Oscar Excitement Rises With Magazines / Trailers

A lot of folks are dissing this trailer spoof whatsit heralding the oncoming Oscar but I think that's just a sympton of "you can't please everyone anyone" on the internet / when it comes to Oscar. I'm sorry but I ♥ the moment that they open the briefcase and the golden glow emerges. That shiny naked gold man brings me joy every damn year. It's true! Even when I hate him I love him.

Sure the ad is meaningless / not hilarious but it's kind of fun in a stupid ha-HA way. You were expecting cutting edge comedy with Billy Crystal?

That said I will readily admit that it is a bit odd to have former co-stars of Transformers as your key actors. Nothing against Josh and Megan but no A listers were available? (Remember when Robin Williams was A list? That's as dusty a notion as Billy Crystal hosting the Os--- uh, never mind.)

In much more euphoric Oscar news... I am planning to marry Entertainment Weekly's new Oscar cover. It was love at first sight. It's my favorite Oscar cover since, oh, ever. I considered actually buying it and writing it up like a live-blog magazine read but I couldn't find it anywhere in my neighborhood. Supposedly it hit newsstands yesterday.

Clooney and Viola Davis are both such class acts and if that's who were celebrating, can it be February 24th tonight, please?

She’s amazed at how the Best Actress race is shaping up this year. “Can you wrap your mind around someone throwing you into the ring with Meryl Streep?” she marvels. “I just don’t understand the competition thing. How can you compare two actors’ performances? How do you say one is better than the other?”

“I know how you do it,” Clooney says to Davis. “You have to play Margaret Thatcher and she has to play the maid.”

And yet... In regards to the frontrunner for Best Actor. The only thing that could make this cover better was if it was Brad Pitt in the tux.

While I love Clooney as a celebrity as much as anyone does, he already has an Oscar and I think if we're in the mood for one of those Movie Star Appreciation Nights come late February, we've got a more deserving idol right next door in Brad Pitt! He gave not one but two career best performances this year! And though that blurb might not mean much coming from many loudmouth journos, it means a lot coming from me since Brad Pitt is one of my all time favorite actors. Thus I am able to say "career best" without any of the not so subtle "I was never impressed before" connotations that "career best" citations arrive with. I think he's been sorely undervalued (as an actor) his entire career.

Oscar Prediction Updates & Calendar

As someone who is absolutely not feeling it today -- why do some days torment us, so? -- I thought I'd best *finally* finish updating the Oscar predictions. So I'm working on it. As ever I'm sure you'll tell me exactly where I'm right and wrong.

Even though I'm not technically feeling it today, I am most definitely feeling it in terms of the Oscars this year. It's SO exciting for once. Lots of confusion in each category I think. Just the way we like it. If predictions aren't difficult, they aren't fun.

Picture I'm guessing 8 nominees though I think Moneyball is stronger and War Horse weaker than my chart suggests. Though perhaps this is wishful thinking? 
Director If Martin Scorsese, Woody Allen and Steven Spielberg are all nominated here, that would be madness. I need to do the statistics but I am pretty sure that that would be the most previously nominated group ever assembled in Best Director since they're the 3 most nominated living / working directors. But as of this writing I don't think Spielberg is in.
Actress Tilda and Glenn aren't invulnerable for very different reasons. Rooney Mara was surging while ballots went out but it's not really an Oscar type role so who knows? And then there's still Charlize (just interviewed) sneering at all of them in her Hello Kitty shirt. Everyone else is toast.
Actor I'm taking a risk because I keep hearing Michael Shannon's name even though his movie is basically gone. But then so is Leo's.

Shannon got one nomination by surprise. Can he pull off surprise #2?

Supporting Actress I still think this category is VERY difficult to predict. Someone with a lot of precursor attention isn't going to make it. People always say it's easy to predict this one until you remind them that six women have won plentiful precursor attention. Six ≠ Five.
Supporting Actor totally diffuse if you ask me beyond the Branagh-Plummer-Brooks triangle. Wouldn't it be a hoot if Corey Stoll or Viggo Mortensen made it in?
Screenplay Original is still super crowded and impossible to figure with at least five major contenders ineligible for the recent Writer's Guild noms. Adapted is easier but not completely simple.

CALENDAR FUN!
Today, I got the hugest package in the mail. I mean it was enormous. And this thin calendar to your right was all that was inside. HA! Here's to killing trees for nothing! But it did immediately remind me that I need to nail down my calendar for 2012. I want it to be the best year ever here at The Film Experience. I really do. The Bext Exotic Marigold Hotel promisese to open on May 4th. In worse news, The Wettest Country has been moved back AGAIN. Now they're saying August. Let's face it: that movie is never going to open. If both do open as intended who knows. Oscar 2012? The Help, The Tree of Life and Midnight in Paris, all summer releases, are still in play for 2011's race.

Here's some dates you should know about as we move forward into our busiest month.

