purple and Oppenheimer are the most likely nominees, but they could easily be substituted for some bold work in movies that might not show up in many other places, such as Napoleon, Wonka and Priscilla.

Best Film Editing Predictions

Since the ACE Eddie Awards have not been announced, we don’t have a guild precursor to guide predictions. Instead, the safest bet is to assume that Film Editing will align with our Best Picture frontrunners. This is why only Oppenheimer is completely safe and the remaining four slots are likely to come from Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie or The Holdovers. It’s possible that the fast paced racing sequences could help Ferrari crack the editing lineup, or we could see The Zone of Interest over perform across the board.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling Predictions

Now that Oscars have narrowed the field to 10 movies, almost every mentioned movie has some support from our Film Experience. Only Ferrari and Napoleon are not predicted by any writer. Based on the Film Experience writers, Maestro is out in front, while Poor Things, Society of the Snow and Oppenheimer should expect nominations. For the final slot, the writers are giving the edge to the only other Best Picture contender - Killers of the Flower Moon. However, we often see lone nominees in the Best Makeup field. That’s why Golda, The Last Voyage of the Demeter and Beau is Afraid all have the support of some writers.

Best Original Score Predictions

The Original Score race is all over the place, with Oppenheimer being the only safe call after Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins in this category. Robbie Robertson is widely expected to earn a posthumous nomination for Killers of the Flower Moon, predicted by all but one writer. Poor Things is vulnerable in third position, but is at the top of one writer’s prediction. From there, the last two spots are wildly open.

It’s hard to bet against John Williams, but it may be a stretch to see Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny earn a nomination after lukewarm reviews. Animated films have often done well here and many love the scores for The Boy and the Heron and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. This could be an early sign for who will win the Animated Feature race. Elemental is also in the hunt for a nomination here. Similarly, we could see support for some of the International Feature nominees, as The Zone of Interest and Society of the Snow are strong contenders for one of these spots.

Best Original Song Predictions

Barbie takes up three slots on the shortlist, but it can only claim a maximum of two nominations in the final category. All our writers agree that “What Was I Made For” and “I’m Just Ken” will be those two songs representing the film. From there, anything goes. After nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice awards, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin seems like a safe bet. One must always count on Diane Warren earning a nomination, which is why “The Fire Inside” is in fourth place for Flamin’ Hot. Rounding out the expected lineup is “It Never Went Away,” as American Symphony is favored in the documentary race and we often see documentaries show up here.

This category could be a place where Best Picture nominees rack up an extra nomination, which is why Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives ended up on some predictions. Having multiple citations on the shortlist isn’t always helpful. Vote splitting could prevent either of the songs from Flora & Son or The Color Purple from making the final five. Only one writer is predicting any song from the film and they’re giving the edge to “Superpower,” while both “High Life” and “Meet in the Middle” have the support of one writer.

Best Production Design Predictions

A quartet of Best Picture nominees are widely expected to dominate this category, with Barbie out front and Poor Things, Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon following. The last slot could go the haunting Auschwitz home in The Zone of Interest, Wes Anderson’s diorama world in Asteroid City, the bright musical version of the deep South in The Color Purple, the European wonderland of Wonka or the modernized regal estate of Saltburn.

Best Sound Predictions

Just like in Makeup & Hairstyling, the smaller shortlist has made writers more able to go out on a limb with predictions. Only Oppenheimer is predicted across all experts. Musicals and music-themed movies have often done well here, which is why Maestro is high among writers’ predictions, but it’s not guaranteed a spot. Among Best Picture contenders looking to pad their nomination count, Killers of the Flower Moon and The Zone of Interest have a bit of an edge over Barbie. The two other genres that often do well here are action and war movies. Car movies have done particularly well here, such as Ford v Ferrari, which bodes well for Ferrari this year. On the action front, The Killer and The Creator both could break in according to some writers. No one seems to have much faith in the latest Mission Impossible or Napoleon.

Best Visual Effects Predictions

The Visual Effects race is an interesting one to predict as only one movie on the shortlist is in major contention for Best Picture - Poor Things. In fact, most of the nominees are only major contenders in one or two other categories. The Creator and Godzilla Minus One are in the best place for nominations at the moment, while Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 looks to earn a nomination for Marvel. Society of the Snow earned the most mentions on the shortlist, which could give it quite a bit of momentum to break into the category. While summer blockbusters like Indiana Jones and Mission Impossible each have some support from Film Experience Writers, the biggest wild card is with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Only two other animated films have earned visual effects nominations, but the latest Spider-Verse film is a real visual stunner that could easily overcome animation bias to be the third.

