10 Big Surprises of Nomination Morning: From Batman to Ben

Before you can ever delve deep into the nominated fields, you have do the requisite double takes to process the surprises. Herewith the most shocking turns of events this morning. If I haven't included something you found truly eyebrow-raising and faith-shaking ('how can I ever turst the pundits again?!') make sure to share it in the comments. 

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10 The Supporting Actor List is All Previous Winners
In the entire history of the Oscars, I can't recall any acting category having been composed entirely of men or women who already had Oscars. At least one newbie always manages to join the celebrated. Other than that it's not a surprising list really given that all five of the men had precursor support (typical) and two are leads masquerading as supporting (typical) and all are veterans (typical). This is the kindest category to acting veterans and the most impervious to actual excitement. Year in and year out, it's the dullest major Oscar category even when the field to choose from is brimming with electricity. And to think we could have had a rising star playing an android, a rising star singing and crying his heart out, a rising star shaking what his mama gave him while stoned in Mexico, an A list reaching a career peak with nothing but a G string and a great great performance, and a baker turned actor among the dozens of possibly more thrilling choices.

The Legend Ends... and so do Batman Oscar Dreams09 The Dark Knight Rises with Zero Nominations
It's a beautiful symmetry. Batman f***ed Oscar over by sending them into a tizzy of low-confidence voting rule changes after the infamous 2008 snub (presumably to include more populist choices in Best Picture) and now Oscar has f***ed Batman over by ignoring The Dark Knight Rises altogether -- this despite the series being very popular with voters since long before Chris Nolan took over.  

Eight more increasingly startling morning alarms after the jump.

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I Did Surprisingly Well on My Predictions. And You?

Though I feared a complete and utter breakdown of my predictive skills this year, as it turns out I did about the same as usual which is quite wonderful given how difficult those fifth spots were this year and how much you had to chuck statistical expectations to get it right (Riva and Haneke and Amour had so little precursor support but I had a feeling from way back that they'd find their way in, that they'd be "sticky" enough as it were in the memory)

The Big Eight in the high profile categories Picture, Director, Acting and Screenplays I had an 81% degree of accuracy with 36/44 nominees guessed correctly. 
All Categories Absent the Shorts 77% (83/107)
All Categories Including The Shorts 74%  (91/122)

Last Minute Mistakes - I had a perfect predicted set in Production Design until I swapped out Life of Pi at the last second, thinking that Django Unchained might win a farewell honor for J Michael Riva who died during production. And last last night I stated on Twitter my regret that I didn't predict Waltz over Redmayne in Supporting Actor (a no guts no glory call that gave me no glory...). I would've been 100% there too though I remain confused that Waltz won more attention than DiCaprio or Jackson whose work in tandem is the best the highly uneven Django has to offer.

Categories I'm Most Proud Of - It was a cinch to predict Adapted Screenplay this year -- interview coming up with one of the nominees -- so my 100% guesswork there is no biggie and nothing to shout about. But I'm pleasantly surprised that I went 9 for 9 in Best Picture for two reasons. The first is that since I had placed them in if 7... if 8... if 9... order and all 9 lined up that I was spot on and the second and even better reason is that apart from about ½ of Silver Linings Playbook and about ¼ of Django Unchained I think they're all really good movies and six of them are on my own top ten list (which has been delayed due to all this Oscar madness)

I knew Colleen Atwood's death-fetish royalty porn wouldn't fail in the Costume category

I'm also pleased that I went 4 for 5 in so many categories (13 in all!) but particularly the difficult cases of Actress and Costume Design (missing only Mirror Mirror - I had predicted A Royal Affair instead since they often like royalty porn and one foreign film in that shortlist), and Foreign Film (I missed only "No" but I'm THRILLED about the nomination since it's such a great movie) arguably my 3 top interests as categories go. I am not nearly as well versed in Documentaries and Sound Editing so I was stunned to call 4 of those 5 correctly too.

Silver LInings Playbook is the first film since 1981 to receive nominations in ALL acting categoriesMy Worst Categories This Year - Like everyone else the shocking Best Director lineup threw me (3/5) but at least I got the Hooper snub / Haneke in mix right but where I made the biggest judgement call errors was Supporting Actress where I let my Nicole Kidman mania persuade me that they'd preserve her wild genius abandon (the Globe & SAG nods are wondrous though) and I confess that I didn't consider Jacki Weaver to be in the running at all. I am a huge Jacki Weaver fan -- she offered to adopt me during the Animal Kingdom campaign, maybe my fondest memory of that awards year -- but I didn't think that Silver Linings Playbook gave her enough to do to win #1 placements. 

But my absolute worst prediction field this year was Animated Short. Many people don't predict this category but I predict all categories and the shorts can be really tough. I only corrected guessed 2 of the 5 and am saddened that the eye-popping fascinating Eagleman Stag and the hilariously rauncy Tram didn't make the cut. 

Where were you most mistaken and which categories do you feel proudly totes psychic about?

The Bipolar Silver Linings Playbook

Hey lovelies. Beau here with a recent trip to the David O. Russell multiverse, which has gotten tamer than I once remembered it.

I understood Pat Solitano, Jr. and Sr., their individual and collective struggles in life. Which isn’t to imply that both are readily and consistently sympathetic characters, far from it. But as I made a pitstop at the Landmark Cinemas in Los Angeles on Saturday, on my way home from a quick rendezvous with old friends, I made it a point to sneak in while I could to catch this film. All things considered, the talent involved was what intrigued me. Who better to direct a film about one individual’s struggle with his anger than David O. Russell, who experienced a nice bout of controversy years ago when videos of him and Lily Tomlin getting into it on the set of I ❤ Huckabees rose from the ashes? Who better to take on the role of a young man suffering an identity crisis and highs and lows than Cooper; he's been stuffed and compartmentalized into so many boxes in the industry that by this point the dude should be dead from paper cuts alone? 

It’s only too ironic then, that Silver Linings Playbook is a bipolar affair...

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Yes, No, Maybe So: "Silver Linings Playbook"

I apologize ahead of time for not including the trailer we are about to discuss in the post but I have a firm policy against ads ON ads. So when movie trailers come with ads SAY NO. I will not watch a commercial in order to see a commercial. Hollywood has tricked people into thinking that trailers are free cliff-note movies but no, they are just commercials. So, I won't. I won't! And all the embeds without ads were fuzzy so I can't. I can't.

Wait, I found one just as I was about to post this. Okay embedded. For you.

"Calm down crazy," quoth Jennifer Lawrence (and the Sassy Gay Friend before her)

But yes Silver Lining Playbook trailer is upon us and so we must break it down with the Yes, No, Maybe So™ system.

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Yes, No, Maybe So: "The Five-Year Engagement"

Amir here with a new edition of Yes, No, Maybe So. Today’s film is The Five-Year Engagement from the Apatow production machine, starring Emily Blunt and Jason Segel, who also co-wrote the film. 

Yes...

• JACKI WEAVER EVERYONE! The Oscar-nominated Aussie surely deserves more demanding roles but at least she didn’t totally fade away as we feared, given her age and outsider status. The movie also has Mimi Kennedy who never fails to make me laugh out loud. After Midnight in Paris, this looks more than a bit like typecasting to me, but if she can find a way to be as funny as in In the Loop we’re in for big laughs.

•Jason Segel’s been having a good few years after he forgot Sarah Marshall. He’s actually proved to be a better comedy writer than an actor. His most recent feature is, of course, in theatres now (The Muppets) and it’s been extremely well-received. Can we assume his hot streak will continue?

No, Maybe So... and the trailer after the jump.

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