JANUARY DATES

• Sat. 7th National Society of Film Critics... ending critic prizes.
• Mon. 9th Directors Guild Nominations ... which was once the most accurate predictor of anything-ever as to what would be Best Picture nominated. The last few years have made those statistics useless with all the changes as to # of nominees.
• Thur. 12th BFCA "CRITICS CHOICE" AWARDS (yes, we'll live blog or something)
• Fri. 13th Oscar Ballots due. Nothing on this day or forward can affect who gets nominated. 
• Sat. 14th LAFCA Awards Ceremony (not televised)
• Sun. 15th GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS (yes, we'll live blog or something)
• Mon. 16th ACE Eddie Award Nominations (Editing) and we'll do Oscar chart updates .
• Wed. 18th BAFTA nominations - not the fake ones.
• Thurs. 19th Costume Designers Guild Nominations
• Sat. 21st Producers Guild Award Ceremony (not televised)
• Sun. 22nd FOLLIES closes on Broadway... heading to Los Angeles but without Bernadette Peters. *sniffle* Do not miss it! Oh and also this is the day when we'll post our final predictions for nominations in all Oscar categories.
• Tues. 24th OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED
• Sun. 29th SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS (Yes, we'll live blog or something)

 What are you looking forward to? 
Oscar Prediction comments? 

BAFTA Long List Losses

I've said it before and I'm forced to say it again. I'm *so* glad that the American Academy does not publish a long list. i.e. the semi-finals. You see, It's so much more bearable / engaging when you can imagine that straight up great achievements or achievements you really responded to personally but you knew might have trouble rallying huge swaths of support were in 6th or 7th place or 10th place in voting. The way BAFTA does it, however, you are forced to understand that Oscar buzz is everything and Super Size Mediocrities will always triumph over critical darlings or more challenging Art.

Take the Best Picture categories for a prime example. Notice that Weekend for example, a very British and very acclaimed film is not one of their "outstanding" homegrown products (they might want to check the reviews again) and notice that auteurist films frequently called masterpieces by their fans (The Tree of Life and Melancholia) are also absent. Other films ignored because you have to have space for The Lukewarmly Reviewed Biopics About Lady Actresses and Lady Politicians are... no, no. It's too horrible to start listing them!

Best Film The Artist, The Descendants, Drive, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Help, Hugo, The Ides of March, The Iron Lady, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, My Week with Marilyn, Senna, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse, and We Need to Talk About Kevin 

Outstanding British Film Arthur Christmas, Attack the Block, Coriolanus, The Guard, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Iron Lady, Jane Eyre, My Week with Marilyn, Senna, Shame, Submarine, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Tyrannosaur, War Horse, and We Need to Talk About Kevin 

BAFTA voters went crazy 4 My Week With Marilyn, longlisted many many times

Film Not in the English Language  Abel, As If I Am Not There, The Boy Mir – Ten Years in Afghanistan, Calvet,  Dhobi Ghat (Mumbai Diaries), Incendies, Little White Lies, Pina, Post Mortem, Potiche, Le Quattro Volte, A Separation, The Skin I Live In, Tomboy and The Troll Hunter

More long list looniness with commentary after the jump...

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The Link Menagerie

Stale Popcorn defines "Xanadusiasm" and we're all about it. Make it official, Websters.
Towleroad in which I make New Year's Resolutions for Hollywood since they keep having dumb ideas like remaking Carrie (1976) of all things. Just... NO.
Observer Rex Reed laments the many cultural departures of 2011 from La Liz to another Oz Munchkin.
Best Week Ever who knew that Michael Shannon had this much adorable cuteness in him?

THR Jessica Chastain coming to Broadway in 2012. I guess she wants the EGOT by 2017 or something. Over Achiever!
Some Came Running Glenn Kenny has a J. Hoberman top ten to mark the Village Voice's strange decision to dump their famous critic. 
Cinephilia & Sass has a letter to the fading James McAvoy... who does need his "Here I Am!" role surely. 
Acidemic If I were a TCM programmer... 

Your Movie Buddy shares his Oscar ballot. Kurt is also busy over at...
The House Next Door ...offering up Oscar prospects for The Tree of Life
Super Punch why your clothes don't look as good as in magazines (illustrated by Antonio Banderas)
Tom Shone wonders why Best Picture so rarely lands a Leading Acting Oscar to go with it anymore. Oddly, he seems to be complaining about it. Me, I love the spreading of wealth at the Oscars since the best film of any given year rarely has the best everything. 

Finally...
This week's most actressy event -- other than my interview with Charlize ;) -- is Nicks Flick Picks announcement of a Best Actress Birthday Party project. Here's the calendar and the first birthday party favor: Jane Wyman in The Glass Menagerie. Nick's been busy! In related news it's also Annie Hall's birthday today. Ms Diane Keaton turns 66. I'm itching for her to be in a good movie again so here's hoping one of her recently completed pictures works. It's not that she doesn't work.

Writers Guild Nominees and Their Oscar Competition

The Writers Guild of America nominations are always interesting to look at -- we love discovering what other writers admire --  but they are greatly overvalued in terms of Oscar prognostication. The tricky part is remembering what's not eligible. The Academy doesn't require you to be a member to receive nominations for your cinematic achievement. Some guilds do and the Writers Guild is notoriously strict about qualification. So several key Oscar-seeking movies were NOT eligible for these honors.

Bridesmaids won a WGA nomination but the Oscar shortlist is far more competitive.

Not Eligible, Therefore We Know Nothing About Their Oscar Prospects: 
(Original) Take Shelter, Martha Martha Marcy May Marlene, Beginners, The Artist, Shame, Margin Call, The Iron Lady, Rango, Melancholia, and Like Crazy
(Adapted) Drive, My Week With Marilyn, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Jane Eyre, Carnage, Albert Nobbs, and The Skin I Live In

 ... and quite a few of those -- especially the originals -- seem like definite threats in the Oscar Screenplay races. 

The WGA Nominations (Three Categories) are  AFTER THE JUMP

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