Best Short Predictions (Animated, Documentary, Live Action)

Oscar pools are made or broken by the short film categories. There are some major filmmakers in contention this year, with both Wes Anderson (The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar) and Pedro Almodovar (Strange Way of Life) in contention for Live Action Short. The big story on the animation front is Disney bringing together all their animated characters together for the star studded Once Upon a Studio. Beware: name recognition only gets you so far in the notoriously hard to predict short categories. Nearly all the shortlisted films appeared on at least one writer’s predicted lineup. It will be interesting to see who winds up ahead when all is said and done.

What are your Oscar predictions? Let us know in the comments below.

Comments

[whunk (he/him)]

There's so little intrigue about who's going to win this year in most categories, and in the ones that there is some competition, it's still not the ones most deserving in the mix. I may just skip the ceremony.

[Wae Mest]

Um, you may want to check the times you've listed for the announcements. They don't make much (any) sense!

[Fabio Dantas Flappers]

Here we go again...

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTION

* BEST PICTURE

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Wish Dream: "May December".
Get out of here: "Barbie"

* BEST DIRECTOR

Justine Triet, "Anatomy of a Fall"
Alexander Payne, "The Holdovers"
Martin Scorsese, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Bradley Cooper, "Maestro"
Chris Nolan, "Oppenheimer"

Wish Dream: Todd Haynes, "May December"

* BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, "Maestro"
Paul Giamatti, "The Holdovers"
Barry Keoghan, "Saltburn"
Cilliam Murphy, "Oppenheimer"
Jeffrey Wright, "American Fiction"

Wish Dream: Peter Sarsgaard, "Memory"

* BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, "Nyad"
Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Sandra Hüller, "Anatomy of a Fall"
Carey Mulligan, "Maestro"
Emma Stone, "Poor Things"

Wish Dream: Jessica Chastain, "Memory"

* BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe, "Poor Things"
Robert De Niro, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Robert Downey Jr., "Oppenheimer"
Ryan Gosling, "Barbie"
Dominic Sessa, "The Holdovers"

Wish Dream: Jamie Bell, "All of Us Strangers"

* BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Emily Blunt, "Oppenheimer"
Jodie Foster, "Nyad"
Julianne Moore, "May December"
Rosamund Pike, "Saltburn"
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, "The Holdovers"

Wish Dream: Rachel McAdams, "Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret."

* BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Justine Triet, "Anatomy of a Fall"
David Hemingson, "The Holdovers"
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, "Maestro"
Samy Burch, "May December"
Celine Song, "Past Lives"

Wish Dream: Hayao Miyazaki, "The Boy and the Heron".
It's a half-wish dream, 'cause the 5 predicted are perfect.

* BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Cord Jefferson, "American Fiction"
Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Christopher Nolan, "Oppenheimer"
Tony McNamara, "Poor Things"
Jonathan Glazer, "The Zone of Interest"

Wish Dream: Kelly Fremin Craug, "Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret."

So, fasten your seatbelts; it's going to be a bumpy morning.

[Claran912]

My predictions:

Best Pic:
Same as PGA 10
Hopediction: All of Us Strangers

Best Dir:
Gerwig
Glazer
Lanthimos
Nolan
Payne
Hopediction: Triet or Song

Yes, my NGNG will be Scorsese misses!

Best Actor:
Cooper
Giamatti
Colman
Murphy
Wright
Hopediction: Scott

Best Actress:
Gladstone (although I feel like goin NGNG & slot her in supporting, lol)
Huller
Mulligan
Robbie
Stone
Hopediction: Lee

Best Supp Actor:
DeNiro
Downey Jr
Gosling
Ruffalo
Sessa
Hopediction: Melton

Best Supp Actress:
Blunt
Brooks
Moore
Pike
Randolph
Hopediction: Foy

Best Org Screenplay:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Maestro
May December

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Hopediction: All of Us Strangers

NGNG tt Killers of the Flower Moon misses!

[DK]

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